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Last time I looked at the effect of a global pandemic, this time I'm looking at how we might change the agricultural landscape by hacking plants.
What if a pandemic strikes? Over the past century, humans have been transforming the planet so profoundly that we are pushing it into a new geological era, the Anthropocene (the Age of man.
what if our species were hit by a global pandemic? In the Anthropocene we are encroaching on wild lands,
But the sudden global explosion of an epidemic that infects a large number of the population oe a pandemic oe is harder to predict.
We know a pandemic has occurred every 10-50 years for the past few centuries, and the last one was in 1968,
whether there will be a new pandemic, but of when it will occur. Pandemics, which kill a significant proportion of the population have acute and lasting effects on society.
The Black death, a bubonic plague during the Middle ages caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, killed 30%-60%of Europeans (80%of people in the south of France and Spain) and reduced global population from 450 million to around 350 million.
The impacts of this pandemic should have been especially severe because unusually, more than half of those who died were young working-age adults,
So what would be the result of a global pandemic in the 21st Century? The world's population in the middle Ages was just a few hundred million;
But what if the pandemic was really severe oe killing 80%-90%of our species?
Wouldn't it be great to achieve some of these desirable planetary outcomes without the horrific suffering of a global pandemic?
Is China's flu pandemic the next big one? China's flu pandemic: The big one?
Laurie Garrett Foreign policy 24 april 2013 Ten years after Sars, a new virus strikes China, perhaps more deadly,
Planets, pandemics and powerthe vanishing groves Ross Andersen Aeon 16 october 2012 A superb essay on the world's oldest trees, the bristlecone pines of California,
Where will the next pandemic come from? And how can we stop it? David Quammen Popsci 15 october 2012 The best guess:
sufficiently virulent and transmissible to cause a pandemic capable of killing tens of millions of people?
The prospect of a new viral pandemic, for these sober professionals, looms large. They say it might happen anytime.
and producing a pandemic in which millions of people could die. ECONOMIC AND FOOD SECURITY THREAT In Southeast asia, China and parts of Africa, bird flu is already a major economic and food security issue,
and still debated, is sugar s role in the obesity and chronic disease pandemic. From an evolutionary perceptive, sugar in the form of fruit was available only a few months of the year, at harvest time,
However it's unlikely the virus could cause a pandemic unless it undergoes genetic changes that allow it to spread more efficiently between people experts say.
Because H7n9 doesn't transmit very well through the air it doesn't look like it has the capacity to cause a pandemic
Despite widespread fears among public health officials that the earlier bird flu strain years ago might become a human-to-human pandemic that didn't occur.
New Rules on Mutant Bird flu Research Stir Debate What's more it could reignite fears about the possibility of deadly global pandemics.
A decade ago several well-known virologists and public-health experts warned in published papers that the world was at risk for pandemics that could kill tens of millions of people or even more without adequate infectious disease monitoring and medical research.
The 2006 Chinese bird flu outbreak came on the heels of those global pandemic warnings. The good news is that China is more transparent about disease epidemics now than it was a decade ago
If the suspicions of human-to-human transmission potential is confirmed that alone makes the threat of a pandemic (as opposed to a series of local outbreaks that can be contained with efforts to close down poultry markets or the sale of infected birds) more likely.
In the case of a pandemic a vaccine would need to be developed and distributed quickly.
The new report does not mean that H7n9 is getting closer to causing a pandemic in people James Rudge
The influenza pandemic policies and responses recommended and taken by WHO were influenced not improperly by the pharmaceutical industry,
Researchers from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warn that pregnant women might be increased at risk for complications from pandemic H1n1 in a research paper in eventid=login>The Lancet (hithardbyswi. html>more on this story.
At this time, there is no evidence to indicate the development of widespread antiviral resistance among pandemic H1n1 viruses.
The world is in a full-blown influenza pandemic for the first time in 41 years. 9 june 2009: THE WHO reports that Inuit communities in Canada may be particularly hard-hit.
It continues to face questions as to why a full-blown pandemic has not been declared. 8 june 2009:
THE WHO says it is 6swineflupandemic get. html>inching closer to moving its pandemic alert status to phase 6,
which would denote official global pandemic status. 1 june 2009: June opens with 17,410 cases reported in 62 countries,
and declaring a pandemic, that the global extent of a pandemic should be described objectively and should be just one factor in decisions about how to respond.
22 may 2009: Australia raises its alert level to'Contain, 'even as the Mexican government relaxes its restrictions in Mexico city.
However the pandemic alert level is still at five today, one level below a full pandemic.
A modeling study in Science suggests that the virus spreads at a rate comparable to that of previous influenza pandemics.
THE WHO raises pandemic level alert to phase 5, a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent.
First swine-flu death outside Mexico reported as a baby dies in Texas. 161/nn200120/DE/Content/Service/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2009/082009. html>Germany joins European countries with H1n1
THE WHO 0427/en/index. html>raises pandemic alert level to 4 having confirmed human-to-human transmission able to cause'community-level outbreaks'.
'Phase 4 indicates a significant increase in risk of a pandemic but does not necessarily mean that a pandemic is a forgone conclusion,
says the organisation. 25 april 2009: WHO director-general, Margaret Chan calls the flu problem a public health emergency of 0425/en/index. html>international concern.
Nature Newspublic-health experts are warning that a lack of surveillance may be allowing the 2009 pandemic H1n1 flu virus to go undetected in pigs.
Their main concern tends to be that any reports of the pandemic virus in pigs might provoke overreactions such as the mass culling of pigs that took place in Egypt
Within minutes of the World health organization (WHO) announcement on 11 june that swine flu had become a pandemic, Bernard Vallat, director-general of an intergovernmental trade body,
and his colleagues concluded that the lack of systematic swine surveillance allowed for the undetected persistence and evolution of this potentially pandemic strain for many years.
The pandemic virus has so far been found in pigs from just one farm, in Alberta, Canada,
Past pandemic viruses have gone also on to become endemic in pig populations. It's absolutely surprising that a virus this contagious in both humans and swine
Absence of evidence of the pandemic virus in pig populations is not evidence of absence,
however its member states to voluntarily report any occurrences of the 2009 pandemic virus in pigs.
Network members hope that with the pandemic highlighting the need for better pig surveillance new funding will be forthcoming.
-and public-health communities underestimated the potential for pigs to generate a pandemic virus . Although pigs can be infected with many subtypes of flu,
Most expected that any new pandemic would involve the introduction of a viral subtype not previously seen in humans,
The consensus was that a pandemic could not be caused by H1, H2 or H3 because the current human population would have antibodies against them,
The emergence of the reassorted H1n1 pandemic virus which current research indicates noone has any immunity to, apart, perhaps,
Pandemic flu viruses brew for years before going global: Nature Newsfamily trees for pandemic influenza have revealed that components of deadly flu viruses probably lurk in humans
and other animals for years before they emerge as a worldwide threat to human health.
The work suggests that a more thorough characterization of circulating flu viruses could provide clues to an emerging pandemic before it hits.
ultimately giving rise to the dangerous assortment of genes carried by the 1918 virus. This work suggests that the generation of pandemic strains
is key to identifying possible pandemic strains and their future evolution. Yi Guan of the University of Hong kong, Robert Webster of St jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee,
and then swapped genes with mammalian flu viruses before becoming a pandemic. Meanwhile, elements of the 1957 pandemic flu virus also thought to be a mosaic of human
and avian flu genes were introduced probably into human populations two to six years before the pandemic, the researchers found.
These analyses were completed before the current pandemic swine flu strain made its mark, but the researchers argue that their results have implications for future pandemics.
Results from 1918 and 1957 pandemic flu suggest that public-health authorities should track the sequences of all influenza virus genes in emerging strains
the authors argue, rather than focusing largely on the gene that encodes the haemagglutinin'protein,
which is critical for vaccine production, as is the current practice. Nevertheless, reliance upon patchy data from historical flu viruses has its limitations.
Swine flu shares some features with 1918 pandemic: Nature Newsas far as your immune system is concerned, the pandemic H1n1 (swine flu virus currently circling the globe bears an uncanny resemblance to an influenza virus that wreaked havoc nearly a century ago,
researchers have found. For months, it has been apparent that swine flu strikes the young more often than the old an unusual pattern that suggests older patients could have been exposed to similar viruses in the past.
are effective against the new pandemic virus in human cells grown in the lab. These drugs are already being used to treat some infected patients.
and the severity of the present pandemic does not come close to the 1918 flu, but experts worry that the new virus could become more virulent over time.
Pandemic flu: People infected with the H1n1 swine flu virus who are otherwise healthy should not routinely be given antiviral drugs,
which handles samples of H1n1 pandemic flu, and which earlier this year lost track of 22 vials containing harmless Ebola-virus genetic material.
Pandemic over: The World health organization (WHO) announced on 10 august that the world is no longer experiencing an H1n1 influenza virus pandemic.
An emergency committee, which convened that day, said that countries were generally not reporting out-of-season outbreaks of the flu strain,
director-general of THE WHO, said the pandemic had turned out better than feared because the virus hadn't mutated into a more lethal form
Virus sharing In the event of a future flu pandemic, member states of the World health organization (WHO) will send samples of flu virus to laboratories and drug makers around the world,
whether the public-health benefits of the work outweigh the risks of a potential pandemic if the virus escaped from the lab. For the scientists who have created the mutated strains of the H5n1 virus,
and other animals for the mutations that would provide an early warning of a pandemic
and that it sends a valuable warning about the potential for the virus to spark a human pandemic.
Scientists contacted By nature say that basic research on such mutated strains may eventually yield insight relevant to developing pandemic countermeasures such as drugs and vaccines.
which are only capable of supplying vaccine six months after a pandemic starts, and of producing enough vaccine for a small fraction of the world population.
"In order to even consider the possibility of reducing the animal reservoir of an emerging pandemic virus,
or years after they are collected hardly the swift turnaround of a pandemic alert system.""Could we pick up a mutation in real time
and stop a pandemic? asks Capua.""Not with the surveillance we have now. Source: Genbankmoreover, if H5n1 surveillance in poultry is poor,
Yet pigs are a likely source of a human pandemic H5n1 virus because they are susceptible to both human
But even if a candidate pandemic H5n1 virus was detected in poultry, culling flocks to eliminate it would be no mean feat.
H5n1 is far from being the only flu virus that poses a pandemic threat. But he believes that more extensive genetic surveillance could eventually pay off."
Timely global surveillance of animal flu viruses is crucial not just for identifying pandemic threats,
because"H5n1 is not the sole pandemic candidate, and low pathogenic viruses are just as likely, if not more likely,
to become pandemic. The number of avian flu sequences deposited in the database skyrocketed between 2003 and 2010,
Yet pigs are a serious pandemic risk: they can be infected co with both human and avian flu strains,
the emergence of pandemic strains such as the 2009 H1n1 pandemic virus. The world is home to some 1 billion domestic pigs, almost half
The pandemic risk posed by pigs has risen also since 2009. The 2009 pandemic H1n1 virus,
which is now endemic in pigs, is unusual in that it contains the triple reassortant internal gene (TRIG) cassette,
a highly conserved set of six genes that allows the virus to swap genes with flu viruses from other species much more freely than the seasonal H1n1 that circulated before 2009 (see Pandemic 2009 H1n1 virus gives wings to avian flu).
but"we are noting lots of reassortment between the pandemic virus and endemic swine viruses, says Peiris.
because it contains a gene from the H1n1 pandemic strain that may increase transmissibility among humans.
triggering a global pandemic, reminded us of the need to monitor animals such as pigs that can host the development of dangerous viral strains.
Like that responsible for the 2009 pandemic, the new strain, known as Sw/1204, is a'triple-reassortant'virus that is, one with genes from avian, swine and human flu.
Choi wanted to assess the pandemic potential of Korean strains. His team tested two H1n2
and two H3n2 viruses isolated from pig abattoirs before the 2009 pandemic. Most of these viruses did not cause any signs of serious disease in ferrets.
but not transmissibility, in the pandemic H1n1 strain. NA315N has also been found before, but its role is less clear.
global pandemics and/or deliberate biological attacks? To further improve preparedness, we must continue to invest in the best public health monitoring systems that can be built.
Maryland. go. nature. com/wfnyw227-30 april Flu pandemics, the resurgence of measles and antimicrobial resistance are discussed all at the European Society of Clinical Microbiology
or morph into a virus that can spread easily between people and spark a deadly pandemic.
If a pandemic were to occur, it would probably have a severe toll. But it is too early to predict how events will unfold;
potentially sparking a pandemic. Scientists stress that it is much too early to do a full risk assessment of the potential pandemic threat.
But the initial analysis of viral sequences is"worrisome because they show several features that are suggestive of adaptation to humans,
This is in contrast to the 2009 H1n1 pandemic virus, which was a mix of viruses that infect birds, pigs and humans.
which caused a pandemic among humans in 2009. In the study, H1n1 infected more cells
But the surge in H7n9 flu cases highlights the continuing public-health and possibly pandemic threat that it poses.
Study revives bird origin for 1918 flu pandemicthe virus that caused the 1918 influenza pandemic probably sprang from North american domestic and wild birds, not from the mixing of human and swine viruses.
pigs and bats using a model they developed to map evolutionary relationships between viruses from different host species. The branched tree that resulted showed that the genes of the deadly 1918 pandemic virus are of avian origin.
A 2005 genetic analysis of the 1918 pandemic virus pulled from a victim s preserved tissue concluded that it most closely matched viruses of avian origin2.
and swine for at least 2 to 15 years before the pandemic and combined to make the lethal virus. Gavin Smith, an evolutionary biologist at Duke-NUS Graduate Medical school at the National University of Singapore,
That's not exactly the kind of scene you imagine for the beginning of a sci-fi movie about the next big pandemic.
The H1n1 flu that reached pandemic proportions in 2009 first spent some time circulating among pigs in Asia Europe and North america.
The findings highlight the potential for cows to serve as a reservoir for bacteria with the capacity for pandemic spread in humans.
and hopefully prevent the birth of the next pandemic S. aureus strain. Story Source: The above story is provided based on materials by American Society for Microbiology.
Our findings reinforce that the novel virus possesses the potential for pandemic spread. So does this imply that H7n9 has come one step closer towards adapting fully to humans ask James Rudge
while this study might not suggest that H7n9 is any closer to delivering the next pandemic it does provide a timely reminder of the need to remain extremely vigilant:
The virus has several highly unusual traits that paint a disquieting picture of a pathogen that may yet lead to a pandemic according to lead scientists from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious diseases.
The possibility that H7n9 might infect pigs is particularly troubling as swine are considered a mixing vessel for viruses--a breeding ground for novel viral reassortants like the 2009 H1n1 pandemic influenza strain commonly known as swine flu.
Regardless of its future H7n9 certainly holds lessons for preventing human and animal pandemics. All the unknowns surrounding the virus make a strong case for enhancing basic and applied research into the evolution of influenza viruses and for better integration of influenza virology within human and veterinary public health efforts.
and spark a pandemic so information about swine susceptibility to H7n9 could help scientists gauge the pandemic potential of the avian virus. Unlike the ferrets infected pigs in this small study did not transmit virus to uninfected pigs
and culling of poultry in affected areas should be taken during this initial stage of virus prevalence to prevent a possible pandemic.
#Potential flu pandemic lurks: Influenza viruses circulating in pigs, birds could pose risk to humansin the summer of 1968 a new strain of influenza appeared in Hong kong.
and have the potential to generate a pandemic if they leap to humans. The researchers led by Ram Sasisekharan the Alfred H. Caspary Professor of Biological Engineering at MIT also found that current flu vaccines might not offer protection against these strains.
From a pandemic-preparedness point of view we should potentially start including some of these H3 strains as part of influenza vaccines.
or birds have caused several notable flu pandemics. When one of these avian or swine viruses gains the ability to infect humans it can often evade the immune system which is primed to recognize only strains that commonly infect humans.
since the 1968 pandemic but they have evolved to a less dangerous form that produces a nasty seasonal flu.
In 2009 a strain of H1n1 emerged that was very similar to the virus that caused a 1918 pandemic that killed 50 million to 100 million people.
This value indicates the percentage of these genetic regions identical to those of the 1968 pandemic strain
since 2000 that could potentially cause a pandemic. Of these 549 came from birds and 32 from pigs.
The pandemic of CBSD now underway is particularly worrisome because agriculture experts have been looking to the otherwise resilient cassava plant
Great success was achieved in combating the CMD pandemic through developing and disseminating varieties that were resistant to CMD.
But by a cruel twist of nature both improved and local varieties all succumbed to the'new'pandemic of CBSD.
A lack of information about the virus and its mode of transmission has led to public concerns that H7n9 could be a pandemic waiting to happen.
However so far there is no evidence of the sustained human-to-human transmission required for a pandemic to occur.
Although there is no evidence so far that this virus will result in a human pandemic this outbreak provides a reminder of the importance for all countries to ensure they have an appropriate stockpile of antiviral medication.
and should aim to reduce the risk of emergence of human pandemic agents. Dr. Pongpisut Jongudomsuk Director of the Health Systems Research Institute Thailand and Chair of the APEIR Steering committee said:
#Predicting hotspots for future flu outbreaksthis year's unusually long and rocky flu season would be compared nothing to the pandemic that could occur
and generate a future pandemic said lead author Trevon Fuller a UCLA postdoctoral research fellow at the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability's Center for Tropical Research.
Previous pandemics such as the 1957 and 1968 influenzas that each killed more than a million people or the 2009 H1n1 swine flu outbreak that killed 280000 worldwide developed
and prevent the next pandemic he said. The researchers looked for locations where bird flu outbreaks human flu outbreaks
It also helps resolve the origin of the virus that caused the unprecedentedly severe influenza pandemic of 1918 The new research is likely to change how scientists
when and from where pandemic viruses emerged. Once you resolve the evolutionary trees for these viruses correctly everything snaps into place
Ever since the influenza pandemic of 1918 it has not been possible to narrow down even to a hemisphere the geographic origins of any of the genes of the pandemic virus. Our study changes that Worobey said.
will help to alleviate the pandemic of inactivity and obesity in the city. A recent Victorian Health Report shows poor nutrition accounts for around one-sixth of the total burden of ill health in the state
By attacking this adaptability, pandemic skeptic Peter Palese of the Mt. Sinai School of medicine in New york says,
What is the potential for a possible pandemic? I think it is inevitable that there will be another pandemic.
But if you look at the pandemics we've seen they have all been from viruses of the H1, H2 and H3 type.
In 1918 with H1, 1957 with H2, 1968 with H3 and in 2009 with H1 again.
What can we do to prevent a pandemic? The best hope is to monitor what is going on in these animal populations.
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