Adaptive foresight is applied by Abadie et al. to the highly uncertain environment of the European creative content industries as part of the European Perspectives on the Information society project.
a consortium of industry partners and the Interdiscipliinar Institute for Broadband Technology founded by the Flemish government.
and Maritime Affaair (Direction générale de l'Industrie, des Technologiie de l'information et des Postes, 2000) and of Industry (Ministère de l
consisting of representaative from trade and industry, the public sector and civil society. The final selection of themes was made by a stakeholder workshop.
http://www. ingentaconnect. com/content/beech/spp Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries: anticipating value chain transformations and need for policy action Fabienne Abadie,
Michael Friedewald and K Matthias Weber This paper discusses the approach adopted to carry out a techno-economic foresight on the creative content industries, within the European Perspectives on the Information society project.
The project succeeded in defining scenarios for the creative content industries, offering distinct trajectories and raising different policy challenges.
The global entertainment and media industries were estimated to be worth US$1, 255 billion in 2004, North Ameriic leading with a 44.4%share, Europe,
New distribution channels, like broadband internet and wireless communications are driving growth in this industry. Furthermore Europe's strong cultural heritage provides a sound basis for this sector
and demand side of the creative content industry. It is the symbolic, highly digitisable nature of the goods it produces combined T Fabienne Abadie (corresponding author) is at European Commisssio Directorate Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospectiiv Technological Studies, Edificio EXPO
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 20 with the creative environment in which content activiitie unfold that make the creative content sector a fertile ground for radical innovations or disruptions
The current and likely future dynamics of the creative content industries represent a major challeeng for the application of forward-looking methood to underpin
the EPIS project foressa the design and implementation of a combinatiio of methods to explore the future evolution of the creative content industries
Starting with a definition of the creative content industries we preseen our methodology, analysing its most important Fabienne Abadie is a scientific officer at the Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies workiin on techno-economic foresight studies and the impact of ICTS on the Information society.
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 21 elements and showing how the implementation of those elements in combination enables us to disentanngl the complexity of the disruptive forces influenccin a sector
when dealing with creative content industries is their diversity. The creative content sector comprises a wide range of heterogeneous activities with diverse levels of industrialiisatio
and media industries (where the value of the content is linked closely to its accuracy and timeliness).
and computer games) Culture and media industries (books, film, entertainment, TV, radio) Related industries and crafts (printing, musical instruments) Informal arts activities (amateur communities) Support
adapted from Wiesand and Söndermann (2005) Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 22 a mass audience.
In order to achieve our objective of delivering forwaardlooking intelligence on the future evolution of the creative content industries,
experts) Workshop (stakeholders) Workshop (restricted, client) Impact assessment Figure 2. Overview of methodology building blocks Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010
Having defined the industrial, business and technoloogica characteristics of the creative content sector and its sub-sectors,
and building trust and awareness are part Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 24 of the equation.
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 25 and related variants, uncertain issues, potential disrupttion and the likelihood of possible identified trends/issues.
No consensus could be reached for the theses printed in italics Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science
A few selected experts with a background in the creative content industries and/or scenario building were invited to join the projeec team for a two-day workshop.
Four future scenarios In developing the four scenarrio the workshop participants considered the impaac of ICT innovation, user behaviours and other factors on the transformation of the creative content industries.
In particular the following elements were deemed to play a fundamental role in shaping the creative content industries of tomorrow:
attitude towards creative content, demand Incumbents take it all Incumbents take it All the open innovation society Society meets industry IT is not cool,
get a life Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 27 promises associated with user created content,
Society meets industry: intermediate scenario between the previous two assuming that the creatiiv content sector is transformed rather than revolutionised.
including representatiive from some sub-sectors of the creative content industries, academia, policy-making etc. To structuur our discussion we followed the common elemeent used in step 3 to systematically describe our scenarios (global context and key drivers
but we also highlighted those key featuure likely to have implications for factors such as industry structure,
which in turn meant that no consenssu on the future of the creative content industries could be achieved.
which scenario were to be realised, with varying consequences for the developmmen of the creative content industries, in particcula in terms of growth, jobs, social inclusion or cultural diversity,
Key issues for the future success of the creative conteen industry Even though the scenarios reflect differrent often contradictory trends and uncertainties about the future of the creative content industry,
a number of important issues can be highlighted by looking across the scenarios. These issues may be technological,
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 28 Step 5: Policy analysis Our adaptive foresight on the creative content industrrie was concluded with a policy analysis,
Many of the policy issues linked to the evoluttio of the creative content industries are of a crosscutting nature (e g. skills
and Figure 5. Creative content goods, impact on industrial structure and key technologies Source: Mateos-García et al.
2008) Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 29 mediating between skills and demand for skills.
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 30 With regard to the impact assessment aspect of the methodology
The Future Evolution of the Creative Content Industries: Three Discussion papers. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publicatiion of the European communities (Scientific and Technical research series, EUR 23633 EN.
and the improvement of industrial competitiveness Develop technology and innovation policies Improve the co-operation among different stakeholders Develop the planning
but comes out on par on spending in sector or industry foresight efforts; Methods used: Four methods were particularly popular:
In Ireland this was the Industry Ministry while in Thailand it is the NSTDA. In Finland, the Parliamenntar Committee on the Future is supported by a national fund for R&d (SITRA-government investtment augmented by a significant Nokia share sale in the 1990s) as well as by government S&t focused agencies such as the TEKES, VTT
,(Minisstr of Trade and Industry) and the Academy of Finland, part of the Ministry of Education.
Most program expeert extolled the good relationships they had developed with industry leaders, advanced technollog firms or private sector advisors connected in some way to the national policy agenda and/or senior decision-makers.
Over the years the program went through numerous changes, in the host organization (from National Reseaarc Council 2002 2004, to Privy council office 2005 2006, to Industry Canada 2007 2008.
and professional levels of organizations and industrial domains affected by the foresight were able to be involved in the process,
Such shifts can result in new technological possibilitiies with potentially revolutionary impacts associated with changing innovation patterns, industry structurres and broader developments in society.
his interest diversified into industrial policy and S&t policy. He was the first director of Chula Unisearch, a business-oriented commerciallizatio unit of Chulalongkorn University and the direccto of the S&t development Program at Thailand Development Research institute.
2008) with policy recommendatiio was presented at the 34th APEC Industrial Sciennc and Technology Working group Meeting held in March 2009 in Mexico.
Paper presented at the 29th Meeting of APEC Industrial Science & Technology Working group (ISTWG), Singapore.
HE INDUSTRY THAT DEVELOPS informattio and communication technologies (ICT) has been challenged in various ways over the last few decades.
or sustain a leading market position in the ICT industry have increasinngl been forced into accelerated product developmeen
and which propagates the industry's‘push'perspectiive has dominated the theoretical debate for several decades.
However, from the 1960s on this industry-push perspective was challenged by more human-centred paradigms that largely reject this notion of technologgica determinism
The ROMAS project Project description and research setting ROMAS was funded by a consortium of industry partners (i e.
and new concepts developed by the mobile industry. This invenntor was used as background information to familiiariz the researchers with the possibilities of mobile technologies.
By combining all input sources (desk research, user research and consultatiio of industry partners), three types of applications were identified:
User-generated applications that were not being developed by the industry at the time of the reseaarch Applications that were mentioned by the users
and that were already being implemented by the industry. Applications that were mentioned not by the users in the study,
or being developed by the industry (push-driven). Results of stage 2: Concept evaluation Next, all the applications considered in the first phase were transformed into workable paper conceept
despite its limitte appeal to the panel members (Table 4). As the industry partners aimed to test the application
At this stage in particular, other factors were considered to be of greater importance to the decision to be taken by the project's industrial partneers These factors included some of the following:
-led approaches in the communications industry. Drawing on a number of theoretical frameworks that have studied the relationship between technology and users/society in greater depth,
Japan Government-sponsored cooperrativ R&d projects organized by Ministry of International Trade and Industry (1983 1989) 226 Selection correction:
2002), Switzerland Programme of promoting use of Computer Integrated Manufacturing Technologies (CIMT)( CIM Programme, 1990 1996) 463 Selection correction:
+for firms with less than 200 employees+for firms adopting CIMT for first time Lach (2002), Israel R&d grants from Office of Chief Scientist at Ministry of Industry and Trade (1990 1995) 325 Difference
+for firms with less than 200 employees+for firms with low intensity of CIMT use Görg andstrobl (2007), Ireland R&d grants from (Industrial Development Agency (IDA) Ireland and Forbairt
one-and-ahaal years is an adequate time lag between R&d and realization of R&d outcomes for most industries and for incremental innovations.
%The subsidized firms are characterized further by the industry affiliation and the number of employees in full-time equivalents (firm size.
This was the dominant group among subsidized firms in accordaanc with the importance of these capital goods industtrie for Swiss manufacturing with respect to generated value added,
%Both the distribution among industries and among firm size classes seem to be in accordance with the policy pursued by the CTI of promoting mainly small-and medium-sized enterprises in all sections of the economy;
age of firm(‘firm founded before 1996'),size of firm (dummy variables for six size classes), industry affiliation (dummy variables for three sub-sectors),
Further, subsidized firms represent a wide spectrum of manufacturing firms, the concentration on firms for machinery,
electroonic and instruments reflecting the current structure of Swiss manufacturing. The‘bottom-up'principle applied by the CTI for allocating funds seems to be quite effective.
20 49 employees-0. 31 Traditional manufacturing-0. 54 (0. 11)( 0. 10) 50 99 employees-0. 52 Traditional service industries
high-tech manufacturing; definition: high-tech manufacturing: chemistry, plastics, machinery, electrical machinery, electronics/instruments; modern service industries: banking/insurance, computer services;
other business services; traditional manufacturing: food/beverage/tobacco, textiles, clothing/leather; wood processing, paper, printing, glass/stone/clay, metal, metalworking, watches, other manufacturing, energy;
traditional service industries: wholesale trade, retail trade, transport/telecommunication, hotels/catering, personal services Reference region: Zurich Reference language:
Italian (continued) Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 74appendix (continued) Table A3.
2001) for the role of framework conditions for the evaluation of industry university collaboratioons and Polt and Streicher (2005) for the evaluation of large programmes such as the Framework programmes of the Europeea Union. 2. For overviews of Swiss
The effectiveness of government promotion of advanced manufacturing technologiie (AMT: an economic analysis based on Swiss micro data.
Matched-pair analysis based on business survey data to evaluate the policy of supporting the adoption of advannce manufacturing technologies by Swiss firms, KOF Working Paper No. 65, July 2002.
Science, Technology and Industry Board Innovatiio and Performance in the Global economy. Paris: OECD. Pointner, W and C Rammer 2005.
The effects of government industry R&d programmes on private R&d: The case of the Small Business Innovation research Programme.
11 strategic foresight exercises to enhance the competitiveenes of the Brazilian industrial sector in the global economy:
shoes, furniture, automotive, cosmetics, marine, industrial automation, civil construction, medical equipment, plastics, furniture and aeronautics..Strategic foresight for FINEP (the case study of this paper) and the Sa o
In order to hear the opinion of government authorities and representative leaders from industry and the national system of ST&I, about the system itself, FINEP, its performmanc and future expectations,
including 30 government, industry and academy Figure 4. FINEP SMP timeline: observation dimensions and facts related to Future challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 253 representatives.
The establishment of a foresight culture within organizattion or industries, which could result in a better decision-making process.
which relegate the scientific community and industry to secondary positions, even if individual scientiist can become very powerful in certain fields of expertise (cf.
the other three being agriculture, industry and national defense. Throughout the era, Chinese leaders have pointed to science as a key to economic progress and competitiveness, most recently through the concept of‘scientific development'and the launching of the indigennou innovation strategy (e g.
Plan National Key technologies R&d Program 1984 Foster key technologies to upgrade traditional industries and create new ones State Key Laboratory Program 1984 Support selected laboratories in universities,
S&t achievements State Key and New Product Program 1988 Support new high-tech products for key industries 9th Five-year Plan National Program
promote strategic industries, acquire proprietary core intellectual property rights, improve China's indigenoou innovation capability, and improve industrial competitiveenes and upgrade in general.
While the mission orientation has remained prominent throughout the history of the People's republic of china, there has been a trend towards increasing diversification of research priorities by including diffusion-but also excellenceorieente measures.
By strengthening innovation capacity in selected fields it aims to improve the international competitiveness of major industries.
aiming at promoting the development of high-tech industry and the use of S&t in rural economic development, respectively.
transferring research results to industry, providing S&t policy advice, and linking China into the international S&t community.
Although industrial actors especiaall large firms, were asked sometimes to provide input, such suggestions were paid not enough attention. 8
strengthening linkages between academic environments and industry, supporting high value-added industry, and strengthening China's international prestige.
to enable the restructuring of industry from low-tech to high-tech, allowing China to move up the value chain,
973 Projects) with programs for industrial development (Mega-engineering Projects) and sectoral technology programs on a more modest scale (Key technologies Programs, 863 Projects).
as the reforms of governance continue to stress the need for articulation of actors'interests, building new constituencies among academics, academic institutions and industry to tap into their interests,
The marginal role of industry, particularly privately owned enterprrises as a stakeholder is another weakness in the policy process.
Danish research Unit for Industrial Dynamics. Research priority setting in China. 269 Hao, X. 2008)‘ Science in China:
and particularly serve the national technological and industrial concerns, center our discussiio on the national institutions.
The Taiwanese biotechnology industry and the two sectors which adopt biotechnology (i e. pharmaceuticals and agriculture) provide an interesting case for our discussiion Historical records for the period 1945 2000 in Taiwan clearly show the process through which the three innovation systems,
A national innovation system focuses on the national development of technology and industries. The national frontiers draw the boundary of an innovation system.
The institutional actors, such as firms and industrial laboratories, universities and government laboratories, and their networks constitute the national innovation system (Nelson and Rosenberg 1993).
and mechanisms of a nation support technological and industrial innovattio within its borders (Nelson and Rosenberg 1993;
of a dynamic network interact in a specific economic or industrial arena which is under specific institutional infrastrucctures The interactions of the actors in the network are both market and non-market.
The Taiwanese government announced its first biotechnology policy, the‘Eight Key Industries'in 1982. After 1982, Taiwan started to have a biotechnology policy.
) Besides manufacturing intermediaries, some local firms imported higher-end intermediaries from countries, such as Japan and Germany,
In 1982, to fit the new‘Good Manufacturing Practice'regulations announced by the government, the manufacturing facilities of local SMES were upgraded (Zheng 2001:
193,229. However, because of their small size, these companies were unable to innovate or to export their products.
and the low cost of manufacturing began to invest in Taiwan in the 1960s. Most of these multinational corporations (MNCS) were from Japan and the USA, such as Takeda pharmaceuticals (from Japan) and Pfizer (from the USA.
The MNCS brought advantageous manufacturing technologies to Taiwan, particularly the technologies of chemical engineering for pharmaceuticals.
) Nevertheless, since the 1990s, because of the rising cost of manufacturing in Taiwan and the policies of free trade in pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical MNCS gradually sold their manufacturing facilities to local companies (DCB 2003:
and local SMES gradually became the main force in manufacturing. Yet, as shown by the statistical data in 1995,
and followed the Good Manufacturing Practice rules to upgrade their machinery facilities, in the 1990s,
and transferring the technology of chemical engineering to pharmaceutical manufacturing (Ding 2001: 229). ) The Industrial Technology research Institute, another public research organization, also helped local SMES upgrade their manufacturing facilities
in order to comply with the Good Manufacturing Practice regulations. But until the late 1990s, there was no institution
which could transfer pharmaceutical biotechnology from the universities to pharmaceutical companies. 3. 1. 3 National institutions:
each policy directed towards pharmaceutical biotechnology had its own historical background and changed with the evolution of pharmaceuticals and biotechnnology The Eight Key Industries policy,
and to control the manufacturing activities of the pharmaceutical sector. Thus regulation and FDI policies were very important.
However, as a milestone, the Eight Key Industries itself was only a general policy announcement.
Besides recognizing biotechnology as one of the eight key industries in which the government should invest more resourrces there was no other concrete policy promoted under the framework of the Eight Key Industries.
Furthermore, according to the Eight Key Industries policy, the development of biotechnology was almost equal to the development of the pharmaceutical sector
whose knowledge base was chemical engineering rather than biotechnology (MOEA 2010). Policies of regulation, FDI and R&d were directed towards the pharmaceutical biotechnology innovation system.
and remained the most important regulation controlling the manufacture of medicines until 2000. The Good Manufacturing Practice regulations were launched in 1982 to force the local SMES to upgrade their manufacturing capabilities.
In 1950, the government launched the‘Statute for Encouraging Foreign Direct Investment'(abolished in 1990)
or transferred manufacturing technologies based on chemical engineering to local companies (Zheng 2001: 202). ) In terms of R&d policies, fundamental biological and pharmaceutical research in universities was funded continuously,
The majority of foreign exchanges were used to support the development of manufacturing industries, particularly the information and communication technologies (ICT.
when the manufacturing industries were developed well and agricultural products were exported no longer, did the policy objectives of the agricultuura policies turned to upgrading the farmers'living standards (Chang 1982:
when the first biotechnology policy, the Eight Key Industries, was announced in 1982, agricultural biotechnology was recognized not as a part of the development of biotechnologgy Indeed,
since the 1980s, compared with the prosperoou ICT industries, the agricultural sector was recognized gradually as the sector with low productivity.
in the pharmaceuticca biotechnology innovation system local SMES led the innovation and manufacturing. MNCS were involved only once in the manufacturing activities of the system
and then gradually withdrew their investments in the 1990s. After that there were fewer and fewer large firms involved in pharmaceutical manufacturing.
Competition 278. C.-C. Chung was the main mode of interaction between local SMES. Because of the regulation of human resources in universities the networks between universities and pharmaceuttica companies were established not clearly.
while pharmaceutical manufacturing was the main activity of the system, the main policies were regulation and FDI,
which aimed to control the manufacturing facilities and the quality of the medicines. After the 1980s,
R&d policies became more and more importannt Indeed, the Eight Key Industries, the first biotechnoloog policy, targeted the development of the pharmaceutical sector, rather than biotechnology.
DCB (2004) The Yearbook of Chinese Herbal Medicine Industry 2004. Taipei: Development Center of Biotechnology.
Department of Industrial Technology. Dodgson, M.,Mathews, J.,Kastelle, T. and Hu, M.-C. 2008)‘ The evolving nature of Taiwan's national innovation systems:
Giesecke, S. 2000)‘ The contrasting roles of government in the development of biotechnology industry in the US and Germany',Research policy, 29: 205 23.
the evolution of technological systems in renewable energy technology',Industrial and Corporate Change, 13: 815 49.
Lee, S.-J. and Hua, J. 2004)‘ The economic evaluation of the food industry using biotechnology'(.
Food Industry Research and development Institute. Lin, J.-Y. 1995)‘ The experiments and research of Taiwan's Agriculture Experiment Station within recent one hundred years'(.
Science and Technology research and Information Center (2005)‘ Strategic planning on the development of Taiwan agricultural biotechnology industry'(.
Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9pl, UK 3directorate for Science, Technology and Industry, OECD,
and largely oriented towards supporting the military industrial complex (Gassler et al. 2008). The issues covered by the term‘grand challenges'naturalll lend themselves to a global outlook,
Cross-sectoral collaboration between various industries with the complementary assets to address grand challenges..Longer-term time horizons to be introduced more expliciitl into shorter-term policy agendas
It is also important to highlight that the factors influencing innovation differ across industries, and this has implications for policy (Fagerberg et al. 2004).
and the industries and sectors that need to react and that will be affected. 3. Innovation systems and their functioning Thus,
and intermeddiar bodies, such as industry associations and private consultants. In many innovation systems, such organisations are
between industry and academia or between firms in a business cluster but also commonly occurs through more market-based mechanisms, such as user producer interactions and supply chains.
6 are accommodattin a strong interest from industry to address major challenges. In the same vein, three PPPS were established under the European Economic Recovery Plan to help industries that were hit severely by the economic recession (Factories of the Future, Energy efficient Buildings and Green Cars.
The new instruments mentioned above have started only recently, so any comprehensive assessment of their use and application of fta would be premature.
By promoting the inclusion of all relevant stakeholders they can facilitate cross-sectoral collaboration between the public and private sectors as well as between various industries, a multilevel governance approach,
Freeman, C. and Soete, L. 1997) The Economics of Industrial Innovation, 3rd edn. London: Pinter.
Knowledge-intensive industries and distributed knowledge bases',Paper prepared as part of the project‘Innovation policy in a knowledge-based economy'commissioned by the European commission.
*Paul Cutler2, 3, John Marks4, Richard Meylan2, 5, Carthage Smith2 and Emilia Koivisto2, 6 1directorate for Science, Technology and Industry, OECD,
For example, experiences with international foresight using scenarios have been described by Cagnin and Ko nno la (2011) for the domain of intelligent and sustainable manufacturing,
lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems, 'paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, held Seville, Spain, 12 may 2011.
Thirdly, the literature on technological systems places the emphasis on networks of agents in a specific economic or industrial sector and the particular institutional infrastructure involved in the generaatio and diffusion of technology (Carlsson and Stankiewicz 1991.
and link them with emerging technological and industrial development. Systemic change can be facilitated through different policies, e g. regulation and taxes,
The structure of the systemic transformation roadmap is presented in Fig. 1. This roadmap depicts the impacts of the objects under scrutiny (e g. new industrial practice and emerging service business) in an overall systemic level.
The fragmented structure of the industry, its value chains and business models create barriers to the adoption of new innovations.
The cyclical nature of the industry with its expectations of short-term profit discourages innovation, as both demand and profits are subject to strong variation (Squicciarini and Asikainen 2010).
This may have a negative effect on innovattio in the industry because legitimate solutions will become associated with particular technologies.
small-scale energy production User-generated new green ICT services Agile manufacturing: Integrated industrial production and easily configurable processes Intelligent consumer solutions,
such as smart appliances for automated decision making Intelligent and more automated transportation Intelligent products and services with life cycle management modules Remote collaboration solutions:
accessible and economical energy generation (using renewablles) distribution and consumption both in households and business/industry.
and services Skype and social media based solutions are challenging the teleconferencing solutions Basic life cycle analysis software Ecodesign tools Integrated industrial production becoming mainstream,
Basic life-cycle assessment (LCA) software is used already in industrial production. In the medium term there will be different types of services that utilize data from ICT embedded in our everyday environment.
In industry, new manufacturing paradigms are evolving and new ICT-based tools and processes are available for the whole production life-cycle.
The manufacturing industry is efficient and agile in terms of life cycles leading to integrated industrial production and easily configurable processes.
A considerable portion of the energy is generated and distributed in buildings or at the neighbourhood level.
In the long term, integrated industrial production will become mainstream. That means that different types of products will be produced in the same facilities to ensure a maximal use of resources.
The first case study (green and intelligent buildings in Victoria Australia) was an example of a transformmatio roadmap that was completed as part of a wider regional strategy for industrial renewal.
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