scenario analysis, technology forecasting, roadmapping, and backcasting or the above-mentioned s-curves, Delphi studies and mathematical models. Thus, it supports companies'efforts to sense change
including methodologies combining scenario analysis, multi-issue actor analysis, roadmapping and target costing 39, business modeling and future studies.
, scenario analysis, multi-issue actor analysis, roadmapping Project 2. 3 Thematic innovation radar Identifies new technologies, trends and topics in a predefined thematic field Project 2. 4 Working group Provide a setting to explore future topics
multipath mapping (Robinson and Propp, 2006) Scenarios Scenario management, quantitatively based scenarios, different emphases and dark scenarios (Punie et al.
threats) and scorecard analyses (Sripaipan, 2006), analytical hierarchy process, data envelopment analysis, multicriteria decision analyses Combinations Scenario-simulation (gaming),
The methods combined bibliometric analysis, an online survey and a scenario building in order to better understand the factors involved in the initiation and spread of emerging diseases.
The scenarios revealed an EID lifecycle model, which helps to understand how technology can be used to combat EID at every stage of their lifecycle.
Dark scenarios as a constructive tool for future-oriented technology analysis: safeguaard in a world of ambient intelligence (SWAMI.
This paper discusses the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool for future-oriented technology analysis activities, such as technology foresight and scenario building.
and synthesis Workshop Cross-linkages With policy Themed Scenarios Extranet Peer review Discussion groups Updated database Finalised Themed Scenarios Final database Reports and multimedia Output data analysis phase
and Public policy February 2010 16 weak signals and wild cards that may be used to assees the robustness of results that may come from other forward-looking tools as planning, scenarios and quantitative modelling.
and scoping device for specific strategic forward looking activities (as scenario building, technology assessment and other foresigght) By repeating the scanning on a regular basis more insight can be gained on the impact of these activities
The project succeeded in defining scenarios for the creative content industries, offering distinct trajectories and raising different policy challenges.
The use of the scenario technique turned out to be essenttial as was the mix of both open participatory and restricted process elements to tackle sensitive policy issues.
a sector analysiis a Delphi survey, a scenario process leading to an analysis of issues and a final policy analysis.
This fed into the scenario developmeent which was based on the close involvement of a restricted number of experts.
through a validattio workshop where stakeholders from the varioou creative content sub-sectors and policy-makers were invited to give their views on the scenarios devellope
The Delphi was meant to help reduce the uncertainntie associated with some of the impacts we came across in the analysis. Sector Analysis Realtime online Delphi Scenario development Policy analysis Issues analysis ICT key trends Trends in actor behaviour Transformation pressures in the CC
value chain Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Policy implications Drivers, enablers, threats contextual factors Consensus vs controversial issues Scenario analysis
23 The scenarios aimed to synthesise the insights about potential impacts (including the differences in opinion about the impacts of some trends.
In order to tackle the diversity of the creative content sub-sectors, the scenarios addressed two levels, namely the creative content sector in general and specificities of at least some sub-sectors.
After the scenario stage, we extracted‘key issuees 'which in the end made up the main dimenssion for the overall impact assessment.
In addition, as neithhe of the two possible future developments seemed to be more likely than the other it was necessary to add the (originally unforeseen) scenario process
This information served as input for our subsequent scenario development. The following issues turned out to be the most controversial:
Design of scenarios for the future The sector analysis carried out as the first step of the process
and complemented by the Delphi survey served as an input for a scenario building workshop. The addition of a scenario process emerged at that point as a necessary new building block to our adaptiiv foresight methodology.
A few selected experts with a background in the creative content industries and/or scenario building were invited to join the projeec team for a two-day workshop.
It started with a general brainstorming on global trends and other socioeconomic considerations that may characterise the context in
As a second step possible dimensions for the scenarios'axes were discussed and an agreement was reached on the two dimensions that would characteeris meaningful and sufficiently differentiated scenarios.
Split into smaller groups, the participants were asked to sketch a storyline and identify the key characteristics of their respective scenarios.
The projeec team completed a full-blown scenario descriptiio with the input from all participants after the workshop because of time constraints.
Four future scenarios In developing the four scenarrio the workshop participants considered the impaac of ICT innovation, user behaviours and other factors on the transformation of the creative content industries.
the four scenarios differ qualitatively from one another. We considered the framework conditions and technoloogica characteristics (e g. magnitude of sunk costs) that determine economic relations in the creatiiv content sector, on the one hand,
therefore those for positioning the four scenarios (see Figure 4). The boundaries between the scenarios are fixed not.
) were derived therefoor as the axes used to define the four scenarios: Incumbents take it all:
a situation where all Figure 4. Positioning of the four scenarios Competitive business environment Oligopolistic business environment Negative public attitude towards creative content, lack of demand Positive public
intermediate scenario between the previous two assuming that the creatiiv content sector is transformed rather than revolutionised.
Each scenario was described focussing on common elements like global context, infrastructure, practices of content production, distribution and use,
and interacction The scenarios led to a modification and further specification of our initial list of issues relevaan to the assessment of the impact of future sociotecchnoeconomic trends on the sustainability of the creative content sector.
Analysis of issues The fourth step of our methodology consisted of the analysis of the scenarios with a view to identifyyin issues that may have an impact on the future sustainability of the sector
To structuur our discussion we followed the common elemeent used in step 3 to systematically describe our scenarios (global context and key drivers
We therefore not only presented the scenarios'broad outlines but we also highlighted those key featuure likely to have implications for factors such as industry structure,
players'strategies or the legal environnment should a particular scenario be realised. This approach was very helpful for stimulating discusssions
they assessed the outcomes of the varying scenarios differeently Thus, the workshop was successful in identiffyin problem areas,
which scenario were to be realised, with varying consequences for the developmmen of the creative content industries, in particcula in terms of growth, jobs, social inclusion or cultural diversity,
Even though the scenarios reflect differrent often contradictory trends and uncertainties about the future of the creative content industry,
a number of important issues can be highlighted by looking across the scenarios. These issues may be technological,
which facilitates the potentially positive developments identified in some of the scenarios, while protecting citizens and consumers from the potential disadvantages.
for instance by adding a scenario development phase late on in the project. This becaam necessary because the range of possible futures turned out to be broader than was expected initially.
As to the adequacy of the methodology for shapiin a vision of the creative content sector as such, we can conclude that the process helped raise key issues and controversies relevant to the sector as depicted by the four scenarios.
as reflected in the scenarios, the extent to which quality is expected to determine the future of several segments of the creative content sector.
Andreas Gräfe and Robert Hauser (all from the Reseaarc Center Karlsruhe, ITAS, Karlsruhe) for their contributions to the scenario building exercise.
scenarios and other means to raise awareness Reframing the debate: i e. suggesting or presenting a new action plan
literature reviews, scenarios, brainstorminng and expert panels. The most striking result is the popularity of the four methods:
and sub-national foresight exercises, followed by scenarios, analysis of trends and drivers and research priorities. There were also interesting differences observed.
and scenario approaches used by their host department to help the government itself establish its longer term strategies.
and in combating EID were identified first by bibliometric analysis, online survey and scenario planning. Roadmaps of these technologies were built then.
Four scenarios and six technology roadmaps for the region were developed. The results show that many future technologies will converge to become most effective in dealing with biosecurity and EID.
a face-to-face workshop for scenario planning was organized. Nano Bio Info Nanobiosystem (e g.,, nanostructured drugs) Nano-Informatics (e g.,
Information flow through the two phases of the project is shown in Figure 2. Scenarios We used scenarios in attempts to develop internally consistent stories about possible futures (Tegart and Johnston,
and beyoond Thirty three experts from seven economies met in Thailand in February 2007 to develop scenarios for the future of EID in the Asia-pacific region.
and the uncertainties influencing these drivers were considerred Self-consistent scenarios were constructed then for an agreed time in the future.
or reduce the impact of the crisis as described in each scenario. Technology roadmapping The structure of the roadmaps used in this study was designed by adapting from the generic format of a product/technology roadmap (Phaal et al.
I Scenario planning Online survey Literature review+Bibliometric Analysis Aim to discuss longer term perspective to enhance the region's capacities that contribute to the successful prevention
Results and policy impact/implications Scenarios and EID life cycle model The scenario workshop listed key drivers for EID in the areas of social, technology, economics, environmeent and politics (STEEP.
These resulted in the followiin four distinctive scenarios: Scenario 1: Malaria in Miami 2017. In February 2015, a family arrives in Miami, Florida from tropical Latin america.
A little girl was infected with an unknown strain of malaria. She had been bitten by carrier mosquitoes. There is no experience
Scenario 2: 20,000 people now confirmed dead from mystery disease. Recently, 20,000 people in Bangkok have been reported dead from a mystery disease
Scenario 3: Mysterious death Mysterious deaths were occurring in almost every economy around the world. 5000 people were reported to have been infected by the virus. The death rate was low
Scenario 4: Emerging rainforest syndrome. An epidemic, of unknown cause, occurred in ten countries. After tracing back for two years,
The scenario discussions revealed an EID life cycle model (see Figure 4), with four stages from preventiiv measures to surveillance and detection to treatmeen and prevention of spread.
Since the scenario workshop, this EID life cycle model has been employed throughout the project as the structure for discussions in the technology roadmapppin workshops in both Japan and Chinese Taipei and the final symposium in Bangkok.
Technology roadmaps Using inputs from the scenarios and the EID life cyclle experts at the following first technology roadmapppin workshop have identified key domains of technology research, namely ubiquitous computing, treatments,
Conclusion Bibliometric analysis and scenarios have been used to study the factors involved in initiation and spread of EID within the framework of the EID life cycle model.
The specific combination of methods (bibliometric analysis, online survey, scenario, and technology roadmapping) bears interesting potential and advannce important methodological issues in FTA.
The scope and focus were developed further into the context of the future by scenario planning, in
Paper presented at the APEC Scenario Workshop on Converging technologies to combat EIDS, held at Khao Lak, Thailand.
have been supplemented by alternative analytical methods (e g. archetype reseaarch personas, scenarios, proxy technology assesssmen etc. from various disciplines (e g. design, foresight, fault tree analysis, anthropology etc.
In the pilot study, a photo-download application was for example devellope to simulate different download times (ranging from 0 to 5 second scenarios.
who were asked to indicate those scenarios that were accepttabl to them (for a good experience) in a mobiil context. 3. Monitoring of Qos parameters during use.
In this stage, the respondents tested the selected applicatiion Several usage scenarios had to be carried out,
By using several scenarios, the influence of repeated tests was minimized. The test users were not aware that the signal strength was manipulated. 4. Post-usage questions on device (e g.
Immediiatel after the completion of each scenario, the test users were asked to fill in a short experiennc questionnaire of six questions (five-point scales),
In such a scenario new applications that are tested in the natural environment would therefore only be an additional layer on top of the‘domesticated'netwoork and devices.
The scenarios that have been developed provide important insights into organisational options for international science and the roles that science, including the social
Studies, scenario planning, workshops, and electronic tools, among other tools, are applied in order to revise and transform mind-sets,
The timeline tool was chosen as an alternative to the method of scenarios, because the uncertainty and compleexit of the environment demanded an approach which offered stakeholders a tool for collective reasoning without the need to definine strategies or elaborate decisions,
as the method of scenarios normally requires. A‘timeline, 'as conceived in this case, is the representation of a temporal sequence of possible future events,
As an alternative to conventional scenario methods the timeline was an interesting option. The idea was to explore existing knowledge and the different possibilities,
and create a fuzzier vision than scenario building permits. If we look at the past, it is clear that a great change is anticipated often by a series of micro-events, often not perceived.
The timeline tool was used also as an alternative for scenario planning. The guidelines used in the process include:.
Godet, M. 2001) Creating Futures Scenario planning as a Strategic management Tool. Washington: Economica. Habegger, B. 2010)‘ Strategic foresight in public policy:
when identifying grand societal challenges as well as in translating an already identified grand challenge into an operational reality by defining scenarios,
Disruptive trends, events and scenarios explored in prograamme and projects and related findings, often prove difficult to transfer to potential users.
In this context, scenario work seems to allow fairly flexible frames for such overarching discussions, whereas a number of other methods are applied to develop future plans and action-oriented recommendations for decision-making.
2012) Addresses spatial dimension in gradual transformation, combining both reactive and deliberate approaches in scenario work that integrate spatial dimensions of urban planning Elements of different modes of governance addressed.
Identifying weak signals and developiin scenarios are crucial tools in preparing for the unexpeccted thus enabling a clearer understanding of possible pathways to tackle the challenges,
Scenario-based monitoring not only applies to the problems and challenges ahead, but also to the FTA systems that are already in place.
scenarios; International council for science. 1. Introduction Responses to grand challenges, if they are to be effective, will depend on science.
while the issues covered and various scenarios developed can be adapted and updated to suit the needs of multiple users.
a scenario approach that captures multiple futures was embraced. The exercise was led by ICSU's Committee on Scientific Planning
a scenario approach was preferred from the outset, allowing for exploration of possible futures and for articulation of a visionary‘success scenario'..
'Scope: While the exercise was intended to increase ICSU's organisational agility and to develop a guiding vision for the organisation,
including an online survey, two expert-led scenario workshops, and other consultation processes..Participation: Foresight exercises usually demand broad participation for their success
As a consequence, the results generated in the later stages of the project (essentially the visionary success scenario) have shaped perhaps not ICSU's new strategic plan to the degree that was planned originally
Build exploratory scenarios from the key drivers and conduct a broad consultation with the same range of parties identified for the previous phase..
and exploratory scenarios to develop and validate a visionary‘success scenario'of where ICSU should be Going in the process,
conduct a broad consultaation in particular utilising the ICSU General assembly as a forum for member opinions including 170.
M. Keenan et al. views on regional differences on the success scenario and its implications for the ICSU.
a list that was considered too long for building exploratory scenarios. The CSPR applied the following selection criteria to arrive at a list of no more than 15 key drivers:.
Constructing exploratory scenarios. The process of building exploratory scenarios provides a structure in which to explore and learn from the interplay of key drivers and their attendant uncertainties.
The result should be a sense of preferences and of what should be avoided. Scenarios are intended also to offer a platform to expose
and begin to address differing views among a large community about its shared future. For ICSU, such a process was intended to inform collective strategic choices about its future role.
The approach used for building exploratory scenarios in the ICSU exercise broadly aligned with a process previouusl developed by former Royal dutch shell Group staff,
A two-day scenario workshop involving the Task Team was held in April 2010 in order to sharpen the forecasts
and to use them as a basis for developing contrasting explorrator scenarios of the future of international science cooperation.
In a following step, scenarios were developed within four distinct‘scenario spaces'framed by two axes selected from the list of key drivers (van't Klooster and van Asselt 2006.
They should generate distinct scenario spaces that are interesting, useful, and relevant with regard to the future of international science..
All scenario spaces should plausibly be able to include positive and negative traits and thus be presented in a balanced manner.
the first selected scenario axis was based on the‘state sovereignty, regionalism, and globalissm driver. At one end of this axis, countries have oriented a nationnall outlook
While this approach to scenario building has some drawbacks, e g. a certain rigidity that can sometimes stifle creativity,
M. Keenan et al. drivers in an earlier step were mapped now into the four scenario spaces to create coherent storylines.
the exploratoor scenarios were redrafted several times. The CSPR played an important role in further sharpening the scenarrio at its September 2010 meeting, after
making several specific suggestions for improving the scenarios that were incorporated duly. The resulting explorative scenarios,
which are outlined briefly in Fig. 1, offer four distinct, yet plausible images of the future‘world order'and of international science cooperation 20 years from now.
it is a near certainty that none of these scenarios will come to pass as articulated.
Instead, the four scenarios offer subjective storylines intended to stimulate creative thinking and to expand the‘possibility space'on future courses of action.
Developing a visionary‘success scenario'.'Phase 3 saw the exercise shift its focus from preparing exploratory scenarios to the development of Engaged National Global Detached Science for sale in a global market place Globalism driven largely by multinationals An international division
of labour leads to intense specialisation of countries'economies Governments compete to host the R&d facilities of multinationals through large R&d investments Public science focused on basic research that multinationals are less likely to perform themselves Strong global networks
e g. peer review and other forms of self regulation Proliferation of local solutions to societal problems that also utilise‘traditional knowledge'Fewer opportunities for curiosity-driven Research funding for science is on a relative decline Figure 1. Exploratory scenario
'173 a more visionary‘success scenario'intended to help guide the long-term direction of ICSU.
The success scenario approach has been pioneered by researchers at the University of Manchester (see Miles (2005) for an overview)
In the ICSU exercise, the success scenario was drafted by the ICSU Secretariat using the results of a dedicated one-day scenario workshop involving all members of CSPR
The four exploratory scenarios articulated in Phase 2 provided stimulus for more creative thinking on a desirable success scenario
The resulting success scenario has a 20-year time horizon outlining the contours of a desirable state of international cooperation in science in 2031 and ICSU's role in its achievement.
As the success scenario runs to several pages only its general contours are presented in Box 2. Through‘backcasting'from the future success scenario of 2031 to the present day,
a number of practical steps were identified as milestones along the way to achieving this desirable outcome.
These included key roles for ICSU to play in achieving the success scenario by 2031,
The internal impacts of the success scenario are less certain at the time of writing,
there is every likelihood that the success scenario will be adopted formally as ICSU's long-term desirable vision for internatioona science
It was claimed also that the use of exploratory scenarios leads to minority views being given the same status as established scientific knowledge.
3 The impacts of selected wild cards can then be analysed by‘running them through'the success scenario.
and the exploratory scenarios, have been packaged as a resource for member organisations (and others) to use in their own strategic planning or visioning processes (ICSU 2011b).
Already, there is evidence that some member organisations have started to use the exploratory scenarios in this way and ICSU hopes that more will follow
Science Forum in Budapest in November 2011) the explorrator scenarios were picked quickly up and featured in an article in Nature (Macilwain 2011).
This can be taken as a strong signal of the likely interest of the science policy community in the scenarios. 4. 2 Lessons in conducting international foresight Reflecting on the approach taken in the ICSU foresight,
The visionary success scenario outlines what would be happening in international science in 2031 if it was operating in an effective and successful way Science is thriving
Box 2. Outline of 2031 success scenario for international science cooperation. Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.
For example, experiences with international foresight using scenarios have been described by Cagnin and Ko nno la (2011) for the domain of intelligent and sustainable manufacturing,
Notes 1. The German Fraunhofer Gesellschaft (2010) has developed also exploratory scenarios for the future of the European research landscape in 2025.2.
Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006)‘ Scenario types and techniques:
lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems, 'paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, held Seville, Spain, 12 may 2011.
Scenarios for the European research Landscape 2025. Munich: Fraunhofer Gesellschaft. ICSU. 2006) Strengthening International Science for the Benefit of Society:
International Science in 2031 Exploratory scenarios'.'Paris: International council for science. iknow. 2011)‘ iknow ERA Toolkit: Applications of Wild Cards and Weak signals to the Grand challenges and Thematic Priorities of the European research area'.
Miles, I. 2005)‘ Scenario planning',in UNIDO Technology foresight Manual, Vol. 1, pp. 168 93. Vienna: UNIDO.
Ogilvy, J. and Schwartz, P. 1998)‘ Plotting your scenarios'.'In: Fahey, L. and Randell, R. eds) Learning from the future.
European Science Foundation. van‘t Klooster, S. A. and van Asselt, M. B. A. 2006)‘ Practising the scenario-axes technique',Futures, 38:15 30.
therefore Development of scenarios, desirable futures and pathways towards these futures for specific Urban Europe topics Use of a pilot call to improved understanding of future trends
and research needs beyond initial analysis Development of scenarios for long-term urban developments Establishment of an UEF,
Alternatively, current and planned programmes can be checked against alternative future scenarios to test their robustness over time.
scenarios and other relevant data (by dedicating a pilot call to research on such future-oriented issues)
This is the case for example with the horizon scanning services in the UK. 1 Horizon scanning also fulfils similar functions with scenario building.
It may even be used as a highly evidence-based source to provide plausible discontinuities in the development of scenarios.
They usually describe a future narrative or mini scenario that, according to the cited author or source, should be taken into account by policymakers, society and/or research.
Arguably, the growing interest in horizon scanning and further on the apparently greater empirical reliance of horizon scanning over scenario planning reflect the increasing complexity of modern societies which are shaped continuuall by so many uncertainties especially in the social and political spheres.
Bunn, D. W. and Salo, A. 1993)‘ Forecasting with scenarios',European Journal of Operational Research, 68: 291 303.
Some researchers from different areas made use of these approaches and set‘megatrends'as a framework or a driver for their scenarios (Kolz et al. 2012 forthcoming.
< Back - Next >
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011