Keywords Foresight, Strategic dialogue, Research policy, Stakeholder alignment, Scenario planning, Germany, Innovation, Strategic planning, Governance, Management Paper type Case study 1. The challenge of transferring foresight results Through research policy,
Scenarios and exploration in depth Given that future-looking activities of the BMBF often span time periods of ten to 20 years it can be fruitful to engage all stakeholders in building normative and/or exploratory scenarios as a guide and framework
or more scenarios and understand the drivers leading to them. The scenarios are turned subsequently into prose based on the results of discussion in the workshop.
The draft is circulated for review and completion by the experts over the course of two feedback loops.
The scenario process as described can also be followed by further workshops to explore and detail certain aspects.
energy-efficient and climate-adapted city''that was developed in a scenario workshop with a cross-disciplinary panel of 20 experts.
competitor profiling, early warning assessment, scientometrics, science mapping, scenarios, network analysis and so forth (Calof and Smith, 2010).
and Analysis) and to assess multiple scenarios to support the design of dynamic adaptive policies.
De Smedt et al. 5 investigate ways in which futures thinking assisted by scenarios can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges and for orienting innovation systems.
and it deals with uncertainties by using an ensemble of different models to explore a multiplicity of plausible futures (or scenarios.
Finally, future research avenues include elaborating on the use of EMA for designing dynamic adaptive policies and the use of EMA for scenario discovery,
It does so by analysing seventeen scenario-based projects to identify elements of good practices
and principles as to how to strengthen innovation systems through scenario analysis. In this context, scenarios are seen as a tool for inspiring and orienting innovation systems.
Therefore, scenarios stimulate future-oriented thinking, create a common language and understanding between stakeholders thus supporting a systematic negotiation process,
and legitimate a chosen course of action through engagement and dialogue. The underlying claim is that innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems.
However, one must be aware that the relevance of quantitative methods may lie more in their systematic process of comparing policy alternatives under different scenarios,
e g. when relying on qualitative scenarios in devising technology roadmaps. They also identified the scientific quality and validity of outcomes of participatory approaches as an issue of concern 18.
Quantification of qualitative scenarios: Quantitative methods can also be used to process qualitative judgments for scenario design 30,31.
Valette 32 points at opportunities for foresight exercises that combine expert-based contrasted socioeconomic and policy scenarios (qualitative part) and a mathematical quantification of the impacts of the alternative scenarios (quantitative part)( p. 239.
Output of quantitative approaches that feeds into qualitative FTA Use of bibliometric and patent analysis as an input for further qualitative FTA:
trend extrapolation), highlighting that they were combined with literature review, scenarios and expert panels. These conclusions have to be interpreted with care,
One example constitutes the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios, linking ecosystem change and human well-being by combining qualitative storyline development and quantitative modelling through several iterations between both parts 44.
In the scenario development it was possible to identify areas where analytical tools are relatively weak and can be improved.
In the quantification of ecosystem service scenarios it was possible to identify where advancements are needed in terms of model developments. 4. Barriers to integrating FTA METHODS The above taxonomy
On the other hand, qualitative approaches have been adopted for many decades (e g. scenarios) with no other involvement than that of the FTA EXPERTS.
Unavoidably, policy-makers and stakeholders will assign a higher plausibility to scenarios that somehow resonate with their own visions.
a stocktaking of basic knowledge (including e g. relevant statistical evidence, existing scenarios and corresponding outputs,
a participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 77 (2010) 34 49.395 K. Haegeman et al./
(Coordinating lead authors), Methodology for Developing the MA Scenarios, in: S. R. Carpenter, P. L. Pingali, E. M. Bennett and M. B. Zurek (Eds), Ecosystems and Human Well-being:
Scenarios, Volume 2, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Washington: ISLAND PRESS, 2005.45 D. T. Campbell, A Study of Leadership Among Submarine Officers, Ohio State university Res.
building policy options into a scenario for development in a global knowledge society, Futures 37 (2005) 813 831.74 R. Johnston, Developing the capacity to assess the impact of foresight, Foresight 14 (1
following his optimistic view of a strong, confident technology-driven scenario, which would bring a renewed thrust toward new methods in technological forecasting (Fig. 1). The picture suggests that the chaotic phase transition might be behind us
and explore thousands of plausible scenarios using simulation models, data mining techniques, and robust optimization. The proposed approach,
This case demonstrates how the performance of a policy can be improved iteratively by exploring its performance across thousands of plausible scenarios,
which the adaptive policy needs to be extended until a satisfying dynamic adaptive policy is found for the entire ensemble of plausible scenarios.
Policy failures are often attributable to the omission of uncertainties in policy-making 7. Policies that would be optimal for one particular scenario often fail in most other scenarios.
analysts often use techniques such as exploratory scenarios 9, Delphi surveys 10, and the analysis of wild cards and weak signals 11.
all alternative system models, plausible scenarios, and evaluations require consideration, without exception, and none should be treated as the single best model representation, true scenario,
or correct evaluation. It is clear that there is a strong need for policy-making approaches that allow for dealing with deep uncertainty,
i e. with many different kinds of uncertainties, multiple models, a multiplicity of plausible scenarios and evaluations of these scenarios 17.
and other uncertainties in order to generate a large variety of scenarios that are used in turn to analyze complex uncertain systems,
and exploring a multiplicity of plausible scenarios by sweeping multidimensional uncertainty space. EMA could then be used to identify vulnerabilities
and opportunities present in this ensemble of scenarios, paving the way for designing targeted actions that address vulnerabilities
The efficacy of the resulting policies could then be tested over the entire ensemble of scenarios.
and (3) the development of an ensemble of models that allows generating many plausible scenarios. It then proceeds with:(
4) the generation of a large ensemble of scenarios,(5) the exploration and analysis of the ensemble of scenarios obtained in Step 4
in the models,(8) the generation of all plausible scenarios, subject to the candidate policies, (9) the exploration and analysis of the ensemble of scenarios obtained in Step 8
in order to identify troublesome and/or promising regions across the outcomes of interest, as well as the main causes of densely concentrated troublesome and/or promising regions, etc.
which allows distilling uncertainty subspaces with high positive match ratios for a pre-specified binary classification function and with high relative masses (above a pre-specified threshold relative to the total scenario space).
however, aimed at translating the troublesome regions back to qualitative scenarios that could then be presented to a decision maker.
this uncertainty subspace consists of acceptable scenarios in terms of CO2 avoidance even though the transition to new technologies is limited.
New methods for Quantitative, Long-term Policy analysis, RAND, Santa monica, California, 2003.9 K. van der Heijden, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, 1996.10 H. A. Lindstone, M. Turoff, The Delphi method:
Change 71 (2004) 287 303.18 A. Volkery, T. Ribeiro, Scenario planning in public policy: understanding use, impacts and the role of institutional context factors, Technol.
Comput. 9 (1999) 123 143.40 D. G. Groves, R. J. Lempert, A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios, Glob.
scenarios, Manag. Sci. 52 (2006) 514 528.42 J. H. Kwakkel W. L. Auping, E. Pruyt, Dynamic scenario discovery under deep uncertainty:
the future of copper, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (in press), http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore. 2012.09.012.43 B. P. Bryant, R. J. Lempert, Thinking inside the box:
a participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 77 (2010) 34 49.44 R. Lempert, M. Collins, Managing the risk of uncertain threshold response:
to method uncertainties (e g. different modeling methods) using computational models as scenario generators. This paper explores the potential of EMA for FTA.
describe and visualize interesting scarcity scenarios for the client. Both objectives were achieved at first by means of traditional System Dynamics modeling and manual exploration of the influence of key assumptions, changing one assumption at a time.
At a later stage, the model was used as a scenario generator for EMA, allowing the automatic and simultaneous exploration of many uncertainties and assumptions.
a scenario generator is specified. In total, 48 different generators are possible. Each generator in turn has its own parametric ranges over
These bounds are calculated across the 48 scenario generators and their associated parameter ranges. The column‘static plan'in Table 5 shows the results of this analysis. Looking at the various outcome indicators,
and the large number of scenarios encompassing the spectrum of those uncertainties. However, no careful assessment of EMA for FTA has taken place yet.
by combining it with scenario discovery 48. In light of all this, EMA thus appears to be a useful addition to the portfolio of methods
Porter et al. 1 argued that foresight exercises could not comprehensively explore the full range of scenarios that is encompassed by the many irreducible uncertainties encountered
(2013) 419 431 scenario discovery. Another major avenue of research is on the communication of EMA that results to policy-makers and FTA practitioners.
dynamic scenario discovery under deep uncertainty, Technological forecasting and Social Change,(under review. 23 R. U. Ayres, On the practical limits to substitution, Ecol.
Rev. 15 (1999) 3 36.31 R. J. Lempert, D. G. Groves, S. Popper, S. Bankes, A general analytic method for generating robust strategies and narrative scenarios, Manag.
Sci. 52 (2006) 514 528.32 D. G. Groves, R. J. Lempert, A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios, Glob.
a participatory computer assisted approach to scenario discovery, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 77 (2010) 34 49.49 S. J. Heblij, Development of a runway allocation optimisation model.
By analyzing several scenario cases, elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified.
Reflexive inquiry Innovation Scenario practice Grand challenges 1. Introduction In the context of this paper, future scenarios can be seen as narratives set in the future to explore how the society would change
, extrapolations or trends, substituting the criterion of plausibility for probability 1. Scenarios are not equivalent to images of the future,
whereas scenarios consist of a logical sequence of images of the future 2. 1. 1. Developing
and using future scenarios Scenario analysis is practiced across many domains and is restricted not to specialized futurists or scenario specialists 3. Developing and using scenarios can contribute at various levels of society by generating appropriate inputs for planning
and decision-making and by facilitating dialogues between various stakeholders 4. The value of the scenario exercise depends on the ways in
which the resulting insights are implemented in on-going and forthcoming actions. However, the explicit and direct uses of scenarios in predefined decision-making contexts are just part of a broader social process 5. Also important indirect and diffuse links exist between developing
and using scenarios and orienting innovation systems and research priorities 6. Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 Corresponding author.
Tel.:++32 2 5535785; fax:++32 2 5535808. E-mail address: peter. desmedt@dar. vlaanderen. be (P. De Smedt.
Although the use of scenarios has gained much adherence, its subjective and heuristic nature leaves many academics
whether we have credible and salient scenarios? And how does developing and using scenarios lead to the expected direct and indirect inputs for orienting innovation systems?
These concerns are legitimate and the use of scenarios would gain in academic standing if more research were conducted on their comparative performance
and underlying theoretical premises 7. While the scenario literature makes explicit the methodological differences and similarities of various approaches,
it tends to pay little attention to the underlying epistemological assumptions 8. For example, scenarios that imaginatively represent plausible futures will meet resistance
if they are used as predictions. 1. 2. Grand challenges The aim of this paper is to initiate a discussion on how scenario analysis can help to better cope with the grand challenges
and to disclose some principles by which scenario processes can inspire innovation. Today's grand challenges from climate change to unemployment and poverty go beyond economic
and social policies 9. Grand challenges are interrelated usually and operating at a global scale 10. Often it is not clear
several scholars state that scenarios constitute a major tool for considering the future in strategic planning 18 23.
In order to investigate how scenario analysis can help better cope with the grand challenges and inspire innovation, we analyze several scenario exercises to better understand the role future scenarios can play as a tool for orienting innovation systems.
The remaining sections of this paper are organized as follows: Section 2 sets out the methodology of how we use reflexive inquiry to analyze the scenario case studies.
Section 3 describes how we conceptualize inspiring issues and paradigms from different scientific disciplines such as business and innovation research, futures studies, sociology and policy analysis.
These concepts and paradigms are used then to analyze the selected scenario case studies. For example, we look how the applied
or perceived modes of thinking about the future and multiple stakeholder values are initiating enablers or barriers for the scenario process.
In Section 5, we further discuss our findings addressing how scenario practice can orientate innovation systems in the view of the grand challenges.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 2. Material and methods How can we learn about orienting innovation systems from future scenario practice?
This means that practice, such as scenario practice, is rooted in a particular moment and place. In accordance with Cunliff 27 and to be consistent with reflexive inquiry,
we first have to deconstruct scenario practice. In order to do so, three complementary questions on policy change are applied to analyze the case studies:(
The empirical evidence is based on a sample of 17 scenario projects (see Appendix 1. for an overview of the cases.
the workshops allowed for a systematic ex-post evaluation of similarities and differences between the chosen scenario projects.
futures thinking and scenarios 3. 1. Innovation systems Innovation involves the application of new ideas or the reapplication of old ideas in new ways to develop better solutions to our needs 31.
Scenario practice and related techniques Reflecting the uncertain threats of the cold war, the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,
who joined Rand, explored the application of systems analysis and game theory in order to encourage‘thinking the unthinkable'8. Meanwhile in France,
Gaston Berger started using scenarios to explore the long-term political and social future. He founded the Centre d'Etudes Prospectives
and his approach to scenarios was primarily normative, i e. scenarios intended to provide a guiding vision of the future for policy-makers 46.
Scenario building and planning was developed further for management purposes, for example through the works of Pierre Wack
Peter Schwartz and many others 8. Since then, scenario approaches have continued to evolve and their use seems to be increasing again 18,47, 48.
Developing and using scenarios are professional practices to support significant decisions, and therefore it needs to be more assured of its claims to knowledge (methodology).
For instance, forecasting and modeling methods have a focus on what is known and what is unknown. This can encompass
but it is still essentially working in terms of the same basic known unknown dichotomy 8. In contrast, explorative scenarios deal with different kinds of knowledge, ignorance and uncertainty, for example,
The identification of the motivation behind any scenario exercise appears to underpin the scenario typology described by Borjesön et al. 50,
The categories arise from the kinds of question that a scenario user might use about the future:
Each of these questions can be seen to evoke the motivation of a particular approach to scenarios.
scenarios lead to predictive scenarios, in effect, forecasts, which look at what will happen as the likely development occurs.
scenarios are concerned normative scenarios with achieving particular future objectives which lead to preserving and transforming scenarios.
Preserving scenarios are used when the target can be met within an existing structure, while transforming scenarios feature a form of backcasting, asking
what would need to be changed for the target futures to be achieved. Although most reviews of scenario techniques distinguish between quantitative and qualitative techniques,
the boundaries between approaches have become increasingly blurred by techniques that make use of both kinds of methods and information 51.
Hence, our brief overview of scenario techniques is intended not to provide a comprehensive classification or typology.
Merely its role is to describe the variety of current techniques that are relevant for this paper.
It generates four contrasting scenarios relevant to a particular area of interest, which may be geographic or thematic,
These spaces are developed then into scenario narratives reflecting the influence of other events and trends in addition to those represented on the two axes.
Backcasting scenarios explore the preconditions that could lead to this desirable future, including a palette of strategies to reach this situation 54.
All the above describe approaches to futures thinking during which (potential) inputs for scenarios can be produced.
These types of approaches are typical of those used in our analysis (see Appendix 1 for an overview of the scenario cases.
4. Results and implications The value of scenarios lies in the robustness of the claims to knowledge within the process of the scenario development.
as it will reveal significant choices underlying the presented scenarios 61. To structure our research,
the scenario cases are evaluated using the three complementary questions on policy change mentioned in Section 2 (Material and methods).
i e. window of opportunity, we looked at scenarios as a tool to support planning and decision-making.
When the motivation is oriented towards developing scenarios, the focus tends to shift towards building consensus within the scenarios,
missing the opportunity to explore the potential for innovation in conflicting views. Although legitimate for several reasons,
In addition, our analysis indicates that scenarios with a strong focus on consensus during the development are often too vague and too broad for defining tangible innovation opportunities.
By reshaping the scenarios to reach consensus, they are limited often to accepted statements about the obvious.
This is in contrast with scenario exercises, where the motivation is oriented towards using the future scenarios for strategic discussions.
which scenarios are right but is oriented more to whether the scenarios delineate the range of possible futures appropriately 64.
As documented by van der Heijden 65, the strategic discussion has its origin in uncertainty, both in the external environment and within the organization.
Using inspirational scenarios (in this context, one could label them as simple in form but representing extreme uncertainties) can contribute strongly to triggering feelings of surprise and discovery.
Responding to this emotive and cognitive disruption requires participants to think in ways that produce innovative and competitive solutions in a changing environment The DP21 scenarios (see Appendix 1) are a good example.
we distinguish two groups of scenario practice. We argue that dependent on the dominance of one of the two motivations (respectively a. developing
and b. using scenarios) a different scenario process is shaped and different types of outcome are achieved. Identifying these two groups of scenario practice is neither a typology nor a comprehensive classification.
The two motivations are connected to the perspective used in the analysis (i e. window of opportunity) and can be seen as a polarized view on this element of practice.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 our analysis a better understanding of the linkages between scenario design, methods used and related outcomes.
For example, by analyzing the dominant motivation of the scenario cases we found a tension between incentives for consensus building and incentives for discovery.
As an implication for practitioners, we recommend that careful design of scenario exercises is needed to achieve a balance between developing
and using scenarios to strengthen the sense of urgency. 4. 2. Legitimacy for action Looking at the second perspective,
i e. legitimacy for action, our analysis revealed three groups of scenario practice in the case studies from Appendix 1. The following sub-sections will describe the main characteristics for each of these three groups:
and sub-section 4. 2. 3 Backcasting from principles. 4. 2. 1. Framing boundaries A first group of scenario practice is characterized by a focus on framing boundaries.
The Prelude scenarios2 are a good example (see Appendix 1). An important input for the scenario work in this group are the comprehensive descriptions of the external drivers for change highlighting the uncertainty of future developments.
Scenarios generated using the axes'process are explorative rather than normative; they tend to focus on the strategic level
The value of the set of scenarios lays in the capacity to explore boundaries. This method is excellent for presenting a rich picture of multiple facets of a potential future:
when an experienced scenario writer or film-maker is engaged at the final stage, the set of scenarios produced can be very persuasive, even to a non-specialist audience.
Narratives are a natural, resonating way for people to communicate, and can be helpful in dealing with complexity,
Creating awareness for the unforeseen is most often an important objective and desired outcome of this group of scenario practice.
A technique underpinning these types of scenarios is described by Weiner & Brown 68 as the extremes that inform the middle.
Still, it is less obvious how these scenarios can be used for bridging today's decisions with the future images.
Most often, the scenarios are used to highlight important societal assets under threat. This links well with the concept of risk-society 69 and risk management.
Our analysis suggests that this can be contributed partly to the selected process design for developing the scenarios.
When considered from the perspective of creating legitimacy for action we also suggest that the scenarios in this group could benefit fromcomplementary techniques connecting the long-term future images to the present via stepping stones.
Using roadmaps is an example of such a complementary technique for linking scenarios with internal innovation capabilities (i e. inward reflection.
Moreover, while participatory scenario-making provides visions for multiple futures, a roadmap only operates with one vision.
Linking scenarios with technology roadmapping initiates an exploratory and creative phase to identify and understand uncertainties.
Developing a set of scenarios acknowledges multiple rather than one future, equally plausible, whereas roadmapping provides a framework for condensing all information in one map
Backcasting from targets A second group of scenario practice is characterized by a focus on backcasting from targets.
changes in the external environment are part of the scenarios. But in contrast with the first group, change is described less by framing very different long-term future worlds.
Rather, the focus of the scenarios in the second group is oriented towards a sequence of clear targets linked with short-term stepping stones,
Clearly innovation is an essential feature of the scenarios. 2 PRELUDE: PROSPECTIVE Environmental analysis of Land use Development in Europe. 437 P. De Smedt et al./
Our analysis also suggests possible improvements for this group of scenario practice. Roadmaps directed towards a single target are likely to be inappropriate where policy intervention may direct technology towards a different trajectory altogether 70,71.
The innovation potential of the scenarios can be strengthened through broadening the system boundaries and enriching the future images.
A good example can be found with the scenario practice developed by the Natural Step3 (see for instance Givaudan case in Appendix 1). The focal points of the scenarios are sustainability concerns and criteria.
The concept of change is an implicit part of the scenarios developed in backcasting from principles
Also for the third group of scenario practice, we suggest some areas of improvement with regard to legitimizing actions by adding a planning perspective via roadmaps or similar approaches.
Comprehensive and well-designed roadmaps linking today's experiments with future images can improve the impact of the scenarios.
but the process of exchanging knowledge is recognized to overcome some limits of conventional scenario practice 61.
i e. empowering stakeholders, our analysis of the case studies from Appendix 1 revealed two groups of scenario practice:
In several exercises, expert judgment was the main input for scenario development. Involvement of stakeholders was looked not intentionally for.
Our analysis suggests that scenarios developed with broader stakeholder/expert participation will provide richer future images that go beyond the probable that is determined by the past and present 73,75.
As opposed to past scenario practice, we believe there is often no clear cut difference between experts and stakeholders:
Thus the scenario process can be seen as frame for dialogue, not to reach consensus but to recognize other parties'point of view.
it should not be the primary goal of scenario processes. Rather we suggest that developing
and using scenarios should be viewed as a systemized negotiation process among key stakeholders (social actors),
we argue that our reflexive inquiry of the selected cases from Appendix 1 helped disclose several representation issues in scenario practice.
and scenarios can help better cope with the grand challenges and how future scenarios can inspire innovation. 3 http://www. naturalstep. org/.
In addition, several scholars state that scenarios constitute a major tool for considering the future in strategic planning 18
Developing and using scenarios can be considered a field of applied research, i e. where particular methods are applied to‘solve'particular puzzles.
However, the commonality of scenario applications is the orientation to the future and that the knowledge produced is uncertain.
developing and using scenarios need to be more assured of its claims to knowledge 61.
Following a reflexive inquiry methodology in the analysis of the scenario cases listed in Appendix 1,
three complementary questions on policy change are applied to analyze scenario practice:(i) How can developing and using future scenarios present a window of opportunity to effectively drive decisions?;(
By questioning representation from a policy perspective and deconstructing future scenario practice, we were able to (re) construct findings to the above questions:(
By doing so, we are able to link issues of representation with groups of scenario practice.
Instead of framing practice based on theory, future scenario practice is deconstructed into seven groups. These seven groups are linked further to the most characteristic theoretical premises
For example, we argue that a strong focus on developing scenarios and consensus increases a risk of diluting a sense of urgency.
During the scenario exercise, consensus may not be appropriate to promote differences and to stimulate novel ideas.
one group using scenarios as the most characteristic feature, and another group with developing scenarios as the most characteristic feature.
For these two groups, the scenario cases have been analyzed to disclose elements of theoretical premises. In the first group, we found that the scenarios are used for supporting strategic discussions about futures that are shaped by surprise and confrontation.
Examples of supportive techniques are the use of an uncertainty matrix and the multi-axes method using factors of high uncertainty and high impact.
Based on our reflexive inquiry used to analyze scenario exercises in their context we can then attribute the most characteristic mode of thinking. 4 Innovation is not only about invention, creation,
or discovery, it is also about adaptation and emergence of new innovation systems 31. Principles on how to orient innovation systems through future scenarios will require conditions for collaboration.
Table 2 Linking groups of future scenario practice from a policy perspective with modes of future thinking.
Policy perspective (representation) Scenario practice (most characteristic) Types of futures (main focus) Techniques (example) Modes of futures thinking Window of opportunity (sense of urgency) Using scenarios Shaped by surprise
and confrontation Uncertainty matrix Intuitive Developing scenarios Shaped by convention Consensus (Delphi) Convention Legitimacy for action
However, it is also crucial to keep in mind the limitations of the scenario methodology 80.
Clearly, scenarios do not point to simple short-cuts into a more sustainable future 64. Table 3 provides a brief description for each of the 7 dominant modes of futures thinking.
as articulations of theoretical premises, can be distinguished in future scenario practice. In addition, we abstracted different dominant modes of futures thinking linked within different groups.
In reality, each scenario exercise is a mixture of different modes and practice is shaped by the image (s) of the future and the techniques applied.
To strengthen the enablers for innovation within the scenario process, the link between practice and theory,
when designing and implementing future scenario exercises. As described in Section 4 (results and implications) cross-fertilizations between the techniques of the different groups can enhance the innovation potential.
Our analyses of the scenario case studies from Appendix 1 revealed elements of good practice and implications on how to better address innovation through future scenarios.
and using scenarios. In addition, we also identified some points of departure for further refinement of current scenario practices with respect to innovation.
Firstly, and summarizing our recommendations for future scenario practice, we suggest that representation issues (i e. what is,
and what is represented not in the scenarios, who was and who was involved not, and whether a sense of urgency was established
or was lacking) are an important feature in the design and application of future scenario practice.
In this paper we argue that the limits of current practice are to a certain extent linked with representation issues.
As acknowledged in the previous sections (see also Tables 2 and 3), cross-fertilization between scenario approaches and techniques, such as framing boundaries, roadmapping,
i e. using a policy perspective for doing an ex-post analysis of future scenario practice. Innovation systems are complex and dynamic
and scenario practice is applied more widely than our sample. Therefore, when using reflexivity in research or in scenario practice,
it is also essential to make one's perspective clear so that the claims to knowledge can be critiqued constructively and improved.
i e. participatory scenario analysis, is required to produce a variety of possible, and not only probable or desired futures among the actors that develop,
and using scenarios should be viewed as a systemized negotiation process among key stakeholders (social actors),
IPTS and different past and present foresight network initiatives such as the European foresight Platform and Forlearn for organizing creative discussion platforms on foresight and scenario initiatives.
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offering scenarios and integrated solutions to support policy-makers. Currently Peter works at the Research centre of the Flemish Government where he is in charge of foresight and sustainability assessment.
Furthermore, he is an expert in foresight and scenario methodologies, where his interests are focused on how to handle trans-disciplinary conflicts and scientific uncertainty.
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