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the purpose of the analysis (awareness raising, envisioning, consensus building, corporate technology planning, etc; the reliability of source information;
1. Methodological selection This session focused on experience and guidance on which methods to use for what purpose,
The purpose of this paper is to achieve a conceptual consolidation of Adaptive foresight, to review in a fairly hands-on way methodological experience thus far,
The purpose is to develop new things, to upset established agendas and give rise to new approaches.
For the purpose of this paper, the essence of this third constituent can be succinctly summarised in terms of the so-called Collingridge Dilemma 1:
or the audience and the purpose addressed. 2 Common to many foresight exercises is the development of either different scenarios,
For our purposes, however, the distinction between foresight and forecasting is useful. 4 See, for instance,
To serve this purpose the outline strives to be as hands-on as is possible within the limited space available. 22 3. 2. 1. Relationship to clients
for the purpose of supporting mutual learning, opening-up of national innovation systems and the development of new collaborative forms of European RTD funding.
For the purpose of information management, Researchers were asked to indicate which research area and sub-area the issue would fit best within a taxonomical framework that was developed for the research issues.
The purpose of the first criterion was to measure how relevant the research issue would to industrial uses,
rather, it was employed for the purpose of synthesizing the wealth of information that was collected from the experts during the assessment phase,
whether to go for a highly application specific product (one purpose only), a product that is somewhat more generic and would allow for a number of distinct yet still similar operations,
Loc device for many purposes (like a through a plug in and play technology platform. The grey crescent represents the present barrier
Nevertheless more defined purposes require more specific technologies and hence, particular technological paths. The map shows the possible paradigms that can emerge.
For the purpose of aiding development to strategic research area setting within Frontiers, this map (and any future evolution) is
Their purpose was also to prepare participants to the kind of anticipatory work that was one of the workshop's aims.
Manage. 48 (2 may 2001) 132 143.12 S. Lee, Y. Park, Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes:
skills and perspectives in new forms of social interaction and networking, typically working towards a common purpose.
For the purpose of the present article, the area of networking and actors'alignment is discussed.
As in the private sector, networks involving public administrations are constituted primarily for the purposes of learning, the development of expertise and the exploitation of complementary resources and know-how.
and control the various activities of universities for managerial purposes and the nature of academic activities would most likely be resolved in different ways by different players.
and content scoring remains a subjective process. 2. Application to distributed design environments Our purpose in exploring this topic is to better consider the information needs of designers.
The network data in the raw is not useful for this purpose. A structured representation of technology is needed for multiple reasons:
The express purpose of these science and technology databases is to research specific existing technologies, and yet the biggest promise of these sources of information may be the diffuse and distributed information they contain about the current state of the knowledge of the community.
Nonetheless, the purpose of this article is not to advocate flexible networks of innovating firms as a preferred form of innovative activity.
along with general purpose technologies such as web servers, Javascript and object-oriented computer science. The hierarchical random graph also productively groups related technologies such as mobile phones and personal digital assistants.
depending on the issues examined and the purpose of the foresight exercise. Technology assessment (TA) has ingredients of both of these approaches
development of proactive risk assessment methodologies for different corporate risk management purposes (identiffyin the vulnerability of corporate and process actions, managing the risks in occupational, industrial and environmental safety, managing business risks, etc.),
For the purpose, the paper is structured as follows: o Section 2 discusses the main research traditions contributing to the paper. o Section 3 presents the concrete projects in the light
Risk management is based not on a striving for perfection from the start nor even on systematic surveillance of deviances for the purpose of correcting them,
and challenges associated with their use for national policy purposes. The criticism is related to the ways data
The purpose of a technology barometer is to give data of how favorable and competitive the Finnish innovation environment is assessed to be now and in the future.
The exact questions and formulations used can be found in the full barometer report 7. The purpose of the survey is to cast light onto the respondents'valuations regarding technology, perception about current state of affairs,
The purpose of the workshop was to discuss what kinds of measures are successful in the implementation of new
and purpose of the exercise engaging a handful of people can add more value to the process than engaging several dozens,
Which institutional arrangements might be beneficial to the purposes of scenario planning and which capacities need organisations in the public sector develop?
framing the purpose of the engagement, and gaining the participation of the all the relevant parties.
their purpose is heuristic exploration; and the users are few, similar, and known 39.1202 A. Volkery,
frame the purpose and gain the participation of all relevant participants. The compartmentalized structure of modern governments is a key barrier to more integrated policy thinking and decision-making
and the role and purpose within the decision-making process is not always clear. It is not remarkable to diagnose a limited impact on political decision-making
The purpose is to ensure, as far as that is possible, that the process of participation is genuine, inclusive and effective:
Because of their overt techno-economic purpose Foresight has relied on the opinions of a relatively narrow body of technologically oriented people.
is the purpose of this paper. 1. 1. History Current Foresight studies attempt to create collective anticipations, usually related to technology,
Expert or advisory committees are created frequently for political purposes, in Foresight narrow consultation needs to be recognised as a possibility
from defining its purpose to implementing the outcome then becomes a major challenge. 1. 2. The case for Inclusive foresight Widening the scope of consultation and making Foresight into a much wider social process,
but do they fit the purpose of inclusivity? As indicated above Inclusive foresight programmes will elicit a far wider range of opinion than ever encountered before
from defining its purpose to implementing the outcome is a major objective in this process. Such process will contribute to the development of more socially and environmentally responsive nano artifacts.
in interaction with various societal actors. 2 This term was created by the author for the purposes of the project,
Constructive technology assessment (Constructive TA) 6 10 as a reflexive strategy articulation support system taking as its starting point ongoing socio-technical dynamics is particularly suitable for such a purpose.
concerned about 2nd generation effects of nanoparticles argued for a moratorium on nanoparticles for medical purposes until toxicity tests tailored for these particles would be done.
bypass it (for purposes of survival). By 2012, health care authorities would not certify the approach without clinical testing.
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or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,
and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply,
or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,
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For this purpose 13 workshops one Stakeholder workshop and two expert workshops for each of six thematic fields6 were conducted.
the ranked research domains within thematic fields were considered often to be framed poorly, incomparable for ranking purposes, unrepresentative of the interests of researchers,
'The purpose of this repackaging was not only to present the results at a granularity level perceived to be more useful to the MCHER,
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For that purpose we use an impact assessment framework that has been developed by Havas, Schartinger, and Weber (2007.
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Our purpose is to shift the discussion from looking into the future to looking at how the future as a temporal abstraction is constructed
which community benefit organisations and individuals build ongoinng permanent relationships for the purpose of applying a collective vision for the benefit of a community (definition from wikipedia. org).
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Specifically, about three weeks before the first panel meeting the purpose of which was to address driving forces that would set the stage for the development of focus areas each panellist was requested to propose through the internet three to five driving forces using the template.
This was reflected in the futures 43 (2011) 229 231 2 This tension has been mirrored at the time of writing by an attempt by parts of the European commission to put into wider usage the collective term they are using for internal managerial purposes
and that for wider purposes a dual definition of foresight as a broader umbrella and as a specific family of approaches will persist.
and practice which lead them to deploy a hybrid methodological framework involving tailored approaches for specific purposes
evidence-based policy and academic disciplines such as Innovation studies and Science and Technology studies 2. A number of classifications have been developed distinguishing types of Foresight with respect to approach, context and purpose 3
Foresight practitioners do now deploy hybrid methodological frameworks where different approaches serve different purposes in specific phases in order to tailor Foresight to each specific purpose and context.
it seems that Foresight has been evolving from a loose collection of approaches to a complex integrated framework with a number of levers for adaptation to specific purposes and contexts and gradually,
In other words, Foresights for research policy purposes, can be characterised by their positioning in the governance arenas vs.
Along these lines Ko nno la et al. 7 have developed a framework for the purposes of strategic management of a foresight portfolio in a contract research organisation.
and elaborated for the purposes to characterise foresight projects conducted around the world in relation with major societal challenges.
Furthermore for classification purposes, the framework considers outcomes and future perspectives both referring to the outcome-related aspects of the project,
For the purposes of the paper we consider instrumental and informative outcomes that are defined as follows:
While the authors consider diverse approaches valuable in the realm of foresight to address societal challenges, for the purposes of this paper,
not only with the purpose of doing the evaluation of a project but mainly to draw conclusions on how foresight can be improved as an instrument contributing to knowledge creation for policy and decision-making in more general.
and even if our models are fit for purpose, there are always factors that lie outside of these models that may intervene.
Of course, Newtonian mechanics work well enough for everyday purposes, so their displacement of Einstein's theory of relativity may not be too bothersome.
and whose acts of creation are undertaken for the purpose of learning. An alternative approach the application of evolutionary theories to human faith, spirituality and religion is not necessarily incompatible with this.
Individual actors in FTA organise information in ways that are relevant to their purposes practical problems, conceptual challenges,()TD$FIG Knowledge Information Knowledge Socialisation:
which provide a record of development and material for presentational purposes, for other groups to inspect, for inclusion in final reports.
For this purpose, looking at the survey results we suggested a STEEP (Social-Cultural, Science & Technology, Energy, Ecology and Economy,
so it is deemed even more important to work toward a more commonly accepted set of definitions for purposes of future work in this area. 2. 1. Trends The starting point for scanning definitions is usually to identify the key trends which are presently evident in the broad sense of being both discernible
while clearly valid, were deemed too complicated for purposes of the survey. Mega-trends Trends come in different sizes.
when for purposes of scenario planning there is an attempt to define the key drivers or those having both great uncertainty and potentially high impact.
The following description provides perhaps the most relevant definition for purposes of the current paper:
The following definition indicates how discontinuities are being positioned by them for Foresight purposes:Discontinuities, which are those sudden, sharp breaks that can strike consumers, business sectors, nations,
The purpose of that tool is to disseminate weak signals in organizations easily and increase futures thinking
and moon Rights to robots Energy 9 Russia turns off gas oil for political purposes Solar energy price descants Shift to hydrogen energy Wrong prediction of oil prices by IEA Ecology
and extend it to other similar groups, in the next year or two, for comparison purposes.
Guest editorial FTA break new ground in response to grand challenges Vicente Carabias, Peter De Smedt and Thomas Teichler Abstract Purpose This Guest Editorial aims
A problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS for transport planning Jens Schippl and Torsten Fleischer Abstract Purpose As in other socio-technical fields, future-oriented technology analysis (FTA METHODS are used in transport planning
however, which method could be used for which purpose. In this paper, a transparent and problem-oriented categorisation of FTA METHODS is suggested.
Complexity science approaches to the application foresight Averil Horton Abstract Purpose This paper aims to present an exploration of recent work in complexity theory to explain why
History, Purposes, and Knowledge, Volume 1: Human Science for a New Era, Transaction Publishers, Piscataway, NJ.
Backcasting scenarios for Finland 2050 of low emissions Sirkka Heinonen and Ville Lauttama ki Abstract Purpose The objective of this paper is to present an example on how futures studies methodologies,
The purpose was to reflect various possibilities to achieve sustainable future and to stimulate discussion on
and urban planning Jose'Miguel Ferna'ndez Gu ell and Leticia Redondo Abstract Purpose This article aims to show the opportunity
For this purpose, the conceptual framework displaying the standard urban planning process, shown in Figure 1, is used to guide the implications analysis. Functional implications of Scenario A (2025).
The ultimate purpose of these parameters is to translate functional implications into quantitative values, so that their systematic tracking can lead to corrective measures. 4. 4 Step 4:
the cases of legal research, legislative drafting and law enforcement Norberto Nuno Gomes de Andrade Abstract Purpose This paper seeks to propose the application of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) to law.
For this purpose Futurict will build a sophisticated simulation, visualisation and participation platform, called the Living Earth Platform,
The central purpose of IFS is to facilitate exploration of global futures through alternative scenarios,
and normally were developed for other purposes. Their potential for implementation and the needs for modification have to be discussed
For that purpose it is proposed to fall back upon experiences with successful roadmapping exercises and to adapt the general concept of science
These roadmaps are intended to serve other purposes and follow more or less classical trajectories of roadmap development and application
either competence or capacity to investigate the potential of nanomaterials for their purposes or to perform a roadmapping process din houset.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1119 purposes, and what further benefits of the roadmapping process beyond structuring the field of nanotechnology can be expected. 5. Summary
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or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,
and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply,
or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,
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whether any purpose is served, in practice, by deferring to notions of philosophy and theory in a field where practical outcomes, based on learning;
Its purpose now is to set technology in the context of socioeconomic matters, ecology, politics and human values/norms of the STEEPV set.
but the next section necessarily sets out briefly their relation to the purpose of the paper, namely the influence of ignorance and uncertainty on FTA. 5. Quantitative and qualitative methods in FTA In a sense,
Whether these can be sustained asfit for purpose'is another matter. There is perhaps a new tier to be built on
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and circulated, they will legitimise, steer and coordinate efforts, also for unintended purposes. They may be used, for instance,
or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,
and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply,
or suitability for any purpose of the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,
and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply,
Recently, information visualization techniques have been used with corporate data to map several LDRD investment areas for the purpose of understanding strategic overlaps and identifying potential opportunities for future development outside of our current technologies.
The purpose of these visualizations was to identify past and present technological competencies and overlaps of competencies, within the IAS.
The purpose of this set of visualizations, hereafter referred to as bdoe LDRD, Q was to place Sandia's IA activities within a broader context,
one of the purposes of generating a Sandia-specific map of IAS was to benchmark the map against the mental models of IA leads.
and is shown in Fig. 6. The purpose of this map was primarily to identify additional opportunities by comparison of Sandia IA data with work of national interest that is being funded at other DOE laboratories.
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The project had an explicit strategic purpose of initiating a newservice mind-set'in the organisation.
The third research phase, the scenaari and visionworkshop, had two purposes: to create four external scenarios
such as defining the organisation's core purpose, framed in a systemic-temporal paradox. The second insight is to endorse structural openness.
This means to define a space of possibilities unfurled in the context of the core purpose.
Customization of technology roadmaps according to roadmapping purposes: Overall process and detailed modules. Technological forecasting & Social Change 72, no. 5: 567 83.
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and new tools that might be adapted to one's purposes. What has been lacking is a systematic way of compiling this intelligence on a given NEST regarding the development pathway
This could help us to identify potential partners with complementary interests at different places along this technology development progression, thereby servingOpen innovation'purposes (Chesbrough 2006.
Identifying expected areas of future innovation by combining foresight outputs Yoshiko Yokoo and Kumi Okuwada Abstract Purpose This paper attempts to examine the efficacy of combining outputs from a foresight exercise by different
Strategic dialogues for research policy making in Germany Frauke Lohr, Sebastian Hallensleben and Amina Beyer-Kutzner Abstract Purpose The mere generation of foresight results is not sufficient in itself to influence research policy.
Foresight andgrand challenges''within research and innovation policies Martin Rhisiart Abstract Purpose The paper seeks to discuss how foresight is used to understand the implications of global changes for research and innovation policies.
''Foresight has long been used for social purposes. However, with the increasing acceptance of grand challenges, Foresight is expected to make a contribution to orienting innovation towards broader issues (Georghiou et al.
For illustrative purposes, an example is given of a high impact and high likelihood trend (converging technologies; there is one example of a high impact
S&t&i priorities for the Russian natural resources sector Sergey Shashnov and Anna Sokolova Abstract Purpose This paper aims to analyse three individual foresight projects referring to the natural resources sector in Russia, their interconnection
These FS1 results were used as an information source for many political purposes: B revision of National S&t priorities and Critical technologies;
It was for this purpose that the FS3 project was realised. In the framework of this study proposals to amend the relevant RF Ministry of Natural resources strategic documents (for example, Ecological Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Civil Code of the Russian Federation, Land Code of the Russian Federation
Table IV The influence of the foresight studies on policy decision-making Influence on policy-making Evaluation of influence on policy-making FS1 The foresight data were used as an information source for many political purposes:
Mapping of future technology themes in sustainable energy Hai-Chen Lin, Te-Yi Chan and Cheng-Hua Ien Abstract Purpose To anticipate science
suppliers and peer companies, knowing the capabilities and intents of other organization for noncompetitive purposes.
which are fit for purpose and context, and which enable the building of trust through inclusiveness and transparency in processes,
which method is suited best for purposes of simulating technological evolution and/or for developing useful tools for technological forecasting.
Thismeans that the defensive action developed for the second region served its purpose by steering the commissioning toward Technologies 3 and 4. The third region shows that certain combinations of economic growth factors
For this purpose we use the investment cost of new technologies as a signpost. A possible defensive action would be to subsidize one
Thus, this study is in line with the purpose of FTA projects that aim at developing long-term, adaptive,
it showed that theory wasa far more effective means than observation for precisely characterizing complex orbital motions physical theory gained primacy over observation for purposes of answering specific questions about the world'3. Over the course of the eighteenth century,
and the purpose of the study. In this way, together these cases offer a good overview of what EMA is about,
The purpose of these studies, which are actively using EMA, is to create insight into the possible dynamics
The purpose of EMA in this case is to help in the development of an adaptive plan for the long-term development of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol that is robust across the wide variety of uncertainties experienced by the airport. 3. 2. 1. Model
This model is a general purpose model, by parameterizing it for the specifics of a particular airport (runway locations, etc.
a purpose for which it was used in the first case study. The techniques used in each of the tree cases do not exclude each other.
we have shown that EMA can be used for that purpose. Future research avenues include elaborating on the use of EMA for designing dynamic adaptive policies and the use of EMA for 429 J. H. Kwakkel, E. Pruyt/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80
Scenario building and planning was developed further for management purposes, for example through the works of Pierre Wack
Contextual features will include, among other things, the morphology or physiology of the domain, the purpose and theoretical premises of the study,
For this purpose they combine Foresight with elements from market research innovation management and human-centred product design.
The purpose of the project was to analyse the state of the Danish democracy at the start of the 21st century.
people are more familiar and experienced with foresight for policymakkin purposes than at the local level.
as a result of which the concrete added value of the scenarios for the purpose of visioning and strategy development can end up being obscured.
and the prefixeslocal'andnational'do not serve any purpose with regard to foresight studies. Different methods of foresight (for example different types of qualitative scenarios) are available,
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