| Deep uncertainty (50) |  |
| Epistemic uncertainty (12) | |
| Fundamental uncertainty (4) | |
| Great uncertainty (5) | |
| Uncertainty (741) | |
| Deep uncertainty (50) | |
| Epistemic uncertainty (12) | |
| Fundamental uncertainty (4) | |
| Great uncertainty (5) | |
| Uncertainty (741) | |
Fundamental uncertainty surrounds the exploitation and development of new technologies. Much has been made about the convergence of new technologies, particularly in the information,
Trend extrapolation approaches, for instance, are based on tracking the emergence of new technologies only once a dominant design is secured 4. This solution of tracking dominant designs neglects some of the fundamental uncertainty associated with technological evolution.
New techniques for managing the fundamental uncertainty in technological design and evolution are needed therefore. Previous work has provided technology analysts with a set of techniques for both integrating and decomposing new technologies.
Some common lines of thought seem to emerge around the recognition of fundamental uncertainty and unpredictability Such notions lead several authors to remind us on the role of FTA to challenge persisting premises on extrapolated futures based on past events.
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