Impact assessment

Economic impact (4)
Impact (721)
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Impact assessment (106)
Long-term impact (13)
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Possible impact (17)
Potential impact (25)
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Synopsis: Impact: Impact assessment:

However, although only very few impact assessments of foresight exercises have been conducted so far, 6 their actual and traceable influence on decision-making seems to vary to a great extent.

Delphi survey 1. Introduction 1. 1. Background In the last few years, the issue of regulatory impact assessment (RIA) has become very attractive, in particular among European policy-makers.

In contrast to the longer tradition of impact assessment of Available online at www. sciencedirect. com Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Berlin University of Technology, Faculty

10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.004 public activities in research and development, regulatory impact assessment is a policy evaluation mechanism

Among the OECD countries, regulatory impact assessment gained a certain momentum after the publication of the OECD report on best practices in impact assessment 2. The growing interest in RIA in other countries, especially in Europe 3

So far, we observed a strong focus on ex ante impact assessments, because they have been required in the USA for a long time,

Ex ante impact assessment is required to check all possible impact dimensions and to evaluate the likelihood of their realisation and their strengths.

there has been a longer tradition of regulatory impact assessments in the context of technology assessment 6. A rather new

complementing ex ante evaluations 4. Ex post impact assessments are able to evaluate the efficacy and the efficiency of regulatory instruments by measuring

The New approach, confirmed by the recent ideas on European governance, requires the standards to be considered which complement or even substitute governmental regulations in comprehensive regulatory impact assessments

and indeed requires, the inclusion of standards in our analysis. 497 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 Regarding the impact assessment of standards,

where standard impact assessment is part of RTD evaluation, because of the assumption that standards are part of the technological infrastructure

The focus of this paper will be neither on ex post impact assessment of regulations and standards nor on ex ante impact assessments of specific options of regulatory instruments.

However, regulatory impact assessment is the starting point for our contribution. The paper goes one step further and tries to address especially approaches which allow the identification of future fields for regulatory action,

also in order to foster the development of new markets by Blind et al. 8. Besides the tradition in regulatory impact assessment,

and psychologically make Fig. 1. Regulatory foresight vs. regulatory impact assessment. 498 K. Blind/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 496 516 it necessary to anticipate these changes before they become reality 16.

Based on the tradition of regulatory impact assessments and foresight exercises, we define regulatory foresight as strategic activity undertaken by governments

The analysis of regulatory foresight in the narrow sense is based, first, on a broad survey of literature databases and the internet regarding regulatory impact assessments in general,

which play as an important instrument of selfregullation We take the distinction between standards and regulatory impact assessment into account.

it has to be noted that in the field of standardisation we observe only some single ex ante impact assessments,

whereas for regulatory impact assessments we find mainly ex ante exercises, which reflects 1 This focus is caused also by the fact that we rely on results of the project NO-REST(=Networking Organisations Research into Standards and Standardisation),

and in Japan, have been contacted to ask about ongoing impact assessment and foresight activities, which may not be available on their websites or from their press offices.

However, it seems that only some informal small impact assessments have been conducted (e g.,, within informal discussions of participants in standardisation processes.

we will not discuss all methodologies appropriate for performing ex ante impact assessments of regulations and standards.

At the time of writing (March 2007) we can undertake some preliminary impact assessment because the conceptual development and refinement of the MPMS was linked up with an interactive workshop.

10.1016/j. techfore. 2008.02.003 The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises that assesses the degree to

to develop an impact assessment framework based on a‘logic model'approach which links the generic goal of a participatory knowledge society with the reported impacts of framework exercises.

Instead, the impact assessment framework has to be built the other way round, i e. starting from the identification of potential impacts in line with the generic goal before moving‘backwards'to examine the degree to which programme design

An approach for developing an impact assessment framework the foresight system. b: An approach for developing an impact assessment framework the wider environment. 547 E. Amanatidou,

K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 principles that a foresight exercise should adopt

'It can also guide the development of an impact assessment framework. If the system variables turn out to be highly contextual,

then the possibility of building a common impact assessment framework for foresight exercises based on their contribution to a more participatory‘knowledge society'irrespective of their specific context

then it will be possible to construct a common impact assessment framework. This framework should allow for the more sophisticated design

and b. 7. From the impact assessment framework to the logic model The above framework can be enriched further by findings from studies of other foresight exercises in different countries,

Impact assessment framework foresight system (based on the cases of UK, Sweden and Malta. b: Impact assessment framework wider environment (based on the cases of UK, Sweden and Malta.

551 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 Given that all the elements of a foresight system can now be identified,

a logic model approach 18 can be used to build an impact assessment model incorporating the two previous models illustrated in Fig. 3a

attempting to develop the impact assessment framework within each distinct category. For the purpose of the present article, the area of networking

b) coping with greater Fig. 5. An impact assessment framework for foresight systems capable of enhancing a more participatory‘knowledge society'.

The development of a common impact assessment model requires a clear understanding of the way foresight influences specific impact areas.

This model can then direct the development of a common impact assessment framework based on the‘logic model'approach.

given the diverse nature of the impact areas in question, a finer level of analysis needs to be applied to the different areas of the impact assessment framework.

The applicability of the resulting impact assessment framework (s) will then be tested via case studies. 555 E. Amanatidou, K. Guy/Technological forecasting & Social Change 75 (2008) 539 557 References 1 E. Amanatidou,

Research interests include the areas of research evaluation and impact assessment, foresight, national innovation systems and policies, scientific advice for policy-making and risk governance.

or foresighting, impact assessment (FIA) currently under development at VTT. In this methodology, the concept of risk iswidened to consider the risks in the innovation processesmay these be either intra-corporate R&dor highly distributed

The new approach future-oriented impact assessment (FIA) is seen also promising in integrating methodologically risk assessment into the whole innovation process.

One new approach to be integrated in the barometer structure in the future can be oriented the future concept of impact assessment

This approach seeks to combine evaluative ex-ante impact assessment risk analysis, and foresight approach into one anticipatory methodological concept of strategic policy intelligence.

The European commission's requirements for extended regulatory impact assessment provide for an example. Here different ex-ante evaluations procedures have been integrated into one regulatory policy appraisal approach to improve the quality of regulation,

The impact assessment is based on a framework that focuses on three key functions of foresight in relation to policy making:

only the short-term impact assessment can rely on empirical observations, but there are also several indications of likely shortcomings with respect to the medium-and long-term impacts.

After introducing the impact assessment framework and the general process design, objectives and results of the Viennese innovation policy foresight and strategy process and the different impact dimensions will be analysed

For that purpose we use an impact assessment framework that has been developed by Havas, Schartinger, and Weber (2007.

First, we introduce the impact assessment framework (Section 2). Then the main features of the process design (Section 3)

Subsequently (Section 5), the impacts will be discussed along the lines of the impact assessment framework. Obviously, only the immediate and some of the intermediate impacts can be discussed on empiricca grounds,

and its key characteristtics The concluding section will synthesise some of the most interesting insights that could be gained from the experience of the project. 2. Framework for the impact assessment of foresight processes1 2. 1. Changing insights into processes of innovation and policy making

and issues only rather than aiming at solutions. 3. See the study on methods and dimensions of impact assessment by Rhomberg, Steindl,

and key technologies approaches coming to the fore, alongside other tools such as research evaluation and impact assessment.

Impact assessment. Overall, the respondents considered the impacts of the trends they identified high. Over 70%of the trends identified by the participants have high impact on Society and Culture;

Furthermore, high impact assessment is more prevalent among the more highly experienced respondents(>10 years. Likelihood and time horizon assessment.

Impact assessment. The majority of the respondents around the globe considered that more than 75%the trends will have high impact on the STEEP systems.

Impact assessment. Almost all respondents from different Foresight affiliations stated that over 70%of the trends identified will have high impact on the STEEP systems.

Impact assessment. Almost all the survey respondents considered that the drivers will have medium to high impact on the STEEP systems with the large majority of the experienced respondents (73%)considered high impact.

O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 303 Impact assessment. There was a general consensus among all respondents around the globe that around 65%of the drivers will have high impact

Impact assessment. Similar to the patterns observed regarding trends no significant differences were encountered regarding the impact assessment based on Foresight affiliation.

The majority of respondents (around 68%)consider that the drivers will have high impact on the STEEP systems,

%Impact assessment. The majority of the drivers identified were identified as likely to have high impact on the STEEP systems with the rest of the drivers (approximately a quarter of them) likely to have medium impact.

Impact assessment. The impacts of the discontinuities identified were considered to be high by most of the respondents around the globe.

Impact assessment. Around 70%of all respondents from various Foresight affiliations that assessed discontinuities expect high impact.

The other examples are environmental impact assessment (EIA) and strategic environmental assessment (SEA. Both instruments are related to the assessment of the environmental consequences of an activity.

In preparation for the action plan, an ex ante impact assessment was conducted to examine the options for action regarding ITS

The impact assessment combined structurally open and structurally closed methods in a careful and transparent manner. 5. Conclusions Policy interventions in the transport sector have to consider risks and uncertainties,

''Environmental Impact assessment Review, Vol. 25 No. 6, pp. 650-66. Renn, O. 2008), Risk governance. Coping with Uncertainty in a Complex World, Earthscan, London.

In this context, the incorporation of FTA METHODS and tools to lawmaking activities accompanies the growing interest in Regulatory Impact assessment (RIA) by European policy makers.

FTA, in this respect, could also reinforce the development of ex ante impact assessments (the ones performed prior to the enactment of a new legislation,

Ex ante impact assessment is required to check all possible impact dimensions and to evaluate the likelihood of their realisation and their strengths.

Ex post impact assessments are able to evaluate the efficacy and the efficiency of regulatory instruments by measuring

together with the use of scenarios, models and simulations to anticipate the set of possible implications that a new proposed law may produce, bear important similarities with the combination of ex ante with ex post impact assessments.

as a result of a scoping study comparing a series of Impact assessment (IA) exercises and research policy cases within the European commission (EC), identified‘‘a potential gap between the contributions of researchers

Strategic intelligence for an Innovative economy, Springer, Berlin. de Smedt, P. 2010),‘The use of impact assessment tools to support sustainable policy objectives in Europe'',Ecology and Society, Vol. 15 No. 4

or distinctions and often using varying terminology the following basic elements (1) definition of task and system (2) analysis of technology, their applications and framework (3) impact assessment (4) evaluation and development

Her research interests are especially in future-oriented research in linking ecological and social aspects of sustainability and in social impact assessment.

If possible, it can also be valuable to obtain the views of the participants on impact assessment:

This leads us to the second type of technology assessment impact assessment. We especially would like to identify potential hazards

Laying out alternative pathways also raises impact assessment needs. Figure 7 notes possible impacts and issues worth further analyses.

specifically in ex-ante (and ex-post) impact assessment. 5. 1. 2. Misconceptions In order to avoid getting stuck in the circle of epistemological barriers, lack of skills and lack of trust,

He received his engineering degree at Ecole Centrale (Paris). His key qualifications are Sustainability Policy analysis and impact assessment, and foresight studies.

He contributed to several ex-ante and ex-post Impact assessment studies of FP programmes and activities in the fields of Environment, Bio-based economy and Socioeconomic sciences and humanities.

The concept is based on the tradition of regulatory impact assessments and foresight exercises. Regulatory foresight is conceived as strategic activity undertaken by governments and policy-makers responsible for regulatory regimes to shape

The overall aim of the paper is to develop an impact assessment framework for foresight exercises to assess the degree to which they promote the development of‘participatory knowledge societies.'

Requirements analysis, institutional analyses, stakeholder analyses, social impact assessment, mitigation strategising, sustainability analyses, action analyses (policy assessment), relevance trees, futures wheel

The high degree of uncertainty and the flexibility of the methodological approach also demanded that impact assessment

An impact assessment was possible (and necessaary to a varying extent at every stage of the process:

experts) Workshop (stakeholders) Workshop (restricted, client) Impact assessment Figure 2. Overview of methodology building blocks Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010

'which in the end made up the main dimenssion for the overall impact assessment. In our case, these were mainly sub-dimensions of two sustainability dimensions, namely of the‘sociial and the‘economic'ones.

any attempt at environmental impact assessment would have gone far beyond the scope of the project. The policy analysis phase aimed to look not only at the issues as such

Consequently, our impact assessment focused on four categories of issues (technology, regulatory, market and user related), each encompassing a number of sub-issues.

Adaptive foresight in the creative content industries Science and Public policy February 2010 30 With regard to the impact assessment aspect of the methodology

when dealing with a sector in flux and where uncertainties are so high that even experts have trouble imagining impacts (as the strong discrepancies in trend impact assessments show).

management solutions based on robotics Distributed small-scale energy production Remote collaboration products Enabling technologies Methods and processes for environmental impact assessment of products and services,

and processes for the environmental impact assessment of products and services, including carbon footprinting. The modelling and simulation technologies required for LCA methods are also available.

evaluation and impact assessment are being discussed in Europe (European commission 2010a). At the level of innovation clusters the recently established first knowledge

2008)‘ Summary of the Impact assessment',Commission Staff Working Document. Accompanying document to the Towards Joint Programming.

2009)‘ Evaluation and impact assessment of the ERA NET scheme and the related ERA NET actions under the 6th Framework programme Volume 1:

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