the lower level of code (i e. more digits of the code) can be given to these keywords.
or terms in each Delphi topic through content analysis Step 4 Assign the corresponding IPC codes (main-group level
demonstration of the future technology trajectory and intelligence in different level of technology scope is possible.
Therefore, not only policy makers at the national level but also researchers who are conducting a research agenda can use such a structured analysis result to see the future trends in their proper scope
unknown knows and unknown unknowns The three phases above denote three levels of ignorance that FTA deals with 1,
The example of Fukushima nuclear disaster exemplifies the levels of ignorance respectively (i e. the likelihood of an earthquake;
the level of socioeconomic development of the country (ies), region (s), sector (s) or city (ies) in which they are conducted;
and it cannot be reduced to the question of its level of methodological sophistication. To put it in a somewhat simplified way,
The very nature of grand challenges in most cases requires co-operation and co-ordination across (i) policy domains and (ii) governance (policy) levels.
as well as co-operation among policy-makers working at regional, national and supranational level. This overall question needs to be divided into several‘sub-questions,
those that address an issue that needs to be tackled at the level of nations and world regions,
They introduce a three-level taxonomy independent use of QL and QT approaches for their combination at a later stage
i) capture of indications for extrasysttemi change at a micro level instead of extrapolating seemingly dominant macro-trends, ii) mobilisation of tacit knowledge as well as support a creative spirit and an easy exchange of ideas among diverse stakeholders through
and strategy making with particular emphasis upon foresight methodologies and their implementation in socioeconomic and technological fields at the supranational, national, regional and sectoral levels. 385 C. Cagnin et al./
In particular this paper describes the methodological state of the field through a tripartite taxonomy of increasing levels of qualitative and quantitative integration.
Building on this, Section 3 proposes a taxonomy of methodological combinations at different levels of integration
An interesting one is to group FTA EXERCISES based on the level of integration of qualitative and quantitative methods.
We therefore propose a taxonomy of methodological combinations at three different levels of interaction and use this as a basis for looking at current practices in combining qualitative and quantitative FTA APPROACHES. 3. 1. Independent (parallel
as long as a mechanism can be identified to ensure some level of communication 63.4.3. Misconceptions within the FTA COMMUNITY In order to better understand the pros and cons of different methodologies,
it may also lead to higher acceptance levels and legitimacy. A good management of stakeholders'participation, is
closing the epistemological gap In the long run the clash of cultures could be transformed into an asset by developing the right skills to improve the community's work, the level of trust and, ultimately, the policy impact of fta.
Alexander Sokolov is a member of a number of high-level expert groups at the OECD and other international organisations. 397 K. Haegeman et al./
& Social Change Another important predecessor approach upon which we draw is the identification of Technology Readiness Levels (TRLS).
Nolte et al. 7 overview the 7-level TRL and how to estimate this. The U s. National aeronautics and space administration (NASA) uses a 9-level version 8
. When a complex technical system incorporates a number of emerging technologies, use of TRLS has proven helpful in designing a viable new system.
A very important aspect of Fisher's approach when introducing for the first time the dfitness functiont was that of natural selection acting on the population level,
the bio-mathematicians Vito Volterra and Alfred Lotka popularized a set of differential equations to describe the growth of population levels,
the selective amplification of genotypes based on the differential reproductive success conveyed by their phenotypes through chance events at the level of genotypes.
what allows for the necessary flexibility required to take part in the selection process at the several levels of the evolutionary game 25.4.4.
Theoretically and methodologically this approach makes possible the construction of models from the level of processes that are immediately and empirically observable, namely the local interactions of single units (agents) governed by local rules.
The SD model incorporates, at a high level of aggregation, the main structures driving the competition among four energy technologies.
These actions together aim at making the sustainable technologies more cost efficient once their costs are reasonably affordable levels
or scenario specialists 3. Developing and using scenarios can contribute at various levels of society by generating appropriate inputs for planning
At a strategic level, the European union took up this challenge via the Innovation Union Flagship Initiative as part of the Europe 2020 strategy launched in 2010.
some level of opportunity for individuals to revise views; and anonymity for the individual responses 57.
they tend to focus on the strategic level although additional layers of detail can subsequently be added.
The US and Germany differ with regard to their commitment to national-level foresight activities (as a highly comprehensive form of FTA.
national-level technology foresight studies are seen not as a prominent activity in the science and technology landscape of the United states. The U s. stands virtually alone in specifically avoiding centralized S&t planning
The concept aims at having participatory FTA be taken up into ongoing sociotechnical processes to shape their eventual outcomes at all levels including to the point of the lab 43.
These unrelated processes cover dialogues at the federal and state levels as well as stakeholder dialogues and processes of public understanding of science and technology 50.
a women's association and a medical practitioners'organization, trade unions, churches, academia, industry and government bodies (such as federal ministries and agencies as well as ministries on the regional and state level) discussed their positions 51.
The new vision embraces participation at the conceptual level but it remains unclear how the highly ambitious concept will be implemented and
Inductive foresight approach with an emphasis on capturing indications for extra-systemic change at a micro level instead of extrapolating seemingly dominant macro-trends.
When the micro level is added in the fleshing out phase of the scenario building, it sometimes merely serves to illustrate the pre-conceptualised macro-structures.
Finally, policy implications arising from the changing nature of innovation were discussed with policy makers from various realms and levels in interviews and within one dedicated policy workshop.
The inductive approach (focussing on signals of change at the micro level) and the extended openness for diversity are typical elements of weak signal scanning processes.
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 dominance of the macro-level and the influence of today's perception of consistency were reduced to give room for creative assessment of structural transformation.
In particular in the case of an inductive approach where a large number of micro-level findings need to be structured
At a practical level the shifts make it less clear where the activity should be situated who has ownership of the problems
and assess differences between policy foresight at the local/regional and national levels. By evaluating six Dutch Foresight exercises from the point of view of policy makers as‘‘users''of foresight studies they highlight the importance of taking into account differences between the national and local level when designing an FTA PROCESS.
A third paper, written by Cagnin and Ko nno la, can also be allocated to category (a). This paper suggests that endogenous improvement to FTA PROCESSES is about tailoring Foresight design to the specific applied context.
not only was there considerable confusion and conflict at the level of methods, how to think about the future (epistemology),
and organisation levels view culture as something that somebody‘‘has''13 16. However anthropologists view culture as the fundamentals of existence.
A more careful investigation might reveal that societies with lower levels of uncertainty avoidance might be less willing to launch significant foresight exercises
and certain types of education are negotiated through industrial level bargains between trade unions and employer associations.
This hybrid socioeconomic position of Denmark combined with the cultural aspects of low levels of power distance and uncertainty avoidance have important implications for the specificity of the foresight exercises in Denmark.
Second, the strong traditions for central negotiation at the industrial level in Denmark between employer and employee associations for instance about productivity enhancing means make it more appropriate and convenient for the Danish government to include the industrial partners in the process of discussing
Third, the low level of power distance and uncertainty avoidance combined with dense networking and knowledge transfer between public and private institutions
The scientific/analytical level in Danish white papers has generally been low. White papers have seemed often negotiated rather than analytical presentations of political issues...
and compared at the local and the national level. Different insights are related to different activities in the policy cycle
to increase our understanding of possible similarities and differences, taking the different responsibilities and tasks of these levels into account.
The aim is to increase insight into topics such as the level of acquaintance and experience with scenario analysis methods in strategic policy-making,
We focused on the following research questions at the national and local levels: How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of scenario analysis methods?
What are the similarities and differences in the application of foresight methods to strategic policy processes between the local and national level?
and data sources We compared experiences at the local level with experiences at the national level.
At the local level, we adopted a casebaase approach to increase our understanding of the key issues involved.
At the local level, a document analysis was combined with interviews with policymakers. The document analysis focused on documents regarding the scenarios and related strategic policy documents.
We compared the findings of the case studies in the local public domain with two studies on the use of foresight at a national level (see 23,24),
with the aim of making clear to what extent the findings are indeed similar at a local level and
what the potential differences are between the local and national level. The two studies that examined the national level mainly involved semi-structured interviews with civil servants involved in strategic matters and with the users and commissioners of foresight studies.
and strategy are related in policy processes at a national level, this was not a problem
The second study conducted by the authors at the national level 24 was aimed at discerning how Dutch departments use foresight to develop their own organisation(‘organizational foresight'.
This research approach is different from the research at the local level; in the local studies, the evaluation of futures research methods was considered predominantly in view of how they are used for
Nevertheless, the findings at the local level can be put in perspective by comparing them with the findings at the national level,
One of the authors conducted both national level inquiries that were used as data sources for this article.
In most cases, policy-makers at the local level are of the opinion that local organisations lack experience using scenario analysis methods.
Especially at the level of city councils, it is hard to find examples of strategic policy activities using scenario analysis methods,
By way of contrast, the national level inquiries showed that civil servants are relatively familiar with foresight methods, especially scenario analysis,
Especially at the national level, we see that foresight methods are performed in a participatory way, including external perspectives.
On the whole, we conclude that, at a national level, people are more familiar and experienced with foresight for policymakkin purposes than at the local level.
Nevertheless, at both levels, there are reasons for outsourcing foresight. However, at the national level, the motive is to increase objectivity,
while at the local level, the motive is to bring in more outside expertise. 3. 2
. What are the motivations of policy makers for applying the scenario analysis method? In all local cases, the main ambition was to use scenarios to raise awareness of a changing future
we see that the function of informing policy is leading, both at the national and the local level.
One of the differences between the national level and the local level is that at the national level, the reasons for using the scenario method tend to be more diverse than at the local level.
At the national level, motives range from gathering inspiration for new policies to formulating specific strategic policies,
whereas the focus tends to be more on identifying possible future issues at the local level.
The motives mentioned at both the local and the national levels are mostly content-related.
We can draw a distinction between content-driven and process-driven motives for using the scenario analysis method in the different phases (see also the distinction between process-oriented and product-oriented development of scenarios 10).
at an individual and group level 13,14. 3. 3. How are used the results in the strategic policy process, in which phase?
The results of the cases made it clear that, at the local level, it is still difficult to connect the insights of a scenario exercise to different steps in a strategic policy process.
It appears to be a huge step for policy-makers at the local level to link scenario insights to the agendasetttin and policy preparation phases.
The national level‘policy foresight'studies showed that foresight can play three different roles:(1) signalling new developments,
Agendasetttin seems to be important both at the local and national level. Apparently, when the time to make a decision comes closer,
and the strategic policy-process is closer at the national level than it is at the regional level.
At the national level, the connection is especially close at the start of the policy cycle, although this connection becomes looser later on.
At the local level, it seems to be difficult at any phase in the policy cycles to use the results of scenario studies in an optimal way. 3. 4
To a large extent, the added value of using the foresight method as perceived by policy-makers at the local level is processrelaated Local policy-makers indicated that they saw the inter-sectoral approach as one of the main process-related benefits
Learning to think in terms of alternative futures was seen as an eye-opener, especially at the local level. In the past, some local policy-makers experienced a tendency among politicians to underpin policies by most likely scenarios.
When we compare the local level results to the two national policy foresight'studies, it becomes clear that there is a greater focus on content at the national level,
while local policy-makers are oriented more process. In addition, we discovered a kind of connection paradox at the national level.
On the one hand, the long lead time of strategy processes makes the use of foresight methods necessary. On the other hand, this leads to a certain level of disappointment, due to a lack of short-term implications.
Generally speaking, it is difficult to assess the impact of a foresight exercise by making a direct connection with a specific strategic decision.
The same is true at the national level. The two studies of national foresight activities indicate that there is room for improvement
especially at the local level, is the low level of knowledge and expertise, making it difficult for policy-makers to know which types of scenario analysis methods
According to the policy-makers at the local level another challenge is to know which information sources they should use to develop the scenarios themselves.
the perception at the local level was that, in addition to external assistance, policy-makers should also be able to implement
Generally speaking, civil servants at the national level find it easier to gain access to high quality information
which explains why, at this level, the necessary skills are developed better than at a local level.
To summarise, national level policy-makers seem to be equipped better to conduct foresight studies than their counterparts at the local level. 3. 5. 2. Timing of the foresight study Both at the local and national level,
policy-makers indicated they consider the timing of a future study to be a crucial success factor
At the national level the duration of the process does not appear to be a major issue.
and cultural embedding Another barrier has to do with the level of embedding of future-oriented thinking and acting.
Two levels of embedding were identified: organisational embedding (especially at the level of operational structures and procedures) and cultural embedding.
In the local cases, policy-makers concluded that one of the key challenges with respect to organisational embedding is to find appropriate operational models
and the insights generated by future analyses are integrated into the various strategic levels and sectoral departments of their organisation.
The results of the analysis of local level foresight processes make it clear that policy-makers struggle with implementing future-oriented thinking and acting within the current organisational structures.
On several occasions, interviewees at the local level noted that, to embed the paradigm of future-oriented policy-making successfully within their organisations,
With regard to the level of embedding, local policy-makers mentioned that managerial commitment from the start of a future exploration trajectory is a crucial success factor
At the national level, government commitment was emphasised also, albeit with an interesting nuance when it comes to the interaction between the Ministry and Parliament:
It was concluded also that, at the national level, government commitment is not the only success factor.
To summarise, at both the national and local levels, the environment in which futures studies are conducted is complex,
the success of the future analysis depends partly on their level of leadership. Policy-makers also indicate that leadership depends on the degree of confidence among colleagues with regard to the future analyses (for example because of the proven quality of their work;
The national level analysis also shows that foresight is a‘human affair, 'meaning that, despite the importance and wide range of methods,
National level results stress that the presence of a strong man/woman, task force or ambassador is required to make sure that the foresight study has an impact.
To summarise, at both the national and local levels, a kind of‘future champion'plays an important role in the development of the foresight process and its application to strategic policy-making.
and the national level differ, most significantly because of differences in the level of experience with foresight methods.
At the local level, there is less experience with foresight methods: thinking in terms of alternative futures and taking longer-run uncertainties into account is a rather new area of expertise that is still not broadly incorporated into the workings and cultures of local policy organisations.
There is evidence of learning-by-doing, as people explore and discover how to use the insights of foresight studies in strategic policy processes.
At the national level, there is more experience, as a result of which foresight studies are incorporated to a greater extent in daily routines
The lack of experience at the local level can be related to some of the barriers mentioned above.
The same may apply to the level of embedding with regard to the organisation and the organisational culture;
and acting has been embedded on a wider scale at the different levels mentioned above. It is interesting to see that, at the local level,
process-oriented effects of using foresight methods were emphasised, while, at the national level, greater emphasis was placed on content-related issues.
There were also similarities with regard to the implementation of foresight studies and the use of foresight insights, for example the important success factors of leadership and confidence in the process.
which may be explained by the fact that both organisational levels are related to each other from a governmental and political perspective.
Both levels operate in each other's sphere of influence, although the national level arguably has more influence.
In the end, we can also conclude that, at both levels, the authors feel that foresight studies are used not optimally (see 32).
An important challenge has to do with connecting the outcomes of futures research to decision-making processes. Da Costa et al. 25 also conclude that foresight results can only be taken on board by policy-makers
Despite the similarities between the national and the local level, it is doubtful whether foresight is identical at both levels,
and the prefixes‘local'and‘national'do not serve any purpose with regard to foresight studies. Different methods of foresight (for example different types of qualitative scenarios) are available,
Foresight has been applied at global and regional levels to support the design and implementation of policies and strategies.
Conducting the investigation this way makes it possible to address multiple levels and dimensions of how foresight processes impact on the innovation systems globally.
The latter claims that foresight needs to go beyond the level of a collective process to that of individual actors'strategies.
From the outset the initial design was geared towards taking into account the specificity of context and intentions when identifying guiding questions (i e. intended impacts and objectives), determining participants (i e. type and level of stakeholders'participation),
and engaging stakeholders Dissemination of results through the networks Training Tailored dissemination to targeted stakeholders Dissemination in different levels of innovation systems 9 However,
This understanding of potential needs at the local level which influence IMS at EU and global levels is
In fact, in the past 10 to 15 years, FTAACTIVITIES havemultiplied across a wide spectrum of settings and at different levels.
and underlines that Foresight needs to go beyond the level of a collective process and get to the level of individual actors'strategies.
The contribution provides a process outline and examples of Adaptive foresight, including a critical assessment of its potentials
'At a more tangible level, it has been argued that active involvement of users helps to create a good fit between the needs, expectations,
The CIM can be described on two different levels of detail: level 1, which links‘the'future to innovation processes and level 2,
which structures the partners involved in the innovation network and links them in a cyclic way.
Thus, the cases will show different levels of networked foresight. In one case the different concepts might be present but not explicitly formalized,
three different levels are used (visualized as gray-shading) for each component of the CIM to visualize their preference concerning openness and network orientation of futures research activities.
It is important to note that the levels in the illustration do not rate or reflect business performance of the organizations.
Thus, RWS is continuously searching for innovations in their Fig. 1. Level 1 of the Cyclic Innovation Model:
The CEO is also responsible for the application of the vision and strategy at a day-to-day operational level.
Second, pressure from the top management level of RWS to present short-term results in addition to conceptual work about possible future developments created a kind of‘‘the urgent drives out the important''atmosphere as Henri Kissinger put it.
and project teams consisting of employees from the working level helps to capture developments from the various partner organizations on different levels A regular selection
1. Within the EIT ICT Labs foresight that utilizes the network on various levels is practiced. 2. Beneficiaries of these activities are the network partners and the network itself.
She represents Malta at EU level on the Joint research Centre Board of Governors, the Euro-Mediterranean Monitoring Committee for Research and Technology development and the Framework programme 7, Regions Programme Committee.
this paper makes a series of recommendations regarding horizon scanning processes at the national level and the construction of common future-oriented policies.
Horizon scanning on the national level, across all policy areas (including S&t opportunities) is a receen development
exchange experiences and know-how on horizon scanning at the national level; compare basic data (lists of issues
The possible use of the horizon scan data at the European commission (EC) level was discussed in interviews with representattive of different directorates within the EC.
Stimulate decision-makers and their staff to use horizon scanning in decision-making on different levels, to broaden their thinking,
and departmental policies, particulaarl on the strategic level. Deliver information to a diversity of societal actoor
and implemented for some clients on the regional level. Furthermore, it was expected that publication of the issue lists on the horizon scan website would have the effect of raising public awareness of the issue.
and cultural expression as long as it does not interfere with other dimensioons increasing the intellectual level in service of the other dimensions;
In all scans we can obseerv that the level of abstraction (or granularity) that was used to describe the issues differed slightly between the scans.
which may provide users with a broad strateegi context at the top level, but also allow them to‘drill down'into more depth
Map of levels of complexity and indetermiinatio for foresight studies. Paper presented at Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis:
while providing the level of specificity needed to derive meaningful policy implications and conclusions. As explained above, the creative content sector is characterised by huge uncertainties in scientific-technological as well as in socioeconomic and institutional terms.
The creative content sector comprises a wide range of heterogeneous activities with diverse levels of industrialiisatio
A different level of participation was embedded at each stage of the above process. The sector analysis was carried out by the project team through literatuur review and expert interviews.
In order to tackle the diversity of the creative content sub-sectors, the scenarios addressed two levels, namely the creative content sector in general and specificities of at least some sub-sectors.
At the most basic level, success can be defined as attainnmen of the foresight programs goals. The problle is that,
or reduced levels of risk, even about prospective situations or events that contain inherently unpredictable aspects Impacts in terms of strategy formulation for action Support decision making Improve policy implementation Strengthen strategy formulation:
At an operational level, the nascent Canadian foresiigh initiative (2002 2008) was able to produce some excellent projects with strong insights,
and professional levels of organizations and industrial domains affected by the foresight were able to be involved in the process,
so despite a low receptor capacity, a reasonable level of connection was generated Total: only two out of eight factors were clearly evident 2008 Assessment:
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