since been held in the US (Roco and Bainbridge, 2002). In Europe the concept of NBIC was studied by A high-Level Expert Group
Roco, M C and W s Bainbridge, 2002. Converging technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnollogy Information technology and Cognitive science.
In this changed context, many new products fail to‘cross the chasm'between the adoption segmeent that include innovators and some early adopteer on the one hand and the mass market on the other (Moore, 2002;
Severra scholars have focused on the fact that there are still only a few companies that effectively involve the customer or user in the innovation process (Alam, 2002;
References Alam, I 2002. An exploratory investigation of user involvement in new service development. Journal of the Academy of Marketiin Sciences, 30 (3), 250 261.
Moore, G A 2002. Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling Technology Products to Mainstream Customers.
and Innovation (CTI) on the innovation performance of the supported firms based on a matched-pairs analysis of 199 firms supported by the CTI in the period 2000 2002.
and the corresponding control groups for the period 2002 2004. Matching methods based on direct comparisons of participating
Czarnitzki and Fier, 2002 (for Germany; Pointner and Rammer, 2005 (for Austria; Görg and Strobl, 2007 (for Ireland.
we identified the subsidized firms in the period 2000 2002 from the CTI database. We collected innovation data for the promoted firms similla to those already existing for a sample of innovating firms of The swiss Innovation Survey 2002 (Arvanitis et al.
2004). ) We estimated the propensity scores with respect to the likelihood of receiving a CTI subsidy. We then applied four different matching methods
For the period 2002 2004 we found that (with one exception), for all six innovation measures and for all four matching methods applied,
Luarent Donzé has been an associate professor at the Univerrsit of Fribourg, Switzerland since 2002. Before this appoinntmen he was a senior researcher at the KOF Swiss Economic Institute at the ETH Zurich.
Jaffe, 2002; Arvanitis and Keilbach, 2002. In this study we apply matching methods to evaluate the impact of R&d subsidies on the innovatiio performance of subsidized firms.
A major advanntag of the matching methods over the regression approach is that the matching is nonparametric.
in order to avoid ex ante selection bias would be to undertake an evaluation by awarding grants (subsidies) randooml within a pool of actors who are judged suitabbl for funding (Jaffe, 2002).
2002), Switzerland Programme of promoting use of Computer Integrated Manufacturing Technologies (CIMT)( CIM Programme, 1990 1996) 463 Selection correction:
+for firms with less than 200 employees+for firms adopting CIMT for first time Donzé (2002), Switzerland Programme of promoting use of CIMT (CIM Programme, 1990 1996) 463 Matched-pair analysis (several alternative methods) Change in CIMT intensity (1990 1996):+
+for firms with less than 200 employees+for firms adopting CIMT for first time Lach (2002), Israel R&d grants from Office of Chief Scientist at Ministry of Industry and Trade (1990 1995) 325 Difference
+for small firms no effect for large firms Czarnitzki and Fier (2002), Germany Public innovation subsidies in German service sector 210 Matched-pairs analysis (nearest
(1999 2002) 828 Combination of matching approach and difference-indiffeerenc estimator R&d spending; R&d spending per employee:
a list of the firm projects that were subsidized by the CTI in the period 2000 2002;
additional information on the firms whose projeect were subsidized that was collected through a survey of the subsidized firms based on a shortenne version of the questionnaire used in The swiss Innovation Survey 2002;
and the data for firms that reported the introduction of innovations in the period 2000 2002 in The swiss Innovation Survey 2002.
The CTI database contained information on 634 subsiddize R&d projects that were finished between 1 january 2000 and 31 december 2002.
A further 14 subsidized firms were identiffie among the participants of The swiss Innovation Survey 2002.
The 996 firms that participated in The swiss Innovattio Survey 2002 and reported the introduction of innovations in the period 2000 2002 built the pool of non-subsidized firms from
which a control group was constructed (KOF panel database). For the firms that finished their projects subsidiize by the CTI during the first half of the period 2000 2002,
i e. until the middle of 2001, we reckon that they would still have had one -and-a-half years until the end of the reference period to realize some impact of these projects on their innovation performmanc (e g. introduce new products);
For the firms that compleete their subsidized R&d during the second half of the reference period, particularly in the year 2002, it is questionable,
whether or not they would have had enough time until the end of 2002 to realize any additional innovation gains. 53%of projects were finished by the middle of 2001,78%by the end of 2001.
it is possible that only part of the impact could be realized before the end of 2002.
Patterns of CTI promotion in period 2000 2002 As already mentioned, in the period 2000 2002 634 R&d projects were supported by the CTI.
Table 2 shows the scientific fields in which these projects were located and the amount of the subsidies granted by scientific field.
we need a pool of Table 2. Subsidized projects and volume of subsidy by scientific field 2000 2002 Scientific field Number of projects Percentage CTI subsidy (in CHF (Swiss francs)) Percentage CTI
CTI database, authors'calculations Table 3. Subsidized enterprises by scientific field 2000 2002 Scientific field Number of firms Percentage Construction technology 11 5. 5
In a sixth and last step we calculated a subsidy quotient for every subsidized firm by dividing the amount of the granted subsidy by the total R&d expendiiture in the period 2000 2002.
Conclusion Based on a matched-pairs analysis of 199 firms supporrte by the CTI in the period 2000 2002 and a control group of 996 firms that were supported not by the CTI,
research project subsidized by CTI in period 2000 2002, yes/no) Firm characteristics Test level 5%Firm characteristics Test level 5%Firm size:
Results with respect to magnitude of subsidy quotient for 2000 2002, calculated using‘nearest neighbour'method Measures of innovation performance Subsidized firms:
Results with respect to magnitude of subsidy quotient (2000 2002) using‘calliper'method Measures of innovation performance Subsidized firms:
Appendix (continued) Table A. 9. Results with respect to magnitude of subsidy quotient (2000 2002) using‘kernel'method Measures of innovation performance Subsidized firms:
Results with respect to magnitude of subsidy quotient (2000 2002) using‘local linear regression'method Measures of innovation performance Subsidized firms:
and R&d expenditures strictly referring to the period 2000 2002 that unfortunately cannot be quantified and corrected.
Arvanitis, S and M Keilbach 2002. Evaluation methodologies, econometric models: microeconometric models. In RTD Evaluatiio Tool Box:
Arvanitis, S, H Hollenstein and S Lenz 2002. The effectiveness of government promotion of advanced manufacturing technologiie (AMT:
Innovationsakttivitäte in der Schweizer Wirtschaft-Eine Analyse der Ergebnisse der Innovationserhebung 2002. Bern: Staatssekretarria für Wirtschaft.
Czarnitzki, D and A Fier 2002. Do innovation subsidies crowd out private investment? Evidence from the German service sector, ZEW Discussion paper No. 02-04, Mannheim, Germany:
Donzé, L 2002. Matched-pair analysis based on business survey data to evaluate the policy of supporting the adoption of advannce manufacturing technologies by Swiss firms, KOF Working Paper No. 65, July 2002.
Zurich: KOF. European commission 2008. Annual innovation policy trends and appraisal report: Switzerland 2007 2008 European trend chart on innovation.
Jaffe, A b 2002. Building programme evaluation into the design of public research-support programmes. Oxford Review of Econoomi Policy, 18 (1), 22 34.
Lach, S 2002. Do R&d subsidies stimulate or displace private R&d? Journal of International Business Studies, 50 (4), 369 390.
there is the issue of the unpredictability of the future it is neither possible nor feasible to say how the future will be (De Geus 2002.
It takes into account the methodological structures proposed by Horton (1999) and Conway and Voros (2002),
as well as practical orientattion contained in the Handbook of Knowledge society Foresight (Miles et al. 2002) and in Godet (2001).
Conway, M. and Voros, J. 2002)‘ Implementing organisational foresight: a case study in learning from the future',paper presented at International Conference Probing the Future:
Developing Organisational Foresight in the Knowledge Economy, held Glasgow, Scotland, 11 3 july 2002. Cuhls, K. and Grupp, H. 2001)‘ Alemanha:
De Geus, A. 2002) Tools for Foresight: Planning for the Unpredictable Future. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business Press.
Miles, I.,Keenan, M. and Kaivo-Oja, J. 2002) Handbook of Knowledge society Foresight. Manchester: Prest.
Table 3. Allocations for S&t by Central Government in main S&t programs (in million RMB) Item 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
the Case 973 Program (in million RMB) Item 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Total 589 686 800 897 983
while the sectoral innovation system emphasizes the innovation of a particulla set of products (Malerba 2002).
The technological innovation system uses a specific knowledge field to draw the boundary of an innovation system (Carlsson et al. 2002;
National institutioons from the perspective of Malerba (2002), should match the sectoral innovation system within the national borders.
2002), within a particular knowledge field the actors, including the buyers and sellers, of a dynamic network interact in a specific economic or industrial arena
Carlsson, B.,Jacobsson, S.,Holme'N m. and Rickne, A. 2002)‘ Innovation systems: Analytical and methodological issues',Research policy, 31: 233 45.
Malerba, F. 2002)‘ Sectoral systems of innovation and productioon'Research policy, 31: 247 64..(2004)‘ Sectoral systems of innovation:
ICSU has been using foresight practices for some time to determine research priorities (Teixeira et al. 2002) and to develop mobilising visions of the orientation of whole research fields (ICSU 2010).
In 2002 it commissioned a meta-analysis of the results of several existing national foresight exercises with the aim of identifying future priority areas for international science cooperation (Teixera et al. 2002.
More recently, ICSU has started to use foresight approaches in some of its thematic work. For example, it has been carrying out a visioning exercise On earth systems research with a view to identifying a single strategic framework for global environmental change research and its policy relevance (ICSU 2010.
The 2002 foresight exercise had explicitly set out to identify priority areas of science for ICSU to focus upon in its new strategic plan (ICSU 2006.
This was taken the approach in 2002 but had resulted in some problems absorbing the results into the ICSU strategic plan.
Teixeira, A.,Martin, B. and von Tunzelmann, N. 2002)‘ Identification of Key Emerging Issues in Science and Society:
Geels, F. W. 2002)‘ Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: A multilevel perspective and a case study',Research policy, 31: 1257 74..(
systemic and anticipatory vision building approach that supports the present-day decision-making (European commission 2002). In this paper we explore the possible role of foresight in transnational research programming
2002)‘ Thinking, debating and shaping the future: Foresight for Europe'.'Final Report of the High level Expert Group for the European commission, 24 april 2002.
Brussels: European commission..(2008)‘ Summary of the Impact assessment',Commission Staff Working Document. Accompanying document to the Towards Joint Programming.
Van dijk 2002) and nowadays audiovisual presentations and computer simulations. The outcome of a political discourse is partly dependent on the contents and shape of the communicative expressions of the participants their cognition in wide sense as well as the power relationships between the participants (Chilton 2004;
Van dijk 2002. Issue description and the early warning signals around them are communicative expressions that will eventually have to find their place in this policy discourse
Van dijk, T. A. 2002)‘ Political discourse and political cognitioon'In: Chilton, P. and Scha ffner, C. eds) Politics as Text and Talk:
For example, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural affairs (DEFRA) defined horizon scanning in 2002 as:..the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning'and, continuing,
They were even part of a Delphi survey (Cuhls et al. 2002; Blind et al. 2001) to highlight topics that should be assessed in science and technology.
Office for Official Publications of the EU. Cuhls, K.,Blind, K. and Grupp, H. 2002) Innovations for our Future.
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