12 oct 2009. To cite this article: Frank Glod, Carlo Duprel & Michael Keenan (2009) Foresight for science and technology priority setting in a small country:
the case of Luxembourg, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 933-951, DOI: 10.1080/09537320903262298 To link to this article:
frank. glod@fnr. lu ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2009 Taylor & francis DOI:
12 oct 2009. To cite this article: K. Matthias Weber, Klaus Kubeczko, Alexander Kaufmann & Barbara Grunewald (2009) Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis:
experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 953-969, DOI:
matthias. weber@ait. ac. at ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2009 Taylor & francis DOI:
Other kickoff projects as well as further initiatives are planned to be launched from 2009 onwards. In fact, in response to the economic crisis in early 2009, the City of Vienna decided to spend an additional¤60 million on research infrastructures and cutting-edge research as part of a broader economic and employment stimulus package.
Two of the remaining three kickoff projects (promottio of junior groups and top locations for cutting-edge research) will be financed from this additional source of funding.
Its implementation has been accelerated by the economic crisis in 2008/2009 that has led to an increase in funding for RTI as part of city's economic
12 oct 2009. To cite this article: Stefanie Jenssen (2009) Foresight and governance: how good can it get?
The case of stakeholder image construction in a municipal vision project, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 971-986, DOI:
stefanie. jenssen@tik. uio. no ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2009 Taylor & francis DOI:
According to The United nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP 2009) good governance has eight major characteristics.
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12 oct 2009. To cite this article: Ahti Salo, Ville Brummer & Totti Könnölä (2009) Axes of balance in foresight reflections from Finnsight 2015, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 987-1001, DOI:
10.1080/09537320903262447 To link to this article: http://dx. doi. org/10.1080/09537320903262447 PLEASE SCROLL DOWN FOR ARTICLE Taylor & francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the Content) contained in the publications on our platform.
ahti. salo@tkk. fi ISSN 0953-7325 print/ISSN 1465-3990 online 2009 Taylor & francis DOI:
By June 2009, six strategic centres have started their operations (i e. energy and environment; metal products and mechanical engineering;
We therefore reflect on Finnsight along four design attributes (see also Könnölä et al. 2009) that are concerned with (1) instrumental vs informative use of foresight results;(
and Innovation policy Council as of January 2009) is to assist the Government and its ministries by addressing, for instance,
Nordic Innovation Centre. http://www. nordicinnovation. net/img/nordic foresight forum final report. pdf (accessed 20 september 2009. Ansoff, I. 1975.
and R. Koivisto. 2009. Management of foresight portfolio: analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organization. Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21, no. 3: 381 405.
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a pressing and long-term challenge, Futures 41 (2009) 67 70.8 I. Miles, From futures to foresight, in:
I. Miles, Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision making, Technology analysis & Strategic management 21 (2009) 915 916.13 T. Ko nno la, J. Smith, A. Eerola, Introduction
, Future-oriented technology analysis impacts and implications for policy and decision making, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (2009) 1135 1137.14 I. Nonaka, H. Takeuchi, The Knowledge-creating Company, Oxford university Press, Oxford
+31 053 489 3353/3350.5 PRIME=Policies for Research and Innovation in the Move towards the European research area, European Network of Excellence (2004 2009;
http://www. prime-noe. org/index. php (accessed November 7, 2009. Contents lists available at Sciencedirect Futures journal homepage:
and 12th 2009 in the framework of the ANR-OGM COBINA research project. 10 Decision announced by Ilse Aigner, federal ministry for agriculture, on April 14th 2009.
reflections from the Finnish food and drink industry, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1 2)( 2009) 70 88.27 T. Ko nno la, V
The 2008 FTA International Seville Conference, 2009, available at: http://forera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2008/intro. html. 2009-11-10). 2 R. Smits, S. Kuhlmann, The Rise of systemic instruments
in innovation policy, International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy 1 (1)( 2004) 4 32.3 T. Ko nno la, G. C. Unruh, J. Carrillo-Hermosilla
analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.8 M. Cariola, R. Secondo, Evolution in the rationales of foresight
http://www. vtt. fi/inf/pdf/publications/2007/P653. pdf (2009-11-10). 18 Nordic H2 Energy Foresight for the Nordic Council
http://www. h2foresight. info (2009-11-10). 19 The EU Integrated Project IRRIIS Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems, available at:
lang=2&oiid=8661&pid=572 (2009-11-10). 20 Finnish Foresight Forum (in Finnish), available at:
www. rpm. tkk. fi/explorer/html/index ennakointifoorumi. html (2009-11-10). 21 FISTERA: Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area, available at:
http://fistera. jrc. ec. europa. eu/(2009-11-10). 22 Future impacts of ICTS on Environmental sustainability Project, available at:
id=1208 (2009-11-10). 23 R. Compan o',C. Pascu, J.-C. Burgelman, M. Rader, R. Saracco, G. Spinelli
Foresight on Information society Technologies in the European research area (FISTERA) Key Findings, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Technical Report EUR-22319-EN, Seville, 2009, available at:
id=1431 (2009-11-10). 24 A. Fujii, Foresight on information society technologies in Europe, in:
id=1919 (2009-11-10). 26 L. Georghiou, Third generation foresight: integrating the socioeconomic dimension, available at http://www. nistep. go. jp/achiev/ftx/eng/mat077e/html/mat077oe. html (2009/11/10), in:
1997 (available at http://www. josephcoates. com/2025 pdf. html (accessed 29/07/2009)).12 D. Loveridge, O. Saritas, Reducing the democratic deficit in institutional foresight programmes:
a case for critical systems thinking in nanotechnology, Technological forecasting and Social Change 76 (9)( 2009) 1208 1221.13 I. Miles, UK Foresight:
. Kivisaari, R. Koivisto, Management of foresight portfolio analysis of modular foresight projects at contract research organisation, Technological Analysis & Strategic management 21 (3)( 2009) 381 405.15 E. Eriksson
, Integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies, Technological forecasting & Social Change 76 (2009) 1163 1176.25 Advisory Group on Nanotechnology, New dimensions for manufacturing:
as well as persistent problems or trends''(http://horizonscanning. defra. gov. uk last visited on March 14, 2009.
Another paper dedicated to a further elaboration of the BPS results is planned by the authors in 2009.
January 30, 2009. 4 N. Damrongchai, P. Satangput, G. Tegart, C. Sripaipan, Future technology analysis for biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific, Science and Public policy 37 (1)( 2010
) 41 50.5 Wikipedia, Futurology, 2009. Available at: http://en. wikipedia. org/wiki/Futurology#Weak signals. 2c the future sign and wild cards (last visited on:
March 14, 2009. 6 J. Smith, Presentation at the Centre for Innovation studies, Thecis Breakfast Edmonton Alberta, January 13th, 2009.7 J. Petersen, Out of the blue How to Anticipate Big Future Surprises, Madison Books, 2000.8
preparing for wild cards in the civil aircraft and asset-management industries, Long Range Planning 42 (1)( 2009) 23 41.
March 14, 2009. 14 R c. Jantz, Technological Discontinuities in the Library: Digital Projects that Illustrate New Opportunities for the Librarian and the Library, in:
March 14, 2009. 15 Social Technologies, Discontinuity: Mobility, 2008. Available at: http://www. socialtechnologies. com/Fileview. aspx?
March 14, 2009. 16 E. Hiltunen, Weak signals, Presentation given at the Finland futures research centre, 2007. Available at: http://www. slideshare. net/whatidiscover/weaksiggnal (last visited on:
March 14, 2009. 17 Y. Nugroho, O. Saritas, Incorporating network perspectives in Foresight: a methodological proposal, Foresight 11 (2009) 6, 21 41.
O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 312
The influence of future-oriented technology analysis: Addressing the Cassandra challenge§Ron Johnston a,,*Cristiano Cagnin b a Australian Centre for Innovation, Australia b European commission, DG Joint research Centre, Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Spain‘‘Cassandra was a daughter of Hecuba
The typical unit of measurement is money (Hanley and Barbier, 2009. The overall intention of CBA is the assessment of projects, planning or programmes.
ranging from 2009 to 2014. Although this timeframe constitutes a short to medium time perspective,
Grunwald (2009, p. 1129) argues in relation to quantitative tools:‘‘‘‘quantitative''is equated often with‘‘objective''.''Subjective questioning of evaluation should be‘‘objectivised''.
only selective knowledge can be gained on social phenomena through quantification due to the fact that the models normally only consider a reduced amount of variables that describe social realities (Grunwald, 2009).
Grunwald, A. 2009),‘Technology assessment: concepts and methods'',Handbook of the Philosophy of Science, Volume 9:
Hanley, N. and Barbier, E. B. 2009), Pricing Nature. Cost-benefit analysis and Environmental policy-Making, Edward Elgar, London.
) As complexity theory itself has developed, Mitchell (2009), so has limited some work in the foresight field, Ringland (2010) and Miller and Poli (2010),
including Prigogine and Stengers (1984), Byrne (1998) Mitchell (2009), Goodwin (1994), Strogatz (2003), and Waldrop (1992),
a difference in the 7th decimal place will determine which of two possible tracks it goes down Mitchell (2009:
Battram (2000) and Swanson and Bhadwal (2009), have considered how complexity-based foresight can be applied to policy making.
Table II adapted from Bhimji (2009)- direction, design, and delivery to explore one example of a complexity-based technique to deal with disruptive events in policy-making Promoting variation.
Adapted from Bhimji (2009) PAGE 300 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 bring the benefits of realising that there are more variations than originally thought of
There are at least three key ideas, Battram (2000) and Swanson and Bhadwal (2009), which can help policy makers to promote variation:
Bhimji, W. 2009), Guidance on the Use of Strategic foresight Analysis for Policy development in Government, UK Government office for Science, London, available at:
Miller, R. and Poli, R. 2010),‘Introduction to a Special issue on anticipatory systems and the philosophical foundations of future studies'',Foresight, Vol. 12 No. 3. Mitchell, M. 2009), Complexity:
Swanson, D. and Bhadwal, S. 2009), Creating Adaptive Policies: A Guide for Policymaking in an Uncertain World, Sage Publications, Ottowa.
In 2008-2009 The Finnish Prime minister's Office coordinated the construction of the government foresight report on climate and energy policy (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
Dunlop, 2009), and Sweden (e g. A°kerman 2011. Backcasting has been applied especially for climate, energy and transport scenarios (see, e g.
industry (50 per cent), heating of buildings (21 per cent), transport (17 per cent) and miscellaneous uses (13 per cent)( Statistics Finland, 2009.
The results of these calculations are presented in the Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009, pp. 160-184.
and approved in the government and by Parliament in October 2009. A year after that, the government commissioned an evaluation on the effectiveness of the preparation process that would comment on the general progress of the process as well as the usability of this kind of foresight work in policy planning.
2. The scenario titles are here in the form that they are presented in Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
Dunlop, I. 2009), Club of Rome activities of Australian members, Club of Rome General assembly, 24 october, Amsterdam.
Prime minister's Office (2009), Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy: Towards a Low-carbon Finland, Prime minister's Office Publication 30/2009, available at:
www. vnk. fi/julkaisukansio/2009/j28-ilmasto-selonteko-j29-klimat-framtidsredogoerelse-j30-climate /pdf/en. pdf (accessed 20 december 2011.
Robinson, J. 1982),‘Energy backcasting: a proposed method of policy analysis'',Energy Policy, Vol. 10 No. 4, pp. 337-44.
Statistics Finland (2009),‘Final energy consumption by sector 2008'',available at: www. stat. fi/til/ehkh/2008/04/ehkh 2008 04 2009-03-24 kuv 017 en. html (accessed 20 december 2011.
2009-2011) has shown that most public agencies in charge of urban and regional planning, as well as private consultants conducting professional work in that field,
2009-2011. Nearly 20 personal interviews were made with planning practitioners and public officials in Spain.
2009 More than 40 local stakeholders participated in the study through eight thematic groups and determined the scenario implications for the city's future development.
References Asociacio'n Plan Estrate'gico de Burgos (2009),‘Estudio de prospectiva territorial para la Ciudad de Burgos, unpublished study'',Asociacio
2009-2011),‘Oportunidad y viabilidad de la prospectiva en el planeamiento urbano y territorial'',Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid, Madrid
and how to effectively deploy resources in front of crime, thereby changing outcomes (Beck, 2009). Predictive policing constitutes the next step in intelligence-led policing (ILP) 16,
while emphasizing the role of analysis in tactical and strategic planning (Beck, 2009). Based on comprehensive computer statistics, technology has allowed the law enforcement community to rapidly identify
) As Beck (2009) explains,‘‘b y bringing all crime and arrest data together by category and neighbourhood,
and relentless follow-up''(Beck, 2009) 17. It is important to bear inmind that, contrary to what some fictional movies may lead one to think (e g. the 2002 movie Minority report,
As explained by Beck (2009: Predictive policing, like any public safety resource or tool, must be used legally and ethically.
2009). ) 13. For a detailed analysis of those trends, uncertainties, scenarios (including its likely triggers),
Beck, C. 2009),‘Predictive policing: what can we learn fromwal-Mart and Amazon about fighting crime in a recession?''
Rannenberg, K.,Royer, D. and Deuker, A. 2009), The Future of Identity in the Information society:
In 2009 he co-edited and published Law and Technology: Looking into the Future Selected Essays.
A potential approach to reduce such misplaced overconfidence is to explicate both the underlying Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 04:52 03 december 2014 Foresight in an unpredictable world 747 assumptions (Rossel 2009)
For a critical historical review of key contributions, see Mirowski (2009. 2. Ontological uncertainty has been defined in several different ways by different authors.
Milian 2009. In its present form, SMS emerged only after 1992 when Nokia introduced the first SMS-capable phone. 4. Leont'ev's activity theory was based on Vygotsky's theories on cultural historical development (Luria and Vygotsky 1992).
Milian, M. 2009. Why text messages are limited to 160 characters. Los angeles times, May 3. http://latimesblogs. latimes. com/technology/2009/05/invented-text-messaging. html Miller, R. 2007.
Mirowski, P. 2009. Why there is (as yet) no such thing as an economics of knowledge. In The Oxford handbook of philosophy of economics, ed. H. Kincaid and D. Ross, 99 156.
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Figure 2 (Loveridge 2009) illustrates a scheme for undertaking the essential learning processes. Elicitation of opinions and combining them is a central feature in FTA.
and O. Saritas Figure 2. Learning scheme (reproduced from Loveridge (2009) by courtesy of Routledge).
Loveridge, D. 2009. Foresight: The art and science of anticipating the future. Newyork: Routledge. M'Pherson, P. K. 1974.
In this context, some scepticism arose in the academic community regarding the reliability of foresight efforts and their soundness and appropriateness for supporting strategic decision-making (Bradley Mackay and Costanzo 2009;
the first regards environmental scanning and the detection of new events and drivers of change (Mendonça and Sapio 2009.
and start-ups) in order to identify the new components of the industry (see, for instance, Mendonça and Sapio 2009).
. and L a. Costanzo. 2009. Introduction. In Handbook of research on strategic foresight, ed. R. Bradley Mackay and L a. Costanzo, 1 12.
and B. Sapio. 2009. Managing foresight in changing organizational settings: Introducing new perspectives and practices. Technology analysis & Strategic management 21, no. 3: 285 9. Miles, R. E,
Könnölä et al. 2012) and alternative options (Bezold et al. 2009; Boden et al. 2010; Cagnin and Könnölä, forthcoming) to support decisionmakking All these are critical to reconcile creativity and rational analysis (Shelton 1997;
and K. Wilkins. 2009. Foresight for smart globalizatiion accelerating & enhancing pro-poor development opportunities.
and different tasks in the innovation network (see Könnölä et al. 2009). It is possible to make a distinction between two roadmapping cultures.
It is based on an idea that roadmaps are like visual narratives describiin the most critical paths of future developments (Phaal and Muller 2009.
Figure 2. Using roadmaps in strategy processes (Ahlqvist 2009. than for system simulation. However, combining roadmapping with system dynamic modelling is definitely a potential path for future methodological development.
During the workshops in 2009, some 30 VTT researchers and management representatives built shared understanding of the field.
The first roadmapping phase traced the big picture of the service landscape from the present moment (2009) until 2025.
and Probert (2004), Lee and Park (2005) and Phaal and Muller (2009). Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 840 T. Ahlqvist et al.
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although the data in 2009 and 2010 were collected not completely by Thomson Reuters at the time of the downloading.
and Rafols 2009) to locate DSSC R&d among the disciplines. This approach uses the Subject Categories assigned to journals bywos.
The Subject Categories are grouped into‘macro-disciplines'based on the degree of co-citation of the Subject Categories in a large sample of articles indexed bywos (Porter and Raflos 2009.
4. 3. Profile innovation actors and activities (Step D) Since 2009, WOS has been providing a funding acknowledgement field as it indexes publications.
The US National science Foundation (NSF) shows forth on 42 of 1691 publications since 2009. The swiss NSF accounts for 35 of some 41 papers with Swiss funding;
Table 1 partitions publication and citation shares of these 11 top institutions for (1) the period extending through 2008 and (2) that since then (2009 2011, with 2011 incomplete.
Since 2009, EPFL has published 21 papers that have received already 10 or more cites; CAS, 12 such papers;
Cites share Cites share Pubs share Pubs share through 2008 2009 onwards through 2008 2009 onwards(%)CAS 6. 0 19.9 19.5 25.3 Swiss Federal Institute of technology (EPFL) 49.3
SCI tallies since 2009 have found China to be dominant with 440 papers including at least one Chinese author.
and steps can be generalisable. 2. See Appendix 1 forwos search term. 3. These science overlay maps have been described elsewhere (Leydesdorff and Rafols 2009;
Porter and Rafols 2009; Rafols and Meyer 2010; Rafols, Porter, and Leydesdorff 2010. The base map used here reflects SCI journal crosscitaatio in 2007,
Gratzel and colleagues continue to lead the field. 5. Table 2 does not include the full updated information through 2009 and 2010.
and I. Rafols. 2009. A global map of science based on the ISI subject categories. Journal of the American Society for Information science and Technology 60, no. 2: 348 62.
and I. Rafols. 2009. Is science becoming more interdisciplinary? Measuring and mapping six research fields over time.
Driving towards Sustainable growth and Quality Jobs''was formulated in 2009 (Executive Office of the President, 2009),
and they are all qualitative (European commission, 2009). In recent years, the development of the internet has broadened the potential of exercises:
and selected 24 priority issues (National Institute of Science and Technology policy, 2009). The results of the preliminary discussion clearly indicated the importance of systematic integration in other words,
European commission (2004), Converging technologies Shaping the Future of European Societies, European commission, Brussels. European commission (2009), Mapping Foresight:
A Strategy for Smart, Sustainable and Inclusive Growth, European commission, Brussels. Executive Office of the President (2009), A Strategy for American Innovation:
National Institute of Science and Technology policy (2009),‘Emerging fields in science and technology for the 4th Science and Technology Basic Plan'',Research Material No. 168, National Institute of Science and Technology policy, Tokyo.
Susskind and Movius, 2009) can already be useful at this stage in that discussions and guiding questions in workshop are framed in terms of needs and interests rather than positions.
Susskind, L. and Movius, H. 2009), Built to Win: Creating A World-Class Negotiating Organization, Harvard Business school Press, Boston, MA.
The Lund Declaration of 2009 1 (the outcome of a conference on‘‘New worlds New Solutions''held under the Swedish Presidency of the EU) crystallised several important aspects related to the mobilisation of scientific,
and the increasing shift towards addressing societal needs was identified in the first report of the European research area Board (European commission DG Research, 2009).
Rationales for the European research area (ERA), Report of the ERA Expert Group, European commission, Brussels. European commission DG Research (2009), Preparing Europe for a New Renaissance.
A Strategic View of the European research area, First Report of the European research area Board 2009, European commission, Brussels. European commission DG Research (2010),‘Strengthening the role of European Technology platforms in addressing Europe
while the mineral resources sector's share of total Russian exports is as high as 80 per cent (Russian Federation, 2009).
2030 (2009), Russian Energy Strategy: 2030, Russian Federation, Moscow. Russian Federation (2009), On the Current State and Utilisation of Mineral resources of the Russian Federation in 2009, State Report, Russian Federation, Moscow.
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A specially designed taxonomy is used for mapping (Popper, 2009. The mapping dimension of EFMN, especially for the science and technology field
Popper, R. 2009),‘Mapping foresight: revealing how Europe and other world regions navigate into the future'',Publications Office of the European union, European commission, Luxembourg, available at:
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