At the same time, a spectrum of foresight methods can be applied to develop a better understanding of possible future developments of the systems under analysis 7. In this context
which the exercise takes place supports the development of a common understanding of different, even diverging, viewpoints.
Hence, the further development of transnational research and innovation collaboration benefits from experiences with the vertical coordination of multilayered research and innovation systems.
and (v) innovation, competence development and education. The aim was to identify relevant research topics and the supporting actions needed to shape the future of intelligent manufacturing through international cooperation in each of,
ii) The development of a storyline explaining the interactions between these features; 7. Assessing the developed snapshots.
The results of this exercise were used then as an input for the development of the IMS2020 Vision during a vision building workshop,
could have been justified in the IMS2020 project to gain more insight on the developments of different systems. 10 The mentioned framework has been used by JRC-IPTS in a number of projects
so that partners would feel comfortable with those selected for further development (Fig. 3) . Since there was only one extra workshop planned for the scenario work,
The development of scenarios, the vision building process and the final roadmaps included not only expectations, needs and viewpoints from the IMS region,
It explains the development of a particular variation of a roadmapping technique, the so-called‘multi-path mapping'(MPM) toolset by exploring its prospects
The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises to assess the degree to which they promote the development of‘participatory knowledge societies.'
These include horizon scanning (e g. of weak signals), strategy setting, development of corporate visions, portfolio analysis, and as an aid in the management of supply chains.
Her job is to contribute to the development, implementation and monitoring of the JRC work programme in support to the JRC's mission to provide scientific and technological support to the European community Policy making.
development and innovation 7. Users are seen as important sources of knowledge and co-shapers of the innovation trajectory (cf.
Development and Innovation (RDI) activities. Similarly, Participatory Innovation sought to empower people and to create an environment for user innovation in a broad sense 13.
Although firms and development teams usually have certain assumptions and develop visions of the future,
overaan underestimations of technological and social developments, and unanticipated use; the need for accurate insight into and anticipation of user's needs and expectations;
and informing decisionmakking strategic thinking with a long-term vision in the innovation development trajectory''11. Different from more policy oriented institutional Foresight exercises,
IF introduces an inclusive vision development process with longer-term perspective and a strong future component.
Both studies have sought to engage current users at an early stage in the exploration and identification of possible future development ideas
‘In development'shows the number of experts (N=15) that believe this idea is already in development somewhere,
but also considered as being in an already advanced stage of development. This idea was mentioned also by the largest number of respondents.
or more of the digital TV-viewers and is also at a more advanced stage of development.
but is considered to be in a more immature development stage. The current hype surrounding 3dappliccation is shared clearly not amongst the experts.
First of all, user surveys are used traditionally rarely at the early, exploratory stages of the development process and with the purpose of detecting future needs or opportunities.
Technology-driven impulses and developments have resulted in continuously improving sound and image qualities (e g.,, immersive 3d TV experiences), ubiquitous TV experiences via mobile devices, advanced possibilities for on demand viewing, etc.
Idea Market potential now(%)Market potential+5y(%)In development Implemented 5y Virtual digicorder 23.7 48.2 13 13 Visual EPG 13.1 37.7 10
content providers), hardware development, distinguishing characteristics, business models, etc. Additionally, different experts were consulted and asked for their expectations concerning the future of TV and their vision on the future TV user and TV SET of the future.
and simplicity should still be key in the development of future TV experiences. This was the case for all 6 personas, both the positive and the negative personas.
both very advanced users as well as non-expert users are capable of reflecting on possible future developments, their possible impact,
and anticipate possible future developments, needs, expectations,..IF aims to enhance users'input to and their influence on the inclusive knowledge creation process.
Future research should focus on the development of a comprehensive classification and integration of methods that are relevant for IF purposes,
A Qualitative Study on the Domestication of Interactive Digital Television in Flanders,(Unpublished doctoral thesis), Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 2011.32 A. Følstad, Living Labs for Innovation and Development of Information
Such alignment shall take place through the development of a common vision and both joint and individual strategic objectives and related customised operational processes and monitoring systems. 3. Empirical applications:
the mutual learning process between State and citizens'representatives enabled the development of shared decisions, which resulted in the design of more robust and consistent policies that were aligned with local needs.
In this context, the proposed system was implemented to support a rethinking of the institution, its values and its development into a desired future,
Moreover, the use of Commonkads (step 5 phase 3) guaranteed organisational learning to take place based upon the development of new abilities for all involved (teachers, students, community, etc.
These were generated through the development of strategy maps (phase 2), in conjunction with the city of Floriano'polis, SC, Brazil and relevant stakeholders,
This enabled the development of the necessary infrastructure for the venture, as well as provided scholarships for the members of the community.
Hence, the proposed system should improve in terms of its notion of stakeholder involvement to enable the development of a common vision to be pursued across the system,
This is true even in stages one would believe to be otherwise, like in the development of scenarios, in the construction of strategy maps or in the strategic management of initiatives.
In turn, this would foster the development of partnerships based on trust (thus supporting phase 4). S v. Marinho,
Also, such a system shall enable the development of associated collective and individual strategies with related action plans as well as monitoring and evaluation systems.
a development guide, International Journal of Operations & Production Management 17 (1997) 692 704.23 R. Kaplan, D. Norton, Strategy Maps:
Accelerating and Enhancing Pro-Poor Development Opportunities, Institute for Alternative futures, Alexandria, VA, 2009.51 C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la, Global foresight:
The article finishes with concluding remarks. 2. Toward networked foresight 2. 1. Analogies in the development of innovation management and futures research Liyanage 13, Niosi 14 and Ortt and van der Duin 15
and in scientific discoveries and technological knowledge, leading to the development of products and services. 2. Market pull:
and developments that are likely to impact the future of the focal firm and the preparation of adequate measures to react to the various possible futures 22.
The close link between innovation and futures research tempts analogies to be drawn between the historical developments of both concepts as illustrated in Table 1
this article seeks to analyze the apparent next step in the development of futures research: networked foresight. 2. 2. Linking futures research to innovation networks 2. 2. 1. Trends driving corporate innovation toward open innovation processes Innovation, i e.,
, the results of the foresight project challenged existing development projects and led to strategic changes within the company.
First, the close connection between innovation management and futures research and analogies in their past developments hint at networked foresight as a logical next generation of futures research.
and by an awareness of external developments that may influence the organization's future goals and performance. 2. A process model that guides the organization toward the envisioned future. 3. The ongoing innovation processes together constitute a transition path that leads the organization from the present to the future. 4. The inner component leadership
and reveals the stages of development of networked foresight in the different cases. In the case evaluations
monitoring and evaluating relevant societal developments. The future of WINN itself was addressed not within these activities (Table 3). 4. 2. Case 2:
and to forecast newly identified development paths and potential new products and services within WINN Singular activity 1. 4 Series of future workshops Determined relevant societal developments and innovation needs that the activities originating from WINN give rise to Project 5 In 2008
SAG left EICT and Opera ASA joined the network. 6 See http://www. eict. de for more details about EICT.
and evaluate possible future developments within the project boundaries. Thus, the futures research activities within EICT usually address thematic issues in various industries.
and developments in preselected fields, provides images of the future, identifies innovation opportunities and potential for commercialization,
trends and developments in selected fields, establishes a common outlook on the future of ICT
in addition to conceptual work about possible future developments created a kind of‘‘the urgent drives out the important''atmosphere as Henri Kissinger put it.
The latter in terms of identification of relevant developments and strategic guidance. While the setting of WINN has undergone two major changes toward more openness the grounding
EICT's own foresight competences could complement these meetings. 4. The existing foresight activities could be utilized to capture external developments adequately to guide EICT prepare it for the future. 5. Foresight would benefit from additional network partners that add to the existing knowledge base.
Moreover, its thematic focus fields reflect external developments of the market and technological developments. The organizational build up basically a businesslike setup that includes a supervisory board with representatives from the partner organizations
and project teams consisting of employees from the working level helps to capture developments from the various partner organizations on different levels A regular selection
when it comes to external developments. 4. Some activities, e g.,, the action lines (thematic fields) and the selection process, could be applied further to guide the transition path toward an open network that generates excellent research
a portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development, Futures 42 (2010) 380 393.18 F. Phillips, On s-curves
and application of the ways that science and technology contribute to economic and social development, of the possibilities for managing research and technology more effectively,
and the need for further methodology development in this area are highlighted, due to the fact that the project did not lead to direct policy measures.
The methodological framework proposed in this paper is relevant for the development of policies aiming to match technologgica innovations better to societal needs.
In business management the term environnmenta scanning is used to refer to the systematic observation of developments that present either threats or opportunities for the business.
and relatioons knowledge gaps and potential hazardous or promising developments Characteristics of government horizon scanning An analysis of different horizon scanning exerciise and descriptions highlights the following characteristics:
Most of the broader governmental horizon scans were initiated by ministries of defence or their agencies (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centrre 2006;
Horizon scanning on the national level, across all policy areas (including S&t opportunities) is a receen development
and formulate recommendations for the development of international cooperation in horizon scanning, including how it can be used.
reseaarch development and innovation. Identify knowledge gaps (relevant for resolving future problems or for exploiting potential opportunities).
Development of the national horizon scans Data collection All three scans were developed in phases. In the first phase
of 366 proposals from the general Sigma Scan development Activity Engagements Output Scan the scans Categorise data Create the E-database Society
culturral ethical and intellectual quality, stimulate cultural development and cultural expression as long as it does not interfere with other dimensioons increasing the intellectual level in service of the other dimensions;
and Innovation that aims to promoot research and innovation of a high international standard for the benefit of Danish society, facilitating development in economic,
and regional and local communities that asked for help and/or cooperation in the area of horizon scanning and development of future strategies.
if data can be incorporated from scans developed by countries on the other side of the world, at different stages of economic development or with contrasting political (and geopolitical) systems.
Further development of the joint horizon scan On the basis of the experience of the pilot joint horizzo scan and discussions within the established netwoor of interested organisations and interviews with representatives of different directorates of the EC, a proposal
for further development of the joint horizon scan has been developed within the Forsociety Netwoor (van Rij, 2008. This proposal suggests developpin a network of countries
and lead to the joint development of methodologies for using and carrying out the scans. Discussion and conclusion All three scans delivered issue lists which overlapppe considerably
which can be used for different purposes such as R&d agenda setting and the development of more resilient policies.
making sure that existiin scientific evidence is overlooked not or contradiccted with the need to point to potential future scientific developments for
or weak signals for strong impact developments to come. Embeddedness In the UK the horizon scan is embedded in the strateegi function of government
FUTURREG (Futures for Regional development: Report on futures tool, horizon scanning. Availabbl at<http://www. cs. um. edu. mt/gpac1/Teaching/Foresight/Papers/Horizonscanning. doc>,last accessed 1 october 2008.
Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) 2006. The DCDC's Global Strategic Trends Study, 2007 2036, third editiion Swindon, UK:
thus contributing most to the development of the EU knowledge economy. At the same time creativity is a key driver of growth
in order to reach a consensus as to the most likely developments and critical issues for further policy discussion.
Sector analysis The first step in our process is the analysis of the sector in terms of the actors, business models, technollog trends, societal developments,
but they are equally relevant for policy-makers at the point of defining policies in support of the creatiiv content sector development.
In addition, as neithhe of the two possible future developments seemed to be more likely than the other it was necessary to add the (originally unforeseen) scenario process
development of innovative tools for content creation, publication and online access; and increasing pressure on users'attention and increased difficulty to navigate content.
and the open issue of the likely development and importtanc of virtual worlds (like Second Life) and multiplayer online games (like World of Warcraft.
since it could not identiif radically new developments. In this respect the use of techniques to identify weak signals would have improved the farsightedness of the theses
market-related issues (e g. development of new, sustainable business models; and societal sustainability issues (e g. user empowermeent cultural diversity.
which facilitates the potentially positive developments identified in some of the scenarios, while protecting citizens and consumers from the potential disadvantages.
new initiatives to provide incentives for ICT trainiin and skills development; promoting study programmes and curricula combinnin technical, business and creative skills;
facilitating mobile content development; accelerating broadband penetration; developing mechanisms to monitor trends and measure impacts;
Recent developments regarding digital content copyrights will further influence the assessment of this issue. Another important example concerns content quality and,
Creative industries and Development. Repoor TD (XI)/ BP/13. São paulo: United nations Conference on Trade and Development.
Available at<http://www. unctad. org/Templates/Download. asp? docid=4850&intitemid=2068&lang=1>,last accessed 28 january 2010.
technology and innovation program development. Since founding the Office of Technology foresight at the National research council in 2002, he has led
and members of the European community have used to guide their foresight design Quality of products Produce future-oriented materials for the system to use Development of reference materials for policy-makers and other innovation actors More informed science,
repositioning of old ones Establishment of communications structures between innovation actors Support the empowerment of (innovation and futures) systems actors Contribute towards the development of actor identities Foresight provides many opportunities for enhanced
and their changes to system actors Development of significant new ways of thinking about challenges and opportunities Promote collective learning through open exchanges of information
and Denmark National Technology Board and Spain Regional foresight (also identified as countries that had used foresight in more specific applicatiion related to national policy development.
Mcluhan Tetrad Model) Define priority areas for technology policy Survey national technological development Stimulate development in priority areas of technology development and research;
thus stimulate the development in these areas Better understanding the interaction among technologies and realize gains resulting from this interaction Allocate funding for research
steps towards the development of a framework conceptualising the dynamics of‘foresight systems'.'Paper presented at the Second International Seville Seminar on Futuureoriented Technology analysis, held 28 29 september 2006, Seville, Spain.
It emphasizes producctiv interactions between previously separate fields of research and technological development. Such shifts can result in new technological possibilitiies with potentially revolutionary impacts associated with changing innovation patterns, industry structurres and broader developments in society.
It has been proposed that a new paradigm is develoopin in the 21st century based on the combinatiio of nanotechnology, biotechnology,
2004) directed to the application of converging technologies to development of a Europeea knowledge society. This report contains the pragmatic definition:
He was the first director of Chula Unisearch, a business-oriented commerciallizatio unit of Chulalongkorn University and the direccto of the S&t development Program at Thailand Development Research institute.
Vaccine development and delivery can be speeded up using genetics, nanotechnology, moleccula biology and bioinformatics. Moreover, health systems research using social sciences,
Within the scope of existing and new technollog development to combat EID, the study proviide evidence of how the FTA can address societal issues and challenges,
and development (R&d) needed to manage, prevent, or combat EID. To complete the objective in Phase I,
the technology roadmapping technique was applied to analyze the linkage between the development of supporting technologies
development of technologies supporting the requirements; key technical and policy challenges that could Aim to exchange experts'views about the severity of infectious diseases
to combating EIDS Biosecurity and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 48 Table 3. Roadmap for development of EID diagnostics 2007 2012 2013 2017
vaccine development, production and delivery are essential components of any strategy to combat EID and must be supported strongly.
IT is an integral part of developments in all the domains. Modeling: the availability of realistic models can assist policy-makers in developing options for coping with outbreaks
more effort is needed on the development of therapeutic drugs for more effective risk managemment even for those infectious diseases for
and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 50 identification of‘technology roadmaps'that are to be applied to a wider geographical area and more diverse level of technology capacity and socioeconommi development.
and the need for tools to facilitate the integration of knowledge into the increasingly interdisciplinary development process.
it remains difficult to create a meaningful synergy between users and technology in the field of ICT development.
The main contribution of this work involves the development of a‘segmentation forecastting tool for prior-to-launch prediction of adoption potentiial and the development of a blueprint for better introduction strategies for ICT innovations in today's volatile market environment.
This social constructivist vision aims to make technollog development more user-and human-centred. Closely related to the social shaping perspective is the social construction of technology (SCOT) approoac (Bijker and Law, 1992), in
and social groups when it comes to giving meaning to technological development (Haddon et al.,2005; Lievrouw, 2006.
and stimulates the involvvemen of users from the early development stages onwards, this still contrasts sharply with the In current definitions, user-driven innovation refers to the process of collecting a particular type of information about the user:
For example, in the early development stages it is often difficult to transcend users'limited powers of imagination:
development teams are forced now to explore new and interdisciplinary methodological tools. Challenge 2: Integration of knowledge:
Although it is crucial that the user insights generated find their way into the development process,
In this respect it is relevant to mention the gap betwwee Qoe and Qos, two important concepts in the field of ICT development.
The main objective of ROMAS was to generate a set of cross-application research findings that can optimize the integrated development process for new digital products and services.
In the second stage (concept development and evaluatioon) a selection of mobile applications was studied by interdisciplinary research teams in a horizontal layer
and find it difficult to empathize with other users'lifestyyles e g. a 25-year-old reflects only on his daily Innovation-development process Prior-to-launch Post-launch R&d Opportunity identification Concept design Concept development
and evaluation Innovation development and production Test market and piloting Launch Adoption diffusion User diffusion,
and can therefore provide valuable input for technologgica developments. Potential service providers were contacted and sounded out for their interest in Table 2. Final list of 80 (future) mobile applications Finding people with same interests Note taking Reader Mobile payment Traffic jam
i e. mobile news, was selected from the list by the industtr partners for further development despite its limitte appeal to the panel members (Table 4). As the industry partners aimed to test the application
An exploratory investigation of user involvement in new service development. Journal of the Academy of Marketiin Sciences, 30 (3), 250 261.
Strategies and Development, S b Heilesen and S Siggaard Jensen (eds. pp 137 166, London: Hershey (PA.
A New development Strategy. In European Living Labs: A new approach for human centric regional innovation, J Schumacher and V-p Niitamo (eds.
Towards a living lab for the development of online community services. The Electronic Journal for Virtual Organizations and Networks, 10,47 58.
New media design and development: diffusions of innovations v social shaping of technology. In The Handbooo of New Media, L Lievrouw and S Livingstone (eds.
Dealing with dilemmas in pre-competitive ICT development projects: the construction of‘the social'in designing new technologies.
+for firms with less than 200 employees+for firms with low intensity of CIMT use Görg andstrobl (2007), Ireland R&d grants from (Industrial Development Agency (IDA) Ireland and Forbairt
Caliendo and Huber (2005) and Caliendo and Kopeinig (2005) give overviews of recent developments with respect to matching methods. 6. We used a‘biweight kernel'(quartic kernel) for the function G(.)It is defined as follows:
which they address key issues in the development and implementation of FTA in relation to these challenges.
the development and implementation of new approaches to FTA, particularly the application of horizon scanning;.experiences of particular organisations, operating at both national and international levels,
FTA can support the development of knowledge by providing, for example, insights on longer-term developments, the scope and opportunities for shaping futures,
the transition to a sustainabbl society, health and lifestyles, agri-food or the development of new defence tools.
and the interpretation of the resultiin clusters as an important step towards the coordinated development of joint policy measures.
understanndin and preparing for the effects of climate change and the associated development of a decarbonised global economic system:
as well as to the FTA conference more generally, clearly demonstrate there is a growing volume of valuable and appropriable experiennc in the development and application of fta, in terms of both the process and methods and the organisational context in
and much greater experimentation with the development of more horizonnta mechanisms;.embedding an FTA capacity designed primarily not to support incremental change,
Strategic foresight for the National Council for Scientific and Technological development (CNPQ. 3. The value of out-of-the-box thinking in a foresight exercise The concept of out-of-the-box thinking adopted in this paper is related to learning organization theory (Tosey 2005.
FINEP's mission entails promoting economic and social development in Brazil through public funding for the development of ST&I.
and IPR as applied to biotechnology development Validation of results in workshoops final report and disseminnatio of results Nanotechnology Mapping current situation and future trends in S&t in Brazil and in a number of selected nations,
aiming at comparing development of nanosciences and nanotechnologies in selected countries Challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 251 supporting basic and applied research;
the development of innovative services, products and processes; the incubation of firms and the implementation of a technological infrastruuctur in private and public organizations.
The major challenge in the development of prospective studies is to identify which events or change drivers are actually relevant
A number of structuring elements were defined for the development of the prospectiiv timeline. These are presented schematically in Fig. 4 (only the observation dimensions
which provided a clearer vision of the internatioona context of ST&I development and the role of funding agencies.
Figure 5. Methodological process for development of FINEP's SMP. 254. C. C. Nehme et al.
The four phases proposed for the development of the SMP (see Fig. 5) were defined to meet the needs of the process, taking into consideration FINEP's culture and experience in planning and management over the years.
regarding the whole process, from methodology development to the analysis and validation of the results obtained..
built to contribute to the development and validation of the main results of the SMP, with clear attribution of responsibilities.
The development of the FINEP SMP also represented an excellent opportunity for those participating to reflect on the main characteristics of the national ST&I systeem whether good or bad,
Foresight exercises are exposed usually to some dangerrou pitfalls throughout their development. It is imporrtan to note,
2011)‘ Strategic foresight applied to the management plan of an innovation development agency',Technology analysis & Strategic management, 24: 267 83.
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