and provide the necessary material and input for the scenario construction process. The consultation of experts as a methodological approach to the study of the future of law resulted in a very original and creative exercise.
It not only contributed to the construction of the various alternative scenarios that the project had planned to present,
Scenario planning law scenarios for 2030. Based on the analysis of the various expert think pieces submitted,
Despite the fact that scenarios have already been used in legal-oriented studies, such as the European-funded projects SWAMI 11 and FIDIS 12, their application has been limited, sporadic and largely descriptive.
As such, the scenarios used in these few cases constituted descriptive visions of techno-futures, illustrations
These scenarios were used thus to support the policy/legal recommendations advanced in projects of this kind,
which aimed to alert the policy maker to the legal implications of such prospective scenarios. The Law of the Future project embraced scenario planning in a very distinctive manner.
The legal scenarios thus set out to be global and systemic. Their planning, as mentioned above, derived from the initial Delphi phase in
or scenarios for 2030 (described along with their own basic characteristics) 13:1. The Global Constitutionalism scenario:
continued growth of international law and international legal institutions; the rules and institutions have a predominantly public nature. 2. The Legal Borders scenario:
the process of expansion of international rules and institutions reverses and legal borders thickens; dominated by state-made law borders;
regional organizations emerge as a key part of developing legal borders. 3. The Legal Internet Scenario:
These scenarios, as explained in the project, provide ideal types of the alternative futures of the global legal environment.
Furthermore, the scenarios can be used‘‘to assess how existing strategies perform in different global legal environments.
as an ongoing and dynamic project, the objective of the LOTF is to further develop these scenarios,
Furthermore, the project also aims to develop ways to observe which scenarios are unfolding, complementing the scenarios with a system of monitoring mechanisms, legal contingency planning,
and preparatory measures. In this respect,‘‘The Law of the Future Monitoring Mechanism''seems especially promising,
and to provide a range of different ideas based on which scenarios can afterwards be designed and presented.
scenarios constitute an instrument of construction, communication and problematisation of the future. First, and regarding the constructive aspect, scenarios are building processes:
they give a form to the future, translating it into compelling narratives, stories and visions.
Second, scenarios constitute channels through which such visions and narratives are communicated to larger audiences. As part of the storytelling endeavor that has accompanied
scenarios allow for different imagined conceptualisations of the future to be transmitted, communicated and shared. Scenarios, in brief, allow for people to‘‘access
''and‘‘learn''about the future (that is, about a particular imagined version of the latter). Third, scenarios not only build and communicate, they also problematize the future.
Through the use of this strategic tool, the future is laid down in an operation table,
This is particularly so in the case of the construction of alternative scenarios, in which the future is segmented in a number of different (and sometimes conflictive and opposing) hypothesis. In this way,
and in the legal context, the production of scenarios is extremely useful for dealing with the inexorable uncertainty of the Future 18.
uncertainties can be explored through scenarios that envisage possible and alternative futures, preparing legal systems for the matrix of different possibilities that compose the Future scenarios,
together with the use of scenarios, models and simulations to anticipate the set of possible implications that a new proposed law may produce, bear important similarities with the combination of ex ante with ex post impact assessments.
avoiding thus the risk of having the future (either envisaged in the form of scenario,
surveys and foresight studies Delphi methodology and scenarios) that are adequate to conduct regulatory foresight, and which allow the identification of future fields for regulatory policy intervention.
For a comprehensive guide as to how scenarios can be developed and used, see Bo rjeson et al.
For a detailed analysis of those trends, uncertainties, scenarios (including its likely triggers), as well as of the strategic implications for national legislators derived from the analysis of those scenarios,
see HIIL, 2011. Law Scenarios to 2030. Signposting the legal space of the future. 14.
A concrete example of a combination between quantitative and qualitative methods in FTA, namely between scenario and modelling analysis, can be found in the so-called International Futures (IFS.‘‘
‘‘Ifs''is integrated a large-scale global modeling system which acts as a powerful tool for the exploration of the long-term future of closely interacting policy-related issues (including human development, social change and environmental sustainability).
The central purpose of IFS is to facilitate exploration of global futures through alternative scenarios,
Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.-H.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006),‘Scenario types and techniques:
www. futurict. ethz. ch/data/Whatfuturictwilldo4media. pdf HIIL (2011),‘Law scenarios to 2030. Signposting the legal space of the future'',available at:
3 Other examples are immersive decision theatres (offering a virtual environment facility to visualise output of predictive and scenario-based models with the aim to support decision-making (Edsall and Larson
weak signals and scenario methodologies. In future-oriented research, the nature and implications of‘weak signals'have been debated actively during the last few years (Mendonça et al. 2004;
Ogilvy (2011) has argued recently that scenario developers and decision-makers have to learn to maintain an agnostic attitude
and simultaneously apprehend alternative scenarios. Ogilvy called this the‘scenaric stance 'and used Thom's catastrophe theory to illustrate a model where the same values of‘control variables'can be associated with very different outcomes.
The role of scenarios as prospective sensemaking devices. Management Decision 43, no. 1: 86 101.
Scenarios are used often to present the quantitative and qualitative output of FTA. Bearing in mind that a scenario is the skeleton of a play
and that the number of plays written is huge, it becomes clear that any scenario has a very low probability of occurrence among the total number of plays written.
So, it is for scenarios describing the outcome of an FTA. The number of scenarios actually presented is compared infinitesimally small to the entire set.
Consequently, the probability of any one scenario actually occurring is negligibly small as it is for each of the remaining set not presented.
All scenarios then have an equal but negligibly small probability of occurrence implying that a probability of occurrence ought not to be attached to any single scenario.
Managerially, this does not prevent a scenario from performing its two primary roles of integrating ideas in a way aimed to shift entrenched managerial behaviour.
Historically, the focus of FTA has been on technology. Its purpose now is to set technology in the context of socioeconomic matters, ecology, politics and human values/norms of the STEEPV set.
Casti (2010) is only the most recent person to question the frequent assumption that science
and technology are the prime movers in disruptive change: here, it is assumed that they are not and nor should they be considered as such.
often by using scenarios and conceptual modelling, that may include prioritising important areas of intervention,
Scenario style photographs portrayed the UK at two time slots, 1985 and 1995. Interviews are used so often to obtain opinion that the procedure is regarded as mundane,
It was invoked in the IFTFS study to gather information for the main parts of the study that later involved scenario generation The elicitation process used facilitated the later combination of quantitative
The final step in elicitation was the combining of the distributions of opinions from several interviewees into a single joint set for later use in constructing scenarios.
A story about ambitions and historic deterministic scenarios. Futures 43, no. 1: 86 98. Vergragt, P. J. 1988.
The most relevant example concerning the impact of foresight on the success of the organisation still remains the case of Shell scenarios and its anticipation of the forthcoming 1973 oil crisis (van der Heijden 1996;
Roadmaps, 3 scenarios, 4 and strategic options (Dixit and Pindyck 1994) are by far the most popular foresight techniques (Becker 2002;
and response uncertainty) was framed around scenarios. These were built via a top-down process that started at corporate level,
and the overall chemical industry and subsequently elaborating regional and business scenarios in relation to each specific geographic and business area of the firm.
It therefore decided to use scenarios as its basic methodology for tackling the challenge of investigating the major driving forces
Macro forces and their likely evolution are described in BASF‘Global economy Scenarios',where econometric models elaborate basic data in both qualitative and quantitative terms,
and Asia) and countries, by breaking down global scenarios into the firm's main sectors and business areas,
These country and business scenarios derive from a more focused analyssis which considers a larger set of framework variables,
The time frame is usually 10 15 years for Global Scenarios, but much shorter for sector and business scenarios.
Daimler has developed also a scenario-based system which focuses on the evolution, impact, and response options to drivers of change (Ruff 2006).
Such system aims at encompassing and integrating analyses of future changes in the macro environment into market and product issues.
At the market level, more focused scenarios are built and take into account the likely competitive moves of rivals
These scenarios aim to figure out the likely evolution of main business segments of the firm,
Scenarios are combined usually with the formulation and evaluation of strategic options, as they are seen as providing information inputs essential for assessing the profitability of curreen
Similarly, scenarios capture complexity through a multilevel hierarchy at Daimler, which progresssivel links macro drivers of change with specific management objectives and business issues.
and one of the most relevant ideas that fitted the scenarios was for a small, trendy two-seater car.
In this context, traditional techniques such as‘top-down'scenarios (e g. deductive scenarios starting with two key dimensions:
As the former head of the scenario unit of BASF pointed out to us: In the chemical industry, techniques like scenarios were valuable
because they helped managers focus on emerging forces of change. Scenarios provided an organic framework for thinking about how these forces could develop in the next 10 or 20 years.
At the same time, by exploiting what we already knew about rivals, suppliers and customers thanks to our long experience of the chemical business,
In the face of boundary uncertainty, it is simply not sensible to use techniques such as scenarios or roadmaps.
A senior manager of Philips emphasised In our business foresight must address an essential prerequisite before using traditional techniques like scenarios:
Decision-makers facing continuous drivers of change or discontinuous drivers of which they have solved already boundary uncertainty might eventually exploit scenarios
4. Scenarios are focused descriptions of fundamentally different futures presented in a coherent script-like or narrative fashion.
As such, scenarios are not projections, predictions, or preferences, but rather credible and coherent stories that describe different paths leading to alternative futures (Fahey and Randall 1998;
Scenarios: The art of strategic conversation. Newyork: Wiley. van der Heijden, K.,R. Bradfield, G. Burt, G. Crains,
Accelerating organisational learning with scenarios. Chichester: Wiley. Hofer, C. W, . and D. E. Schendel. 1978.
Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Review 63, no. 5: 73 90. Wiltbank, R.,N. Dew, S. Read,
bring into the scenario the requirement of aligning customers and also suppliers in the decision-making process and the operational procedures needed to carry out the necessary value activities to achieve the ultimate goal of satisfying the end-customer.
Lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on manufacturing systems. Futures. Cagnin, C. H. 2005. An information architecture to enable business sustainability.
Although this is not equivalent to more traditional and long-term forecasting methods such as Delphi studies or scenarios, it is nonetheless an effective means of guiding the science and technology enterprise in the shorter term.
These kinds of future manuscripts could also be produced with other narrative foresight methods, such as scenarios or‘genius forecasting'.
This idea of a roadmap as a crystallised strategy chart separates roadmapping from other‘generic'foresight methods, such as Delphi or scenario processes.
of the‘Nordicness'in the context of ICT applications Building structural openness for a Nordic region in the context of ICT adoption Building a systematic set of actions in the medium and long term and in the context of the four scenarios
Creation of four context scenarios on the adoption of ICT in four Nordic countries Building system-level strategic
plausible, disruptive, alternative, unlikely Assessing the explorative application visions in the context of four scenarios Creation of scenario-based visionary socio-technical roadmaps on several application visions
It provided an assessment of explorative visions in the context of four scenarios and created scenario-based visionary sociotechhnica roadmaps.
In the capacity view, the project endorsed systemic openness towards future development options in the context of ICT,
and even‘black swan'type of developments in the context of the scenarios. On this basis, the project fostered so-called adaptive strategies, that is, identification disruptive strategic‘holes'for Nordic ICT development.
which would be the optimal scenario in construuctin systemic transformation capacities. Thus, applying the project knowledge in changing organisational practices would still require further activation rounds.
or making experimental mini-scenarios, could be handiie than more structured roadmapping. In addition, exploratory approaches based on, for example, modelling, simulation,
The lessons of the article could be ennobled by putting them in a dialogue with other foresight methodds such as scenario and weak signal analysis.
Presentations of alternative development scenarios to interested parties can communicate and advance foresight processes (Step I). FIP can identify lead
scenario and workshop were conducted independently in consideration of four global or national challenges. The points of the studies are diversified interdisciplinary
Information from the Delphi method and scenario is converged using text mining to position scientific and technological areas in a big picture.
Keywords Foresight, Combination, Delphi method, Scenario, Innovation, Sustainable development, Forward planning Paper type Case study 1. Introduction The situation surrounding science and technology has undergone a radical change in recent years.
and scenario are three major methods that are used commonly around the world, and they are all qualitative (European commission, 2009).
B scenario is used often with literature review, expert panel, and trend extrapolation/megatrends; B the Delphi method is used often with literature review, expert panel,
and B workshop is used with literature review, expert panel, and scenario. VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 7 Scenario requires extensive knowledge of the field under investigation,
and information from other sources is expected to be interpreted (Mietzner and Reger, 2005). The Delphi method is regarded as one of the useful information sources for scenario (Loveridge, 1999.
The Delphi method is discussed also from the viewpoint of a combination with road mapping (Kanama et al. 2008).
around 20-39 percent of Delphi exercises are combined with scenario. The 9th Science and Technology foresight in Japan (see Figure 1) focuses on science and technology,
2. scenario that explores the interaction between the technological aspect and the social aspect; and 3. workshop that aims for the participation of citizens.
B scenario reveals the social impact of technological development and the required social conditions toward addressing the challenges;
and finally 2, 900 responses were received in total. 2. 3 Scenario Three approaches were attempted for scenario building with a view to the desired future. 2. 3. 1 Scenarios by group work.
They set the scenario themes had extensive and interdisciplinary discussions, and created a positive scenario each about future changes that should be made;
that is, a framework for reaching goals. Each scenario was supposed to be centered on drawing up the desired future
and extensive coverage of key elements including priority research and development, human resource development, social conditions to be improved,
By their nature, experts with a deep and broad knowledge who joined scenario groups or the Delphi survey come disproportionately from the middle-aged generation.
On the other hand, scenario gives sufficient discussion on scientific and technological events that make a direct contribution to the challenges,
Delphi and the scenarios by group work. The keywords that frequently appear in and are characteristic to each scenario were extracted.
A keyword is defined as consisting of more than two characters. Scores are assigned to all the keywords by the term frequency-inverted document frequency (TF-IDF) method shown below that is generally used in text mining;
a high score is given to a keyword that appears in a specific scenario and a low score is given to a keyword that commonly appears in many scenarios.
The statements of Delphi topics are matched to the keywords in each scenario. If a topic statement has a keyword,
that topic is given a score of that matched keyword. In this way, all PAGE 10 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 the Delphi topics are given scores by scenario according to their similarity,
which are expressed as a score matrix. Based on the matrix, Delphi areas (groups of relevant topics) and scenario themes are positioned on a two-dimensional map by correspondence analysis.
Correspondence analysis is used a widely method to grasp the relations between two different categories of data.
The procedure is shown in Figure 2. 4. Expected innovation 4. 1 Relations between Delphi topics and scenarios On average,
one scenario has 4 percent of Delphi topics with scores greater than 100, and 75 percent of them with scores less than 30.
there are 329 Delphi topics with scores greater than 100 in at least one scenario, around 40 percent of all topics,
because closely related topics vary from one scenario to another. They are regarded as topics that have a closer relationship with solving the challenges.
In Figure 3, the Delphi topics for each scenario are classified in decreasing order of score.
The scenarios that contain many highly scored topics can be considered to offer a greater scope for contributions from science and technology.
Five such scenario themes include: 1.‘‘Realization of a low-carbon society through the active use of the Smart-grid'';
On the other hand, the scenario themes with many low-scored topics are characterized by a low level of matching,
which may indicate a lack of concrete measures and proposals in the scenarios or a shortage of relevant Delphi topics.
The scenario theme of‘‘Integration of agriculture, forestry, and fishery industries into a unified entity''is an example of this type,
Figure 2 The procedure of analysis VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 11 4. 2 Overall view Relations between the scenarios
The scenarios and Delphi areas Figure 3 Distribution of relevant topics by scenario theme PAGE 12 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 closely related are grouped together in reference to the results
As can be seen in the map, the scenarios and Delphi areas related to energy, resources, and environment gather on the left side,
On the other hand, the scenarios and Delphi areas related to health and medical care gather on the right side,
Square dots indicate the five scenarios mentioned in section 4. 1, where science and technology are expected to make great contribution
and two out of the five scenarios that many Delphi topics are linked closely to. In addition
It also contains two of the five scenarios above, although it has a small number of the key areas shown in Table
Figure 5 Relation between directions of future innovation and base technology areas VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 15 5. 2 Examination of relationship between scenario descriptions
and Delphi topics Of the 12 Delphi panels, the number which each scenario has links to ranges from zero to nine.
The five scenario themes mentioned in section 4. 1 and shown as square dots in Figure 4 are linked to topics in at least half of all panels.
Figure 6 shows how many scenarios each topic has relations to. Here, topics that score 30 or more are regarded as being related to a scenario,
and about 25 percent of all topics in each scenario meet this requirement. Panels 2 and 5 have around 20 percent of topics that have no relation to scenarios
and most of them are related to at most three scenarios. On the other hand, Panels 10,11 and 12 have many topics that are common in several scenarios
and around half of the topics are related to more than three scenarios. Panel 9 has both specific topics and common topics.
Regarding base or common technologies related to ICT (Panel 2) and to earth/space (Panel 5),
specific topics tend to contribute to specific issues, whereas when it comes to technologies related to hard and soft infrastructure (Panel 11 and 12),
and to manufacturing (Panel 10), single topics tend to be related to solutions for several issues.
The extent of expected diversity in science and technology depends on scenario themes and the extent of relation to scenario themes depends on scientific or technological fields.
This reflects complexity of the relationship between scientific or technological development and social benefit coming from it,
and show the framework Figure 6 Ratio of topics that are related to several scenarios PAGE 16 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 toward its realization.
employing methods of Delphi, scenario, and workshop in consideration of the four global or national challenges.
and scenario to get a whole picture of science and technology toward the desired future. Green-related areas and life-related areas define the major directions of our future efforts toward realization of the desired future.
Scenarios and exploration in depth Given that future-looking activities of the BMBF often span time periods of ten to 20 years it can be fruitful to engage all stakeholders in building normative and/or exploratory scenarios as a guide and framework
or more scenarios and understand the drivers leading to them. The scenarios are turned subsequently into prose based on the results of discussion in the workshop.
The draft is circulated for review and completion by the experts over the course of two feedback loops.
The scenario process as described can also be followed by further workshops to explore and detail certain aspects.
energy-efficient and climate-adapted city''that was developed in a scenario workshop with a cross-disciplinary panel of 20 experts.
competitor profiling, early warning assessment, scientometrics, science mapping, scenarios, network analysis and so forth (Calof and Smith, 2010).
and Analysis) and to assess multiple scenarios to support the design of dynamic adaptive policies.
De Smedt et al. 5 investigate ways in which futures thinking assisted by scenarios can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges and for orienting innovation systems.
and it deals with uncertainties by using an ensemble of different models to explore a multiplicity of plausible futures (or scenarios.
Finally, future research avenues include elaborating on the use of EMA for designing dynamic adaptive policies and the use of EMA for scenario discovery,
It does so by analysing seventeen scenario-based projects to identify elements of good practices
In this context, scenarios are seen as a tool for inspiring and orienting innovation systems. Therefore, scenarios stimulate future-oriented thinking,
create a common language and understanding between stakeholders thus supporting a systematic negotiation process, and legitimate a chosen course of action through engagement and dialogue.
e g. when relying on qualitative scenarios in devising technology roadmaps. They also identified the scientific quality and validity of outcomes of participatory approaches as an issue of concern 18.
Quantification of qualitative scenarios: Quantitative methods can also be used to process qualitative judgments for scenario design 30,31.
Valette 32 points at opportunities for foresight exercises that combine expert-based contrasted socioeconomic and policy scenarios (qualitative part) and a mathematical quantification of the impacts of the alternative scenarios (quantitative part)( p. 239.
Output of quantitative approaches that feeds into qualitative FTA Use of bibliometric and patent analysis as an input for further qualitative FTA:
trend extrapolation), highlighting that they were combined with literature review, scenarios and expert panels. These conclusions have to be interpreted with care,
One example constitutes the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios, linking ecosystem change and human well-being by combining qualitative storyline development and quantitative modelling through several iterations between both parts 44.
In the quantification of ecosystem service scenarios it was possible to identify where advancements are needed in terms of model developments. 4. Barriers to integrating FTA METHODS The above taxonomy
On the other hand, qualitative approaches have been adopted for many decades (e g. scenarios) with no other involvement than that of the FTA EXPERTS.
Unavoidably, policy-makers and stakeholders will assign a higher plausibility to scenarios that somehow resonate with their own visions.
a stocktaking of basic knowledge (including e g. relevant statistical evidence, existing scenarios and corresponding outputs,
a participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 77 (2010) 34 49.395 K. Haegeman et al./
(Coordinating lead authors), Methodology for Developing the MA Scenarios, in: S. R. Carpenter, P. L. Pingali, E. M. Bennett and M. B. Zurek (Eds), Ecosystems and Human Well-being:
Scenarios, Volume 2, Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Washington: ISLAND PRESS, 2005.45 D. T. Campbell, A Study of Leadership Among Submarine Officers, Ohio State university Res.
building policy options into a scenario for development in a global knowledge society, Futures 37 (2005) 813 831.74 R. Johnston, Developing the capacity to assess the impact of foresight, Foresight 14 (1
following his optimistic view of a strong, confident technology-driven scenario, which would bring a renewed thrust toward new methods in technological forecasting (Fig. 1). The picture suggests that the chaotic phase transition might be behind us
Policy failures are often attributable to the omission of uncertainties in policy-making 7. Policies that would be optimal for one particular scenario often fail in most other scenarios.
and none should be treated as the single best model representation, true scenario, or correct evaluation.
i e. with many different kinds of uncertainties, multiple models, a multiplicity of plausible scenarios and evaluations of these scenarios 17.
and other uncertainties in order to generate a large variety of scenarios that are used in turn to analyze complex uncertain systems,
and opportunities present in this ensemble of scenarios, paving the way for designing targeted actions that address vulnerabilities
The efficacy of the resulting policies could then be tested over the entire ensemble of scenarios.
4) the generation of a large ensemble of scenarios,(5) the exploration and analysis of the ensemble of scenarios obtained in Step 4
(9) the exploration and analysis of the ensemble of scenarios obtained in Step 8 in order to identify troublesome and/or promising regions across the outcomes of interest,
which allows distilling uncertainty subspaces with high positive match ratios for a pre-specified binary classification function and with high relative masses (above a pre-specified threshold relative to the total scenario space).
however, aimed at translating the troublesome regions back to qualitative scenarios that could then be presented to a decision maker.
this uncertainty subspace consists of acceptable scenarios in terms of CO2 avoidance even though the transition to new technologies is limited.
New methods for Quantitative, Long-term Policy analysis, RAND, Santa monica, California, 2003.9 K. van der Heijden, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, 1996.10 H. A. Lindstone, M. Turoff, The Delphi method:
Comput. 9 (1999) 123 143.40 D. G. Groves, R. J. Lempert, A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios, Glob.
scenarios, Manag. Sci. 52 (2006) 514 528.42 J. H. Kwakkel W. L. Auping, E. Pruyt, Dynamic scenario discovery under deep uncertainty:
the future of copper, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change (in press), http://dx. doi. org/10.1016/j. techfore. 2012.09.012.43 B. P. Bryant, R. J. Lempert, Thinking inside the box:
a participatory, computer-assisted approach to scenario discovery, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 77 (2010) 34 49.44 R. Lempert, M. Collins, Managing the risk of uncertain threshold response:
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
Copyright Semantic-Knowledge, 1994-2011