Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'Michael Keenan1,,*Paul Cutler2, 3, John Marks4, Richard Meylan2, 5, Carthage Smith2 and Emilia Koivisto2, 6 1directorate for Science, Technology and Industry, OECD,
and Honorary Research fellow, Manchester Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9pl, UK 2international Council for Science, 5 rue Auguste Vacquerie
Whilst several countries such as Brazil, China and India are making rapid progress (Royal Society 2011
Phase 2 april 2010 to March 2011: Build exploratory scenarios from the key drivers and conduct a broad consultation with the same range of parties identified for the previous phase..
Phase 3 march 2011 to February 2012: Use the key drivers and exploratory scenarios to develop and validate a visionary‘success scenario'of where ICSU should be Going in the process,
The exercise and its results were debated extensively at ICSU's General assembly in September 2011, a gathering of the ICSU‘family'of member organisations that occurs every three years.
and from the EC-funded iknow project dedicated to the collection and analysis of wild cards and weak signals (iknow 2011).
Science Forum in Budapest in November 2011) the explorrator scenarios were picked quickly up and featured in an article in Nature (Macilwain 2011).
This can be taken as a strong signal of the likely interest of the science policy community in the scenarios. 4. 2 Lessons in conducting international foresight Reflecting on the approach taken in the ICSU foresight,
For example, experiences with international foresight using scenarios have been described by Cagnin and Ko nno la (2011) for the domain of intelligent and sustainable manufacturing,
Cagnin, C. and Ko nno la, T. 2011)‘ The challenge of global foresight: lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems,
'paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, held Seville, Spain, 12 may 2011.
ICSU Strategic Plan 2006 2011. Paris: International council for science..(2010) Earth System Science for Global sustainability: The Grand challenges.
2011)‘ iknow ERA Toolkit: Applications of Wild Cards and Weak signals to the Grand challenges and Thematic Priorities of the European research area'.
Macilwain, C. 2011)‘ Science's attitudes must reflect a world in crisis',Nature, 479: 447,24 November 2011.
2011) Knowledge, Networks and Nations: Global Scientific Collaboration in the 21st century. London: Royal Society. Schwartz, P. 1998) The Art of the Long View:
2011) identified two challenges:.vertical co-ordination. horizontal co-ordination We elaborate on this work
2011) consider experiences from vertical co-ordination between local, regional and (international levels providing significant insights into the challennge of managing multilayered research and innovation systems.
2011) note that successful research and innovation processes can be facilitated by horizontal co-ordination between research and other policy areas (such as competition, regional, financial, employment and education policies).
Such differences are caused by the dynamics of evolutionary and systemic processes with different phases of competing technological alternatives and emerging dominant designs (Ko nno la et al. 2011.
strengthened global position in Europe'(Urban Europe, 2011) Determine specific research needs and roadmaps, short-and long-term policy measures,
and enables transitions between different levels of abstraction by way of problem structuring and synthesis (Ko nno la et al. 2011).
or modules can be enacted relatively independently from the other sub-processes (Ko nno la et al, 2011).
EU Member States have approved a first version of evolving and voluntary framewoor conditions for joint programming (ERAC-GPC 2011),
2005), Anderson (2010), Chioncel and Cuntz (2012), European commission (2011), Seiser (2010) and authors'own expertise. 6. An indicator of the culture of openness may be the past and present openness
External evaluation of the EIT (External Evaluation 2011. 15. Optimat et al. 2005) defines three types of dominant programme orientation strategies for national research systems in Europe:
the responsible governments focus on the quality of scientific research (Bruno and Van til 2011). Embedding foresight in transnational research programming. 205 19.
2005), Anderson (2010), Chioncel and Cuntz (2012), European commission (2011), Seiser (2010) and the present authors'own expertise. 20.
Case description based on Urban Europe (2011. 24. The case description is based on Brummer et al. 2008).
Case description based on Urban Europe (2011. The first experiences with practical implementation followiin this report may look somewhat different than described in this report.
Anticipating challenges instead of being surprised',in Europa World of Learning 2011, Vol. 1, 61st edn, pp. 14 8. London:
Bruno, N. and Van til, J. 2011)‘ ERAWATCH Country Reports 2010: Belgium'.'Brussels: ERAWATCH Network Technopolis Group, European commission.
2011)‘ Voluntary Guidelines on Framework Conditions for Joint Programming in Research 2010'.'Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European union.
2011)‘ National open access and preservation policies in Europe',Directorate-General for Research and Innovation, Directorate B European research area, Unit B. 6 Ethics and gender.
2011) External Evaluation of the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (May 2011), Framework Contract on evaluation and related services (EAC 03/06), Final report on evaluation.<
<http://ec. europa. eu/dgs/education culture/evalreports/education/2011/eitreport en. pdf>accessed 15 march 2012. Gnamus, A. 2009) Comparative Report on S&t Cooperation of the ERA Countries with Brazil, India and Russia, JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, EUR 25022 EN.<
Ko nno la, T.,Salo, A. and Brummer, V. 2011)‘ Foresight for European coordination: Developing national priorities for the forest-based sector technology platform',International Journal of Technology management, 54: 438 59.
2011)‘ Report for EC assessment',Urban Europe Joint Programming Initiative.<<http://www. era. gv. at/attach/Urban-Report ecassessment 201104 final. pdf>accessed 15 march 2012.
or social signals (Uskali 2005) Wild cards Wild cards are events with a surprising character, a low probability and a high impact (Van Rij 2011).
or prepared for (Saritas and Smith 2011). Wild cards represent the occurrence of a singular (historically original), sudden (abrupt,
2011). ) Focusing on specific fields, surveys can deliver additional information on various side aspects related to the core issue.
Mandavilli 2011) The blogosphere in general is expanding at an unprecedennte speed. With a better understanding of the blogosphher it would be possible to develop tools to use collective wisdom to scan future-related signals and emerging issues.
See<http://www. gapminder. org/>accessed 21 december 2011. References Agarwal, N.,Galan, M.,Liub, H. and Subramanyab, S. 2010)‘ Wiscoll:
. html>accessed 30 september 2011. Czaplicka-Kolarz, K.,Stanczyk, K. and Kapusta, K. 2009)‘ Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector developmeen in Poland till 2030.
Freund, F. 2011)‘ Pre-earthquake signals: Underlying physical processes',Journal of Asian Earth sciences, 41: 383 400.
<http://www. unido. org/foresight/rwp/dokums pres/tf plenary georghiou 201. pdf>accessed 8 september 2011. Hiltunen, E. 2008a)‘ The future sign and its three dimensions',Futures, 40: 247 60..(
Mandavilli, A. 2011)‘ Trial by Twitter',Nature, 469/7330: 286 7. Marvin, H. J. P.,Kleter, G. A.,Frewer, L j.,Cope, S. et al.
Saritas, O. and Smith, J. E. 2011)‘ The Big Picture: Trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals',Futures, 43: 292 312.
, J. and Rudd, M. 2011)‘ Methods for collaboratively identifying research priorities and emerging issues in science and policy',Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2: 238 47.
futures. 1. Introduction In future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), the systematti exploration of divergent views on future developments has tended to receive less attention than approaches that foster consensus seeking (Ko nno la et al. 2011;
Georghiou and Cassingena Harper 2011. At present, however, various forms of horizon scanning are gaining in popularity,
Rossel 2011; Saritas and Smith 2011. While the intellectual origins of‘horizon scanning'can be traced to the celebrated work by Ansoff (1975) on the recognition of weak signals,
the term was popularized and institutionalized in the UK after the millennium (Schultz 2006). For example, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural affairs (DEFRA) defined horizon scanning in 2002 as:..
Saritas and Smith 2011), while others have focused on specific fields such as telemedicine (Blackburn et al. 2010), security (Botterhuis et al. 2010), environmental conservation (Sutherland et al. 2011),
or energy, health and cognitive enhancement (Amanatidou et al. 2012). Dedicated centres have been established to provide horizontal support for government departments (e g.
Saritas and Smith (2011), for instance, consider trends, drivers of change, wild cards/shocks, discontinuities, and weak signals as meaningful units to be scanned.
and surveys (Haegeman et al. 2011; Mckinsey & Company 2009; Saritas and Smith 2011), for instance, can be effective in collecting
and assessing observations as well as in synthesizing these inputs (Ko nno la et al. 2007; Salo et al. 2009) in preparation for subsequent face-to-face stakeholder workshops. 2. 4 Building ground for crosscutting policy coordination At best,
and are linked to existing decision-making structures (Georghiou and Csaaingena Harper 2011). This is because the mere listing of issues appears
'whose exploration paves way for policy coordination and the attainnmen of systemic policy objectives (Schoen et al. 2011).
>accessed 16 september 2011) Area No. Issue code Key words from issue description (optional) Save natural resources (water,
Notes 1. See<http://horizonscanning. defra. gov. uk>accessed 26 september 2011. See also Schultz (2006. 2. Effie Amanatidou, Anette Braun, Ville Brummer and Mika Mannermaa supported JRC-IPTS in reviewing four out of the six areas. 3. During the International Seville Conference
discontinuities and weak signals likely to share the future (Saritas and Smith 2011). The particularly novel issues from this survey were added to the issues collected from the literature review. 4. These issues plus the 73 additional issues identified by the survey participants can be found at<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/bepa. html
>accessed 18 september 2011. References Amanatidou, E.,Butter, M.,Carabias, V.,Ko nno la, T. et al.
rub=proceedings&page=info>accessed 14 september 2011. Boden, M.,Cagnin, C.,Carabias, V.,Haegeman, K. and Ko nno la, T. 2010)‘ Facing the future:
Brummer, V.,Salo, A.,Nissinen, J. and Liesio, J. 2011)‘ A methodology for the identification of prospective collaboraatio networks in international R&d programs',International Journal of Technology management, 54
Georghiou, L. and Cassingena Harper, J. 2011)‘ From priority-setting to articulation of demand: Foresight for research and innovation policy and strategy',Futures, 43: 243 51.
Haegeman, K.,Cagnin, C.,Ko nno la, T.,Dimitrov, G. and Collins, D. 2011)‘ Web 2. 0 for foresight:
Experiences on an innovation platform in European agenda setting'in Proceedings of the FTA 2011 Conference, Seville,<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/>accessed 26 september 2011.
Ko nno la, T.,Scapolo, F.,Desruelle, P. and Mu, R. 2011)‘ Foresight tackling societal challenges:
Mckinsey global survey results',<http://www. mckinseyquarterly. com/>accessed 14 september 2011. Mendonc¸A s.,Pina e Cunha, M.,Kaivo-oja, J. and Ruff, F. 2004)‘ Wild cards, weak signals and organisational improvisattion'Futures, 36: 201 18.
OECD. Rossel, P. 2011)‘ Beyond the obvious: Examining ways of consolidating early detection schemes',Technological forecasting and Social Change, 78: 375 85.
Saritas, O. and Smith, J. E. 2011)‘ The big picture trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals',Futures, 43: 292 312.
Schoen, A.,Ko nno la, T.,Warnke, P.,Barre',R. and Kuhlmann, S. 2011)‘ Tailoring foresight to field specificities',Futures, 43: 232 42.
<http://ec. europa. eu/research/innovation-union/pdf/rationale en. pdf#view=fit&pagemode=none>,accessed 16 september 2011.
2011)‘ Horizon scan of global conservation issues for 2011',Trends in Ecology and Evolution, 26:10 6. Taleb, N. N. 2007) The Black swan:
cities and organisattions Even the New framework Programme‘Horizon 2020'will stress programmes that are based on‘social challenges'(European commission 2011:
EU 2011 or the different definitions given during the presentations at the Innovation Convention, held 5 6 december 2011 in Brussels). Some institutions and companies have lists of megatrends and regard them as global challenges.
Steinmu ller 2011) and all of them have been ongoing problems for a long time so at the same time, they are based on trends or megatrends.
E5 million in funding for each challenge within the Future markets programme are to be spent (starting in 2011.
The five research projects that were selected started in 2011, so it is too early to evaluate their concrete impacts.
Notes 1. See<http://www. hightech-strategie. de/de/81. php>accessed 15 july 2011. This is the strategy of the German government in science and technology fields,
see also<http://www. bmbf. de>accessed 15 july 2011. References Blind, K.,Cuhls, K. and Grupp, H. 2001)‘ Personal attitudes in the assessment of the future of science and technology:
Bundesministerium fu r Bildung und Forschung,<http://www. hightech-strategie. de/de/81. php>accessed 20 july 2011.
2011)‘ Communication from the Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee fo the Regions'.
The Framework programme for Research and Innovation, COM (2011) 808 final. Brussels: European commission. Glenn, J. C.,Gordon, T. J. and Florescu, E. 2009)‘ 2009 State of the Future;
'<http://www. millennium-project. org/millennium/sof2009. html>accessed 20 july 2011. Horx, M. 2007)‘ Megatrends'.<
'<http://www. horx. com/Reden/Macht-der-Megatrends. aspx>accessed 15 july 2011 (authors'own translation.
2009), See<www. se2009. eu/..fs/1...lund declaration final version 9 july. pdf>accessed 20 september 2011. Naisbitt, J. 1984) Megatrends:
Steinmu ller, K. 2011)‘ Wild Cards Preparing for the unpredicttable Wild cards in the framework of risk assessment and horizon scanning,
<http://community. iknowfutures. eu/pg/pages/view/3528>accessed 22 july 2011. UN Millennium Challenges. 2005), See<http://www. millennium-project. org/millennium/challenges. html>accessed 19 july 2011.244.
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