and to develop mobilising visions of the orientation of whole research fields (ICSU 2010). The purpose of its current foresight exercise is to explore the potential development of international science over the next two decades in a changing economic, social, political and environmental context.
There remain a large number of poorer countries where investment in science is negligible (UNESCO 2010.
For example, it has been carrying out a visioning exercise On earth systems research with a view to identifying a single strategic framework for global environmental change research and its policy relevance (ICSU 2010.
but in others, many of the problems faced in 2010 were discussed already widely, e g. environmental concerns.
Phase 1 october 2009 to April 2010: Gather perspectiive on the key drivers influencing international science in the next 20 years (from individuals in ICSU's membership, bodies,
Phase 2 april 2010 to March 2011: Build exploratory scenarios from the key drivers and conduct a broad consultation with the same range of parties identified for the previous phase..
A two-day scenario workshop involving the Task Team was held in April 2010 in order to sharpen the forecasts
and over the course of the months following the April 2010 workshop, the exploratoor scenarios were redrafted several times.
The CSPR played an important role in further sharpening the scenarrio at its September 2010 meeting, after
Notes 1. The German Fraunhofer Gesellschaft (2010) has developed also exploratory scenarios for the future of the European research landscape in 2025.2.
2010) Envisioning Future research Horizons: Scenarios for the European research Landscape 2025. Munich: Fraunhofer Gesellschaft. ICSU. 2006) Strengthening International Science for the Benefit of Society:
2010) Earth System Science for Global sustainability: The Grand challenges. Paris: International council for science..(2011a) ICSU Strategic Plan II, 2012 2017.
2010)‘ UNESCO Science Report 2010: The Current Status of Science around the World'.'Paris: UNESCO.
diffusion and embedding innovatiions such as universities, public and private R&d organizations, companies and various intermediate organizattions and the collective learning processes between these organizations (Smits et al. 2010).
it is important to identify all the elements and linkages in a network (Adner and Kapoor 2010).
as both demand and profits are subject to strong variation (Squicciarini and Asikainen 2010). The fifth systemic bottleneck is split incentives.
It was completed as a strategic process at VTT Technical research Centre of Finland in 2010, with two aims:
in order to improve environmental sustainability (Ahola et al. 2010). The case example consists of a transformation roadmap (see Fig. 4)
R. 2010)‘ Value creation in innovation ecosystems: How the structure of technological interdependennc affects firm performance in new technology generations',Strategic management Journal, 31: 306 33.
Ahola, J.,Ahlqvist, T.,Ermes, M.,Myllyoja, J. and Savola, J. 2010) ICT for Environmental sustainability.
Smits, R.,Kuhlmann, S. and Shapira, P.,eds,(2010) The Theory and Practice of Innovation policy:
Squicciarini, M. and Asikainen, A. 2010)‘ Sectoral innovation performance in the construction sector'.'Final report, task 1. Europe Innova, Innovation Watch.
Seiser (2010) identifies eight tensions in research priority setting from the point-of-view of policy-makers and scientists (see Table 1). A third set of tensions relates to the multi-disciplinary and multilevel complexity of societal challenges.
management and sharing of intellectual property rights (CEC 2010) In the ERA NET scheme a four-step approach is applied4 (Matrix-Rambøll 2009).
Based on Seiser (2010) Drivers of transnational research priority setting from point-of-view of science Drivers of transnational research priority setting from point-of-view of policy-making Bottom-up Top-down More focus on scientific frontier Feeding
Anderson 2010. These include: structuura differences in national programme orientation15 and implementation orientation, 16 diversity of programme funding organisations;
Anderson (2010) also points to the importance of legal and regulatory systems, oversight related to research integrity,
Comprehensive strategic cross-policy/sector partnerships 8 Figure 1. Development phases of international S&t co-operation (Gnamus 2010.
and associated countries 2010 onwards‘Rethink and manage the increasing urban orientation and concentration in Europe in order to create
2005), Anderson (2010), Chioncel and Cuntz (2012), European commission (2011), Seiser (2010) and authors'own expertise. 6. An indicator of the culture of openness may be the past and present openness
2005), Anderson (2010), Chioncel and Cuntz (2012), European commission (2011), Seiser (2010) and the present authors'own expertise. 20.
References Anderson, M. S. 2010)‘ International research collaborations: Anticipating challenges instead of being surprised',in Europa World of Learning 2011, Vol. 1, 61st edn, pp. 14 8. London:
Bruno, N. and Van til, J. 2011)‘ ERAWATCH Country Reports 2010: Belgium'.'Brussels: ERAWATCH Network Technopolis Group, European commission.
2011)‘ Voluntary Guidelines on Framework Conditions for Joint Programming in Research 2010'.'Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European union.
A strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth',COM (2010) 2020 final. Brussels: European commission..(2010c)‘ Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union',COM (2010) 546 final.
Commission..(2011)‘ National open access and preservation policies in Europe',Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Directorate B European research area, Unit B. 6 Ethics and gender.
Seiser, C. 2010)‘ Priority setting for JPIS against all odds: Science versus politics. A front-line report',presentation at the Joint Programming Conference, held Brussels, 18 9 october 2010.<
<www. jointprogramming2010. eu/pdfpresenntation1. 2%20-%20seiser. pptx>accessed 15 march 2012. Smits, R. and Kuhlmann, S. 2004)‘ The rise of systemic instrumeent in innovation policy',International Journal of Foresight and Innovation policy, 1: 4 32.
Van Rij 2010a, 2010b) Horizon scanning may also take place in specific policy domains (Botterhuis et al. 2010.
and researchers (Mendonc¸a et al. 2009) Emerging issues Beyond horizon scanning the concept of emerging issues is used also in the area of risk assessment (Marvin et al. 2009), in the field of environmental issues (Sutherland et al. 2010) and in organisations in their environmental scanning (Morrison 1992).
2010) Discourse and decision-making Political discourse refers to the continuous communicative debate that takes place in the political arena.
It is also crucial to select trusted and reliable twitterers (Pang 2010. Text-mining enables large amounts of textual informatiio to be assessed with specialised software.
which to establiis transparent and pluralistic processes for exploring scienttifi non-knowledge (Bo schen et al. 2010).
Smith et al. 2010; Sutherland et al. 2010; 2011). ) Focusing on specific fields, surveys can deliver additional information on various side aspects related to the core issue.
The use of Twitter could be useful for the identification of signals and issues in multiple ways.
Clustering blog sites presents new challenges for information science (Agarwal et al. 2010) as no tools are yet available.
References Agarwal, N.,Galan, M.,Liub, H. and Subramanyab, S. 2010)‘ Wiscoll: Collective wisdom based blog clustering',Information sciences, 180: 39 61.
Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegeman, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
Time for the EU to meet global challenges',24364 EN, 6/2010. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European commission.
I.,Soentgen, J. and Wehling, P. 2010)‘ Scientific nonknowledge and its political dynamics: The cases of agri-biotechnology and mobile phoning',Science Technology and Human Values, 35: 783 811.
Botterhuis, L.,van der Duin, P.,de Ruijtera, P. and van Wijck, P. 2010)‘ Monitoring the future.
Brohee, S.,Barriot, R. and Moreau, Y. 2010)‘ Biological knowleedg bases using Wikis: combining the flexibility of Wikis with the structure of databases',Bioinformatics, 26: 2210 1. Chilton,
Pang, A s.-K. 2010)‘ Social scanning: Improving futures through Web 2. 0; or, finally a use for Twitter',Futures, 42: 1222 30.
Smith, J.,Cook, A. and Packer, C. 2010)‘ Evaluation criteria to assess the value of identification sources for horizon scanning',International Journal of Technology assessment in Health care, 26: 348 53.
2010)‘ A horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2010',Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 25:1 7. Sutherland, W. J.,Fleishman, E.,Mascia, B.,Pretty
and policy-makers have expressed in exploring alternative and even conflicting interpretations of the future (Kuosa 2010;
In a similar tone, Mo ller (2010) states that:..before something, an idea or object, can be sensed,
Nelson 2010; Weick 1995. Yet the broader significance of this individual sense-making is built collectively,
Some exerccise have sought to scan across a truly comprehensive spectrum (Glenn et al. 2010; Saritas and Smith 2011),
while others have focused on specific fields such as telemedicine (Blackburn et al. 2010), security (Botterhuis et al. 2010), environmental conservation (Sutherland et al. 2011),
Kuosa (2010) notes that the widely used, but somewhat imprecise, concept of weak signals‘seems to be everything
for instance may allow new meanings (Nonaka 1994) to be synthesized through the shared development of crosscutting challennges From a methodological perspective, internet-based tools for continuous idea generation (Graefe et al. 2010), idea management
Boden et al. 2010) which focused on long-term developments and their policy implications on EU policy-making, as a means of preparing for the development of the Europe 2020 strategy and related policy initiatives such as the EC Communication on the Innovation Union.
and phases of foresight exercise‘Facing the future'(Boden et al. 2010). Facing the future: Horizon scanning. 225 developed using a participatory approach.
and decision processes (Boden et al. 2010):.The need to change the uses of essential natural resources by aligning all policy realms towards sustainabillity extending from policy design through implementtatio to evaluation..
The final report (Boden et al. 2010) has been referenced in the Communication on the Innovation Union (SEC 2010),
Blackburn, S.,Cudd, P. and Hawley, M. 2010)‘ A horizon scanning system for identifying new telehealth innovations',Global Telemedicine and ehealth Updates:
Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegeman, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
Time for the EU to meet global challenges',24364 EN, 6/2010. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European commission.
Botterhuis, L.,van der Duin, P.,de Ruijter, P. and van Wijck, P. 2010)‘ Monitoring the future.
Glenn, J. C.,Gordon, T. J. and Florescu, E. 2010) State of the Future, The Millenium Project.
Graefe, A.,Luckner, S. and Weinhardt, C. 2010)‘ Prediction markets for foresight',Futures, 42: 394 404.
Kuosa, T. 2010)‘ Futures signals sense-making framework (FSSF: A start-up tool to analyse and categorise weak signals, wild cards, drivers, trends and other types of informatiion'Futures, 42:42 8. Liesio, J.,Mild, P. and Salo,
Mo ller, K. 2010)‘ Sense-making and agenda construction in emerging business networks How to direct radical innovatiion'Industrial Marketing Management, 39: 361 71.
Nelson, R. 2010)‘ Extending foresight: The case for and nature of foresight 2. 0',Futures, 42: 282 94.
SEC (2010) 1161 Final. Commission Staff Working Document A Rationale for Action, Accompanying the Europe 2020 Flagship Initiative Innovation Union COM (2010) pages 9 and 89,
<http://ec. europa. eu/research/innovation-union/pdf/rationale en. pdf#view=fit&pagemode=none>,accessed 16 september 2011.
Boden et al. 2010: 24) The challenges to developing countries are also becoming global. Different publications or internal papers can be discusssed
Megatrends are used also as a part of the evaluation in market studies and analysis (Frost and Sullivan, 2010.
The new version of the German‘hightech strategy'1 (Bundesministerium fu r Bildung und Forschung 2010) has defined needs-oriented fields (Bedarfsfelder in German) and key technologies as a frame
With a total budget of E1. 65 billion in 2010, Fraunhofer is the largest contract research organisation in Europe.
However, dedicated internal funding for each topic was not inherent in the process. 3. 3 Rationale for a new 2010 future-oriented process (demand-driven) The rationale of the Fraunhofer approach started with the assumption that there are obviously science
The aim of the 2010 process was that, ultimately, each future topic would be promoted and developed by at least one dedicated (and centrally funded) R&d project of significant size.
That means‘real'prototypes or results developed in a collaborative manner are expected from the projects Section 4 explains this process in more detail. 4. Methodology of the 2010 process 4. 1 The concept of the 2010 future-oriented
Fraunhofer future markets. 243 The authors of this paper were involved in the concept and practical application of the 2010 Fraunhofer futureorieente process.
Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegemann, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
2010)‘ Ideen. Innovation. Wachstum. Hightech-Strategie 2020 fu r Deutschland'.'Bonn/Berlin: Bundesministerium fu r Bildung und Forschung,<http://www. hightech-strategie. de/de/81. php>accessed 20 july 2011.
2010) World's Top Global Mega Trends to 2020 and Implications to Business, Society and Cultures.<
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