thus providing a more evidence-based approach to research and innovation policy (Georghiou 2007). The main focus of this activity has been to address new and emerging technological areas that may have an impact on social, economic,
even though economic models completely failed to forecast the financial crisis of 2007 8, even in the shortest term.
Georghiou, L. 2007)‘ Future of foresighting for economic development',UNIDO, Vienna.<<http://www. unido. org/foresight/rwp/dokums pres/tf plenary georghiou 201. pdf>accessed 8 september 2011.
and Unruh 2007) that reflect, for instance, the mandate of the client or sponsor, or the expected uses of results.
2007) argue that the collection of weak signals tends to produce relatively unstructured pools of signals
But one can also argue that the very remit of horizon scanning is to challenge the mindsets of esteemed incumbents whose perceptions may reflect well-established evidence rather than surprising interpreetation of incipient developments (Taleb 2007.
Here, we argue that horizon scanning should seek to engage diverse stakeholders (Ko nno la et al. 2007.
and assessing observations as well as in synthesizing these inputs (Ko nno la et al. 2007; Salo et al. 2009) in preparation for subsequent face-to-face stakeholder workshops. 2. 4 Building ground for crosscutting policy coordination At best,
JRC-IPTS proposed that a robust portfolio modelling (RPM) screening process (Ko nno la et al. 2007;
the expert assessments were synthesized with the RPM tool (Liesio et al. 2007; Ko nno la et al. 2007.
In the RPM framework, the criterion-specific scores v j i for each issue j=1,,
T. Ko nno la et al. crowds'(Duboff 2007) which suggests that the engagement of a large number of scanners helps draw attention to phenommen that qualify as indicators of emerging policy issues.
Duboff, R. S. 2007)‘ The wisdom of (expert) crowds',Harvard Business Review, 85:28. European communities (2009)‘ The world in 2025.
Ko nno la, T. and Unruh, G. C. 2007)‘ Really changing the course: The limitations of environmental management systems for innovation',Journal of Business strategy and the Environment, 16: 525 37.
Ko nno la, T.,Brummer, V. and Salo, A. 2007)‘ Diversity in foresight: Insights from the fostering of innovation ideas',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 74: 608 26.230.
A. 2007)‘ Preference pogramming for robust portfolio modeling and project selection',European Journal of Operational Research, 181: 1488 505.
2011)‘ Horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2011',Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 26:10 6. Taleb, N. N. 2007) The Black swan:
and was taken up in Germany by popular trend searchers like Horx (2007) who defines them as the:..
Horx, M. 2007)‘ Megatrends'.<'<http://www. horx. com/Reden/Macht-der-Megatrends. aspx>accessed 15 july 2011 (authors'own translation.
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