that they will put the results into practice. We have learned also that one tool does not fit all situations,
and indeed the entire activity field of organisations, has been conceptualised as relational practices, that is, as activities realised in relation to impulses stemming from users, other organisations,
The first aspect was about building new client-oriented and environmentally sustainable practices in the field
and environmentally sustainable practices in the field Capacities to understand and take part in the processes of the clients Building thematic roadmaps on four project themes:(
towards integrated service packages Visionary Forming a new kind of service-oriented culture in a rather conservative field Fostering structural adaptabiliit for the adoption of new kinds of practices Building explicit visions in roadmap themes:(
a structural openness for the adoption of new practices should be fostered. In addition, the field of construction machinery should actively endorse a kind of horizontal anticipatory agency, for example, through novel technology and services concepts,
Thus, applying the project knowledge in changing organisational practices would still require further activation rounds.
One hindrance to converting the ideas into practices could be the somewhat abstract nature of the case examples:
Therefore, a kind of interpretative phase after the visionary phase could be useful in putting the ideas into practice.
and future affects the organisational practices. Forward-looking sensibility is ineluctably related to contextual historical understanding, and vice versa.
New forms, new practices. In Diagrams 2008, ed. G. Stapleton, J. Howse and J. Lee, 127 40.
B A heterogeneous set of stakeholders within and outside the BMBF with different agendas, value systems, interests and communication practices has been brought together
Findings The emergence of grand challenges within research and innovation policy discourse in Europe has refreshed key questions for foresight theory and practice.
some conclusions and implications for research and practice are offered particularly on how foresight addresses the‘‘challenge of grand challenges''in research and innovation systems.
B improvements in the law enforcement system and law enforcement practice; B designing effective economic mechanisms for stimulating enterprises to decrease waste formation;
Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham. Corresponding author Anna Sokolova can be contacted at: avsokolova@hse. ru VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 53 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
and the analytic practice deriving fromthe latter to identify the possible competitive or cooperative landscapes in the future.
but the analytic practice derived from the latter to identify the possible competitive or cooperative landscapes in the future.
and in defining effective policy responses leads to the understanding that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil such roles.
FTA practices Fundamental change and transformations Grand challenges 1. Introduction Drawing upon a critical reflection on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis,
Through the identification that appropriate FTA practices are needed to enable FTA to fulfil its potential roles
Appropriate FTA practices are essential to enable FTA to fulfil such roles. These should follow certain principles to ensure quality in both processes
In other words, it would be a mistake to search for a fixed set of methods in the sense of one size fits all (or best practice.
therefore, improve the FTA practice in developing its approaches, where FTA needs to demonstrate that there might be opportunities for innovation and new markets in grand challenges.
and influenced the practice of FTA to show that alignment of approaches, consideration of users'perspectives and divergence,
and the need for social shaping seem critical to advance FTA practice in light of anticipating disruptive innovations and events. 382 C. Cagnin et al./
(b) use of new disciplines entering FTA to exchange practices and increase synergies,(c) support of mutual understanding by clarifying strengths and weaknesses of QL and QT methods,(d) sharing
successful cases and good practices to build trust,(e) creation of technological and methodological interfaces between QL and QT approaches,(f) setting up of multidisciplinary teams from the very beginning of an exercise
It does so by analysing seventeen scenario-based projects to identify elements of good practices
and practice of FTA should consider the governance dimension from the beginning by acknowledging that monitoring
In this context, Georghiou and Harper 3 provide an account of the implications for the practice of FTA in periods of instability
and influenced the practice of FTA. They outline that the main exception to mainstream practice has been the emergence of horizon scanning activities.
This has doomed such activities to a relatively small part of the picture of FTA practice. Moreover, it happens
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 379 385 practice and assist in considering transformations that are going to take us closer to anticipating disruptive innovations and events.
His academic interests are in economics of innovation theory and practice of innovation policy, and technology foresight. In 1997 2000 he was the Programme Director of TEP, the Hungarian technology foresight programme.
combining research and practice, to overcome such barriers. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Qualitative Quantitative Barriers Combination Integration FTA Epistemological divide 1. Introduction The methodological debate has been a relevant element of the International Seville Conference series on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA
which is used then as a framework for classifying current FTA practices. Section 4 reflects on the obstacles that may be preventing a faster
we look in the next section at some current FTA practices. 3. A taxonomy of methodological combinations as a basis for identifying current FTA practices
in order to identify‘good practices 'and to contribute to the robustness of FTA, in terms of process, content, and impacts.
Examples of current and upcoming FTA practices Output of qualitative approaches as input to quantitative approaches New indicators:
Examples of current and upcoming FTA practices Internet-based tools allowing for integration of data of various sorts Online sharing of perspectives on different data types:
both in FTA practices and in linking policy and research in general (for an example, see Haegeman et al. 39). 389 K. Haegeman et al./
Examples of current FTA practices Examples of research with deep integration of qualitative and quantitative FTA APPROACHES are not many.
and numbers has consolidated the historical practice of both communities working in isolation: each can safely remain in their own cultural realm,
In the absence of market values for such goods and services, valuation practices commonly recur to Contingent Valuation Methods (CVM),
is their gradual integration into existing practices of FTA and their convergence with qualitative techniques.
Given the lack of identified good practices as a natural first step to tackle this issue,
and lack of well-known good practices. Many of those seem to be somehow related to the epistemology skills trust triangle. 12 One could also look into project design papers, consultancy reports,
A possible item on such research agenda could be screening specific sectors where quantitative FTA APPROACHES are represented traditionally stronger, in view of identifying good practices.
and practitioners from different methodological traditions at each stage. 5. 2. Overcoming long-term barriers Overcoming barriers such as the lack of identified good practices,
and below we suggest some of the steps that could be taken in such direction. 5. 2. 1. Lack of identified good practices In light of the growing volume and variety of FTA practices,
Good practices should rather be sought by measuring, if at all possible, the benefits derived from the foresight process itself (such as for instance network building and improved collaboration) and the improvement of the decision-making process,
Stocktaking of good practices, and the development of frameworks that support the selection and implementation of an appropriate combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and tools in a given context, can enhance shared knowledge,
which again indicates the importance of stocktaking on good practices. 5. 2. 3. Differences in cultural backgrounds:
In the short term, efforts must be made to reduce the divide by promoting joint practice within actual FTA EXERCISES,
Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.17 A. Havas, D. Schartinger, M. Weber, The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making:
, Collaborative governance in theory and practice, J. Public Adm. Res. Theory 18 (4)( 2008) 543 571.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 Fabiana Scapolo holds a Phd on foresight methodologies and practices from the Manchester University (UK).
Such study can be used in management practice to enable technology observers to determine the current life cycle stage of a particular technology of interest
Such convergence has conducted to a rejuvenation and growth in FTA METHODS and practice, much in accordance with the perspective envisioned by Harold Linstone in 1999 2,
Or the interface of artifacts and ideas in technological practices? 2 How does heritability occur in technological systems?
addressing one of the shortcomings of many traditional approaches and practices, i e. the poor utilization of the potential to be prepared for uncertainties and surprises of future developments 18.
elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Reflexive inquiry Innovation Scenario practice Grand challenges 1. Introduction In the context of this paper, future scenarios can be seen as narratives set in the future to explore how the society would change
and does provide a sound basis for challenging current practice, learning from experience and better articulating our underlying theoretical premises.
The outcomes of this inquiry are presented in Section 4 including also implications for practitioners by elaborating elements of good practices and areas of improvement.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 2. Material and methods How can we learn about orienting innovation systems from future scenario practice?
We use the word practice to describe the implementation or execution of a concept, plan, methodology or theory.
Most practice is based on a set of theories or assumptions. Sometimes those theories are explicit,
The connection between practice and theory (unlike that between theory and practice) has traditionally been ignored, to the detriment of both 26.
This means that practice, such as scenario practice, is rooted in a particular moment and place. In accordance with Cunliff 27 and to be consistent with reflexive inquiry,
we first have to deconstruct scenario practice. In order to do so, three complementary questions on policy change are applied to analyze the case studies:(
How can different communities of practice interact in an overall productive and interested way? 434 P. De Smedt et al./
Scenario practice and related techniques Reflecting the uncertain threats of the cold war, the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,
who joined Rand, explored the application of systems analysis and game theory in order to encourage‘thinking the unthinkable'8. Meanwhile in France,
Developing and using scenarios are professional practices to support significant decisions, and therefore it needs to be more assured of its claims to knowledge (methodology).
Practices are very diverse and often combinations of techniques 61. These types of approaches are typical of those used in our analysis (see Appendix 1 for an overview of the scenario cases.
In addition, implications for practitioners are highlighted by elaborating elements of good practice and areas of improvement. 4. 1. Window of opportunity Leveraging the first perspective,
we distinguish two groups of scenario practice. We argue that dependent on the dominance of one of the two motivations (respectively a. developing
(i e. window of opportunity) and can be seen as a polarized view on this element of practice.
i e. legitimacy for action, our analysis revealed three groups of scenario practice in the case studies from Appendix 1. The following sub-sections will describe the main characteristics for each of these three groups:
Creating awareness for the unforeseen is most often an important objective and desired outcome of this group of scenario practice.
Our analysis also suggests possible improvements for this group of scenario practice. Roadmaps directed towards a single target are likely to be inappropriate where policy intervention may direct technology towards a different trajectory altogether 70,71.
Backcasting from principles A third group of practice is characterized by a focus on backcasting from principles.
Also for the third group of scenario practice, we suggest some areas of improvement with regard to legitimizing actions by adding a planning perspective via roadmaps or similar approaches.
i e. empowering stakeholders, our analysis of the case studies from Appendix 1 revealed two groups of scenario practice:
As opposed to past scenario practice, we believe there is often no clear cut difference between experts and stakeholders:
we argue that our reflexive inquiry of the selected cases from Appendix 1 helped disclose several representation issues in scenario practice.
different groups of practice have been revealed. In the next section we will discuss our findings against the initial key question of how futures thinking
the community of practice being informed and the values inherent in the process. In this sense, no single discipline or particular prescribed set of methods can be considered to be optimal.
being a professional practice to support significant decisions, developing and using scenarios need to be more assured of its claims to knowledge 61.
three complementary questions on policy change are applied to analyze scenario practice:(i) How can developing and using future scenarios present a window of opportunity to effectively drive decisions?;(
By questioning representation from a policy perspective and deconstructing future scenario practice, we were able to (re) construct findings to the above questions:(
An overview of our findings is presented in Table 2 that describes for each group of practice (sub-sections 4. 1 4. 3) the most common images of the future, an example of a characteristic technique and the dominant mode of futures thinking.
By doing so, we are able to link issues of representation with groups of scenario practice.
Instead of framing practice based on theory, future scenario practice is deconstructed into seven groups. These seven groups are linked further to the most characteristic theoretical premises
two groups of practice can be distinguished: one group using scenarios as the most characteristic feature,
for each of the groups an example (s) of good practice from Appendix 1 is included in the text. 439 P. De Smedt et al./
as articulations of theoretical premises, can be distinguished in future scenario practice. In addition, we abstracted different dominant modes of futures thinking linked within different groups.
and practice is shaped by the image (s) of the future and the techniques applied. Combinations of techniques are possible
To strengthen the enablers for innovation within the scenario process, the link between practice and theory,
Our analyses of the scenario case studies from Appendix 1 revealed elements of good practice and implications on how to better address innovation through future scenarios.
In addition, we also identified some points of departure for further refinement of current scenario practices with respect to innovation.
Firstly, and summarizing our recommendations for future scenario practice, we suggest that representation issues (i e. what is,
or was lacking) are an important feature in the design and application of future scenario practice.
In this paper we argue that the limits of current practice are to a certain extent linked with representation issues.
and backcasting from principles can strongly enhance practice by enhancing representation. We also want to Table 3 Different modes of futures thinking for orienting innovation systems via future scenarios.
i e. using a policy perspective for doing an ex-post analysis of future scenario practice. Innovation systems are complex and dynamic
Therefore, when using reflexivity in research or in scenario practice, it is also essential to make one's perspective clear
Chang. 72 (2005) 59 73.8 A. Wilkinson, E. Eidinow, Evolving practices in environmental scenarios: a new scenario typology, Environ.
L. V. Shavinina (Ed.),The International Handbook on Innovation, Pergamon, London, UK, 2003.26 L. Gunderson, C. Folke, M. A. Janssen, Reflective practice, Ecol.
Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.60 T. Webler, D. Levine, H. Rakel, D. Renn, A novel approach to reducing uncertainty the group
and practice of FTA should consider the governance dimension from the beginning by acknowledging that monitoring
Concepts and Practice, 2008, pp. 154 169.33 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to foresight processes new participative foresight activities in Germany, J. Forecast. 22 (2003) 93 111.34
and methods and practices of futuring. 452 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452
e g. from fashion to furniture industry; elderly people instead of kids or vice versa...Generalisation as the mainstream practice...
e g. what if active users involvement in innovation processes would become the default Radicalisation of the principle...
this essay reflects on the implications of the current period of instability and discontinuity for the practice of FTA or foresight.
Dealing with disruptive transformations is seen as the key forward challenge for the practice of FTA. 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
This essay reflects on the implications for the practice of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) 1 of the current period of instability and discontinuity.
and has influenced largely the practice of the field. Studies have indicated that the principal applications of FTA have been in supporting priority-setting and in the analysis and articulation of the potential of future technologies 9
For this reason up to now it has remained a relatively small part of the picture of FTA practice.
The features outlined above are reflected in the practice of FTA. At a practical level the shifts make it less clear where the activity should be situated who has ownership of the problems
A particular challenge is to find the methodological core of FTA practice, not because of a lack of methods the field is rich with them
The next two or three years promise to be a critical period for the challenged practices of FTA,
Public policy 39 (2)( 2012) 153 165.15 K. Haegeman, F. Scapolo, A. Ricci, E. Marinelli, A. Sokolov, premises and practices in combining quantitative and qualitative FTA METHODS
Practice in search of theory? This Special issue, like many compendia arising out of a professional conference, offers a sample of the state of the art at a particular point in time.
b) The other set considers how FTA influences practices and disciplines outside of the direct organizational or topical source of the FTA ACTIVITY.
and improve other practices or disciplines. De Moor et al. develop the concept of‘‘Innovation Foresight
and practice that made up the 2011 FTA conversation in the light of subsequent developments.
''Despite persistent calls to build‘‘the community''there were equally insistent worries that the failure to articulate shared agendas reflected deeper underlying differences in both theory and practice.
Or was FTA revealing the incompatibility of the theory and practice of efforts that deal with closed versus open challenges?
offer some clues both negative and positive regarding the ways to build shared discourses that cover theory and practice.
across far-flung and diverse communities, about the theory and practice of using the future. There is no assurance that this particular conversation will fully address the lack of a shared sense-making framework made evident by the FTA PROCESSES
Organisational culture is shared the perception of daily practices within a specific organisational context 13,15. In contrast, national culture relates to people who are within a certain national context.
Even among wealthy and highly developed democracies, it is possible to find differences in planning practices.
and reflects the practice of foresight in different contexts. We have shown an improved framework for comparing
whether these theoretical assumptions correspond to the experiences of policy-makers in their everyday practice. According to a recent study by the European Environmental Agency 6, there is insufficient empirical evidence of the added value of scenario analysis in general,
Finally, in all the local case studies, the policy-makers indicated that future exploration methods were used in a suboptimal fashion.
Decision-making practices have to be deconstructed in order to‘prepare the field'.'According to Da Costa et al. it is very important to position foresight studies within the complex process of building
All rights reserved. http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. futures. 2014.01.007 practice of the design and management of international foresight processes.
Cultural differences, language barriers, institutional practices, regulatory frameworks, capacities and capabilities of participants to contribute as well as more practical difficulties,
Ultimately it is hoped that once the findings of this project are put into practice it will help EU manufacturing systems to flourish sustainably. 9 4. 2. Responsiveness towards diverse languages
experiences from the preparation of an international research programme, Technological forecasting and Social Change 75 (2008) 483 495.30 D. White, J. Fortune, Current practice in project management an empirical
now Technology Assesment Theory and Practice. Member of the group advising the Institute for Prospective Technological Studies of the Joint research Centre (IPTS, now European commission, Directorate-General Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies) on the production of the IPTS Report.
Innovation Foresight User involvement User practices Future TV experiences Interaction A b s T R A c T This paper discusses the need for a shift towards more Foresight-based inclusive innovation processes
that help to provide an understanding of users'daily practices and futures aspirations. It is argued that a better introduction of future anticipation in inclusive innovation processes could enhance the input of users in innovation
Through a better introduction of the future based on Foresight theory and practice and through an integration of methods and approaches from other fields, including user/market research
It seeks to understand the complex interactions between products, services, users and other stakeholders in multiple, realistic contexts, building on Foresight theory and practice, traditional user research,
As a result, in collaboration with an operator, a large study on current user behaviour and practices concerning DTV in Flanders was set up
As a result, it is crucial to reflect on current and future viewing practices and on how the TV of the future should address these evolving practices in order to stay close to the users.
In this study, we therefore involved different types of users in an inclusive process to reflect on possible, probable and/or preferable‘TV experiences of the future (initial time horizon:
. 2). Each of these types was divided further into a positive and negative profile, based on current viewing practices, positive or negative attitudes and behavioural intentions towards current/future viewing possibilities.
a review of the literature on current television viewing practices and time spending patterns confirmed the observation that TV is still predominantly a lean back medium.
the current viewing practices have not evolved at the same pace as the technological possibilities 31.
and on new user practices that might arise from the offered affordances. The probes stimulated them to think beyond their current practices
In both studies, information and intelligence concerning real experiences, practices and visions from a user perspective served as starting points.
It represents an approach for bringing the future into inclusive innovation processes in a more systematic and comprehensive way, based on Foresight theory and practice and through integrating methods and tools from Foresight, traditional user/market research and human-centred
Lente, The Sociology of expectations in Science and Technology, Technology analysis & Strategic management 18 (2006) 285 298.18 P. den Hertog, R. Smits, The Co-evolution of Innovation theory, Innovation Practice
or impose actions that are not in line with sound scientific practice, while being reasonable from a project perspective 43.
, an innovation radar 56 and best-practice benchmarking 57. The innovation radar identifies external trends
The best-practice benchmarking activity aims at identifying best practices for (1) disseminating innovations among the partners,
and (4) recommending practices to improve the activities within the network. A project team with members from education, research and industry and from several partner organizations identifies
and evaluates the best practices in close cooperation with the network's management team. The aim is to create a continuously developing organization by establishing state-of-the-art methodologies
The best-practice benchmarking ensures the implementation of state-of-the-art instruments and methods. 4. 3. 4. Leadership In contrast to most other publicly funded research instruments of the European commission,
and best-practice benchmarking. The importance of stakeholder management results from the inter-organizational setup of the EIT ICT Labs. Organizations with very different backgrounds, philosophies and cultures, interests and goals,
and business opportunities on a yearly basis and provides the means to explore the field further Program 3. 9 Best-practice benchmarking Collects information about best practices in collaborative R&d,
54 (2012) 288 295.56 EIT ICT Labs, Innovation Radar, EIT ICT Labs, 2012.57 EIT ICT Labs, Best-Practice Benchmarking, EIT ICT
and exchanging best practices and methodologies. Adaptive foresight is applied by Abadie et al. to the highly uncertain environment of the European creative content industries as part of the European Perspectives on the Information society project.
Concepts and Practices, L Georghiou, J C Harper, M Keenan, I Miles and R Popper (eds.),
Alerting function The fact that some of the scan issues published in 2005 (e g. risk of a financial crisis caused by poor lending practices
Each scenario was described focussing on common elements like global context, infrastructure, practices of content production, distribution and use,
infrastruccture practices of content production and distribuution practices of content users, interaction, interfaces and institutions.
and design that could be used to develop a list of best practices. The interviews were designed also to elicit the institutions'perception of what constitutes foresight success. Organizations
technology and innovation priorities Creating a language and body of practice for thinking about the future A source of inspiration for policy system actors More comprehensive,
designed and delivered in the period 2005 2006 was a survey of foresight leaders around the world identified from international meetinngs followed by an expert analysis that delved more deeply into best practices.
can you point out some best practices or elements that you feel contributed most strongly to the program's success?
and design that could be used to develop a list of best practices. The interviews were designed also to elicit the institution's perception as to what constitutes foresight success. Foresight organizations
and so best methods practice is spreading rapidly within the foresight community. Thus, while the methodology of foresight study and focus is also important,
Many reported that this was either a normal practice or an ongoiin challenge and that indicated progress was made beiin.
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