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What is the position of individual European locations in the global network of ICT activity? The EIPE project had four main steps (see Figure 1). First,
Web of Science by Thomson Reuters...132 8. 4 R&d Centre Location by IHS isuppli...
innovation and business and have gained an enviable hub position in a usually very complex web of network connections.
in the Computer science area produced by organisations located in the observed region Unit of measurement Region's share in the total number of publications in Computer science to a region's share in the EU population Definition of ICT dimension Computer science as defined by Web
Web of Science by Thomson Reuters (Section 8. 3) Reference year (s) considered 2000-2012 59 Figure 33:
's share in the EU population Definition of ICT dimension ICT areas of the FP7 programme Based on HIS isuppli classification of the major"semiconductors influencers"Computer science as defined by Web of Science classification of Research
Web of Science b Thomson Reuters (Section 8. 3) Reference year (s) considered 2007-2011 2012 2000-2012 122 6. 1. 2
Web of Science by Thomson Reuters Web of Science is an online academic citation index provided by Thomson Reuters. It is designed for providing access to multiple databases, cross-disciplinary research,
In addition, literature which shows the greatest impact in a field covered by Web of Science,
Web of Science has indexing coverage from the year 1900 to the present. Regarding the coverage,
utility facilities including telecommunications networks, airports, ports or other, fixed infrastructure investments, extraction activities (ores, minerals or fuels), portfolio investments (i e. pensions, insurance and financial funds),
and optical media, 4651-Wholesale of computers, computer peripheral equipment and software, 4652-Wholesale of electronic and telecommunications equipment and parts, 582-Software publishing, 611-Wired telecommunications
activities, 612-Wireless telecommunications activities, 613-Satellite telecommunications activities, 619-Other telecommunications activities, 6201-Computer programming activities, 6202-Computer consultancy activities
6311-Data processing, hosting and related activities, 6312-Web portals, 9511-Repair of computers and peripheral equipment,
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What is the position of individual European locations in the global network of ICT activity? The EIPE project had four main steps (see Figure 1). First,
Web of Science by Thomson Reuters...33 5. 4 ICT R&d centre location: Design Activity Tool by IHS isuppli...
and also international reach and centrality in global networks. This view encompasses a certain affiliation with the concept of industrial clusters,
computer peripheral equipment and software 4652 Wholesale of electronic and telecommunications equipment and parts 5820 Software publishing 61 Telecommunications 62 Computer programming,
web portals 951 Repair of computers and communication equipment With respect to the technology, examples of the characterization used include:
FP7 data on FP participation from EC DG Connect, REGPAT by OECD, QS WORLD UNIVERSITY RANKINGS by QS, Web of Science by Thomson Reuters, Design Activity Tool by IHS isuppli, European
. 4) Computer science as defined by Web of Science classification of Research Areas Unit of observation NUTS 3 Source FP7 database by EC DG Connect (see Section 5. 2) ICT
Web of Science by Thomson Reuters (see Section 5. 3) Reference year (s) considered 2007-2011 2012 2000-2012 Data on the agglomeration of ICT R&d is extracted from information
of the research institutions in Europe for the period 2000-2012 from the Web of Science by Thomson Reuters. For a detailed description of the data source, see Section 5. 3. 20 Company-level
Web of Science by Thomson Reuters, 4. ICT R&d centres locations: Design Activity Tool by IHS isuppli, 5. European Investment Monitor by Ernst & young, 6. Patent data:
Web of Science by Thomson Reuters The Web of Science is an online academic citation index provided by Thomson Reuters. It is designed to provide access to multiple databases, cross-disciplinary research,
In addition, literature which shows the greatest impact in a field covered by the Web of Science,
The Web of Science has indexing coverage from 1900 to the present. 17 More information at:
the Web of Science encompasses over 11,000 journals selected on the basis of impact evaluations.
utility facilities including telecommunications networks, airports, ports or other, fixed infrastructure investments, extraction activities (ores, minerals or fuels),
Google's Pagerank is a variant of the Eigenvector centrality measure (Spizzirri, 2011. In practical terms, eigenvector centrality is a measure of the importance of a node in a network,
Centrality in social networks conceptual clarification. Social networks, 1 (3), 215-239. Fujita, M, . & Thisse, J.-F. 1996).
Economics of Agglomeration: C. E. P. R. Discussion Papers. Fujita, M, . & Thisse, J.-F. 2002).
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Telecommunications Manufacturing and industry Basic metals and of fabricated metal products Basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations Biotechnology Chemicals and chemical products Coke and refined petroleum
A great deal of additional information on the European union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server http://europa. eu/.How to obtain EU publications Our priced publications are available from EU Bookshop (http://bookshop. europa. eu),
You can obtain their contact details by sending a fax to (352) 29 29-42758.
Telecommunications J. 62: Computer programming, consultancy and related activities J. 63: Information service activities As our approach is aligned with the underlying logic of the Frascati Manual,
The survey highlights-among other things-the importance of establishing secure mobile and online payment systems, making available more radio spectrums (in particular for the mobile data market), investing into high-speed broadband connections,
while the EU's BERD/value added ratio of telecommunication services is no worse than that of the US,
while the EU and South korea have similar indicators in terms of the manufacture of telecommunication and multimedia equipment and components.
while the share of telecommunications equipment, which made up nearly 50%of sectoral exports in 2011,
Declining imports in 2011 were mostly related to telecommunications equipment (42.6%share in 2011) and electronic components (representing 22.6%).
'but there was also a significant proportion of companies looking for partners by visiting trade expos and fairs or by browsing specialist magazines, following announcements and websites.
websites By visi+ng trade expos and fairs We tend to be contacted by others By using own social network 0%20%40%60%80%100%The share of R&d expenditure in the ICT sector
-080523 OECD Information and Technology Outlook (2010) http://www. oecd. org/internet/interneteconomy/oecdinformationtechnologyoutlook2010. htm OECD:
Key ICT Indicators http://www. oecd. org/internet/broadbandandtelecom/oecdkeyictindicators. htm Oslo Manual guidelines for collecting
through the National Innovation Office Kaleidoszkóp internet portal www. kaleidoszkop. nih. gov. hu. Figure 1: The EU's ICT sector in international comparison (2007.
and mapping project opportunities Bemutatkozó Phone:++36 1 484 2500 Fax:++36 1 318 7998 E-mail:
info@nih. gov. hu Web: http://www. nih. gov. hu http://kaleidoszkop. nih. gov. hu/ISSN 2063-7748 ISBN 978-963-08-5934-9 NATIONAL
INNOVATION OFFICE INFORMATION SYSTEM
Research, Development & Innovation in Hungary This publication was made under the auspices of the National Innovation Oice, Department of RDI Observatory.
can be downloaded from the Kaleidoszkóp website: http://kaleidoszkop. nih. gov. hu/en Editing closed: 1 oct 2013 w w w. k a l e i d o s z k o p. n i h. g o v. h u/e
+36 1 484 2500 fax:++36 1 318 7998 e-mail: info@nih. gov. hu Web:
www. nih. gov. hu National Innovation Oice (NIH) is the governmental body responsible for research, development and technological innovation. 18 Kaleidoszkóp Kaleidoszkóp's main objectives:
Global Internet consumer traffic growth trends over time 16 Figure 2: Global consumer Internet traffic 17 Figure 3:
The evolution over time of consumer bandwidth demand during the busy hour 20 Figure 4:
Predicted 100 Mbps FTTC/VDSL European household coverage in 2020 31 Figure 7: Percentage of households passed by cable (2010) 36 Figure 8:
incremental CAPEX and OPEX needed to achieve 4 Mbps download and 1 Mbps upload speed 42 Figure 15:
The broadband deployment gap in the United states 43 Figure 16: Cost of covering different geotypes, from most dense to least dense, in Spain 44 Figure 17:
Cost and ARPU per customer per month for FTTH P2p Ethernet at 70%penetration 45 Figure 18.
Annualized cost (Present Value) of CAPEX per user (€) with a requirement for a guaranteed 10 Mbps 61 Figure 25:
Internet households by average traffic per month 18 Table 2: Average and busy hour global consumer household bandwidth requirements 19 Table 3:
1) availability of broadband for all Europeans in 2013,2) deployment of 30 Mbps broadband capability to all Europeans by 2020,
and (3) adoption of 100 Mbps broadband by 50%of European households by 2020. The detailed meaning of these goals is,
Per projections based on Cisco VNI data, average global bandwidth demand per household in 2020 (the target data for achieving the DAE's objectives for ultra-fast broadband) is less than 2 Mbps
Ability of different technologies to meet realistic consumer demand Eurodocsis 3. 0 cable systems already comfortably exceed the 100 Mbps called for in the DAE.
Mbps 3. Similar considerations apply to 4g wireless systems. There are surely limitations on the ability of wireless solutions alone to meet DAE objectives in dense population centres,
notably including the fixed telecommunications network, but also including cable television networks, as well as fixed and mobile wireless services.
For the fixed telecommunications network, there are significant uncertainties as to the quality of currently available data.
For wireless broadband, the footprint of LTE and LTE-Advanced can be expected to be at least as broad in 2020 as that of 2g and 3g networks today.
suggest that full achievement based solely on fibre-based telecommunications solutions is unlikely without some degree of public policy intervention and/or subsidy.
In any event, upgrading existing digital cable is substantially less expensive than deploying new fibre-based telecommunications networks, thanks to the benefits of sharing existing coaxial cable to multiple customer premises.
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Population density FTTH-GPON FTTC-VDSL DOCSIS 6/12/30 Mbps LTE
cable and mobile all compete, versus 1+competition, where only fixed and mobile compete. Facilities-based inter-modal competition
even if limited to discrete geographic areas, may have the tendency to constrain prices to reasonable levels across much larger geographic areas. 8 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) Overall assessment A more technologically neutral approach to the DAE,
a DSLAM is a network device that is commonly provided by telecommunications operators; it connects multiple costumer digital subscriber lines to the network EIB European Investment Bank EU European union FTTX Fibre to the x;
. Dutch telecommunications company 10 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) LTE/LTEADVANCED Long-term-Evolution,
the newest standards for wireless communication of high-speed data Mbps Mega bit per second (one million bits per second) MDF Main distribution frame MDU Multiple Dwelling Unit
National Regulatory authority OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OPEX Operating Expenditure PSTN Public Switched Telephone Network P2p Point-to-Point;
and watch video content over a network Wimax Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access WTP Willingness to Pay 4g Fourth-generation mobile communication standard 11.1 INTRODUCTION Key
The DAE includes full broadband availability in 2013,100%availability of 30 Mbps (henceforth called fast broadband) in 2020,
and 50%adoption of 100 Mbps (henceforth called ultra-fast broadband) by 2020.2 The rationale for promoting widespread deployment and adoption of broadband,
including ultra-fast (30 Mbps or more) broadband, seems clear enough. Widespread availability of broadband is viewed widely as an important contributor to European economic wellbeing,
What is the current and likely future role of cable broadband as a competitor to telecoms broadband?
and/or upgrade of cable infrastructure accelerate the deployment of telecoms broadband? Section 2 reviews the DAE objectives.
1) availability of broadband for all Europeans in 2013,2) deployment of 30 Mbps broadband capability to all European by 2020,
and (3) adoption of 100 Mbps broadband by 50%of European households. The detailed meaning of these goals is less clear.
Per projections based on Cisco VNI data, average global bandwidth demand per household in the busy hour in 2020 is less than 2 Mbps. Ultra-fast broadband access is useful,
Eurodocsis 3 0 cable systems already comfortably exceed the 100 Mbps called for in the DAE. Even with current technology, cable networks are capable of meeting realistic consumer bandwidth demand well in excess of that which is likely to be present in 2020 and considerably beyond.
Similar considerations apply to 4g wireless systems. There are surely limitations on the ability of wireless solutions alone to meet DAE objectives in dense population centres
by 2020, to ensure that all Europeans have access to much higher Internet speeds of above 30 Mbps,
%or more of European households subscribe to Internet connections above 100 Mbps. 6 These goals would seem to be clear,
but that deserves to be raised, has to do with the distribution of the 50%of households that are to subscribe to ultrafast broadband at speeds of 100 Mbps
There are numerous projections of the growth in European Internet traffic over time, notably including the annual Cisco Virtual Networking Index (VNI).
8 Cisco analysts compile data from multiple sources in order to estimate current and future Internet traffic by region, by application,
and fixed versus mobile (see Figure 2). There is of course uncertainty with any projection of the future,
Global consumer Internet traffic Source: Cisco VNI (2012). 9 Internet traffic growth trends in Western europe are expected not to differ greatly from global trends.
Western European IP traffic is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 27%per year over the period,
2015 2016 Voip Online Gaming File sharing Web/Data Internet Video 29%CAGR 2011-2016 Petabytes per Month 22%23%54%18
Internet households by average traffic per month Number of households by Traffic per Month (Millions of Households) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 CAGR Households generating more than 50
Cisco VNI (2011). 11 Translating the above Cisco data into Mbps demand, during the average hour and during the busy hour,
Average and busy hour global consumer household bandwidth requirements Household generating more per month than GB Mean BW>Mbps Busy Hr BW>Mbps 2010 2011
Even in 2020, the average demand during the busy hour is well below 2 Mbps. This has important implications,
The Western European share of total Internet traffic is expected to remain fairly constant over the next five years,
2019 2020 Mbps 21. Ultra-fast broadband access is useful, but it is not necessary to assume that every broadband user will consume maximum capacity all the time.
Eurodocsis 3. 0 cable systems already comfortably exceed the 100 Mbps called for in the DAE. Even with current technology, cable networks are capable of meeting realistic consumer bandwidth demand well in excess of that which is likely to be present in 2020,
Similar considerations apply to 4g wireless systems. Key questions relate to the number of individual users (not households) who must be served by each tower,
and providers of Internet applications, services and content benefit by selling services to consumers or by selling advertising to a wide range of firms.
Telecommunications Policy, vol. 33; P. 471-485.20 See Fornefeld, M.,Delauney, G. and D. Elixmann (2008:
paper presented at the International Telecommunications Society 17th Biennial Conference, Montreal, Canada. 22 See Liebenau, J.,Atkinson, R.,Kärrberg, P.,Castro, D. and S. Ezell:(
Impacts of Internet connectivity on irm productivity; Motu Working Paper 09-15; Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, October;
and Internet Policy (TPRC), Arlington, Virginia, September 23-25; 2005; revised January 17, 2006.25 Howell, B. and A. Grimes (2010:
Countries with large Internet economies, including the United states, Japan and Germany, are receiving large benefits from broadband.
These are all, not coincidentally, countries with substantial competition between the fixed telecommunications network and cable.
and telecommunications for years) does not do conspicuously well. It may well be that these differences in broadband surplus are primarily a function of the level of competition.
say, 10 Mbps) and ultra-fast broadband at speeds of 30 Mbps or greater. A notable exception is a study that Analysys Mason
construction and telecoms. 30 Intermediate results were presented at a public workshop in Brussels in February 2012.
Household Demand for Broadband Internet Service; Final report to the Broadband. gov Task force, Federal Communications Commission;
notably including the fixed telecommunications network, but also including cable television, as well as fixed and mobile wireless services.
For the fixed telecommunications network, there are significant uncertainties as to the quality of currently available data.
For wireless broadband, the footprint of LTE and LTE-Advanced can be expected to be at least as broad in 2020 as that of 2g and 3g networks today.
suggest that full achievement based solely on fibre-based telecommunications solutions is unlikely without some degree of public policy intervention and/or subsidy.
including 30 Mbps deployment and 100 Mbps adoption, it is necessary to begin with a discussion of capabilities of the broadband technologies that are likely to be suitable for meeting those DAE goals in 2020 (Section 4. 1). This leads into a discussion of the current cost of deploying each of these technologies.
and of ultra-fast broadband at 30 Mbps and 100 Mbps (Section 4. 4). 4. 1 Technologies for fast broadband Some have attempted to limit the discussion of Next Generation Access (NGA
however, modern Hybrid Fibre Coaxial (HFC) cable-based solutions obviously deliver capabilities that are functionally equivalent to telecom fibre-based NGA today.
they are able to deliver 50 Mbps provided the copper sub-loop is shorter than about 400-500 meters.
Alcatel-lucent antwoord op Ontwerpbesluit van de Raad van het BIPT van 20 december 2010 betreffende de Analyse van de Breedbandmarkten 18 Februari. 34 Alternatively,
the typical bandwidth is up to 2. 5 Gbps downstream and up to 1, 25 Gbps upstream.
Many have assumed consequently that FTTC/VDSL is relevant to 30 Mbps DAE objectives, but no more;
which case 100 Mbps should be achievable. 38 Figure 6: Predicted 100 Mbps FTTC/VDSL European household coverage in 2020 Source:
Yardley et al. 2012b). ) 37 See RTR, Consultation input from RTR Gmbh (Austrian Regulatory authority for broadcasting and telecommunications),
input to European commission Consultation on costing methodologies for key wholesale access prices in electronic communications, November 2011.38 See Yardley, M. et al.
which aims to deliver fast broadband internet in the future network-based knowledge economy, with an ambitious target for universal broadband coverage with speeds of at least 30 Mbps for all Europeans by 2020.39 See Chapter 5 for more details. 40 Apart from the very different physical infrastructure,
an HFC cable system is broadly comparable to a GPON fibre system. In the cable system, the customers in a given cable cluster share the available capacity,
The Mobile Communications Role in Next Generation Networks: The Case of Spain, 22nd European Regional ITS Conference, Budapest, 18-21 september 2011.33.
which aims to deliver fast broadband internet in the future network-based knowledge economy, with an ambitious target for universal broadband coverage with speeds of at least 30 Mbps for all Europeans by 2020.42 Steady technological improvements are noteworthy.
The migration to LTE, and then to LTE Advanced, represents a substantial increase in the nominal speed of wireless data transmission,
Typical maximum achievable speeds for various wireless solutions Mobile technology Range of typically achievable maximum downstream bandwidth (Mbit/s) HSPA 2-5 HSPA
State-of-the-art Mobile Internet connectivity and its Impact on e-commerce, presentation to the IMCO Committee of the European parliament, 28 june 2012, WIK and TNO, available at:
or fibre telecommunications lines is heavily dependent on upgrading the existing fixed network, which in turn depends on the coverage footprint. 44 Hätönen, J. 2011):
The Mobile Communications Role in Next Generation Networks: The Case of Spain, op cit. 46 See IDATE (2011), Broadband Coverage in Europe, Final Report, 2011 Survey Data as of 31 december 2010,2011,
at http://ec. europa. eu/information society/digital-agenda/scoreboard/docs/pillar/broadband coverage 2010. pdf. 47 A DSLAM is a network device that is commonly provided by telecommunications operators.
and thus of the cost of achieving the DAE. 4. 2. 2 Coverage of telecoms networks In the Western European EU-15 Member States,
Cable Internet penetration as%of all households 2010 100%80%60%40%20%0%38 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) We have done a detailed analysis of the Liberty
%100%Other cable Remainder of internet-capable network DOCSIS3. 0 Percentage of premises passed 39.4.2.4 The potential for wi reless solutions As noted in Section 4. 1. 3,
It is difficult to assess the fraction of the European population that cannot be covered costeffectively at 30 Mbps with the fixed network.
Since the 100 Mbps target refers only to adoption by 50%of households, we assume that there is no need for mobile to meet this need.
The 100 Mbps users can be located in areas that have higher density. In Australia, where an ultra-fast government-owned National Broadband Network (NBN) is being deployed,
7%of the population is expected to be served by wireless or satellite solutions. The number in Europe might be higher or lower,
and 3g wireless today. 50 This seems to imply that most remote, low density, or hard to reach locations can be served using LTE or LTE Advanced;
) 4. 2. 5 Overall adoption of network technologies Many Member States already have a mix of fixed broadband technologies including telecommunications (copper and in some cases fibre), cable,
and OPEX that would be required to deploy broadband (with 4 Mbps download and 1 Mbps upload speed) to all households in the United states. Underserved areas tend to be mountainous
or remote (see Figure 14). Figure 14: The broadband gap in the United states: incremental CAPEX and OPEX needed to achieve 4 Mbps download
and 1 Mbps upload speed Source: FCC: The Broadband Availability Gap, April 2010. A striking finding is that a disproportionately large fraction of the gap is associated with covering a tiny fraction of the population.
The most expensive 250,000 households, representing just 0. 2%of all households, represent about half of the gap (see Figure 15). 43.
Four fibre-based telecommunications architectures were considered: PMP GPON, P2p Ethernet, P2p GPON, and FTTB P2p DSL. 55 Neither cable television infrastructure nor wireless was considered.
The national territory was segmented then into twenty different areas (geotypes) based on population density. A key driver is the Average Revenue per User (ARPU.
however, for a profitable deployment of FTTH P2p Ethernet covering the full national territory, an average ARPU of € 44 would be required (see Figure 17).
Cost and ARPU p er customer per month for FTTH P2p Ethernet at 70%penetration Source:
(2) P2p Ethernet is Point-to-Point fibre access network with single fibres per home
and Ethernet switches concentrating the customer traffic at the central MPOP (ODF) sites. 3) P2p GPON is Point-to-Point fibre access network as before,
but GPON splitters and OLT at the central MPOP sites, and (4) FTTB P2p DSL is Point-to-Point fibre access network with single fibre per building
The remaining 30%of each cluster is assumed to be served (if at all) by mobile or cable.
This analysis (which is based solely on copper and fibre-based telecommunications, and does not otherwise reflect cable
or mobile) has many implications that are probably relevant not only to Germany, but to most of the Member States.
Full achievement of the three DAE objectives based solely on fibre-based telecommunication technologies without intervention
In any event, upgrading existing digital cable is substantially less expensive than deploying new fibre-based telecommunications networks, thanks to the benefits of sharing existing coaxial cable to multiple customer premises.
The Cisco VNI report (2011) notes that Internet traffic demand contrary to what many have assumed, is becoming more asymmetric over time, not less.
With video growth, Internet traffic is evolving from a relatively steady stream of traffic (characteristic of P2p) to a more dynamic traffic pattern.
With the exception of short-form video and video calling, most forms of Internet video do not have a large upstream component.
Moreover, there are gateways to the PSTN (telephony equipment), gateways to the Internet (IP routers), and servers for providing a range of services. 60 Where there are multiple headends,
and can serve as the home of a 60 Examples are DHCP (Dynamic Host Configuration Protocol), games, web, e-mail (SMTP,
Optical Node 1 Bidirectional amplifier Residential Customer Internet International Gateways ON 2 ON n Fiber Ring HE1 Euro DOCSIS CMTS+Telephony equipment
+Router Connections Secondary IP Backbone Secondary Telephone Backbone Ring Primary Telephony Backbone Connections/Conversions Primary IP Backbone CM NIU Teleph
. modem Telephony Switch Gateway Server Farms NOC Router 52 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) CMTS (Cable Modem Termination System.
A Eurodocsis 2. 0 system can deliver raw downstream bit rates of from 38 Mbps (64-QAM) to 51 Mbps (256-QAM) in an 8 MHZ channel,
and raw upstream bit rates of about 30 Mbps (64-QAM) in a 6. 4 MHZ channel. 64 61 Splitters are bidirectional passive components used to split
more than 200 Mbps through the bonding of four channels, or more than 400 Mbps through the bonding of eight channels;
and Upstream: more than 100 Mbps through the bonding of four channels. Technical progress as to DOCSIS capabilities is,
however, very dynamic. It is therefore to be expected that substantially higher raw bit rates will be available downstream and upstream in the future.
This yields 400 Mbps of usable throughput downstream. Development of CPE capable of 16 channels downstream and 8 channels upstream is already under way.
Virgin Media has announced plans to offer 1. 5 Gbps service to selected customers on a trial basis,
In this section, we deal specifically with overall capacity upgradability within the existing frequency plan. 65 Moreover, DOCSIS 3. 0 supports Internet Protocol Version 6 (IPV6.
/67 Kabel Deutschland (KDG) recently showed in a field test that an 862 MHZ upgraded cable network is able to broadcast download speeds of up to 4. 7 Gbps. See KDG Press release May 31, 2012;
to a fully Internet-capable state-of-the-art Eurodocsis 3. 0 cable network, the first of which has long since been completed substantially throughout Europe:
A number of Liberty Global networks, for example, are constructed using fibre rings that contain redundant fibre. Unit costs of upgrading these networks can be very low.
(and willingness to pay) in all likelihood will remain well below the 100 Mbps access speed threshold addressed in the DAE,
using DOCSIS 3. 0 cable at speeds of 6, 12 or 30 Mbps, and using wireless (LTE at 2. 6 GHZ).
VIII IX X Population density FTTH-GPON FTTC-VDSL DOCSIS 6/12/30 Mbps LTE-2. 6 GHZ EUR 61.
If, however, one assumes that there is a requirement for guaranteed bandwidth of 10 Mbps, then the fixed solutions are greatly superior to wireless.
Annualized cost (Present Value) of CAPEX per user (€) with a requirement for a guaranteed 10 Mbps Source:
It is worth noting once again that Cisco VNI data strongly suggest that average data consumption per household during the busy hour will be less than 2 Mbps, even in 2020.
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X Population density FTTH-GPON FTTC-VDSL DOCSIS 6/12/30 Mbps LTE
Theoretical (advertised) download speed, with Internet centres in rural areas. Base: Theoretical (advertised) download speed. Advanced:
Actual (guaranteed) download speed. Maximum: Actual (guaranteed) download and upload speed. In all scenarios except the first minimum scenario, coverage to the household is assumed to be required.
These differing scenarios each implied different feasible solutions. For example, the Advanced scenario could be met with ADSL2, LTE, VDSL2, Eurodocsis 3. 0, FTTB,
and FTTH, while the Maximum scenario could be satisfied only with pure fibre solutions. The EIB analysis considers the incremental cost in each Member State of achieving each of the three DAE objectives under each of the four scenarios.
because cable is felt to be incapable (at present, at least) of providing 30 Mbps, to say nothing of 100 Mbps, of usable symmetric capacity. 77 In our view,
the use of scenarios is appropriate, but it is necessary to temper this use with reasonable expectations as to what European consumers want and need.
whether Europeans would accept the use of Internet centres (as envisioned in the Minimum scenario),
30 Mbps of guaranteed symmetric bandwidth seems to be enormously in excess of the average busy hour of residential consumers, even in 2020 and well beyond. 78 Thus,
The Basic scenario, where 30 Mbps and 100 Mbps can be interpreted as advertised speeds, are probably somewhat below the level of realistic consumer expectations in 2020,
the Cisco VNI 2011 analysis finds that Internet data traffic is become less symmetric over time, not more,
With video growth, Internet traffic is evolving from a relatively steady stream of traffic (characteristic of P2p) to a more dynamic traffic pattern.
With the exception of short-form video and video calling, most forms of Internet video do not have a large upstream component.
cable and mobile all compete, versus 1+competition, where only fixed and mobile compete. Facilities-based inter-modal competition,
even if limited to discrete geographic areas, may have the tendency to constrain prices to reasonable levels across much larger geographic areas.
NGA deployment in Japan, for instance, has come at the expense of a re-monopolisation of the last mile of the Key Findings 69. telecommunications network. 79 Deployment of a fibre-based National Broadband Network
and seems out of step with the overall European Regulatory Framework. 79 Both NTT East
meaning internet accessed over legacy telephone copper and TV cable networks. 70 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) The Commission,
Already today, in some places, 4g offers those speeds if not higher. I also want at least half of Europeans to have ultra-fast access at over 100 Megabits by 2020:
can be very cost-effective in delivering higher download capacity. 82 7. 2 Societal welfare benefits from facilities-based competition The values of competition are recognised well in the economic literature,
infrastructure-based competition 83 Facilities-based competition from cable is not sufficient to enable lifting of regulation from telecommunications incumbents,
it can help to correct any possible errors that might be made in regulatory price setting. 81 Neelie Kroes Vice-president of the European commission responsible for the Digital Agenda Giving Europe a Mobile Broadband Boost, 2012 Mobile
Deutsche telekom writes: Cable network operators are no longer small players. They acquire every second new customer.
http://blogs. telekom. com/2012/08/16/telekom-bringt-wettbewerb-in-monopolstrukturen/./Auch auf diesem Markt sind die Kabelnetzbetreiber keine kleinen Spieler mehr:
cable and mobile all compete, versus 1+competition, where only fixed and mobile compete. Facilities-based intermodal competition,
even if limited to discrete geographic areas, may have the tendency to constrain prices to reasonable levels across much larger geographic areas.
89 Feijoo and Barroso, op cit. Note that the figure shows a maximum speed of 30 Mbps
today, however, cable broadband offers of 100 Mbps or more are commonplace in many European countries. 73.74 Rethinking the Digital Agenda for Europe (DAE) REFERENCES Cable Europe Labs (2009:
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Impacts of Internet connectivity on irm productivity; Motu Working Paper 09-15; Motu Economic and Public Policy Research, October;
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