or 8 cells (3 drivers) to create diverging scenario parameters, while trends are used to ask how each different scenario plays out against each trend
While clearly beyond the scope of this paper, it may be revealing to pursue some scenarios development that focus on tracking many of these possible provocative trends forward to try to estimate how disruptive they might conceivably be by 2025.3.2.2.2.
and climate change lead to descent scenarios Ecology Economy 50 Global financial imbalances create national commercial rivalries China's role in international affairs:
Again, to be able to embody there types of wild cards into some scenarios could be a provocative and rewarding exercise to test some of the leverage points that may impact change
Overall, the lists provide a fertile field for some real dramatic change scenarios centred on some key discontinuities.
and polarities so that scenarios development appears to be both possible and desirable; Overall the many obviously very thoughtful responses and the depth and scope of imaginative thinking inherent in these responses suggest a robust series of discussions
and further research and scenarios development may be warranted; Further assessment of survey variables has indicated that there are no dramatic surprises,
If you take a likely scenario with twenty components, each with a 90%probability, then the overall probability is only 12%.
In this scenario, several new applications of FTA have been identified 9. It is important to highlight that an effective Conference can provide a‘showcase'of the field,
The aim of the scenario task presented in the paper by Heinonen and Lauttama ki was to map out processes that would enable the achievement of sustainable emission levels
Four scenarios were constructed by looking back to the present from the future state of 2050 The main purpose in using the scenario approach was not to predict
Although all the scenarios were against current trends, they were still in the range of predictable futures (energy efficiency,
they suggest ways to reinforce the scenario design method with more in depth analysis, without losing its qualitative nature and its strengths for communication and stakeholder engagement.
offering scenarios and integrated solutions to support policy-makers. Currently Peter works at the Research centre of the Flemish Government, where he is in charge of foresight and sustainability assessment.
Brainstorming Quantitative models Open space Cost-benefit analysis Expert workshops Multi-criteria analysis Focus groups pta methods Explorative (qualitative) scenarios VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage
The term‘‘scenario''subsumes a broad range of tools and methodological approaches. In general, several tools are combined in a scenario process (workshops, CBA, trend analyses, models, Delphi, roadmaps and others.
Scenarios are defined by many authors as a coherent illustration of possible future situations together with pathways that might lead to these situations (Kosow and Gaßner 2008.
Scenarios help to reflect on the consequences of decision-making. They can serve as arenas, where certain policy interventions are tested''to get a better understanding of the related causal relations and of the anticipated effects.
They help to systemise and deepen knowledge in a certain field. They help identifying uncertainties, blind spots, contradictions or dilemmas.
However, the ability to detect specific unintended effects depends on the scenario methodology applied and thus, has to be discussed in relation to the different variations of the methodology.
For example, explorative scenarios are designed usually in a rather open way and should be able to explore unknowns.
Scenario processes and modelling approaches quite often play an important role. In particular for SEA, participatory or consultative methods are used also frequently (see Rauschmayer and Risse, 2005.
In many ways, foresight techniques also originally arose out of the need to deal with unexpected events in the technology and political arenas, for example the classic Shell scenarios.
has focussed on adapting scenario techniques, Rami'rez and Van der Heijden (2008) or on wild card management, for example that based on weak signal methodologies, Mendonc¸a et al.
New methods for Applying Scenarios, Earthscan, London. Reynolds, C. 1987),‘Flocks, herds, and schools, a distributed behavioural model 1'',Computer graphics, Vol. 21 No. 4, pp. 25-34.
Backcasting scenarios for Finland 2050 of low emissions Sirkka Heinonen and Ville Lauttama ki Abstract Purpose The objective of this paper is to present an example on how futures studies methodologies,
and the part on which this paper concentrates, was a scenario process aimed at depicting possible end states
The scenario process was facilitated by the Finland futures research centre (FFRC) of the University of Turku in late 2008.
Before FFRC was invited to facilitate the scenario process, the Prime minister's Office had identified already the desired goal for the year 2050:
the foresight exercise was about forming different backcasting scenarios to the desired future. The approach of using backcasting was predetermined also specifically.
There were also a number of basic assumptions that were set before the scenario work begun. These assumptions were introduced in the Long-term Climate
and can thus be considered to provide the building blocks of a baseline scenario. These were considered not as absolutely fixed statements
and some of them were challenged during the scenario process. Unless otherwise stated in the depiction of the scenarios introduced in this paper
the following factors were considered to apply behind all development paths: B Population of Finland is assumed to grow from the current 5. 3 million to 5. 7 million by 2050.
Methodology The scenario process was carried out as a concise Delphi process which consisted of two rounds of web questionnaires and of two futures workshops,
The people invited to futures workshops were selected in co-operation with the scenario team of the Prime minister's Office
Scenarios are manuscripts of the future; they are a meta-technique not just a single method.
Scenario is one of the most basic, yet contested, concepts in futures studies as Bo rjeson et al.
Scenarios cover a whole array of various types of scenarios. Mannermaa (1991) even distinguishes a scenario paradigm.
The main purpose in using the scenario approach is not to predict but to construct several different futures
One specific type of scenarios is backcasting. The backcasting approach, applied in this scenario exercise, is a scenario coming back from the future to the present.
A classical predecessor of modern backcasting is Edward Bellamy (1951) with his Table I Progress of the scenario process Phase Time Method Goal Material gathering and final design of the study September 2008 Literary review,
environmental scanning Review on the background reports commissioned by the Prime minister's Office, specifying the end future state that the development paths are aiming and based on this material,
designing the first questionnaire Defining the expert group involved in the futures workshops together with the Prime minister's Office's scenario team 1st Delphi round October 2008 Delphi:
ACTVOD futures process Building alternative scenarios that all fulfil the two-degree target 2nd Delphi round November 2008 Delphi:
what actions and which actors play key roles After this round the preliminary versions of the result of the scenario process,
four distinctive scenarios, are constructed Futures workshop November 2008 Futures workshop, ACTVOD futures process Analysing and specifying the four designed scenarios Final report December 2008 Final report in electronic format Report gathering together the results of the process:
four different paths for the desired end state PAGE 306 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 book Looking Backward 2000-1887.
Backcasting scenarios can thus be called‘‘transforming normative scenarios''.''Ho jer et al. 2011, pp. 11-12.
Instead of continuities they build on possible discontinuities to reach the solution desired and try to break the trend of business-as usual.
Backcasting scenarios are usually relatively long-term (20-100 years)( Robinson, 1990, p. 820), which in itself helps thinking outside current trends
In this scenario task the participatory process was carried out as futures workshops (see chapters 2. 2 and 2. 4). Here,
1. by their nature backcasting scenarios are typically normative (target orientated), i e. they are adopted in search for prerequisites for preferred futures (Robinson, 1982);
and 2. growing interest towards backcasting scenarios had been shown in Finland, but very few exercises have actually been carried out.
energy and transport scenarios (see, e g. Bo rjeson et al. 2006. First round of Delphi questionnaire The process was kicked off with the first round of a Delphi questionnaire.
The first questionnaire was aimed at collecting views of the expert group to provide a basis for the scenario work.
the imaginary phase (futures wheel), systematic phase (futures table) and explanatory phase (drafting an array of scenarios for sustainable Finland 2050.
but the results of the ongoing foresight and scenario work were communicated to the general public via the internet for comments and discussion.
in addition to providing the background for the four scenarios that were the final result of the whole foresight process.
which was refined to form four distinctive scenario drafts by the FFRC team. The FFRC team's key task was to arrange the material into four development paths not sharing too many common features.
Drafts of the four scenarios were introduced in the questionnaire to the respondents, who were asked to study the scenarios
and assess their qualities: credibility, desirability, as well as obstacles and drivers for realisation of each scenario.
Along with improving the drafted scenarios, the goal of the second questionnaire was to fill in the gaps in the information required to forma solid general view of the future.
Hence the most important information needs concerned possible development paths in key energy consuming sectors (transport, housing and industry), the additional questions concentrated on these issues.
whereas questions concerning the scenario drafts were open questions. Second futures workshop By the second futures workshop
based on this new data, rewritten the four scenario drafts each depicting one possible path to the desired sustainable future (no higher rise than two Celsius degree in average earth temperature).
assess, and complete the scenarios. As with the first workshop, the results so far were sent beforehand to those who had confirmed their participation in the workshop.
and cons of the constructed scenarios before the workshop, thus making work in the futures workshop more effective.
Results and policy implications The final results of the foresight process were four scenarios that all fulfil the targets of reducing GHG emissions by at least 80 per cent from the 1990's levels
The four finalised scenarios were labelled as 2: PAGE 308 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 1. Efficiency revolution (concentration on diminishing energy consumption.
4. Technology is the key (business-as usual scenario, solutions relying on decentralised energy production and increased use of nuclear power).
The main characteristics of all scenarios are illustrated collectively in Table II. Elements belonging to each of the four scenarios are displayed in their own columns.
In the left column that displays the most important variables, the most discussed topics were the structure
During the scenario process no significant new energy uses outside these sectors were thought to emerge by 2050.
Along with producing the scenarios factors affecting the attainment of the set targets were inquired also after.
the Prime minister's Office took the scenario process further and commissioned detailed descriptions of the development paths towards the described end states that would fulfil the two-degree target,
and needed changes for current practises caused by each scenario. The results of these calculations are presented in the Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009, pp. 160-184.
and the staff of the Prime minister's Office on whether or not attaching numerical values to scenarios stretching all the way to year 2050 is advisable.
The FFRC team stressed that due to the nature of long-reaching scenarios to hold a great variety of unknown uncertainties,
a cross-impact analysis to see the possible implications that changes in major elements of each of the scenarios might bring,
the VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 309 Table II Attributes of the constructed scenarios Scenario/variable A Efficiency revolution B Sustainable daily mile C
CCS technologies in use (continued) PAGE 310 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Table II Scenario/variable A Efficiency revolution B Sustainable daily
If the user of the resulting numerical information concerning the scenarios is not aware of the uncertainties behind scenarios,
and the decision-makers might be tempted to focus on a particular scenario. Another risk of this approach is that calculations and assessment of, for example,
the basic idea of scenarios as describing alternative possibilities, not predicted certainties, is lost. The best way to avoid this trap would be to repeat the scenario process regularly to refine the results.
Using scenarios in decision-making is ideally a continuous process rather than a onetime exercise. External and internal evaluations The Government Foresight report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy was completed
and approved in the government and by Parliament in October 2009. A year after that, the government commissioned an evaluation on the effectiveness of the preparation process that would comment on the general progress of the process as well as the usability of this kind of foresight work in policy planning.
of which the FFRC's scenario work represented only one part. The Prime minister's Office also wanted to publish the scenario process as such (Lauttama ki and Heinonen
2010), since a lot of public interest was directed towards it and the full scenarios were published only as attachments in the completed foresight report.
All in all, three evaluations of the government futures report were conducted where the scenario process was discussed also:
one internal evaluation as mentioned above, and two external evaluations one being the official statement given by the Committee for the Future in Parliament (2011),
The extent of constructing scenarios in the government foresight report was defined as unique and pioneering. Wilenius (2011) recommends the application of scenarios in the future as well,
and proposes that the focus in developing foresight reports should be, e g. on how scenario techniques could deal with long-term goals and path dependences to a more detailed degree.
Establishing of the position of Minister of Climate and Energy for the next government was proposed also.
In the evaluation, especially the scenario work is PAGE 312 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 acknowledged for bringing forward genuinely varied possibilities to achieve the emission targets.
While, in line with the idea of backcasting method, all the scenarios are against current trends, they are still quite predictable (energy efficiency,
However, the implications of the scenarios include somewhat radical elements. These include, e g. significant fall in mass consumption and rise of small-scale local production and consumption instead, hugely increased telepresence and virtual travel and consequently considerably lowered need for personal transportation, highly cohesive urban structure,
The scenario implications show that by encouraging participants to think of discontinuities the backcasting process can help imaging alternative futures
The scenario team had collected a very impressive and insightful group of people to act as expert panellists for the Delphi and the scenario process to balance out the time constraints.
The most important deviation from the original results was made the change to scenario B. In the original material produced by the scenario process facilitated by FFRC
this would mean that in the future wellbeing is defined in a different fashion from today) was presented in scenario B. In the final publication of the results of the scenario process this notion was replaced with stable growth.
2. The scenario titles are here in the form that they are presented in Government Foresight report (Prime minister's Office, 2009.
In the original scenario work the titles were rather similar, except for the scenario D. Its tentative title‘‘Power from Decentralisation''was transformed into‘‘Technology is the Key''.
''3. The work for the foresight report was supervised by a ministerial working group. References A°kerman, J. 2011),‘Transport systems meeting climate targets.
Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques.
the scenarios will differ in outlook and consequences. The proposed method will be useful to locate the various socio-technical scenarios
and to view them in light of the dynamics at the separate levels. In addition the results and insights that are gained by applying CTA tools in practice can be fed back into theories of technology dynamics.
Additionally, it suggests ways to reinforce the scenario design method with more in depth analysis, without losing its qualitative nature and communication advantages.
Design/methodology/approach These assumptions are tested in a scenario design exercise that explores the future evolution of the sustainable development paradigm and its implications in the Spanish urban development model.
in contrast to its perception as a mere storytelling technique that generates oversimplified visions without the backing of rigorous analysis. Research limitations/implications In order to boost the perception of scenario design as an added value instrument for urban planners
Keywords Territorial foresight, Scenario design, Urban planning, Sustainable development, Strategic planning, Forecasting Paper type Research paper 1. The oblivion of future studies in urban planning Since its origins in the nineteenth
) The European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007) has published also the findings of its project‘‘Scenarios on the territorial future of Europe'',in
which three spatial scenarios were set out for the horizon 2030 (European foresight Platform, 20115). Finally, the European foresight Platform, another European commission funded body, has made an intense effort to compile several regional foresight exercises within its Knowledge sharing Platform (European foresight Platform, 2011.
detailed outputs (visions or scenarios) that can be used as inputs for quantitative tools. With this aim in mind, an approach is presented hereby to link foresight tools and the urban planning process.
Traditional foresight tools such as vision or scenario design are used to create a future vision of the territory and its broader socioeconomic context in a narrative format.
The chosen example is based on a scenario design exercise, in which social attitudes towards sustainable development were explored in the Spanish context for the horizon 2025 (Fundacio'n OPTI, 2007).
Scenario design was chosen from among all the foresight tools because it provided an adequate management of the topic's complexity and uncertainty while at the same time unfolding alternative futures.
Scenario design is a foresight technique that has been used widely and documented (Godet, 1993; van der Heijden, 1996;
The stated foresight exercise followed the conventional scenario design methodology made up of three sequential stages:
These axes gave rise to three distinct scenarios (see Figure 3), a consistent, plausible representation of the alternative futures into which the SD concept may evolve by the year 2025.
which each future scenario may develop. Scenario A: green paradigm (circa 2025. This scenario takes place
when there is both a proactive and a favourable response by public and private agents to SD and also an abundance of all types of resources required to achieve sustainable development.
The VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 321‘‘green paradigm''is the manifestation of an environmentally aware society, in
In this scenario, Spanish society gives priority to human and social requirements over purely consumption-oriented needs.
Scenario B: predator development (circa 2025. This scenario occurs when resources of all types are abundant,
but at the same time public and private agents have either a slow or a passive reaction to sustainability challenges.‘‘
In this scenario, Spanish society is driven mainly by egocentric values. At the national level, solidarity amongst regions has deteriorated significantly due to resistance by the wealthiest territories to share their profits with their least developed counterparts.
Scenario C: back to basics (circa 2025. In this scenario, there is a significant shortage of all resource types due to a prolonged recession,
but at the same time, Spanish society as a whole is inclined to support sustainable development models.‘‘‘‘Back to basics''is marked by the failure of the previous development model,
In this scenario, Spanish society suffers a deep disenchantment with the socioeconomic model that prevailed at the end of the twentieth century.
In this scenario, economic growth is very low or even null, and commercial flows are very weak.
Forlearn Online Guide (n d.)and Millennium Project (n d.))shows that most scenarios exercises conclude with a description of the geopolitical, economic, societal and technological contexts.
In order to reinforce the perception of scenario design as a useful and added value instrument for urban planning
This goal may be achieved by analysing the in depth implications of each future scenario for functional systems, parametric indicators and spatial patterns. 4. 2 Step 2:
determining functional implications After designing the three scenarios, the proposed methodology establishes a set of functional implications that each future scenario poses for the urban planning process.
For this purpose, the conceptual framework displaying the standard urban planning process, shown in Figure 1, is used to guide the implications analysis. Functional implications of Scenario A (2025).
The‘‘green paradigm''scenario reflects a proactive social response to SD while urban societies enjoy abundant resources (see Figure 4). In this scenario,
public policies regarding urban development are decentralised very much at the regional and local level. Regional governments play a clear role in setting territorial strategies,
which take into consideration local interests insofar as they do not conflict with sustainability principles. In this context, the planning value chain is integrated partially by the need to incorporate environmental planning into every step of the development process.
and wish to have a voice of their Figure 4 Scenario A‘‘green paradigm''VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 323 own in the planning process.
In Scenario A, there are significant improvements in the governance model at the local level. Progress is reflected by transparent decision-making, effective public participation, public-private co-operation and better coordination among different levels of administration.
Functional implications of Scenario B (2025. The‘‘predator development''scenario evolves when resources are abundant,
but at the same time public and private agents have a passive attitude toward sustainability challenges. This scenario generates strong environmental and social impacts due to a model based on strong economic growth
and intense consumption (see Figure 5). Public policies related to urban development are implemented not effectively because of social and economic pressures.
In this scenario, most people live in a consumption spree that makes them reject the sacrifices needed to achieve more sustainable development.
Figure 5 Scenario B‘‘predator development''PAGE 324 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 Conditions inherent to Scenario B favour a local governance model that is opaque
Functional implications of Scenario C (2025. The‘‘back to basics''scenario takes place when economic and environmental crises are recurrent,
resources are scarce and social attitudes are very favourable towards the implementation of strict SD models (see Figure 6). Due to difficulties in enacting
In this scenario, the governance model is managed by a strong centralised power base (probably the State) that makes major decisions regarding the pattern of urban development to be implemented by regional and local authorities.
its major drawback Figure 6 Scenario C‘‘back to basics''VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 325 being the threat of majorities imposing decisions on minority
Meadows, 1998) is established to assess the potential impact of each future scenario on urban development patterns (see Table I). A base-line scenario (2010) is estimated,
the spatial implications of each scenario can be displayed with graphic tools. Future spatial patterns are visualized through the location
Each of the following spatial scenarios represents a planning concept taken to an extreme. The final shape adopted by the localities will be a meld of several issues
Spatial implications of Scenario A (2025. The predominant philosophy of the‘‘green paradigm''scenario will be to thrive in economic and social terms with lower consumption of energy, water and natural resources.
Under these circumstances, the study area will develop as follows (see Figure 8). There will be a lower consumption of urban land per capita and greater protection of rural land.
Spatial implications of Scenario B (2025. In the‘‘predator development''scenario, population growth coupled with strong economic development
and rising energy consumption will cause a significant increase in the ecological footprint. Spatial development in the study area will take place as follows (see Figure 9). Territorial management strategies will not incorporate the principles of sustainable development extensively,
I Main scenarios indicators 2025 Indicators Measurement unit 2010 Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C Analytical methods and tools used for estimating indicators Society Population growth K
Spatial implications of Scenario C (2025. In the‘‘back to basics''scenario, sustainable development will be imperative due to the lack of energy resources and low economic activity.
Under these limitations, spatial development in the study area will occur in the following terms (see Figure 10.
Figure 7 Current spatial scenario (2010) PAGE 328 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 4. 5 Step 5:
which gaps between the future scenario and the present situation can be perceived easily. The identification of gaps
A few sample strategies are suggested below for each scenario. Suggested strategies for Scenario A. The green paradigm scenario offers a favourable context to successfully tackle the major challenges such as fighting climate change
undertaking territorial planning or improving energy efficiency. Nevertheless, prospering in Scenario A will mean a major transformation in the Spanish society,
as the following strategic actions illustrate: B Develop an open collective mentality so that society can adapt quickly to changes.
Figure 8 Spatial implications of Scenario A (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 329 B Build a new economic model that is environment-friendly
Suggested strategies for Scenario B. In the predator development scenario Spanish society is somewhat self-indulgent
Figure 9 Spatial implications of Scenario B (2025) PAGE 330 jforesight jvol. 14 NO. 4 2012 B Pursue a massive incorporation of new technologies into public administration to improve
Suggested strategies for Scenario C. The back to basics scenario is dominated by a high level of social frustration due to a longstanding economic recession and the lack of an adequate response by previous governments.
Figure 10 Spatial implications of Scenario C (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 331 5. Applied approach to territorial foresight The proposed method to reconcile territorial
and their perceived barriers to the implementation of these studies. 2. Scenarios regarding social attitudes towards sustainable development were adopted from the foresight exercise carried out by Fundacio'n OPTI in 2007.
and determine scenario implications for the sustainable development model. Experts were engaged via personal interviews and focus groups. 3. The determination of functional implications as a means to strengthen scenario design was tested for the first time as part of a foresight exercise undertaken in Burgos city (Asociacio'n Plan Estrate'gico de Burgos,
2009 More than 40 local stakeholders participated in the study through eight thematic groups and determined the scenario implications for the city's future development.
This exercise was used as an input to the Burgos Strategic Plan and the city planning process. 4. Partial evidence for determining parametric and spatial implications in the study area was gathered in a research project financed by the Universidad Polite'cnica de Madrid (Ferna'ndez Gu ell et al.,
Whichever scenario materialises in the near future, the sustainability paradigm in Spain will be achieved, depending on the fulfilment of a number of prerequisites:
European Spatial Planning Observation Network (2007), Scenarios on the Territorial Future of Europe, ESPON, Belgium.
United nations (1992),‘Agenda 21 Report'',United nations Conference on Environment and Development, 3-14 june, Ri'o de Janeiro. van der Heijden, K. 1996), Scenarios:
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