predicting and/or explaining future developments with the means of different methods and techniques, e g.,, scenario analysis, technology forecasting, roadmapping,
and characterize‘networked foresight'as the basis for further research. 3. Methodology 3. 1. Study design For analyzing the link between futures research
New businesses and markets are explored using a variety of methods, including methodologies combining scenario analysis, multi-issue actor analysis,
roadmapping and target costing 39, business modeling and future studies. The outcome of the applied futures research methods is broadened substantially in projects with interdisciplinary character and a combination of knowledge and insight from various industries.
and other studies Program 2. 2 Business field exploration Explores predefined business fields with various innovation management methods, i e.,
The aim is to create a continuously developing organization by establishing state-of-the-art methodologies and structures that improve
and methods. 4. 3. 4. Leadership In contrast to most other publicly funded research instruments of the European commission,
Design and Methods, 4th ed.,Sage Publications, Inc.,London/New delhi/Singapore/Thousand Oaks, 2009.44 R. K. Yin, Qualitative Research From start to finish, The Guilford Press
and decision-making FTA is a generic label that groups a number of forward-looking methodologies used to better T Karel Haegeman is at the Institute for Prospective Technologicca Studies, Knowledge for Growth Unit, Edificio
whether or not a methodology belongs under the FTA umbrella. But they could also be considered as qualitattiv criteria,
and could become a 14th family of methods in Scapolo and Porter's classificcation The scores on the six principles can also differ for the same tool,
as is shown in the examples in Table 2. Some authors recommend the use of speciifi combinations of tools and approaches in order to build more robust methodologies (Rader and Porteer 2008.
Table 1. Future-oriented technology analysis methods (Scapolo and Porter, 2008) Families of methods Sample methods Creativity approaches Theory of Inventive Problem solving (TRIZ), future workshops, visioning Monitoring and intelligence
and private organisations are able to deal with the issue of uncertainty by incorpooratin forward-looking methodologies into their decision-making processes.
their methodologies contribute to the convergence of a variety of forward-looking tools. Furthermore, by exploring new mixes of FTA TOOLS they contribute to the creation of FTA techniques that are more adaptive to clients'needs and to context characteristiics Last but not least, this special section also contribbute to the identification of key success factors in the application of these techniques.
and exchanging best practices and methodologies. Adaptive foresight is applied by Abadie et al. to the highly uncertain environment of the European creative content industries as part of the European Perspectives on the Information society project.
The project used a tailored combination of methods in order to respond to clients'needs and the particular characteristics of a fast changing sector.
in order to improve our understanding of possible futurres The limits of current methodologies and the need for further methodology development in this area are highlighted,
due to the fact that the project did not lead to direct policy measures. The paper by Calof and Smith contributes to the definition of successful foresight studies by identifyiin a set of critical success factors for governmentlle foresight
beyond selecting an appropriate budget and methodology. They conclude that foresight prograamme need a clearly identified client,
The methods combined bibliometric analysis, an online survey and a scenario building in order to better understand the factors involved in the initiation and spread of emerging diseases.
Methods and Impacts. Springer: Berlin, Heidelberg, New york. Eerola, A and I Miles 2008. Methods and tools contributing to FTA.
Paper presented at Third International Seville Conferennc on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 16 17 october 2008, Seville, Spain.
Methodology The objectives of the joint horizon scanning pilot were mainly to: exchange experiences and know-how on horizon scanning at the national level;
compare working methods and methodologies used by the different horizon scans and formulate recommendations for improvement;
Exchange of experiences, know-how and comparison methods Descriptions of horizon scanning processes in a number of countries were collected
and lead to the joint development of methodologies for using and carrying out the scans. Discussion and conclusion All three scans delivered issue lists which overlapppe considerably
including a robust methodology so that their effectiveness could be properly evaluatted The purpose of such guidelines would not be to limit their use to one particular context,
and the I-KNOW projeec that both focus more on new methodologies to identify and interpret weak signals and wild cards.
or a research funding scheme (as in Denmark) or to identify new crosscutting questions that need further forwardloookin attention with other methods and transdiscipliinar approaches (clusters of issues, as in The netherlands).
Methodology of Boundary work at the interface of science policy and society, basis for a manual, RMNO, ISBN 90.72377.62.1.
Available from<http://www. rmno. nl/files content/Methodology%20engels%20web. pdf>,last accessse 1 june 2009.
The novelty of the methodology lies in the mix of tools used, the embedding in an adaptive foresight framework and the implementation of a real-time Delphi
the EPIS project foressa the design and implementation of a combinatiio of methods to explore the future evolution of the creative content industries
) Moreover, rather than specifying all stages of the methodology in full detaai at the outset, a stepwise approach was allowed followwed It new insights on the nature of potentially disruptive changes,
and allowed the methods to be used in the next stage of the FTA PROCESS to be specified. In other words, the methodological details were adjusste in‘real-time'depending on the knowledge generated in the course of the process.
and methodology used to envision the future of the European creative content sector, as well as the quality of the main results achieved.
we preseen our methodology, analysing its most important Fabienne Abadie is a scientific officer at the Joint research Centre Institute for Prospective Technological Studies workiin on techno-economic foresight studies and the impact of ICTS on the Information society.
and methodology chosen succeeded in building strategic knowledge in support of a sustainabbl European creative content sector in the future.
Adaptive foresight applied to creative content Choice of methodology In order to achieve our objective of delivering forwaardlooking intelligence on the future evolution of the creative content industries,
) This methodology consists of five main building blocks as shown in Figure 2: a sector analysiis a Delphi survey, a scenario process leading to an analysis of issues and a final policy analysis.
experts) Workshop (stakeholders) Workshop (restricted, client) Impact assessment Figure 2. Overview of methodology building blocks Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010
To achieve such an objective a method based on identifying weak signals would be required a domain which is still in its infancy (Mendonça et al.
Analysis of issues The fourth step of our methodology consisted of the analysis of the scenarios with a view to identifyyin issues that may have an impact on the future sustainability of the sector
technology issues (e g. usability, methods and tools for multi-channel production; regulatory issues (e g. balance between monopoly and competition, digital rights;
However, the well-justified and adapted combinatiio of methods was not completely appropriate to answer some of the client's ambitious policy-related demands.
As to the adequacy of the methodology for shapiin a vision of the creative content sector as such, we can conclude that the process helped raise key issues and controversies relevant to the sector as depicted by the four scenarios.
Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 30 With regard to the impact assessment aspect of the methodology
Existing methodologies, even when combined in innovative ways and adjusted in the course of the process, reach their limits
beyond the usual ones associated with the application of leading edge methods. The overall conclusion is that the methodology
appropriate budget and techniques alone are insufficient factors to explain the success of foresight programs. The interview results indicate that success is defined ultimately as the impact of the foresight exercise on government policy,
and reporting methodologies were very similar around the world and so best methods practiic is spreading rapidly within the foresight communnity Thus,
although the methodology of foresight study and focus is important, it is insufficient as an indicator of success. Eight factors were identified as the critical keys to success in government-led foresight programs:
Focus on a clearly identified client. Establish a clear link between foresight and todaay'policy agenda.
Develop and employ methodologies and skills that are used not always in other departments. Ensure a clear communication strategy.
Methodology The primary study methodology was interviews with the directors of successful foresight programs to learn from them what factors led to success and, of course,
and claritty This study involved various qualitative and quantitative research methods including: a detailed literature review;
and implementation of technology policy Understand the best methods and use of foresight Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 37 Results:
and so best methods practice is spreading rapidly within the foresight community. Thus, while the methodology of foresight study and focus is also important,
it is insufficient as an indicator of success. Taken together, the studies identified many similariities For example:
Methods used: Four methods were particularly popular: literature reviews, scenarios, brainstorminng and expert panels. The most striking result is the popularity of the four methods:
largely irrespecctiv of the types of outputs being generated. Outputs: In the nine-country sample, policy recommenddation were the most common type of output from national
and sub-national foresight exercises, followed by scenarios, analysis of trends and drivers and research priorities. There were also interesting differences observed.
Develops and employs methodologies and skills that are used not always in other departments: For example, Forfas came into being to address a governnmen gap,
In all cases, the new function was bringing much needed methodologies that had previously not been exploited fully within the mainstream departments of the government.
and know the methodology are a distinctive asset, and they proviid a steady source of new ideas, intelligence and international foresight connections.
At the outsse it should be noted that the methodologies that are being used during the program have been evaluated in the past
this part of the paper applies only the eight critical success factors that are additional to the methodology factor.
In looking at the critical success factors it was clear that they go beyond methodology.
Essentially, the culture of government often tends to discourage full partnerships and strong connections due to mutual differences in operating norms Novel methodologies:
and train over 300 senior government staff and managers in foresight methods so that at least a portion of the policy advisory system has had some exposure/familiarity to these methods Communications strategy:
in addition to the usual ones associated with the application of leading-edge methods. Further studies should validate these factors by applying them to different foresight organizations,
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assesssmen Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. Ladikas, Miltos and Michael Decker 2004.
New technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. Rollwagen, Ingo, Jan Hofmann and Stefan Schneider 2006.
'The technology roadmapping method has been used in the present authors'previous region-wide studies (APEC CTF, 2006.
Methodology Conduct of the project: overview The project was organized into two phases. Phase I was designed to identify the potential issues related to EID.
scan Visualization of pathogens Method to detect infected cells Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 47 find more technology applications.
and cultivation methods. Diagnosis plays a critical role in the treatment of disease and in developing response strategies.
The specific combination of methods (bibliometric analysis, online survey, scenario, and technology roadmapping) bears interesting potential and advannce important methodological issues in FTA.
The combination of methodologies used here to overcome obstacles in the double cross-bordering dimension, where the context of technology applications in a multilateral R&d agenda is usually not fully explored.
New Technollog Foresight, Forecasting & Assessment Methods, held 13 14 may 2004, Seville, Spain. World health organization 2006.
and advannce in Living Lab methodologies. She is preparing a Phd thesis on the measurement of Qoe in a mobile media environment.
Hansson (2006) distinguishes two types of user-driven innovattio methods: voice of the customer methods and lead-user methods.
Eric Von Hippel's work on‘lead users'(1986) can undoubtedly be regarded as pioneeerin in this respect.
Furthermore, the traditional user-research tools (including methods such as foccu groups, surveys etc. have been supplemented by alternative analytical methods (e g. archetype reseaarch personas, scenarios, proxy technology assesssmen etc.
and think, methods from other disciplines are used now to dig deeper into what people do
and feel or dream (e g. generative methods)( Sleeswijk Visser et al. 2007). ) Følstad (2008) situates the rise of living labs in this context of user-driven innovation.
Furthermore, there is a lack of integration of best practices and available methodologies, methood and tools into interdisciplinary user-driven innovattio research (e g. in the living lab setting)( Feurstein et al.,
using either user-or technologycenntre methodologies. Although it is crucial that the user insights generated find their way into the development process,
In addition, we illustrate how a living lab setting can be complemented successfuull by other research methods.
To complement the traditional social science method of focus groups, three userarcheetype were developed to help the participants empathize with other lifestyles.
It was mentioned that this predominant focus on the user led to an expannsio of the traditional range of user research instruument with methods and tools from other fields.
it was illustrated how research in a living lab setting can be complemented by other research methods in order to fuel the userdriive approach.
Means and methods for collecting and analysing Qoe measurements in wireless networks. Proceedings of the International Symposium on a World of Wireless, Mobile and Multimedia Networks (WOWMOM. 2006.61), held 26 29 june 2006, Niagara-falls, Buffalo-NY, USA.
This could be shown by four different matching methods. A further finding was that the magnitude of the impact correlated positively with the relative size of the financial support
Matching methods based on direct comparisons of participating and nonparticipating agents, which were used first in labour market evaluations,
1 A major advantage of the matching methods rather than the regression approach is that the matching is nonparametric.
We then applied four different matching methods in order to find the structurally similar‘twin'firms for every subsidized firm.
For the period 2002 2004 we found that (with one exception), for all six innovation measures and for all four matching methods applied,
the use of four different matching methods that alloowe us to test the robustness of our results;
Fifthly, we provide a detailed discusssio of our methodology for estimating the impaac of CTI subsidies on the innovation performance of firms.
and matching methods. Nora Sydow has been at the Economic Research Departmeen of Credit suisse since 2008.
To the best of our knowledge, it is unique in Europe as a main promotional policy. 2 Methods of evaluation of measures of technology policy Evaluating the outcomes of subsidized projects is difficult,
regression with fixed effects or‘difference in differencces'selection models and matching methods based on direct comparisons of the participating
In this study we apply matching methods to evaluate the impact of R&d subsidies on the innovatiio performance of subsidized firms.
A major advanntag of the matching methods over the regression approach is that the matching is nonparametric.
this method also has shortcomings. First, a close similarity with respect to all observable characterristic that are believed to be correlated with the likelihood that a firm
Moreover, the study for Ireland combines selection correction approach and matching method, that for Austria uses both approaaches Finally, three of the non-European studies (USA, Japan and Israel) use versions
of the selection correction method, while the Canadian study is based on a matching approach and is the only study that compares the impact of two different policy instrumments Six out of ten studies use R&d intensity,
Additional information on the determiinant of the propensity scores (see section on Method) was collected through a telephone survey of the 122 subsidized firms that did not complete the postal survey.
Method Our main hypothesis is that the CTI support, particulaarl through co-financed research projects in cooperratio with universities, would show on average a significantly higher innovation performance,
We used several matching methods to demonstrate this. In order to measure appropriately the influence of CTI subsidies on a firm's innovation performannc(‘treatment effect')4 we should be able to measure the performance difference of the two‘states'of a firm (subsidized by the CTI(‘treated')/non-subsidized by the CTI
1998) developed a methodology to approximate this non-observable(‘counterfactual')state of a certain firm with the observable same state of another firm which is‘structurally similar'to the first one according to a series of firm characteriistic formally defined by a vector
we used four different matching methods to identify the structurally similar firms out of the pool of the nontreeate firms.
According to the first method used in this study nearest neighbour matching, the‘twin'firm j to firm
The second method used in this study, calliper matching, is based on the same proximity measure as the nearest neighbour method
which in this case is restricted up to a certain value e (maximum admissibbl difference of the propensity scores):
According to the third method, kernel matching, a weighted sum of all available control group firms inside an adjustment cell, not a single‘twin'firm as in the other two methods, is ascribed to every
The fourth and last method, the local linear regresssio matching, is based on the same concept as kernel matching.
indicators, of the subsidized and the non-subsidized firms for four different matching methods. We calculated the differrenc of the means of the two categories of firms (subsidized, non-subsidized) for six innovation variables and four matching methods,
i e. for 24 differren cases. With one exception(‘importance of introduced innovations from an economic point of view';‘
'‘nearest neighbour'method) we found that the subsidized firms showed a significantly higher 0 1(,)N N A b W i j C D)}
4. Summary of results with respect to receiving a subsidy for various matching methods Variable Significantly higher means of subsidized than of nonsubsiidize firms (after matching) Nearest neighbour Calliper Kernel Local linear regression
Hence, these results seem to be quite robust across various methods and innovatiio indicators. Having controlled for the size and age of the firms, sector affiliation, region, export propensity,
The detailed results in terms of figures for each innovation measure and each method are found in Tables A3 A6 in the Appendix.
i e. those firms that were seleccte (out of the pool of non-subsidized firms) by the matching method used (in this case:‘
‘nearest neighbour'method) as‘similar'to the subsidized ones. The figures in the latter case are systematically larger than in the former case,
reflecting the fact that firms with a high innovation performance are seleccte by the applied method to match subsidized firms that are expected to be highly innovative in ordde to obtain grants.
than non-subsidized ones Table 5. Summary of results with respect to the magnitude of the subsidy quotient for various matching methods Variable Significantly higher differences of differences of means of subsidized
'and the non-subsidized firms is significantly higher (at the 10%level) for all four matching methods than the respective differeence for the‘low-subsidy'firms (i e. significanntl positive difference of the differences).
More detailed results in terms for figures for each innovation measure and each method can be found in Tables A7 A10 in the Appendix.
This could be shown by four different matching methods (with the exception of the nearest neighbour method for the indicator‘importance of introduced innovations from an economic point of view'.
Comparison of subsidized/non-subsidized enterprises, matched by‘nearest neighbour'method Measures of innovation performance All non-active firms before matching Non-active firms after matching (control group) Active
Comparison of subsidized/non-subsidized enterprises, matched by‘calliper'method Measures of innovation performance All non-active firms before matching Non-active firms after matching (control group Active
Comparison of subsidized/non-subsidized enterprises, matched by‘kernel'method Measures of innovation performance All non-active firms before matching Non-active firms after matching (control group) Active
Comparison of subsidized/non-subsidized enterprises, matched by‘local linear regression'method Measures of innovation performance All non-active firms before matching Non-active firms after matching (control group
Results with respect to magnitude of subsidy quotient for 2000 2002, calculated using‘nearest neighbour'method Measures of innovation performance Subsidized firms:
Results with respect to magnitude of subsidy quotient (2000 2002) using‘calliper'method Measures of innovation performance Subsidized firms:
Appendix (continued) Table A. 9. Results with respect to magnitude of subsidy quotient (2000 2002) using‘kernel'method Measures of innovation performance Subsidized firms:
Results with respect to magnitude of subsidy quotient (2000 2002) using‘local linear regression'method Measures of innovation performance Subsidized firms:
Caliendo and Huber (2005) and Caliendo and Kopeinig (2005) give overviews of recent developments with respect to matching methods. 6. We used a‘biweight kernel'(quartic kernel) for the function G(.)It is defined as follows:
Evaluation methodologies, econometric models: microeconometric models. In RTD Evaluatiio Tool Box: Socioeconomic Evaluation of Public RTD Policies (EPUB), W Polt, J. Rojo, A Tübke, G Fahrenkrog and K Zinöcker (eds.
tools and methods. Research policy, 29 (4/5), 657 678. Görg, H and E Strobl 2007.
This instruumen adapts the methodology of technology roadmapping to addressing critical innovation policy challennge at the level of national and regional innovation systems, within a global context.
as well as to the FTA conference more generally, clearly demonstrate there is a growing volume of valuable and appropriable experiennc in the development and application of fta, in terms of both the process and methods and the organisational context in
It represents a merger of future methods with those of strategic management. It is defined by Habegger (2010) as a deliberate attempt to broaden the‘boundaries of perception
The methodologgica approach must induce out-of-the-box thinking, by the cumulative introduction of different visions on the subject, open discussions and the use of creative methods.
lies in the ability to develop tailor-made methodologies, by employing a number of tools and methods.
A key factor in success is to start the exercise after a robust collective planning Step in the pre foresight phase of this methodological approach (see Section 4),
the methods and tools to be applied are considdere and strategies to think out-of-the-box are discussed
and stakeholdders applying a variety set of methods and tools, and a suitable combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches.
and for applyiin a variety of methods and tools to bring the main issues impacting a given foresight exercise to the table.
This perception is the key point of the forsight methodology, which can be defined as a:..
methods and tools that may fit the needs of the exercise better, to be mobilized. Participatory management structures are recommended highly to allow for‘on the fly'decisions to be made once the exercise starts.
This activity was part of the methodology preparation of the strategic foresight exercise. The main ideas and designed strategy on how to implement out-of-the-box thinking at FINEP are shown in Fig. 3. A vision of a possible, successful future for FINEP,
The timeline tool was chosen as an alternative to the method of scenarios, because the uncertainty and compleexit of the environment demanded an approach which offered stakeholders a tool for collective reasoning without the need to definine strategies or elaborate decisions,
as the method of scenarios normally requires. A‘timeline, 'as conceived in this case, is the representation of a temporal sequence of possible future events,
The methods used were interactive, to ensure mobilization, particippatio and commitment at all levels of the agency
The use of distinct methods techniques and tools is one of the characteristics of future studies,
These authors have proposed a classification of methods and techniques by the type of approach (exploratory or normatiive) method (qualitative, semi-quantitative or quantitattive or source of knowledge (creativity, expertise, interaction or evidence.
Of the 33 methods and techniques identified by Popper, the FINEP SMP has employed the following:
regarding the whole process, from methodology development to the analysis and validation of the results obtained..
and define strategies for the application of methods, tools and techniques according to the methodological approach utilized
and foresight, relying on a diversity of methods and techniques and, above all, having flexibility and resilience in its application,
and the use of methods that rely simultaneously on evidence, creativity, expertise and interaction, bestowed methodological robustness on the process and provided quality to the results..
Johnston, R. 2010)‘ Methods and tools for breaking mindsets and bringing new perspectives to the table',paper presented at Foresight International Seminar:
The methods applied should promote expertise and experience but also creativitty These spaces could also be created at different levels of governance (regional, national,
there seems to be considerable richness of foci to different types of transformaations In a number of exercises the methods aim to explore
whereas a number of other methods are applied to develop future plans and action-oriented recommendations for decision-making.
because routines in strategic policy processes do not always match with the characteristics of required methods.
. 2012)‘ On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues',Science and Public policy, 39: 208 21.
The paper explores the methodological background of the IPRM method and outlines its policy rationale.
This paper discusses how the methodology of roadmapping could be applied as an instrument in systemic policy contexts.
the paper introduces a methodology for roadmapping systemic transformations. The IPRM method combines roadmapping and the forward-looking evaluation of policy development paths.
IPRM integrates the approach of technology roadmapping including such contents as enabling technologies, applications, products, markets and drivers with the perspectives of systemic policies and policy instruments.
The function of the case studies is to demonstrate how the IPRM method can be utilized in the mapping of systemic policy-level trajectories.
a framework for forward-looking policy design 3. 1 Methodological background IPRM is an integrative method that combines the two cultures of roadmapping with a sensibility towards systemic aspects of socio-technical transformation.
Thirdly, because IPRM is more of a process methodology than a generic societal frame the number of participants is limited.
This method is known as backcasting. The second way is present-oriented, i e. to define the present state
and present-oriented methods. Hybridization allows the roadmapping process to escape process lock ins that can result from too rigid a process.
The development of the IPRM method, still an ongoing process, is an outcome of several projects realized at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland.
The function of these case studies is to demonstrate how the IPRM method can be utilized in the mapping of systemic policy-level trajectories. 4 Case study 1:
management solutions based on robotics Distributed small-scale energy production Remote collaboration products Enabling technologies Methods and processes for environmental impact assessment of products and services,
At present, LCA is standardized a method and many types of LCA software are available. The basic AMR services are maturing.
At present, much emphasis is placed on developing methods and processes for the environmental impact assessment of products and services, including carbon footprinting.
The modelling and simulation technologies required for LCA methods are also available. Wireless sensors as well as image processing technologies help in the object recognition needed for automatic waste recycling.
In the long term, advanced modelling, optimization and artificial intelligence methods will enable intelligent products, recycling and energy grid solutions.
and virtual products. 6. Conclusions This paper has depicted an IPRM methodology in the context of forward-looking policy design.
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