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/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495 programs to the institutionalization of a new legal entity for allocating a common pot of resources through competitive calls for proposals.
CENELEC and ETSI in the legal framework allowing for the free movement of goods. EC directives define the essential requirements,
Here, legal frameworks as an object of assessment are part among the set of other policy instruments, like R&d funding,
Benchmarking Financing R&d Provision of R&d infrastructure Technology transfer and innovation diffusion Legal frameworks (IPRS, standards and regulation) Integrated projects Networks of excellence Methodology:
fulfilling legal obligations and for fostering domestic and international trade of services. Blind 36 extended and modified the above approach
strategic and legal aspects together and most experts in organissation cover just one dimension. This leads to rather moderate and low response rates.
while the legal competences to set policies are with the national or (sub-national) regional governments.
either directly (e g. legal, financial, and marketing experts) or indirectly (e g. teachers). 13 A number of typologies could be used to define/classify research activities,
along with the ethical and legal issues arising as a result of the widespread use of these products. A number of processes have been designed
and implemented concerning the legal, ethical and social impacts of nanosciences,-technologies, and-artifacts. The paper suggests that Inclusive foresight,
The repeated occurrences and acceptance of acronyms such as ELSA (Ethical, Legal, Social Aspects) and HES (Health, Environmental, Safety) in discourse on,
as the council has a legal obligation to make strategy plans. In the case of the Energy research programme, legitimacy is secured primarily through hearings.
1) EU institutions have had a prominent legal role by delaying the introduction of GM crop in Europe.
The inherent unpredictability of technology development and commercialization processes, legal and regulatory developments, and changes in cultural factors and 0040-1625/$-see front matter D 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. doi:
SWAMI took a more critical approach to the social, economic, legal, technological and ethical implications surrounding such issues as privacy, control of information, and identity.
which requires fair legal frameworks that are implemented impartially, full protection of human rights, an independent judiciary and an impartial incorruptible police force.
which is responsive and accountable to all stockholders and the legal frameworks in place, therefore being effective, efficient, and transparent.
technology, environment, natural resources, biomedical aspects, institutional and legal matters as well as the socioeconomic aspects.''Davitaya 41 enlarged Evan's definition describing,
Moral & Legal Issues 2. Science & Technology Science Culture & Discoveries Technology Progress Innovative, Transformative Applications & Products 3. Energy Current Energy Use
the article argues for equipping legal activities with a set of tools, methods and approaches that enables them to acknowledge
modeling techniques and backcasting) may bring to three specific legal fields: legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement.
The application of fta to Law is important not only to orient and streamline legal research, but also to identify the most relevant topics
and areas that law will need to take care of, to analyze and test the potential impacts of different (and forthcoming) hypothetical laws, contributing to the modernization of current legislative processes,
When urban planning operates in a context with a rigid legal framework, excessive public intervention and public and private decision-makers acting in opaque and arbitrary ways,
the legal framework, the technology base and the management skills. This conceptual model may vary a lot from one country to other.
B The transformation of the planning process will require reciprocal changes in the legal framework and the governance model.
the cases of legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andrade Abstract Purpose This paper seeks to propose the application of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to law.
the article argues for equipping legal activities with a set of tools, methods and approaches that enables them to acknowledge
modelling techniques and backcasting) may bring to three specific legal fields: legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement.
The article also examines the prospective perils that systematically applying FTA to law may bring about.
Originality/value Future-oriented legal studies are rare and, what is worse, the ones that exist lack proper methodology,
This paper attempts to fill the gap produced by this notorious lack of methodology in the legal analysis of the future
It proposes the application of future-oriented analysis (FTA) as a common umbrella term that encompasses foresight, forecasting and technology assessmentmethods and tools to the legal sphere.
In their efforts to establish a legal framework characterised by the fundamental values of order, stability and predictability, legislators,
Shaped by the values and parameters of legal security and certainty, the legal mind seems to have developed a phobia as regards uncertainty
the scope of legal research supporting policy decision-making tends to be rather restrictive, looking solely to the immediate past in order PAGE 336 jforesight j VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012, pp. 336-351, Q Emerald Group Publishing Limited,
Future-oriented legal studies are rare and, what is worse, the ones that exist lack proper methodology,
This paper attempts to fill the gap produced by this notorious lack of methodology in the legal analysis of the future,
forecasting and technology assessment methods and tools to the legal sphere. 2. Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA)‘‘Future-oriented technology analysis''(FTA) was created the term to encompass the different tools
and would propose that their conceptualisation be expanded to the legal sphere. To be strictly accurate,
one could say that FTA has already been applied to the legal context. This application, however
In the following sections, a series of initiatives (existing and/or prospective) regarding the application and use of specific FTA TOOLS and approaches In law, namely to legal research,
legislative drafting and law enforcement, will be examined. 3. 2 Legal research 3. 2. 1 Law of the Future Joint Action Programme.
In a rather unusual initiative within the general framework of legal research, The hague Institute for the Internationalisation of Law (Hiil) began in 2010‘‘a unique forward-looking exercise in the field of law:
What do those developments mean for national legal systems in the international legal order as a whole?''''Muller et al.
but it also made possible the very first publication of a legal nature that addresses the future of law in such a broad
along with the future of legal theory, the future of space law and the alternative futures of crime and prisons.
2006), the objective of these think pieces was to collect, within a legal context, a range of varied ideas about the future.
This kind of narrative exercise tends not to be very appealing to the legal mind, which is concerned usually more with the‘‘real''and immediate world,
Despite the fact that scenarios have already been used in legal-oriented studies, such as the European-funded projects SWAMI 11 and FIDIS 12, their application has been limited, sporadic and largely descriptive.
thus to support the policy/legal recommendations advanced in projects of this kind, and not to problematize or present alternative visions of the future.
they were not of a legal nature (of what law would look like), but instead about what the world will look like after the implementation of certain emerging and future technologies (such as the vision of Ambient Intelligence or the prospect of human enhancement).
which aimed to alert the policy maker to the legal implications of such prospective scenarios. The Law of the Future project embraced scenario planning in a very distinctive manner.
and then derive a series of legal recommendations to the policy makers, but to tackle Law itself that is to describe what Law per se will look like in the future,
LOTF aimed to cover an extensive range of legal dimensions and dynamics, looking at constitutional, institutional and administrative law (public actors and relationships with the public administration);
Moreover, the project planned to study all of these legal dimensions at national and international levels, including both the public and private spheres.
The legal scenarios thus set out to be global and systemic. Their planning, as mentioned above, derived from the initial Delphi phase in
As such, the LOTF team first identified a series of major global trends, both societal and legal.
the legal trends dealt with the possible shift from a predominantly national to a predominantly international legal environment,
or the potential shift from a predominantly public legal regime to a mixed public-private regime or even predominantly private regime.
The latter consisted, specifically, of the two following legal contingencies: the continuous internationalisation of VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 339 rules and institutions or its stagnation or reverse;
or the continuous expansion of the predominant role of private governance mechanisms or the reinstatement of state-connected institutions and legal regimes.
continued growth of international law and international legal institutions; the rules and institutions have a predominantly public nature. 2. The Legal Borders scenario:
the process of expansion of international rules and institutions reverses and legal borders thickens; dominated by state-made law borders;
regional organizations emerge as a key part of developing legal borders. 3. The Legal Internet Scenario:
growth of international rules and institutions, which go hand in hand with a growing dominance of public-private or even private governance mechanisms.
complementing the scenarios with a system of monitoring mechanisms, legal contingency planning, and preparatory measures.
as it opens the doors to the application of other FTA TOOLS to legal research, combining qualitative with quantitative methods 14.3.3 Legislative drafting 3. 3. 1 Futurict.
and simulation platforms) offer a number of important advantages when applied to the legal context.
legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement is only now adopting some of these FTA TOOLS. In this way, the benefits of a more encompassing and systematic application of fta to the legal sphere are yet to be uncovered
and evaluated. This section will describe some of these benefits and advantages. At a general level, the application of fta to legal research constitutes an appeal to the creativity of the researcher and to the realisation of the full potential of his or her academic freedom.
In this context, and contrary to mainstream academic though and methodology, I argue in favour of speculative (and disruptive) thought applied to legal research and teaching,
as this would allow legal scholars and students to‘‘think outside the box.''''In this sense, FTA should
not only be integrated into legal culture, but also into legal academic curricula. In this respect, it is interesting to note that the famous H g wells,
back in 1933 and PAGE 342 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 in a BBC broadcast program, underlined the need for professors of foresight,
arguing that‘‘we are surrounded by numerous professors of the past, but not one of the future''(Miles and Keenan, 2003).
I believe that Law schools would very much enrich their programs by creating the post for Professors of Legal Foresight
and by establishing the course of Legal Future (in the same way as they provide the well established and fundamental courses of Legal History).
In addition, the application of fta to legal research may also unblock the legal mind from current paradigms
and in the legal context, the production of scenarios is extremely useful for dealing with the inexorable uncertainty of the Future 18.
VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 343 The application of modelling techniques to the legal domain represents a step further in the use of ICT, Artificial intelligence (AI) and other advanced
legislators and legal practitioners to better understand the world in which Law needs to operate.
scenario planning can be associated with modelling analysis to allow legislators to test different legal options and regulatory solutions within simulated environments.
for instance, the potential impact that different legal reforms can have applied when to different and prospective world conditions.
may prove to be extremely useful not only to legal research activities, but also to legislative making processes.
(which would certainly aid lawmakers to better determine the content, objectives and direction of their legal reforms proposals),
The effects of legal changes and reforms could thus be anticipated and tested in safe and experimental environments.
and legal practitioners more attentive (and also more accountable) to the outcomes and impact of enacted or revised legislation.
to orient and streamline legal research, identifying the most relevant topics and areas that law will need to act on;
moreover, may also affect the application of fta to legal research. In this particular, the question one encounters is how to measure the quality and the appropriateness of the legal research based on a specific FTA (determining, for instance,
the continuity of the financial investment presupposed in the application of fta tools?).Given the systemic unpredictability of the future 20, how can FTA-based
or oriented laws and legal research be evaluated effectively? Further research is needed in this area, namely in terms of formulating quality standards
or entrepreneurial objectives instead of being used as a neutral and scientific instrument in support of better law making and legal research.
when linked to legal activities should be researched further, avoiding thus the risk of having the future (either envisaged in the form of scenario,
Legal research, legislative-drafting and law enforcement should preserve their‘‘humanity, ''conserving a degree of discretion, flexibility,
Further research is needed therefore on better ways to incorporate quantitative FTA APPROACHES to legal activities, studying how for example modelling techniques can assist Law without threatening its independence as a fundamental human (and not machine driven) activity. 4. 2. 4 Distinction and legitimacy.
reflecting on the application of fta tools and methods (such as Delphi surveys, scenario planning, backcasting and modelling techniques) to the legal sphere,
legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement. Through this analysis, the paper underlines the roles that FTA can play in managing uncertainty
to equip the various legal activities, from research to lawmaking, with a set of tools,
and actors involved in areas and activities as diverse as legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement. 2. For a historical review of the development of Future-oriented technology analysis, see Johnston (2008).
which could be analyzed not only from a legal standpoint, but also from an economic, political or a social perspective.
and analyse the social, economic, legal, technological and ethical issues related to identity, privacy and security in the forecasted
Signposting the legal space of the future. 14. A concrete example of a combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in FTA, namely between scenario and modelling analysis, can be found in the so-called International Futures (IFS.‘‘
Signposting the legal space of the future'',available at: www. lawofthefuture. org/ul/cms/fck-uploaded/documents/LOTFLSTO2030COMPLETE041011DEF1. pdf Hughes, B b.,Moyer, J. D. and Rothman,
and technology (including biotechnology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, genetics and genomics, digital environments, ambient intelligence), data protection and privacy law, intellectual property, philosophy of law and legal theory.
legal Run the business Implementing the vision of sustainability Business Sustainability Maturity Model Business Path to Sustainability Comparing present performance (as it is) with the business
the identification of potential constraints that might stem from economical, technological or societal implications, an assessment of the relevance for basic education and advanced training as well as the consideration of ethical and legal aspects.
One of the tasks for the innovation priority‘‘Creation of Mechanisms for Elimination of Cumulative Ecological Damage''was‘‘Development of a legal mechanism of responsibility for cumulative ecological damage,
Patents are oriented towards the legal protection of technologies and therefore the classification of patents is based on technologies or products that use specific technologies (Schmoch, 2008).
The basic year has no legal meaning, but only represents the year in which DII obtained the patent documents.
legal and social aspects (ELSA) became more important only later on. Especially the inter-organizational setting can be considered a crucial condition for maximizing the impact that participatory FTA can have in the future governance of nanotechnology. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
In addition, the term also encompasses new participatory types of future-oriented nanotechnology-related studies and activities, such as dialogues on ethical, legal and social aspects cf. 31.
Legal and Social Implications (ELSI) into nanotechnology R&d programs and supported centers for nanotechnology in society.
NSET Workshop Report, National science Foundation (NSF), 2001.39 E. Fisher, Lessons learned from the Ethical, Legal and Social Implications program (ELSI:
Gmbh) was selected as the legal form for the organization. The EICT Gmbh provides a legal framework
and platform for collaboration covering the entire innovation process, from inception to successful completion. It aims at providing an innovative environment where knowledge is pooled,
and a legal framework for the free flow of information is created. Specifically, the partners are supported at several stages of the Table 3 Networked foresight activities in Rijkswaterstaat.
By establishing the public-private partnership and founding the Gmbh as its legal form the partners created a framework to facilitate the exchange of knowledge with predefined rules and clear IPR boundaries.
administrative and legal Public services Politics State Global Joint horizon scanning Science and Public policy February 2010 11 first discussion with this network was held
of the entire creative content market in Europe Political and legal issues Six theses, e g.
players'strategies or the legal environnment should a particular scenario be realised. This approach was very helpful for stimulating discusssions
investigating market-oriented, sociological, usability, legal, technological and social networking issues. Finally, the third stage (test market and pilotinng consisted of an evaluation of the results from the second stage on an individual application level
trends in regulattor and legal national and international framework; applied metrology for biologiica products and processes;
national and international legal and regulatory biosafety framewoork access to genetic resouurce and traditional knowledge; future of plant breeding and future breeder profile;
and expectations about how work and interacttion should be conducted Differences in legal and regulatory systems Intellectual property (IP)
and legal provisions supporting OA; OA policies from national funding bodies, universities and research centers; references to OA in grant agreements) Problems of oversight related to research integrity Evaluation Evaluation of transnational programme refers to appropriateness, effectiveness and efficiency in execution of entire programme and its parts
Anderson (2010) also points to the importance of legal and regulatory systems, oversight related to research integrity,
The storyline may address conflicts or common interests as well as emotional, ethical and legal aspects. The storyliin usually gives implicit
or concerns emotional or ethical legal aspects), and changeability (if the story or its impact can be altered by human action
The novelty of weak signals as well as rising ethical, legal, societal or cultural issues, and also possible implications, could also be traced.
as reported in literature/discussed in conferences Ethical, legal, societal issues Medium High High Expert discussions, futurists symposia,
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