and is used with different methods, for different objectives and in different settings. Yet, anticipaatio in science and technology is limited not to foresight,
The next section will review the range of foresight exercises and their methods, objectives and settings. Section 3 will discuss the main findings of the sociology of expectations,
Generally, foresight is distinguished according to method, objectives and setting. Various typologies of methods are available, and the review article of Porter (2004) lists the nine families of foresight methods including quantitative and qualitative explorations and forms of stakeholder involvement.
The objectives of foresight may also differ. The basic idea is that decision-making in firms
Apart from methods and objectives, foresight exercises also differ in the settings in which they are used.
to be examined by psychological methods. Collective expectations, on the other hand, are available in public statemennts They are shared not in the sense that everyone accepts them as valid,
Overarching vague visions that initiate and coordinate projects may run into trouble as soon they become more specific. 4. Lessons for foresight Foresight concerns a diverse set of policy exercises with different methods, objectives and settings(‘arenas'.
A review of foresight highlights the diversity in methods, objectives and settings(‘arenas'.'The review of the sociology of expectations discussed how expectations legitimise,
Methods and tools contributing to FTA: A knowledge-based perspective. Futures 43, no. 3: 265 78.
Towards a method for evaluating technological expectations: Revealing uncertainty in gene silencing technology discourse. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 345 59.
Methods and data The research design is based on an inductive and multiple-case study of a group of selected firms.
It therefore decided to use scenarios as its basic methodology for tackling the challenge of investigating the major driving forces
A new methodology for regional foresight. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 3, no. 2: 218 34.
Design and methods. 3rd ed. Newbury Park, CA: Sage. Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:03 03 december 2014
The armoury of methods that can be used to support and inform aspects of these decisions is considerable,
Foresight demands thatwittgenstein's dictum that‘methods pass the problem by'be in mind constantly.
which can be achieved through FTA APPROACHES and methods (Cagnin et al. 2008). This is a key aspect for policy interventtion Ultimately,
On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 208 21.
which included ways both to benchmark our methods and to deliver practical results. The first step was to create Sandia-specific visualizations of the IAS.
The landscape maps were created using a process consistent with commonly accepted methods of mapping knowledge domains 1 (see Fig. 1:!
Our LSA methodology differs slightly from that above in that we use semidiscrete decomposition 6, 7 rather than SVD to do the term matrix deconstruction.
and capacity building We suggest that roadmapping is a felicitous method for fostering and steering systemic transformattio capacities.
is an adaptive process-based methodology well suited for systemic contexts (see Ahlqvist, Valovirta, and Loikkanen 2012):
Process-based roadmapping is a scalable method that can be used to study the micro-level for example,
and as a process methodology. 1 Roadmapping combines different modes of knowledge with specific activity layers (Kostoff and Schaller 2001;
In other words, roadmaps are tools for the combination of organisational knowledge that may be‘unlinkable'with other strategic methods (see e g.
As a process methodology, roadmapping consists of several modules. Modularisation allows one to form a tailored‘response chain'to answer different kinds of research and development problems (see, e g.
Here, we call this methodology process-based roadmapping. It is based on an idea that roadmaps are like visual narratives describiin the most critical paths of future developments (Phaal and Muller 2009.
Knowledge spaces and roadmap scopes How is it possible to combine the roadmapping methodology with the creation of structural openness, an anticipatory agency,
Scope is a more traditional insight into roadmapping methodology that separates, for example, technology roadmaps and market roadmaps.
This category also contains a methodology of innovation policy roadmapping (see Ahlqvist, Valovirta, and Loikkanen 2012.
foresight and organisational learning methods were integrated in a workshop process. During the workshops in 2009, some 30 VTT researchers and management representatives built shared understanding of the field.
The process was based on a novel combination of methods. The integrative methodology rested on the model of expansive learning (Engeström 2001.
In the process, two practical methods were added to the model of expansive learning. First, impact evaluation was used to gain a systematic view of the past (see Halonen, Kallio, and Saari 2010.
Second, roadmapping was used to trigger participatory, future-oriented thinking. Roadmapping was divided into two phases. The first roadmapping phase traced the big picture of the service landscape from the present moment (2009) until 2025.
and vision for the future Social/actor Identification of most important players in the field of service research internally and externally Capacities and methods for linking and sharing existing knowledge internally,
opportunities and challenges Markets for new services and service providers in the field Capacities and methods for creating new knowledge in the network Endorsed a view of VTT as a key player in service research both in Finland and Europe
In the case of the visionary space, methods that bring more creative latitude, such as constructing exploratory future narratives
(i) organisational development enabled by new communicational methods and (ii) marketing issues of environmental technologies. Nina Wessberg is a senior scientist in Foresight and Socio-Technical change team at VTT.
A method for learning in networks. International Journal of Quality and Service Sciences 2, no. 1: 128 45.
These methods keyed on technical system parameters, somewhat more than on socioeconnomi system aspects. That is because they were driven initially by cold war considerations that concentrated on functional gains more than on cost
Rather, this method gathers information pursuant to the various steps, quite willing to revisit the earlier steps as one learns more about the emerging technology
The primary aim is to convey the method, with a secondary interest in the DSSC characterisation. 4. 1. Compose TDS (Step B) The TDS approach is akin to other technology innovation system approaches,
The research profiling method applied to nano-enhanced, thin-film solar cells. R&d Management 40, no. 2: 195 208.
Types and methods. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 6, nos. 1/2/3: 36 45.
Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group (Alan L. Porter, Brad Ashton, Guenter Clar, Joseph F. Coates, Kerstin Cuhls, Scottw.
methods to get information for discussion on strategies of sustainable growth through science and technology. It seeks to address the combination of outputs in an objective manner to identify expected areas of future innovation toward the desired future as well as related areas that are supposed to play a key part.
Design/methodology/approach Three investigative studies using the Delphi method, scenario and workshop were conducted independently in consideration of four global or national challenges.
and Technology foresight in Japan A variety of methods have been adopted in alignment with the objectives of a project including extrapolative/normative methods or qualitative/quantitative methods.
and scenario are three major methods that are used commonly around the world, and they are all qualitative (European commission, 2009).
Combining methods has been recognized as a precondition of successful foresight since a variety of combinations have been discussed
A tailor-made combination of different methods is employed widely to obtain implications for policy making (Cuhls et al.
The 9th Foresight exercise employed three different types of methods to meet this requirement: 1. Delphi that focuses on the technological aspect;
which were carried out independently by using the methods mentioned above. The three studies complement each other:
Scores are assigned to all the keywords by the term frequency-inverted document frequency (TF-IDF) method shown below that is generally used in text mining;
Correspondence analysis is used a widely method to grasp the relations between two different categories of data.
employing methods of Delphi, scenario, and workshop in consideration of the four global or national challenges.
could be regarded as an acceptable approach to take every advantage of method employed and position potential areas of future innovation with related areas to be promoted together in the whole picture.
Design/methodology/approach The authors compare strategic dialogues with existing dialogue instruments and investigate the relevance of their theoretical foundations to transferring foresight results into research policy making.
Originality/value The transfer of foresight results into research policy making has featured not prominently so far in discussions of foresight efforts and methods.
which established models and methods are suitable for such dialogues. Welp et al. 2006) have investigated this area for science-based stakeholder dialogues.
similar types of strategic dialogues can be employed as a method whenever consensus views of complex and controversial issues need to be generated based on constructive debate and mutual trust,
2006) consider three theoretical frameworks to derive effective methods and techniques in a range of dialogue situations.
Design/methodology/approach The foresight project is described and provides knowledge and analysis for a broader, national research prioritisation exercise.
The method used in the case study is to examine outputs from the foresight project conducted on global drivers and trends and their (national) implications for research and enterprise.
Section 3 presents the methodology used in The irish case study. The main results from the foresight exercise on global drivers,
context and methodology 3. 1 Introduction to the case study analysis The presentation and analysis of the case study below is based on my role as part of the research
create high quality jobs''3. 3. 3 Project methodology A methodology was designed and implemented that provided the main output required by Forfa's i e. a catalogue of global drivers and trends together with an analysis of their potential impact and opportunities for The irish research and enterprise base.
An iterative methodology, consisting of different stages of analysis of the drivers and trends, and a series of meetings and workshops, served to validate
Although not explicitly designed into the methodology at the outset the identification of grand challenges was introduced
Two methods were used during this phase:‘‘‘‘roundtable discussions''and interviews. Twelve roundtable discussions were facilitated with senior representation from a cross-section of policy areas, mainly from government ministries and agencies (approximately 90 participants in total.
Some of the challenges constructed through the methodology are aligned well with the larger themes discussed within Europe during recent years.
The method described in this paper is but one example of how work on grand challenges could be refined
Design/methodology/approach The three foresight studies used different methodologies depending on the project's goal. First the projects'interconnections are explained.
including their aims, structures, methodologies and results. Finally their influence on policy-making is evaluated. Findings The paper concludes that implementation of these three interrelated studies allows identification of S&t&i priorities that have a strong connection with policy decision making.
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 41 2. Methodology The methodology of the paper includes several steps:
Then we present the project's methodology (methods used, stages, number of experts engaged and main criteria for analysis). Finally the main results are described and illustrated.
''The methodology of this study included various expert and analytical techniques being engaged to prepare this S&t foresight (analytical research, bilbliometric and patent analysis, interviews with and polling of experts,
B survey methodologies; VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 43 B expert panels; B data analysis;
the methodology was adjusted also properly. An important new methodological aspect was the development of roadmaps, the identification of potential large-scale innovation projects,
this paper aims to address a structured analysis method for future technology trajectories and interactions by mapping
The objective of this paper is to develop an integrative method for systematically clustering, analyzing and visualizing the path for technology development and transformation.
Design/methodology/approach Delphi topics related to sustainable energy were collected from strategic foresight reports of Japan South korea and China,
Originality/value The integrative method in this research provides a way to combine both the advantage of strategic technology foresight
Therefore, it is crucial to develop a systematical method in which future trends can be detected easily, analyzed and visualized.
or standard classification system will make it easier to take a cross-foresight comparison and for analysis. Therefore, a structured mapping method that uses a worldwide accepted international classification system i e.
and has become a widely accepted and frequently used research method, especially for foresight or for future oriented research.
Delphi is a subjective-intuitive research method that aims at a consensus PAGE 56 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 on a particular topic among a group of experts,
) Previous publications have proved that the technique is established an method for foresight activities and that Delphi outperforms other group formats such as statistical groups or standard interacting groups in terms of effectiveness (Rowe and Wright, 1999).
It is assumed commonly that the method makes better use of group interaction (Rowe et al. 1991), whereby the questionnaire is the medium of interaction (Martino, 1983.
Field 1 Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy 2 Audiovisual technology 3 Telecommunications 4 Digital communication 5 Basic communication processes 6 Computer technology 7 IT methods
where the possible source technologies comprise technologies 7 (IT methods for management), 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry, polymers), 19 (Basic materials chemistry), 20 (Materials, metallurgy), 23 (Chemical engineering), 24 (Environmental technology
Source technologies comprise technologies 7 (IT methods for management), 12 (Control), 15 (Biotechnology), 17 (Macromolecular chemistry
''and‘‘Development nuclear waste processing method that can reduce the size of nuclear fuel after use
and the corresponding technology development will be an important priority. 4. Conclusion The main objective of this paper has been to address a structured analysis method.
Also, the method combines both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence, by utilizing the results derived from the former as a target for analysis
and rigour in methods. Hence, devising an FTA project requires careful planning, and well-reasoned decisions on its main features/elements:
its geographical scope, time horizon, themes, methods, participants, budget, and other resources, target audience, communication strategy, etc.
but not a uniform and proven FTA methodology, to be followed by all FTA projects. All FTA projects are given unique
In other words, it would be a mistake to search for a fixed set of methods in the sense of one size fits all (or best practice.
we don't know to a sufficient extent what combination of methods/tools works best in a particular context.
(i) the perceived policy needs/opportunities to be tackled by FTA,(ii) the chosen FTA APPROACH and its methods and (iii) the policy governance sub-system,
Excessive use of quantitative methods is likely to severely constrain participation. Practical experience clearly shows that the potential participants of an FTA exercise are simply too busy to attend training courses just for the sake of being sophisticated familiar with FTA METHODS.
an important part of the FTA toolkit, namely foresight, would be eclipsed in case the use of advanced quantitative methods is declared'always necessary,
In sum, the relevance and appropriateness of FTA METHODS to tackle the perceived needs should have a much higher weight when designing an FTA project than the‘elegance'of methods.
which these methods are applied). Also, when evaluating an FTA project, costs and benefits of certain methods (their‘fit'to the context), on the one hand,
and their actual conduct (methodological rigour, efficiency, transparency,‘fairness',representation, etc.),on the other, should be assessed separately.
it is much more important to apply relevant methods in a rigorous manner than assemble a set of highly sophisticated methods,
and methods can better support policy-makers since societal challenges and complex interrelated systems require a more holistic and systemic understanding of situations.
a) gradual integration in contexts where convergence of QL and QT methods seems promising, (b) use of new disciplines entering FTA to exchange practices and increase synergies,(c) support of mutual understanding by clarifying strengths and weaknesses of QL and QT methods,(d) sharing
successful cases and good practices to build trust,(e) creation of technological and methodological interfaces between QL and QT approaches,(f) setting up of multidisciplinary teams from the very beginning of an exercise
there is a major limitation of this method to assess a given technology. It is an oftenobseerve fact that technologies change their course because of (unpredictable) changes in the broader socioeconomic context (fluctuations in demand
Two papers from the same school Hamarat et al. 11 and Kwakkel and Pruit 12 address the need for novel methods and techniques to support adaptive policy-making.
and Analysis (EMA) is a methodology for analysing dynamic and complex systems and supporting long-term decision-making under uncertainty through computational experiments.
Hence, the implication for future emerging technologies is that the methodology and practice of FTA should consider the governance dimension from the beginning by acknowledging that monitoring
7 L. Gao, A l. Porter, J. Wang, S. Fang, X. Zhang, T. Ma, W. Wang, L. Huang, Technology life cycle analysis method
Received 14 may 2011 Received in revised form 9 july 2012 Accepted 3 september 2012 Available online 8 november 2012 The FTA COMMUNITY relies on a set of disciplines and methods,
For the 2011 edition, the Scientific Committee decided to focus specifically on the combination of quantitative and qualitative methodologies.
and a methodology as quantitative when applying statistical/mathematical tools. In contrast, we define data as qualitative
and sounds) and a methodology as qualitative when not relying on statistical/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 The views expressed are purely those of the authors
A participatory method, regardless of the qualitative or quantitative data it uses, is one in which the outcome requires the active interaction of different types of stakeholders.
1 foresight practitioners have concentrated traditionally on participatory methods based on qualitative data, on the grounds that quantitative extrapolation from past data is not sufficient to address the uncertainties of the future
considering qualitative and participatory approaches as a second best option, to which we are compelled somehow to refer until adequate quantitative methods arise.
in the social sciences the mixing-methods debate has advanced considerably 2 6 and is illustrated well by the existence of dedicated publication outlets such as the Journal of Mixed Methods.
Nevertheless in the discussions at the 2011 FTA Conference some trends were identified suggesting that methodological combination may potentially become more common amongst FTA scholars and practitioners.
at the same time, the improved availability of S&t and innovation indicators and the advances in quantitative methods provide more input for quantitative analysis;
and methods can only but better support policy-makers in their job. These tendencies raise important questions on the value and scope of combining methods,
as well as on the reasons why, such combination, within the FTA COMMUNITY, seems to proceed at a lower rate than in other fields.
or even tap different domains of knowing 8. A detailed discussion on the reasons for applying a combination of methods in social sciences goes beyond the scope of this paper,
However, one must be aware that the relevance of quantitative methods may lie more in their systematic process of comparing policy alternatives under different scenarios,
and Cahill 1 for further details on the origin and definition of the acronym FTA. 2 Quantitative participatory methods could for instance relate to the online sharing of big amounts of data,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 qualitative) as an imaginative projection of current knowledge in which formal methods and techniques play a subsidiary role (p. 753.
and what is crucial is to understand the opportunities that different methodologies can offer. In order to better understand those opportunities,
Although there have been many efforts on classification of methods and on the possible combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches 22 25 the literature provides little evidence on systematic comparison
and Porter 27 argue that this absence of stocktaking analysis is mirrored also in the lack of guidance on how to evaluate FTA projects that combine different methodologies.
Yet, evaluation on methods is important in order to identify‘good practices 'and to contribute to the robustness of FTA, in terms of process, content, and impacts.
Since its first edition the International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis devoted part of its attention to the development of new tools and methods, novel use of existing methods and (new) disciplines applied by FTA.
Despite the lack of systematic investigation, there are clear signs of interest from the FTA COMMUNITY in combining methods.
An interesting one is to group FTA EXERCISES based on the level of integration of qualitative and quantitative methods.
Typically, when different methods/tools are applied within the same project, links consist mainly of using the results of one part as an input into another part.
Quantitative methods can also be used to process qualitative judgments for scenario design 30,31. Valette 32 points at opportunities for foresight exercises that combine expert-based contrasted socioeconomic and policy scenarios (qualitative part) and a mathematical quantification of the impacts of the alternative scenarios (quantitative part)( p. 239.
The mapping identified only three quantitative methods (bibliometrics, modelling and simulation, trend extrapolation), highlighting that they were combined with literature review, scenarios and expert panels.
Remarkably, evidence stemming from the forecasting communities on cases combining qualitative and quantitative methods is limited rather,
suggesting that the need for combining methods is less felt than in the foresight communities, possibly because foresight is more recent and still wants to prove its usefulness. 388 K. Haegeman et al./
Quantitative methods can also be used to identify outliers (outstanding observations) which could be revised further by experts as potential wild cards.
Comparison of outcomes of qualitative and quantitative approaches Participants at the 2011 International Seville Conference on FTA raised the potential of the use of qualitative and quantitative methods for identifying
and methods of social scanning and prediction markets could be used to improve professional forecasting and foresight in an era of complex phenomena and disruptive events with high level of uncertainties.
both for better explaining (quantitative and qualitative) methodologies adopted and for results obtained. A method that makes use of visualisation techniques is the application of strategic design in addressing societal challenges.
It explores and visualises‘the architecture of problems 'and can offer a wider framework in which quantitative
and strategic design could offer opportunities for more integrated use of methodologies. 7 3. 3. Full integration of qualitative and quantitative FTA A third type of exercise goes beyond the use of interfaces,
but more generally also in social science where most reports of mixed methods studies report either parallel
the authors believe that such deep integration of methods can potentially enhance both the analytical depth and the policy impact of fta activities.
(which is confined not to the FTA COMMUNITY) on the type of knowledge that qualitative and quantitative methodologies can produce and on the value of combining them 45 49.
this method is more suitable for FTA for businesses. However, it has been applied by the Finnish innovation Fund to develop holistic understanding of a challenge with issues related to ageing, education,
In Section 2 we pointed to the need to understand the opportunities that different methodologies can offer in collecting knowledge about possible futures 22.
Efforts to address this cultural clash have focused often on the adaptation of the methods and tools commonly used by the two communities,
Misconceptions within the FTA COMMUNITY In order to better understand the pros and cons of different methodologies, three implicit misconceptions within the FTA COMMUNITY need to be addressed.
In the absence of market values for such goods and services, valuation practices commonly recur to Contingent Valuation Methods (CVM),
as participatory methods can be (and in fact are adopted in the framework of quantitative analyses as well.
with longer-term priorities for research and policy that address more fundamental barriers to methodological integration. 5. 1. Overcoming short-term barriers One way to extend the application of quantitative methods in FTA
Addressing practical incompatibilities between both approaches may also gradually change preferences of FTA practitioners for specific methods in favour of integrated approaches.
Below we sketch a possible agenda to overcome the main short-term barriers regarding methods selection and misconceptions. 5. 1. 1. Methods selection The selection of methods in FTA remains largely a context-driven issue,
when different types of methods are applied where it is important to combine or integrate both approaches
making use of complementary and/or contradictory features of methods. Given the lack of identified good practices
one could consider developing a starter kit for combining different methodologies. In social 10 The lack of human capital skilled in both quantitative
'11 Interestingly, our reflection on the epistemology skills trust triangle is in line with Bryman 62 who focuses on the integration of qualitative and quantitative data and methods in social sciences.
Based on interviews with social scientists he identifies eight barriers to integration of qualitative and quantitative data and methods,
perceptions on the expectations of different audiences, methodological preferences of the (mixed methods) researcher, structure of the research project, different timelines for different method types, skill specialisms, the nature of the data, ontological differences,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 sciences, Cameron 71 developed the Five Ps Framework, 13 which provides a mixed-methods starter kit,
It could be adapted to serve as an FTA starter kit for combining methods. In addition, a short-term research agenda could help addressing practical incompatibilities that hamper the combination of different methods.
A possible item on such research agenda could be screening specific sectors where quantitative FTA APPROACHES are represented traditionally stronger, in view of identifying good practices.
misuse of methods should be avoided and transparency increased. In particular, from the start of an FTA PROCESS, it is necessary to clarify the definition of terms used and the basic set of assumptions, on which the exercise (in its quantitative and qualitative components) rests.
Such stocktaking endeavour should compare FTA EXERCISES according to a set of variables (such as goals, methodologies, time horizon15) and provide both methodological and evaluation guidelines.
Ultimately, what matters is that methods and tools provide as far as possible a 13 The 5 P's Framework includes Paradigms, Pragmatism, Praxis,
and the development of frameworks that support the selection and implementation of an appropriate combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and tools in a given context, can enhance shared knowledge,
White 75 suggests that combining methods mainly needs mutual professional respect. Looking at collaboration in the wider context of collaborative governance,
evidence in this paper has shown practical examples of combinations of these types of methods. The different and highly heterogeneous contributions to the 2011 International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis in this area share a common bottom line:
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