and shifts in the competitive environment for the preparation of strategic development in an organization, this paper aims to address a structured analysis method for future technology trajectories
who contributed significantly to improving the quality of this paper. certain paths of development (Gavigan and Cahill, 1997;
With this perception, conventional strength, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analyses are informed by the need to maintain these core competences in the face of the development by competitors of their own core competences and key assets (Hax and Majluf, 1996.
or developments that have the potential to affect a company's competitive situation. Ashton and Klavans (1997) also defined three basic objectives for CTI activities:
1. to provide early warning of external technical developments or company moves that represent potential business, threats or opportunities;
and understand S&t-related shifts or trends in the competitive environment as a preparation for organizational planning and strategic development.
and industry development from foresight collected from all over the world. In the foresight experience of small countries such as the foresight activity conducted in Austria named‘‘Delphi Austria,
and analyze future technology development and interactions. 2. Methodological approach 2. 1 Delphi method background Delphi was developed in the 1950s by the US RAND Corporation
and Technology policy Research institute (STEPI) Technology foresight Research team, National research Center for Science and Technology for Development Time horizon 2035 2030 2020 Original category Energy and resources Energy
and contributes to economic development while safeguarding the public interest. In order to keep the IPC codes up to date with the progress of technology development,
statistics regarding the code or advanced analysis can be done easily to compare development or the trajectory among different technology domains.
conversion efficiency South korea Solar and fuel cell power system China Hydropower river basin development with complex conditions; large and very large grid-connected/photovoltaic power plant development in desert 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) 32 (Transport) Japan Polymer electrolyte fuel cells
/vehicle use South korea Material for battery/electric vehicles or transportation; fuel cell/vehicle use; hybrid power system/vehicle use China Hybrid power system VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 63 As shown in Figure 3, technology 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus,
and the related Delphi topics contain‘‘Development of high energy density of the large battery materials for electric vehicles and various transportation use'',Fuel cell vehicles for practical use,
''‘Development of distributed power technology with large-scale use of alternative energy supply'',Development of low-cost and high-purity hydrogen mass production Technology'development of zero emission power generation system
''and‘‘Development nuclear waste processing method that can reduce the size of nuclear fuel after use
The related topics contain‘‘Development of bio-information technology that can use Terahertz in biomedical operation,
''‘Development of simulation technology than can simulate the interaction of living organism with micro-plasma for medical equipment'',The ultra-high-temperature air-cooled nuclear reactors in practical use
''and‘‘Hydropower river basin development with complex conditions''.''In the rest of the linkages, technologies with cross interactions include source technology 23 (Chemical engineering) to application technology 24 (Environmental technology;
or development priorities is different in each country, the technology intelligence demonstrated by this research still needs to be monitored
Improving the quality and robustness of anticipatory intelligence and preparedness for disruptive events through the use of systematic approaches and the development of shared insights and perceptions.
the level of socioeconomic development of the country (ies), region (s), sector (s) or city (ies) in which they are conducted;
whereas Gao et al. 7 propose the development of a new forecasting approach to analysing technology life cycle of a particular technology of interest.
and iii) development of dynamic and adaptive plans and policies that are adequate across the multiplicity of plausible futures.
She explores the role that different types of FTA played in the development of nanotechnology governance in the USA and in Germany.
Just to mention a few key developments: the fast progress of the internet offers new opportunities for participatory projects, of both quantitative2 and qualitative nature;
the development of online models accessible to a whole community, or the engagement of a wider group of participants in data analysis (for the latter, see Cooke and Buckley 7). 3 In this regard,
in order to identify truly alternative future developments and to enhance our capacity to live in an unpredictable world 14,20, 21.
Since its first edition the International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis devoted part of its attention to the development of new tools and methods, novel use of existing methods and (new) disciplines applied by FTA.
For instance, quantitative analysis of this kind offers valuable information for the development of S&t Delphi survey topics,
and are mostly in a development stage, they are nonetheless highly promising and it is therefore important to monitor their development.
Examples of current and upcoming FTA practices Internet-based tools allowing for integration of data of various sorts Online sharing of perspectives on different data types:
linking ecosystem change and human well-being by combining qualitative storyline development and quantitative modelling through several iterations between both parts 44.
it was possible to identify where advancements are needed in terms of model developments. 4. Barriers to integrating FTA METHODS The above taxonomy
In reality, predicting certain elements of a broader system such as demographic developments is not in contradiction in any way with developing multiple futures.
and interacting global development issues 73.393 K. Haegeman et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 reasonable representation of the systems being analysed,
and the development of frameworks that support the selection and implementation of an appropriate combination of qualitative and quantitative methods and tools in a given context, can enhance shared knowledge,
this paper has explored possible barriers hampering such development, and proposed a way forward. Overcoming the barriers identified calls for additional research efforts but also
Research has so far primarily concentrated on the development of innovative ICT tools and of ex-post interfaces,
Guide to Research infrastructures Foresight, European commission, Brussels, 2007.27 F. Scapolo, A l. Porter, New methodological developments in FTA, in:
Cornell University, 1979.55 T. Lawson, Developments in economics as realist social theory, Rev. Soc. Econ. 405 (1996) 422.56 W. K. Olsen, Triangulation in social research:
Developments in Sociology, Causeway Press, 2004.57 A. Sayer, Method in Social science: A Realist Approach, Routledge, London, 1992.
building policy options into a scenario for development in a global knowledge society, Futures 37 (2005) 813 831.74 R. Johnston, Developing the capacity to assess the impact of foresight, Foresight 14 (1
and worked in innovation, education and local development policies. She has experience in quantitative and qualitative research methods
But using the patent application counts alone to represent the development of technology oversimplifies the situation.
A research team from MIT 11 studied the development trends of power transmission technology and aero-engine technology by S-curve modelling.
They suggested considering multiple indicators to measure technological development and to make business decisions. Usually, patent application activity is tracked as a TLC indicator for the S-curve analysis 10,12, 13.
But using patent application counts alone to represent the development of technology oversimplifies the situation. Accordingly, some multiple indicators are used to measure TLC.
So in this paper, we choose the other two indicators to measure the development of technology:
The number of IPC codes represents howmany fields are involved in the development of a technology.
To make clear which indicators are similar with the others in the development trends, we employ a cross-correlation analysis to measure the similarity among the 13 indicators in the four stages.
-TOP10 Fig. 3. Development trends of 13 indicators (TFT-LCD. 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985
MC-TOP10 Fig. 4. Development trends of 13 indicators (CRT. 403 L. Gao et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 398 407 A1 i;
In their opinion, the results fit their understanding for the development of NBS. Therefore, NBS is still in its growth stage (1997 to the present.
Itmeans that there are many technologies still in development, including SPR. Technology managers might informtheir NBS R&d investments by analysing patent application data from 1997 to the present to identify hot research topics or technological gaps.
A thoughtful anonymous reviewer reminded us of the wide range of factors that could change a development trajectory,
and to identify factors apt to alter the course of development that TLC suggests. It is oriented mid-term (i e.,
Rev. 1 (1989) 38 43.12 W. Y. Zhou, Probe into the research of the electric technological development trend of plasma display with the patent index, Ph d. dissertation, Chung
Change 56 (1997) 25 47.15 R. Haupt, M. Kloyer, M. Lange, Patent indicators for the technology life cycle development, Res.
an empirical analysis, Rand J. Econ. 25 (1994) 319 333.26 T. H. Chang, A study on the Technique Development of RFID-Base on life-cycle theory, Ph d
Study on the technique development of TFT-LCD industry-based on patent analysis and life cycle theory, Ph d. dissertation, Chun Yuan Christian University, Taiwan, 2003.30 A l. Porter, J
what may be the clue to understand the modus operandi of devolutiont per se the development of evolutionary algorithms for many different problem-solving and/or theoretical applications.
Among these new capabilities the TFA Methods Working group has identified recently 1 three main converging areas of development:
what makes Darwinism a so controversial and long-lived scientific discipline, still open to further developments and applications. Theorizing about the evolutionary (Darwinian) aspects of technological change is then not merely a question of using metaphors and making analogies,
and will be seed the and/or the substract for the further development of useful forecasting tools in the technological realm.
The development of a working ETTC bears the correct understanding of three difficult-to-define concepts,
T which interprets the whole history of human social, intellectual and material development as the continuation of biological evolution by other means.
I think that some of the above mentioned points are hindering the development of working computational algorithms to simulate technological evolution.
with the convergence of different fields of science toward what may be the clue to understand the modus operandi of devolutiont per se the development of evolutionary algorithms for many different problem-solving and/or theoretical applications.
Cesare Marchetti 10 and Theodore Modis 11 contributed further to this development calling the attention for the closed relationship between the growth
amplified by the development of learning capabilities (we will turn to this point ahead). 3 Following this reasoning we can state then that humans,
and the further development of brain and mind came into life because nature owns the basic structure (then a fundamental law) of over shortcuts to reach easily the goals immediately ahead. 5 Technology is a recent human achievement that flourished conceptually in the 18th century,
's natural selection threw new light on the evolutionary concept of human cultural development. He proposed the natural selection of hypotheses,
growth and development, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 68 (2001) 1 57.13 H. De vries, Species and Varieties, Their Varieties by Mutations, Kegan Paul, Trench Trubner,
their development over time is dynamically complex, and many aspects related to these systems and their future developments are deeply uncertain.
A similar attitude is advocated also by Collingridge 33 with respect to the development of new technologies. Given ignorance about the possible side effects of technologies under development, he argues that one should strive for correctability of decisions, extensive monitoring of effects, and flexibility.
More recently, Brans et al. 34 andwalker et al. 24 developed a structured, stepwise approach for dynamic adaptation.
and requires the further development of specific tools and methods for its operationalization 7. More specifically,
support the development of long-term strategic policies under deep uncertainty, and test policy robustness over. EMA could also be used to develop adaptive policies under deep uncertainty
and (3) the development of an ensemble of models that allows generating many plausible scenarios. It then proceeds with:(
Transition of the energy systemtoward sustainability depends on the developments related to new technologies. Such developments are characterized typically by non-linearity and uncertainty regarding technological characteristics and market adoption 48
49. For example, precise lifetimes of technologies are known not and expected values are used in planning decisions. Also, since the installation of new capacity mostly happens in large chunks,
Each of the economic growth parameters indicated in the third region corresponds to the value of economic development for ten years
and together they constitute the overall behavior of economic development over 100 years. Although it is difficult to interpret the combination of these economic growth parameters,
Since the way in which economic development is represented in this model creates cyclic behavior, a possible corrective action could be to partly decouple the adoption of new technologies from the economic cyclewith the help of subsidies and additional commissioning of newtechnologies.
This paper shows a way in which EMA can be utilized to support the iterative development and refinement of adaptive policies in light of a clear exploration of the multiplicity of plausible futures.
and technology assessment 1. In their own ways each of these approaches is used for analyzing technological developments and their potential consequences.
and what is the range of plausible future dynamic developments of a phenomenon of interest?
Under what circumstances can we expect which dynamic developments? Because of this focus, EMA stimulates‘out of the box'thinking
and can support the development of adaptive plans or policies. EMA is first and foremost an alternative way of using the available models, knowledge, data, and information.
the debate can then shift to the development of policies or plans that produce satisfying results across the alternative sets of data.
The second case shows how EMA can be used to develop adaptive plans for guiding airport development.
Airports are a major driver for regional and national economic development. Future uncertainty is increasing because contextual conditions are less stable,
Recent contextual developments constitute a backdrop of change for the Dutch electricity system. Institutional change driven by liberalization, changing economic competitiveness of the dominant fuels, new technologies,
and changing end-user preferences regarding electricity supply are some examples of these developments. EMA is used to explore plausible transition trajectories in the face of these developments given technological uncertainty about investment and operating costs,
and fuel efficiency of various alternative technologies; political uncertainty about future CO2 abatement policies such as emission trading;
for it implies that crises may be difficult to predict based on the monitoring of various exogenous developments.
or prevent certain undesirable dynamics. 3. 2. Adaptive planning for airport development The air transport industry operates in a rapidly changing context.
Amsterdam Airport Schiphol has been working over the last couple of years on a plan for guiding its long-term development 37,38.
The purpose of EMA in this case is to help in the development of an adaptive plan for the long-term development of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol that is robust across the wide variety of uncertainties experienced by the airport. 3. 2. 1. Model
or by modifying the stricter slot allocation regime. 3. 3. Identification of plausible transition pathways for the future Dutch electricity generation system Recent contextual developments constitute a backdrop of change
and changing end-user preferences regarding electricity supply are some examples of these developments. In this case
we use EMA to explore plausible transition trajectories in the face of these developments given technological uncertainty about investment and operating costs,
Various alternative developments for these uncertainties are specified. The consequences of each of these alternative developments are assessed using an agent-based model 45 of the Dutch electricity system.
The outputs are analyzed using CART 46, a classification tree algorithm, in order to reveal arch-typical transition trajectories
that there is a limited development of non-fossil generation, suggesting that under most uncertainties a transition towards more sustainable generation does not take place.
we also conclude that under most developments, the future generation of energy will not be very sustainable.
whether EMA can be used to facilitate the development of robust strategies even in the presence of many Table 6 The major uncertainties and their ranges.
The second case demonstrates how EMA can be used for guiding decision-making on plans that shape the long-term development of an airport.
Een Wereldwijd Netwerk Voor een Concurrerende Randstad Long-term vision on the Development of the Mainport Schiphol, 2007.38 Luchtvaartnota Rijksoverheid, in:
Chang. 77 (2010) 34 49.49 S. J. Heblij, Development of a runway allocation optimisation model.
Thesis, 2004.50 S. J. Heblij, R. A a. Wijnen, Development of a runway allocation optimisation model for airport strategic planning, Transportation Planning and Technology 31 (2
For instance, developments in science and technology have a strong potential to influence social change. There are, however, many reasons why the practical use of scientific knowledge
and governments deal with international scientific developments in different ways through the policies they pursue 14.
The development of innovation theory over the past decades has involved a major reformulation, with innovation no longer seen primarily as a process of discovery,
the development of scenario practice as a methodology for planning and decision-making probably started more than half a century ago in the field of war game analysis. The Rand Corporation in the US became a major center for scenario thinking and Herman Kahn,
which look at what will happen as the likely development occurs. By contrast, What can happen?
Trying to find the most likely development The eventualities mode Possible futures Openness to several different developments The visionary mode Preferable futures Envisioning how society can be designed in a better way 435 P
In addition, our analysis indicates that scenarios with a strong focus on consensus during the development are often too vague and too broad for defining tangible innovation opportunities.
PROSPECTIVE Environmental analysis of Land use Development in Europe. 437 P. De Smedt et al.//Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The images of the future are focused on key internal developments
(i e. inward reflection) and often driven by technology or changes in our way of living.
As a result of these two developments we argue that the difference between experts and the wider public has become less relevant
investigating and utilizing potential future societal changes and developments, see also 62,77. To synthesize this section on results and implications,
and optimize technological development Allows minimizing inconsistencies and defining areas for innovation Weak on complexity of socio-technological systems Evolutionary Interaction Engage in sustainable pathways enabling transformations of innovation systems Allows a systemized negotiation process linking a variety of social actors
investigating and utilizing potential future societal changes and developments. This integrated approach, i e. integrating different modes of futures thinking, is needed for orienting innovation along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems.
climate change, food security, rural development, agricultural knowledge systems. The 2nd SCAR Foresight exercise. Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available at http://ec. europa. eu/research/agriculture/scar/pdf/scar 2nd foresight exercise en. pdf 6. 3rd SCAR Foresight exercise EC (2011), Sustainable
European commission DG RTD, Directorate E Unit E. 4, Brussel. 7. Prelude EEA (2006) Prelude (PROSPECTIVE Environmental analysis of Land use Development in Europe) scenarios.
development of a research paradigm, in: L. V. Shavinina (Ed.),The International Handbook on Innovation, Pergamon, London, UK, 2003.
) have played in the development of nanotechnology governance. In the US, FTA has been used to create visionary concepts
Governance Emerging technologies Key enabling technologies Nanotechnology Public engagement Foresight Technology assessment Responsible research and innovation 1. Introduction As science and technology become more central to economic development,
and development and Germany established its public funding program. Understandingwhat nanotechnology is and howit is governed requires first focusing on the governance processes associated with its development
and then recognizing that the Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 444 452 E-mail address:
The paper analyzes the role that different types of future-oriented technology analysis played in the development of nanotechnology governance.
What are the contributions of the distinct future-oriented approaches to the development of nanotechnology governance?
Today, future governance is seen as crucial for the development of nanotechnology 16.2.2. Approaching the future of nanotechnology:
and Development in The next Decade 1. Vision building at this stage was accompanied by early cooperation and coordination between and among agencies and departments of the federal government.
engineering and technology research and development from the approximately $255 million it spent in fiscal year 1999.1.
entitled Nanotechnology research Directions for Societal Needs in 2020 3 combined retrospective and future-oriented analysis documenting developments in nanotechnology from 2000 to 2010
they address R&d (Advance a world-class nanotechnology research and development program), innovation (Foster the transfer of new technologies into products for commercial and public benefit),
and the supporting infrastructure and tools to advance nanotechnology) as well as risk governance (Support responsible development of nanotechnology) 45.
safety and societal impacts of nanotechnology as environmentally responsible development of nanotechnology 46 and to develop risk governance for nanotechnology 42.
A broader concept of responsible development of nanotechnology in general was developed not (only the identification of risks for safe and responsible handling) 52.
One of the recommendations published in the Nanokommission's final report in 2011 is that the German federal government should establish a national cross-departmental internet platform providing information on developments and activities in the field of nanotechnologies 51.
the BMBF did not report similar activities. 4. 3. Governance structures Beside many parallel developments in the US and Germany,
IWGN workshop report, Vision for Nanotechnology research and Development in The next Decade, 1999.2 BMBF, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, in:
Historical development vs. global expansion, in: F. Jotterand (Ed.),Emerging Conceptual, Ethical and Policy issues in Bionanotechnology, Springer, Netherlands, 2008, pp. 43 63.13 P. Schaper-Rinkel, Governance von Zukunftsversprechen:
Stud. 28 (2007) 1243 1264.16 M. Roco, The long view of nanotechnology development: the National Nanotechnology Initiative at 10 years, J. Nanopart.
Washington. 46 M. C. Roco, Environmentally responsible development of nanotechnology, How the U s. Government is Dealing with the Immediate and Long-term issues of this New technology, Environmental science & Technology, 2005.
107 112). 47 I. Miles, The development of technology foresight: a review, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 77 (2010) 1448 1456.48 A. Zweck, G. Bachmann, W. Luther, C. Ploetz, Nanotechnology in Germany:
and print media 2. stepwise clustering of the findings into visions in interaction with innovation actors through interviews and an online survey 3. development and assessment of scenarios of future innovation landscapes 4. generation of policy implications.
Consistency of the development of different signals was emphasised not. This approach attempts avoiding the exclusion of situations that seem illogical
Both interviews and survey were referring directly to the weak signals without introducing any assumptions on the socioeconomic context or causalities among the respective developments.
Actors who considered a structural change as a positive transition werewilling to be involved in the further development of the visions.
Her scientific interests are innovative approaches of scenario and roadmap development. As a mechanical engineer she has conducted various foresight projects on future prospects for industrial production and on research and innovation patterns on behalf of government authorities
the technologies that they address are generally developments of well-known domains. Articulation is of course within the context of a defined phenomenon
They use an analytical framework that they call the‘‘Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM)''to make the case for the convergent development of innovation
and practice that made up the 2011 FTA conversation in the light of subsequent developments.
and concepts such as adaptive foresight 5 and systemic foresight 6 have been suggested for the development of more tailored foresight processes.
evidence refers to reliable documentation, such as statistics and indicators or forecasting of economic development through macroeconomic modelling.
In two prospective plans (Perspektivplan I and II) from 1971 and 1974, the government analysed social trends and developments 15 and 20 years ahead for the public and private sectors, respectively.
In this study, technology foresight was defined as‘‘dialogue activities and analyses of long-term developments in science, technology, economy and society with the aim of identifying technologies which may have economical and/or societal significance''29.
A technology foresight programme was established with the centre-left government's 2000 business development strategy 30. The strategy contains the following statement:‘.
and the project was placed initially in the then Danish Agency for Business Development. A pilot programme for foresight was launched early in 2001.
The initiative should identify the research needs created by societal and business developments as well P. D. Andersen,
Innovation and competitiveness Denmark's competitiveness Innovation The public sector of the future Knowledge and education Education, learning and competence development What works?
Due to the low degree of power distance in Denmark, major societal stakeholders expect to be involved in the development process of national research policy strategies.
Managing New technology Development, Mcgraw-hill, USA, 1994, pp. 287 314.19 G. Hofstede, Cultural dimensions in management and planning, Asia Pacific Journal of Management 1984
and developments in the contextual environment are connected. In addition, scenario analysis is the systematic analysis of a variety of uncertainties combined into distinctive stories about the future (see 2). In this article
the consideration of scenario analysis as a method includes both the development and the use of scenarios.
because they may be involved in the development phase of scenarios as well as the usage phase of a foresight study. 2. 2. Methods
each in the context of the development of a strategic environment plan (see 16, 17), that was developed for the first and second Limburg environment plan (covering a long term vision
In the development process of the first environment plan, qualitative scenarios were developed by an external organisation in a broad participatory process.
In the development of the second plan, quantitative scenarios were produced. Policy-makers from the provincial organisation were involved more thoroughly in the development of the scenarios.
The empirical evidence for this paper is based on three indeept interviews with policy-makers who were involved closely in the development of the scenarios, the analysis of the scenario studies,
and the environment plans. N. Rijkens-Klomp P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 19 The Overschie case involves the development and use of a qualitative scenario analysis as a strategic building block for a new strategic coalition
programme for the new governing board 20. In depth interviews were conducted with the four members of the municipality management team
In the case about The hague, a scenario analysis was carried out by 16 civil servants of the Department of Urban Development,
The scenarios were used to reflect on the strategies of the city council's urban development Investment Programme.
16 civil servants evaluated the development process of the scenarios. The two project coordinators of the Investment Programme were interviewed after the development of the scenarios.
In all cases, the scope of the analysis was the future of a territorial entity,
'In each Department (thirteen in total), one interview was conducted to obtain a broad view of how Dutch ministries deal with foresight and organisational development.
which futures research was applied to policy and organisational development. This research approach is different from the research at the local level;
However, he was involved not from within the national government in the development and implementation of foresight methods for policy formation.
The national policy foresight'study showed that studies of the future can be a source of inspiration for the development of new policy ideas, for agenda setting (i e.,
and process-driven motives for using the scenario analysis method in the different phases (see also the distinction between process-oriented and product-oriented development of scenarios 10).
to gain a better understanding of the future of the issue at stake, the degrees of uncertainty involved, the coherence of future developments, the speed of change of developments,
1) signalling new developments, (2) inspiring civil servants to come up with new ideas for policy and strategy,(3) setting the agenda.
and/or developments they consider relevant. Learning to think in terms of alternative futures was seen as an eye-opener, especially at the local level.
Nevertheless, there is a consensus among the same civil servants that there is a definite need to adopt a structured approach to long-term developments.
For example, combining insights from a future analysis with the development of a policy vision and various strategies was seen as a sluggish process.
and facilitating the development and use of scenarios requires skills that were lacking when local organisations decided to conduct a foresight study for the first time.
Policy-makers indicated that they want to remain in control during the development (and use) of the foresight study.
This was due, in part, to the longer duration of the development phase, particularly the time needed to generate support and commitment among policy-makers (and politicians).
because it conflicted with the widely held belief that futures research methods are instruments that speed up the development new strategic policies.
To summarise, at both the national and local levels, a kind of‘future champion'plays an important role in the development of the foresight process and its application to strategic policy-making.
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