Technology life cycle analysis method based on patent documents Lidan Gao a b,, Alan L. Porter c, Jing Wang d, Shu Fang a, Xian Zhang a, Tingting Ma e, Wenping Wang e, Lu Huang e
and hope that would help decision makers estimate its future development trends. 2. Methodology The model that we build to calculate the TLC for an object technology includes the following steps:
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 We propose a normalisation method with two steps to pre-process the original data.
This method can be used not only in NBS but also in other technology fields, since data of the all indicators can be downloaded from most patent databases.
and obtain more data to validate the method. Second, we did not consider the technology type.
Many papers have pointed to the desirability of improving the accuracy of trend projection methods 36 39.
How might this TLC estimation method fit in with other FTA techniques? Porter 40 suggested considering the use of multiple FTA METHODS tailored to the type of foresight study.
He distinguishes 13 method families. TLC is intriguing in that it combines aspects of several of those:
J. Banks, Forecasting and Management of Technology, 2nd Edition John Wiley, New york, NY, 2011.6 A l. Porter, M. Rader, Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study
types and methods, Int. J. Foresight Innov. Policy 6 (1/2/3)( 2010) 36 45.
Among these new capabilities the TFA Methods Working group has identified recently 1 three main converging areas of development:
tales from the frontier (new methods for TFA) and importing ideas (methods and tools adopted from other fields), respectively.
Both cases borrow necessarily the discussion of methods and tools that have grown explosively in recent years related to the biosciences, bioinformatics and evolutionary approaches.
Among the needs for TFA envisioned by the TFA Methods Working group we find the questioning about the validity of the analogy between technological evolution and biological evolution (Ref. 1, pp. 299:
and the manifold convergence of information and molecular technologies that are contributing enormously to new insights in simulation methods and evolutionary programming.
the amount of practical work using simulation methods is still a dwarf T. C. Devezas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1140 one.
and using simulation methods in this field. Among the reasons for this lack of practical-oriented works we have referred to:
for short) that uses so-called dsoft computingt models of complex adaptive systems (CAS) that encompasses several methods of simulation
however, that although this methodology is being used by a few research groups worldwide, it is impossible to make justice to all efforts of all groups found in the literature,
The most important system's property unraveled by this method is the existence of scale-free networks,
It is a numerical simulation method for the search of complex technology spaces based on percolation theory,
which method is suited best for purposes of simulating technological evolution and/or for developing useful tools for technological forecasting.
Altogether the application of these methods within the limits imposed by their own characteristics has helped researchers in unraveling some until now hidden properties of technological systems.
among the above mentioned methods, cellular automata is the poorest for more T. C. Devezas/Technological forecasting
besides the improvements in the computational methods, is to incorporate in the simulations some of the general evolutionary principles that were outlined in the present paper,
References 1 TFA Methods Working group, Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the fields and new methods, Technol.
Concluding remarks are made in Section 5. 2. Methodology: the adaptive policy-making framework and the Adaptive Robust Design approach 2. 1. The adaptive policy-making framework Under deep uncertainty,
and requires the further development of specific tools and methods for its operationalization 7. More specifically,
which methods and techniques could be employed in each of the steps. That is, adaptive policy-making needs to move from being a high level concept captured in a flowchart,
is proposed and illustrated below. 2. 2. The Adaptive Robust Design approach EMA is a methodology that uses computational experiments to combine plausible models
we use an adapted version of the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM) 39 42 one that can deal with categorical and continuous uncertainties
whereas through the utilization of computationally more efficient methods such as PRIM, more efficient sampling techniques can be employed. 3. Illustration:
Other rule induction methods, such as decision tree induction, Classification and Regression Trees (CART) 60, could be applied equally well to this task.
a promising method to deal with deep uncertainty, in: Technology policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2008, p. 285.37 E. Pruyt, J. Kwakkel, A bright future for system dynamics:
. J. Conover, A comparison of three methods for selecting values of input variables in the analysis of output from a computer code, Technometrics 21 (1979) 239 245.56 Eric Jones, Travis Oliphant
In his Phd research, he focuses on long term decision-making under deep uncertainty using the Exploratory Modeling and Analysis method.
The various fields covered by the umbrella term FTA have at their disposal a wide variety of methods, techniques, and approaches.
to method uncertainties (e g. different modeling methods) using computational models as scenario generators. This paper explores the potential of EMA for FTA.
Exploratory Modeling and Analysis (EMA) is a research methodology that uses computational experiments to analyze complex and uncertain systems 12,13.
Many well-established techniques, such as Monte carlo sampling, factorial methods, and optimization techniques, can be usefully
Next, we tried to identify subspaces in the overall uncertainty space that show a high concentration of crises runs using the Patient Rule Induction Method 31 33.
A wide variety of methods and techniques are being explored 34. Application domains include chemical process monitoring and control,
Noise Area Equivalent Method (AEM) a model that approximates Integrated Noise Model results 40. Emissions Emission Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS) the FAA required tool for emission analysis 41.
Third party risk Methodology developed by the National Air Traffic Services (NATS) for third-party risk 42,43 the NATS methodology has been extended to apply to multiple runways 49,50.
EMA offers practitioners a model-based method for handling such situations. Rather than developing a single or a small number of model-based estimates for a phenomenon of interest,
In light of all this, EMA thus appears to be a useful addition to the portfolio of methods
A Promising Method to Deal with Deep uncertainty, in: Faculty of technology, Policy, and Management, Delft University of Technology, Delft, 2008.14 J. H. Miller, Active nonlinear tests (ANTS) of complex simulation models, Manag.
A Methodology for Calculation Individual Risk due to Aircraft Accidents Near Airports, National Air Traffic Services Ltd, London, UK, 2000.44 C. Hamarat, J
Section 2 sets out the methodology of how we use reflexive inquiry to analyze the scenario case studies.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 2. Material and methods How can we learn about orienting innovation systems from future scenario practice?
We use the word practice to describe the implementation or execution of a concept, plan, methodology or theory.
Reflexivity as a methodology 28 questions representation by suggesting that we are constantly constructing meaning and social realities as we interact with others
each with their own methodologies the predictive, the eventualities and the visionary mode of thinking, see Table 1 for a more elaborate description.
the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,
and therefore it needs to be more assured of its claims to knowledge (methodology). For instance, forecasting and modeling methods have a focus on
what is known and what is unknown. This can encompass ‘What is likely',in terms of probabilities for example,
the boundaries between approaches have become increasingly blurred by techniques that make use of both kinds of methods and information 51.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The concept of the multiple-axes method is based on one of the approaches used by Pierre Wack 52.
The Delphi method is developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method, which relies on a panel of experts.
It is a method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals,
the scenario cases are evaluated using the three complementary questions on policy change mentioned in Section 2 (Material and methods).
An overview of our findings is summarized in the subsequent sub-sections (sub-sections 4. 1 4. 3). Each of these subsections includes a description of representation issues linked with the approach and methods used, input, process and main outcome.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 our analysis a better understanding of the linkages between scenario design, methods used and related outcomes.
This method is excellent for presenting a rich picture of multiple facets of a potential future:
But these can inhibit the understanding of the problems and the use of appropriate methods to their solution 47.
i e. where particular methods are applied to‘solve'particular puzzles. Particular choices and uses of techniques will be influenced by the context in
In this sense, no single discipline or particular prescribed set of methods can be considered to be optimal.
Following a reflexive inquiry methodology in the analysis of the scenario cases listed in Appendix 1,
and the multi-axes method using factors of high uncertainty and high impact. Based on our reflexive inquiry used to analyze scenario exercises in their context
However, it is also crucial to keep in mind the limitations of the scenario methodology 80.
Hence, by using a reflexive methodology we were able to create a heuristic to learn from the process of developing
Relat. 56 (2003) 983 1003.28 M. Alvesson, K. Sköldberg, Reflexive Methodology: New Vistas for Qualitative Research Towards a Reflexive Methodology, Sage, London, 2000.29 P. De Smedt, Interactions between foresight and decision-making, in:
Proceedings of the Second International Seville Seminar on Future-oriented technology analysis: Impact of fta Approaches on Policy and Decision-making, Seville, 28 29,september 2006, 2006.30 H. Lawson, Reflexivity, The Postmodern Predicament, Open Court, La Salle, IL, 1985.31 J
Furthermore, he is an expert in foresight and scenario methodologies, where his interests are focused on how to handle trans-disciplinary conflicts and scientific uncertainty.
the early stages of FTA relied on expert-based methods such as technology intelligence and technology forecasting to define the field
In this paper, FTA is used as the umbrella term covering subfields such as technology foresight, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping and technology assessment cf. the list in 29 and combining tools, ranging fromquantitative methods
the NNI uses advanced strategic planning methods and tools and acts as a kind of umbrella organization for pooling heterogeneous future-oriented activities.
The implication for future emerging technologies is that the methodology and practice of FTA should consider the governance dimension from the beginning by acknowledging that monitoring
I. Miles, Methods and tools contributing to FTA: a knowledge-based perspective, Futures 43 (2011) 265 278.29 M. Rader, A l. Porter, Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study types, in:
C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R. Barré (Eds. Fitting Future-oriented technology analysis Methods to Study Types, Springer, Berlin Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 25 40.30 A l. Porter, W. B. Ashton, G. Clar, J
. F. Coates, K. Cuhls, S w. Cunningham, K. Ducatel, P. vanderduin, L. Georghiou, T. Gordon, H. Linstone, V. Marchau, G. Massari,
K. Cuhls, A. Beyer-Kutzner, W. Ganz, P. Warnke, The methodology combination of a national foresight process in Germany, Technol.
and methods and practices of futuring. 452 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
and discuss lessons learnt in terms of methodology. Section 4 presents conclusions for future applications of transformative foresight. 2. INFU methodology The INFU project envisioned
and discussed possible future innovation landscapes together with innovation actors from a wide range of backgrounds. In order to do justice to the transformative nature of the subject
In particular the policy actors welcomed the fact that INFU underpinned the exploration of fundamental changes in the innovation landscape rather than isolated responses to individual trends. 3. 2. Lessons learnt methodology From a methodological point of view the aim of the INFU project was to contribute towards building
This leads us to the conclusion that some of the features of the INFU methodology proved indeed suitable for tackling structural transformation in foresight exercises.
The open research approach of subcontracting mini panel co-ordinators without any constraints on the visioning methodology
Intuition-based methods fostering creative processes may be needed to capture structural transformation. The framework of dimensions of change used to assess the results of the signal screening phase enabled the INFU team to systematically question anticipatory assumptions and to reintroduce opposing views in a reflexive manner.
methods and combinations of methods are noted. Dealing with disruptive transformations is seen as the key forward challenge for the practice of FTA. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Priority-setting methodologies normally begin with a fixed choice set and even where they do not,
not because of a lack of methods the field is rich with them but because there is a lack of agreement as to
Combinations of methods are fairly common but very many of these are of the form‘Scenarios plus X'.Apart from combining recognised FTA METHODS,
also cited as Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group) Technology Futures analysis: Towards integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting & Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303 2004.2 F. Scapolo, New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis the 2004 EU US
The papers can also be differentiated on the basis of methodology. Some papers proceed by integrating insights and concepts from other disciplines such as sociology,
and methods for appreciating global impact. The Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures jou r nal h o mep ag e:
not only was there considerable confusion and conflict at the level of methods, how to think about the future (epistemology),
and deterministic roadmapping approaches to the future gave way to a growing awareness and acceptance of other methods,
and implementation of FTA and foresight avoid incoherence or even contradictions between methods and outcomes.
A second related weakness is signalled by the difficulty of making a credible case for the links between the case studies and the associated methodologies.
The tolerance for deviant ideas also has implications for the selection of methods that include stakeholders in a foresight process.
For each of the six regions, Keenan and Popper compare issues such as scale of participation in the foresight project and methods used.
such a categorisation of methods must be considered as only indicative. See Fig. 2 in Section 4. 3. One of the clearest observations in Keenan
and Popper's analysis of regional styles in the use of foresight methods is oriented that interaction methods,
At the same time, an expertise-based method, such as the Delphi method, is in P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 9 common use in South Europe and South america and totally absent among the top 10 foresight methods in Northwest Europe and North america.
and utilised interaction-oriented methods, such as futures workshops, citizen panels and consensus conferences. It must also be noted that together with the other Nordic countries,
Nevertheless, the Globalisation Council's process included both expertiseorieente foresight methods (expert panels, expert discussion papers), evidence-oriented foresight methods (indicators and fact reports) and interaction-oriented foresight methods
L. B. Rasmussen (Ed.),Facilitating Change Using Interactive Methods in Organisations, Communities, and Networks, Polyteknisk Forlag, DK, 2011.14 E. H. Schein, Organisational Culture and Leadership, 3rd ed.,John Wiley & Sons, NY, 2004.15 G. Morgan
the consideration of scenario analysis as a method includes both the development and the use of scenarios.
which we mean from the point of view of experts on the production or methodology of foresight studies.
All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.010 method is used in the creation of strategic policy and (2)
the use of the scenario analysis method makes policy-makers more aware of the future, future changes and the policy implications,
The aim is to increase insight into topics such as the level of acquaintance and experience with scenario analysis methods in strategic policy-making,
the motives policy-makers have for using the scenario analysis method, and the perceived levers and barriers.
in which phase (s) of the policy cycle is the scenario analysis method used, and how and in which phase (s is added the value perceived.
scenario analysis methods can be used in the different phases of the policy cycle 1, 2, 4, 6, 9 11.
not only in the impact of using scenario analysis methods in the different phases of the policy cycle,
How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of scenario analysis methods? What are their motives for applying scenario analysis methods?
How are used the results in the strategic policy process, and in which phase (s) specifically? What, according to policy-makers, is added the value of using foresight methods in strategic policy processes?
because they may be involved in the development phase of scenarios as well as the usage phase of a foresight study. 2. 2. Methods
Each case involved experiences with the application of scenario analysis methods at a regional and/or local policy level (including municipalities and regional authorities.
whereas the evaluation in the national studies the evaluation was more about how users applied these methods
and how the valued these methods as such. Nevertheless, the findings at the local level can be put in perspective by comparing them with the findings at the national level,
because in both analyses, our aim was to ascertain how futures studies methods are being used in practice by governments.
the researcher trained the officials in the use of the scenario analysis method, while in the Overschie case, the researcher facilitated the scenario development
N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 20 3. 1. How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of the scenario analysis method?
In most cases, policy-makers at the local level are of the opinion that local organisations lack experience using scenario analysis methods.
Especially at the level of city councils, it is hard to find examples of strategic policy activities using scenario analysis methods,
it can be difficult to find out how these methods relate to other methods with which they may be more familiar (such as SWOT-analyses,
. What are the motivations of policy makers for applying the scenario analysis method? In all local cases, the main ambition was to use scenarios to raise awareness of a changing future
and process-driven motives for using the scenario analysis method in the different phases (see also the distinction between process-oriented and product-oriented development of scenarios 10).
When these methods are used not and strategic policies have to be developed, future-related assumptions are made in an intuitive and opaque way.
By using more systematic methods, policy-makers are forced to be transparent about the assumptions underlying their policies
By using scenario analysis methods they learned to look at alternatives, which was seen as a new way of thinking in most organisations.
Finally, in all the local case studies, the policy-makers indicated that future exploration methods were used in a suboptimal fashion.
and expertise, making it difficult for policy-makers to know which types of scenario analysis methods and scenario frameworks are suitable to the needs of the strategic policy process.
When people are not familiar with the scenario analysis method, steering elements are implemented sometimes in the scenarios,
and facilitating the process of gaining support of policy-makers and politicians for the method and the results of the foresight process.
by introducing the theoretical background of the method and/or by delivering content for the foresight analysis. One of the lessons learnt with respect to external assistance was that,
so that ownership and support for the methods being used and the results can grow. According to policy-makers, the challenge is to present
despite the importance and wide range of methods, the quality is determined also by the status, credibility and expertise of the people involved.
and conclusions We can conclude that the use of futures studies methods at the local and the national level differ,
Different methods of foresight (for example different types of qualitative scenarios) are available, different reasons and motives for setting up a foresight study may be legitimate,
This means that relevant stakeholders should be involved in some form of dialogue (methods vary) across different stages of the process to share their views regarding achievements and their meaning,
During the initial discussions many project partners argued that the best way to engage with their informal network of contacts would be through methods other than those initially proposed, such as interviews and smaller workshops.
Therefore, the methodology set up (Fig. 2) for the IMS2020 foresight process was defined in a way that would ensure the highest relevance to inputs coming from the industrial community.
and to combine different methods for engaging numerous participants in diverse roles and with different contributions.
The methodology employed consisted of nine main phases: 1. Mapping activity to identify and refine KAT dimensions,
and which methods are suited best to particular situations. The framework also helps to focus discussions related to the design
and selecting methods for structuring the dialogues. Table 1 Lessons learned. Activities conducted within IMS 2020 Guiding principles for global foresight Understanding interconnected innovation systems Responsiveness towards diverse languages and cultures Capacity to reconfigure international networks A glocal impact orientation
Stakeholders Selection process Type of network Methods for engaging and informing Project partners Expertise Formal Face-to-face meetings, video/teleconference, Groove, email,
Institute of Innovation research, 2006.7 TFAMWP (Technology Futures analysis Methods Working group), Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods, Technological forecasting and Social Change 71 (2004) 287 303.8 T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, V. Brummer, Foresight for European Coordination:
methods and approaches Four of the six contributions address a specific theme of the Seminar on the evolution over the years of FTA assumptions, methods and approaches.
Of course, this variety might suggest that different objectives, methodologies, and expected impacts can somehow be related to different contexts and conditions.
methodologies and selected applications,'Blind illustrates three methodologies for performing Regulatory foresight. Regulatory foresight addresses approaches allowing future fields of regulatory actions to be identified,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 457 461 The contribution describes methodologies and approaches developed for the purpose.
The conclusions provide a brief critical evaluation of the methods and an identification of requirements for future research.
continuous interaction with current/anticipated users and a better integration of methods and approaches from different fields, including Foresight, user/market research and human-centred product design.
'consisted of a multi-method research approach in three phases, resulting in six persona profiles,
It is argued that participatory methods are effective at stimulating the transfer of knowledge, mutual learning and collective visioning 4. New (systemic) policy instruments have been/are being developed to facilitate such interaction between relevant stakeholders 5
Through a better introduction of the future based on Foresight theory and practice and through an integration of methods and approaches from other fields, including user/market research
'A multi-method approach was used to stimulate users'imaginative potential. Finally, Section 4 discusses a number of experiences and conclusions from the empirical studies in the light of the proposed shift towards more Innovation Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes. 2. Towards Innovation Foresight (IF?
Moreover, traditional user research methods tend to be focused on the‘here and now'and in most cases,
Lead User methods for example, represent a specific category of methods that do include the future as a component
and creative, generative methods. We now zoom in on two empirical studies in which current users have been involved closely in the exploration, imagination and creation of (future) TV experiences.
Lead User identification is a method for finding unfulfilled needs (the first Lead User characteristic) with high expected benefits (the second Lead User characteristic.
) 3. 2. 1. Methodological approach A multi-method approach was used to stimulate users'creative and imaginative potential in the IF process.
The cultural probing method allows researchers to gather subjective information from the users in an everyday context.
based on a combination of traditional and more creative methods. In both studies, information and intelligence concerning real experiences, practices and visions from a user perspective served as starting points.
In Study 2, the design-inspired personas-method was combined with cultural probing, using creativity as a tool to K. De Moor et al./
Lead User methods form an exception in this respect as they involve users with clear and distinct future needs.
etc. if they are supported and stimulated to do so through adequate tools and methods. Moreover the distinct user profiles were found to have different expectations
It represents an approach for bringing the future into inclusive innovation processes in a more systematic and comprehensive way, based on Foresight theory and practice and through integrating methods and tools from Foresight, traditional user/market research and human-centred
and integration of methods that are relevant for IF purposes, taking into account the diversity of user types.
it is likely that some methods will be more successful than others in supporting a user to voice his or her future ideas, visions, expectations.
suitable tools and methods, user characteristics and other variables that co-determine the design of a concrete study,
The second phase (strategic diagnostic) combines a method for analysing business environments (SWOT analysis) with a method for constructing scenarios (the Global Business Network.
The Global Business Network (GBN) method enables an assessment of the resources and competencies needed in relation to the trends that ought to mould the future of the business.
when used in conjunction with other models such as the BSC, the Quality Function Deployment 26 and the GBN method 27.
‘‘inside'information that allowed us to both validate the methodology proposed and to identify needs for improvements.
the latter being responsible for describing the capability of a firm's knowledge system to solve problems using organisational learning. 4 In the proposed system the method of perpetual budget 38 offers such characteristics as it supports the analysis of cause
This method allows for greater flexibility when updating or changing targets, irrespective of established budgetary planning.
Annex 3. Commonkads methodology. Adapted from Schreiber et al. 35. Adapt ed from Schreiber et al. 35 Organization Modeltask Modelagen t Modelknowledge Modelcommunic atio n Modeldesign Modelanalysis of the Org anizati on's Enviro nment Require ments Specif icati
and implementing Sun Tzu's the art of business management strategies on QFD methodology, Managerial Auditing Journal 15 (2000) 68 76.27 J. Ogilvy,
The Commonkads Methodology, MIT Press, Cambridge, 2002.36 B. J. Witcher, R. Butterworth, Hoshin kanri at Hewlett-packard, Journal of General Management 25 (2000) 70
and methods in horizon scanning: lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues, Science and Public policy (2012)( forthcoming.
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