such as bibliometrics and modeling to qualitative and participatory tools such as focus groups and scenario building cf. 30.
Vision Structural transformation Inductive approach Foresight methodology Innovation pattern Visualisation Scenarios Weak signals 1. Introduction Envisioning structural transformation in foresight exercises is challenging.
scenarios and roadmaps challenging today's paradigms and basic assumptions on system dynamics. A third arena where systemic change needs to be addressed is innovation itself as its very definition seems to be shifting.
It was carried out between 2009 and 2012 by the Austrian Institute of technology AIT (Austria), Fraunhofer ISI (Germany), Z punkt (Germany) and Solutioning Design Scenarios SDS (Belgium.
and print media 2. stepwise clustering of the findings into visions in interaction with innovation actors through interviews and an online survey 3. development and assessment of scenarios of future innovation landscapes 4. generation of policy implications.
but also by the distinct steps for building the scenarios or visions of the future. In the case of scenario building the model-based approach is in widespread use in Europe,
whereas an intuitive approach without any software support has been practiced for many years in the US 17.
and uncertainty as the main criteria for selecting the factors to be used for actually constructing the scenarios 18.
As a consequence, in many cases the scenario logic is dominated by very general macro-level factors such as globalisation or societal values.
Confronted with totally new and unanticipated situations, the scenario approaches, as commonly practiced, tend to exclude such patterns as inconsistent 19.
When the micro level is added in the fleshing out phase of the scenario building, it sometimes merely serves to illustrate the pre-conceptualised macro-structures.
In the past years approaches have been developed to integrate disruptive events into scenario building in the form of wildcards 20.
While this will certainly open up the scenario arena towards taking into account unexpected events and possible trend reversal,
and to create scenarios by clustering trends that are assumed to occur simultaneously. The INFU project followed a similar approach by combining the inductive scenario building concept with a weak signal scanning activity.
After the initial scanning process for signals of change the signalswere clustered by dimensions of change.
The aim was to avoid misinterpretations because of hidden signals (blind spots) caused by intra-systemic perception filters of the project team. 2. 4. Prolonged divergence In the initial phase of a scenario building exercise, the environmental scanning,
Secondly, at classical scenario building workshops people with different viewpoints and expertise are requested to assess the influence factors,
P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 the scenario building activity is looking for a consensus building process among the participants
In a classical scenario building process participants'contributions are channelled through the scenario building framework. This can be more or less rigorous depending on the approach.
and scenario building approach used the signals of change to develop diverse visions without using an impact/uncertainty matrix
which is described often as the backbone of the scenario process 18. Visual inspiration turned out to be one of the main characteristics of the project.
and are designed not to sketch out a comprehensive vision or scenario encompassing structural transformation. Mapping and interpretation of weak signals is still in its infancy and thus an important challenge for further studies 31.
which has been proved to be a robust and resilient approach to develop alternative scenarios 32, p. 111.
but was integrated in the process of building visions and scenarios. Similar to approaches of participatory design 33 the story-scripts allowed peoplewith different backgrounds to imagine a situation in the future without comprehensive textual information.
and diverse scenario approaches might help in addressing structural transformation. Further methodological research in this direction is required.
a hybrid strategic scenario method, Futures 39 (4)( 2007) 341 362.3 European commission, Communication from the Commission to the European parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions
Developing Policy-oriented Scenarios, Earthscan Publ. Ltd. London u. a.,2010.19 F. Liebl, Rethinking trends
and how to link them to scenarios, in: Paper Presented at SMS-Conference, San francisco, 2001.20 E. Hiltunen, Was it a wild card or just our blindness to gradual change?
How to improve scenario analysis as strategic management tool? Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 72 (2005) 161 173.22 E. Hiltunen, The future sign and its three dimensions, Futures 40 (3)( 2008) 247 260.23 F. Jégou, K
J. Libermann, Participatory scenario building, in: E. Manzini, F. Jégou (Eds. Sustainable Everyday, Scenarios of Urban Life, 2003, pp. 246 255.26 F. Jégou, S. Vincent, Co-design approaches for early phases of augmented environments, in:
S. Lahlou (Ed.),Designing User Friendly Augmented Work Environments From Meeting Rooms to Digital Collaborative Spaces, Springer verlag, London, 2009.27 P. Warnke, E
E. Dönitz, M. G. Möhrle, Consistency matrices within scenario technique: an empirical investigation, in: H.-D. Haasis, H. Kopfer, J. Schönberger (Eds.
Operations research Proceedings 2005, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2005, pp. 741 746.29 P. Warnke, E. Schirrmeister, INFU scenario assessment report (deliverable D
Ansoff Today, Futures 44 (2012) 198 205.32 B. Ralston, W. Ralston, The Scenario planning Handbook: A Practitioner's Guide to Developing and Using Scenarios to Direct Strategy in Today's Uncertain Times, Thomson Southwestern, Mason, Ohio, 2006.33 J. Buur, B. Matthews, Participatory innovation, Int
. J. Innov. Manag. 12 (3)( 2008) 255 273.34 J. Grin, J. Rotmans, J. Schot, Transitions to sustainable development, New Directions in the Study of Long term Transformative Change, Routledge
Her scientific interests are innovative approaches of scenario and roadmap development. As a mechanical engineer she has conducted various foresight projects on future prospects for industrial production and on research and innovation patterns on behalf of government authorities
which is analysed then typically through scenario approaches. The main exception to this anchorage in the mainstream has been the emergence of horizonscanning where in the face of uncertainty the goal is to uncover the Rumsfeldian‘unknown unknowns'2
but very many of these are of the form‘Scenarios plus X'.Apart from combining recognised FTA METHODS,
and using scenarios. In planning subsequent such FTA gatherings, it may be useful to look for signs of shared sense-making frameworks able to encompass, on the one hand, a tightly constrained roadmapping of a given technology within the assumptions of a specific scenario of national/European competitiveness,
and on the other hand, an account of ways to think about policy options based on the indeterminacy of complex emergent innovation systems
Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, Berlin, Heidelberg, 2008, pp. 1 13.13 L. B. Rasmussen, Interactive scenario analysis, in:
we focus on the use of foresight methods, with special attention to scenario analysis, which involves the exploration of alternative images of the future,
In addition, scenario analysis is the systematic analysis of a variety of uncertainties combined into distinctive stories about the future (see 2). In this article
the consideration of scenario analysis as a method includes both the development and the use of scenarios.
We are interested in finding out (1) how scenario analysis as a Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 A r T I C L E I N F O Article history:
Foresight Users Policy Scenarios Dutch government Local National A b s T R A c T In this paper, we discuss the opinions
the use of the scenario analysis method makes policy-makers more aware of the future, future changes and the policy implications,
According to a recent study by the European Environmental Agency 6, there is insufficient empirical evidence of the added value of scenario analysis in general,
we may be able to gain insight into the value added of scenario method 6 7. 2. Research approach 2. 1. Research questions In setting up
, that of policy-makers who have applied scenario analysis and using their perceptions as a measure of the perceived added value.
The aim is to increase insight into topics such as the level of acquaintance and experience with scenario analysis methods in strategic policy-making,
the motives policy-makers have for using the scenario analysis method, and the perceived levers and barriers.
in which phase (s) of the policy cycle is the scenario analysis method used, and how and in which phase (s is added the value perceived.
scenario analysis methods can be used in the different phases of the policy cycle 1, 2, 4, 6, 9 11.
not only in the impact of using scenario analysis methods in the different phases of the policy cycle,
How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of scenario analysis methods? What are their motives for applying scenario analysis methods?
How are used the results in the strategic policy process, and in which phase (s) specifically? What, according to policy-makers, is added the value of using foresight methods in strategic policy processes?
because they may be involved in the development phase of scenarios as well as the usage phase of a foresight study. 2. 2. Methods
Each case involved experiences with the application of scenario analysis methods at a regional and/or local policy level (including municipalities and regional authorities.
whether they involved the use of scenarios for strategic policy-making and whether there was sufficient willingness to cooperate with the study and access to civil servants for interviews and other data sources.
The case involving the Province of Limburg concerns the use of two scenario studies, each in the context of the development of a strategic environment plan (see 16,
In the development process of the first environment plan, qualitative scenarios were developed by an external organisation in a broad participatory process.
A project team of the Provincial organisation monitored the scenario analysis project. In the development of the second plan, quantitative scenarios were produced.
Policy-makers from the provincial organisation were involved more thoroughly in the development of the scenarios. The empirical evidence for this paper is based on three indeept interviews with policy-makers who were involved closely in the development of the scenarios, the analysis of the scenario studies,
and the environment plans. N. Rijkens-Klomp P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 19 The Overschie case involves the development and use of a qualitative scenario analysis as a strategic building block for a new strategic coalition
programme for the new governing board 20. In depth interviews were conducted with the four members of the municipality management team
and with five civil servants who were involved in the scenario analysis. The case of Trendbureau of Overijssel includes different foresight exercises for strategic policy processes of city councils and the provincial organisation itself, focusing on different policy themes.
The Trendbureau is an independent organisation that is embedded in the provincial organisation of Overijssel and carries out foresight studies for local policy organisations
In the case about The hague, a scenario analysis was carried out by 16 civil servants of the Department of Urban Development,
which developed four generic qualitative scenarios for the city of The hague 22. The scenarios were used to reflect on the strategies of the city council's urban development Investment Programme.
Using a questionnaire 16 civil servants evaluated the development process of the scenarios. The two project coordinators of the Investment Programme were interviewed after the development of the scenarios.
In all cases, the scope of the analysis was the future of a territorial entity,
including all of its functions, with a time horizon of at least 10 years. At the local level, a document analysis was combined with interviews with policymakers.
The document analysis focused on documents regarding the scenarios and related strategic policy documents. The insights from this analysis were juxtaposed with the insights from the interviews.
the researcher trained the officials in the use of the scenario analysis method, while in the Overschie case, the researcher facilitated the scenario development
and application process and was one of the authors of the scenarios. One of the authors conducted both national level inquiries that were used as data sources for this article.
However, he was involved not from within the national government in the development and implementation of foresight methods for policy formation.
N. Rijkens-Klomp, P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 20 3. 1. How familiar and experienced are policy-makers with the use of the scenario analysis method?
In most cases, policy-makers at the local level are of the opinion that local organisations lack experience using scenario analysis methods.
Especially at the level of city councils, it is hard to find examples of strategic policy activities using scenario analysis methods,
and, even when scenario analysis is used, it is necessary to bring in external expertise. Some policy-makers mentioned that,
By way of contrast, the national level inquiries showed that civil servants are relatively familiar with foresight methods, especially scenario analysis,
in addition to scenarios (with which 99%of the respondents were familiar), most civil servants were also familiar with‘future essays',quantitative futures research, the Delphi method, game simulations and future workshops.
However, despite its popularity, civil servants often find it difficult to accept the scenario method, because some of them believe that the government can approach the future in a predictive manner,
where only four out of nine studies were based on scenario thinking. However in the different studies of the future in the‘organizational foresight'study, a more equal balance was found between expected, possible,
with the aim of gathering actual information to feed the scenario analysis, and to include representative and diverse perspectives.
What are the motivations of policy makers for applying the scenario analysis method? In all local cases, the main ambition was to use scenarios to raise awareness of a changing future
and underpin new policies and visions. This motive is defined by Da Costa et al. 25 as the function of‘informing policy':
at the national level, the reasons for using the scenario method tend to be more diverse than at the local level.
and process-driven motives for using the scenario analysis method in the different phases (see also the distinction between process-oriented and product-oriented development of scenarios 10).
it is still difficult to connect the insights of a scenario exercise to different steps in a strategic policy process.
Scenario exercises themselves are seen mostly as a project, not as an ongoing strategic process. It appears to be a huge step for policy-makers at the local level to link scenario insights to the agendasetttin and policy preparation phases.
An effort has been made, as part of this research, to identify some of the levers and barriers related to this linkage problem (see below).
On comparison, it appears that the connection between the results of the scenarios and the strategic policy-process is closer at the national level than it is at the regional level.
At the local level, it seems to be difficult at any phase in the policy cycles to use the results of scenario studies in an optimal way. 3. 4
In the past, some local policy-makers experienced a tendency among politicians to underpin policies by most likely scenarios.
By using scenario analysis methods they learned to look at alternatives, which was seen as a new way of thinking in most organisations.
Scenarios are meant also to test the robustness and N. Rijkens-Klomp P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 22 flexibility of strategies,
In the strategic policy documents, we discovered that this connection between scenarios and strategies is also (in part) lacking.
and expertise, making it difficult for policy-makers to know which types of scenario analysis methods and scenario frameworks are suitable to the needs of the strategic policy process.
For example policy-makers who are inexperienced in the use of foresight methods may find it difficult to decide which type of scenarios to develop/use
and whether to develop new scenarios or use existing ones. They have no clear guidelines that take the dynamics of the policy landscape and different stages of strategic policy processes into account.
When people are not familiar with the scenario analysis method, steering elements are implemented sometimes in the scenarios,
as a result of which the concrete added value of the scenarios for the purpose of visioning and strategy development can end up being obscured.
According to the policy-makers at the local level another challenge is to know which information sources they should use to develop the scenarios themselves.
Some policy-makers found it difficult to assess the quality of the sources of information regarding future developments.
Especially when policy-makers are confronted with various sources of information that are contradictory in terms of the future developments they describe,
and use of scenarios requires skills that were lacking when local organisations decided to conduct a foresight study for the first time.
ownership of the scenarios was unclear in some cases. Policy-makers indicated that they want to remain in control during the development (and use) of the foresight study.
and policy-makers and politicians will not experience the added value of the scenario analysis. Generally speaking, civil servants at the national level find it easier to gain access to high quality information
the timing of the scenarios will be compared different to a situation where the motive is to test policies by means of scenarios (the latter will take place at a later stage in the policy process).
Different methods of foresight (for example different types of qualitative scenarios) are available, different reasons and motives for setting up a foresight study may be legitimate,
Guidelines for Strategic foresight, Social Technologies, LLC, Washington, 2006.2 K. van der Heijden, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, Chichester, 2005.3 H. Kahn, A. Wiener, The Year 2000, Macmillan, New york, 1967.4 P. Schwartz, The Art of the Long View, Wiley
Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios, Wiley, New york, 2002.6 EEA, Looking back on looking forward: a review of evaluative scenario literature, in:
EEA Technical Report/No 3/2009,2009. 7 M. B. A. van Asselt, A. Faas, F. van der Molen, S. A. Veenman, Uit zicht.
Policy Cycles and Policy Subsystems, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 2003.9 G. Ringland, Scenarios In public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, West sussex, 2002.10 P. van Notten
Scenario development In times of Discontinuity, Dissertation. com, Boca raton, FL, USA, 2005.11 A n. G. Janssen M. R. Gramberger, P. A. de Ruijter, J. van Heijningen, Regeren is vooruitzien!
Scenario's maken en gebruiken voor beleidsontwikkeling, wetgeving en handhaving, (Governing is Looking Forward. Developing and Using Scenarios for Policy-making, Lawmaking and Conservation), Expertiseceentru Rechtshandhaving, Den haag, 2004.12 D. Gosselin, B. Tindemans, Toekomst makers.
De kunst van het vooruitdenken,(Future Designers. The Art of Looking Forward), Lannoo Campus, Leuven, 2010.13 P. P. Sabatier, H. Jenkins-Smith, Policy change and Learning:
Excellent in Europe), TNO-Eindrapport, TNO Inro, Delft, 1998.17 Provincie Limburg, Limburg, een generatie verder. 4 scenario's over demografie, economie en milieu
(Limburg, One Generation Further. 4 Scenarios on Demographics, Economy and the Environment), Maastricht, 2006.18 Provincie Limburg, Provinciaal Omgevingsplan Limburg.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (2008) 369 387.26 J. Schoonenboom, Toekomstscenario's en beleid,(Scenarios and policies), Beleid en Maatschappij
M. B. A. van Asselt, Practicing the scenario-axes technique, Futures 39 (6)( 2006) 15 30.31 M. Van der Steen, M. van der Vlist,
Lessons from a scenario and roadmapping exercise on manufacturing systems Cristiano Cagnin a b,,*Totti Ko nno la c adg Joint research Centre for Prospective and Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Seville, Spain b Center for Strategic studies and Management
Innovation International foresight Roadmapping Scenarios Vision-building A b s T R A c T Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences,
Ko nno la et al. 15 claim that stakeholders'diversity1 is important to foster innovation capabilities through the creation of viable alternatives (scenarios) that escape the existing dominant designs
Four scenario snapshots of possible states of the future by 2025 were developed. Based on these the IMS2020 Vision was defined.
The meetings conducted during crucial phases such as the scenario formulation and the definition of a common vision for the roadmapping work.
T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 31 3. 2. Scenarios and joint vision A more in depth analysis of the findings of the state of the art and expectations
The results were the basis for the selection of the variables used to develop the scenarios within the IMS2020 project.
The scenario work was devised and coordinated by JRC-IPTS. Project partners were engaged throughout this activity with support from JRC-IPTS.
but most importantly to scan dimensions used in previous scenario and roadmapping projects; 2. Linking the findings of previous projects and research with the results of the mapping, the interviews and the first online survey.
5. Positioning the scenario snapshots within the defined framework. At first, JRC-IPTS proposed that the snapshots to be developed should be those at the corner of each quadrant.
Fig. 3. IMS2020 scenarios. 7 Microsoft Sharepoint Workspace is a desktop application designed for document collaboration in teams with members who are regularly off-line
In a second stage and after approval of the defined scenario snapshots by all project partners and IMS regions, including the roadmapping support group,
project partners had to assess all features within each snapshot scenario with respect to the likelihood and desirability of these becoming reality by 2020.
and an edited book. 4. Revisiting the principles for global foresight The IMS2020 scenario and roadmapping process shed light on some of the challenges that arise
Finally, it supported the scenario and roadmapping work which had to be adapted in order to closely involve partners during a period of almost two months.
This enabled the selection of the variables used to jointly develop the scenarios, which also used inputs from the online surveys and the wiki open consultation.
and cultures The most critical stage during the project was the scenario and vision building.
This is because none of the partners beyond JRC-IPTS were acquainted with foresight and the alternative processes for building scenarios, joint visions and roadmaps.
workshops) Use of common foresight with emphasis on expected impacts Literature review Online survey for the collection of ideas Scenarios and joint vision Multiple scenarios for synthesising drivers inputs in various forms
to identify key elements for the joint vision Multiple approaches to develop scenarios Online elaboration of scenarios
The meetings were dedicated to the crucial phases such as the scenario formulation and the common definition of the vision for the roadmapping work.
For instance, during the scenario building process, further clarification was needed, which required returning to previous discussions, clarifying decisions already taken and, most importantly,
Such flexibility was very important during the scenario and vision building processes. In both cases meetings not initially planned were scheduled with selected partners
As mentioned, the scenario and vision building process required considerable behaviour and expectation management. In the first scenario building workshop a discussion of how scenarios could be deployed
and the variables to be selected had to take place. Rather than having partners developing scenarios as planned,
the first workshop had to be downscaled and Table 2 Interacting with stakeholders. Stakeholders Selection process Type of network Methods for engaging
. Since there was only one extra workshop planned for the scenario work, JRCIPPT proposed a different approach than the one decided at the kickoff meeting:
After all developed scenarios were approved by partners and stakeholders the second planned workshop was devoted to develop a common vision.
such as the one mentioned for developing scenarios and a shared vision. As for results, these have been adapted for use by the European commission
At the same time, the way in which the scenarios, the shared vision, and the final roadmaps were presented made it possible for reach out to both the research
The development of scenarios, the vision building process and the final roadmaps included not only expectations, needs and viewpoints from the IMS region,
and appropriate funding mechanisms. 5. Conclusions The IMS2020 scenario and roadmapping process shed light on how future global collaborative research
Milano, March 2010.26 C. Cagnin, Scenarios Snapshots and IMS2020 Vision. Deliverable D2. 2. of IMS2020, Project Number 233469,2009. 27 A. Rolstadas, IMS2020 roadmap for sustainable manufacturing research, in:
Moreover, other Foresight methods such as horizon scanning, scenarios, customer and technology trend analysis, and roadmapping are used commonly for the identification of technological opportunities and exploration of possible future markets in this respect.
imagine and create‘future TV experience'-scenarios. The probe consisted of seven small assignments/questions, one for each day in a week.
The second phase (strategic diagnostic) combines a method for analysing business environments (SWOT analysis) with a method for constructing scenarios (the Global Business Network.
The combination of SWOT and GBN stimulates joint reflections on the future in terms of scenarios i e. the way in which strengths and weaknesses, both internal (firm) and external environment, including value chain),
Moreover, the scenario development process should become an important contribution to organisational learning 28. The third phase (cascading strategy into operational actions) was conceived based on the original structure of the BSC.
here the results of the Strategic Diagnosis (second phase) will be analysed in terms of its impacts on alternative scenarios.
and feedback mechanisms (phase 4) did not generate new strategies (phase 1). Once such link could not materialise it was not possible to develop scenarios based upon strategic diagnosis (phase 2),
The analysis of strengths and weaknesses (SWOT analysis) stimulated an important reflection in terms of the future via the application of the Global Business Network scenarios.
since these have not been considered in the scenarios and projections for the years to come. 3. 3. An example from the not for profit sector 3. 3. 1. Rationale The third case was selected due to the growing importance of the third sector in Brazil and worldwide.
This is true even in stages one would believe to be otherwise, like in the development of scenarios, in the construction of strategy maps or in the strategic management of initiatives.
26 Analysis of scenarios 68 Performance Prism 33 The balanced scorecard fails because of difficulties that are encountered during the implementation phase 1,
P. Schwartz, Plotting Your Scenarios, Global Business Network (GBN), San francisco, 2004.28 C. W. Choo, Environmental scanning as information seeking and organizational learning, Information Research 7
lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on manufacturing systems, Futures (2014)( forthcoming. 52 M. G. Lipe, S. E. Salterio, The balanced scorecard:
combining external and internal scenarios to create strategic foresight, Management Decision 43 (2005) 360 381.69 M. J. Epstein,
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011