They address a wide variety of issues in FTA including methods and policy and governance impacts with discussions and demonstrations at the regional and corporate levels.
Andersen and Borup's paper addresses the issue of foresight and strategy processes of national research councils and research programmes.
Technical University of Denmark, Produktionstrovet 424, DK-2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark This paper addresses the issue of foresight and strategy processes of national research councils and research programmes.
To some extent this issue is discussed also in the strategy literature. In the 1990s Henry Mintzberg, in a book and two papers (Mintzberg 1994a c), argued that strategic planning focuses too much on analyses
and (3) the resource-based view on strategy A strongly related issue is the understanding of decision processes.
therefore between thematic priorities concerned with scientific fields, technology areas, industrial sectors, issues, etc. and structuura priorities concerned with issues such as research infrastructures, higher education teaching programmes, innovation promotion initiatives, venture capital markets,
system networking and community-building, and so on. It is not unusual for these priority-setting exercises to set out to identify only thematic or structural priorities at the outset,
issues of granularity of S&t areas for prioritisation; the availability and use of background data; and the nature of processes of deliberation. 5. 1. Variety and change in the meanings of Foresight The FNR Foresight was born out of the necessity for the FNR to define new research programmes.
This steering away from structural issues caused considerable discontent among participants of the exercise. Furthermore
and scope created uncertainty around its consequences. 5. 2. Dealing with issues of granularity and identifying‘competence niches'The dilemma around the level of‘granularity'of research topics to be prioritised already highligghte in Section 3 was understood well by the FNR and its consultants from the outset.
and they understandably tended to veer towards wider discussion of a whole range of structural issues which,
more immediate issues prevailed and seemed to be the main focus for them. 6. Foresight impacts Given the wide scope of participation in foresight exercises,
We will now deal with each of these issues in turn. First, the number of priorities:
This is also related to the issue as to whether the exercise was intended to set FNR or national priorities.
A final issue concerns the degree to which the exercise was supposed to identify new domains (regardless of existing competences)
This issue was resolved never satisfactorily, owing to a lack of common vision among the various stakeholders on the position and contribution of S&t to Luxembourg's socioeconomic development. 7. 2. Setting the‘granularity'of priorities The priorities identified by the exercise were set at a level
other medium-and longer-term issues can be discussed on the grounds of the process design and its key characteristtics The concluding section will synthesise some of the most interesting insights that could be gained from the experience of the project. 2. Framework for the impact assessment of foresight processes1 2. 1. Changing insights into processes of innovation and policy making
This converging understanding of the issues at play is likely to contribute to an improved coherence of the distributed decisions of these actors
Figure 2. Main fields of action and associated kickoff projects. focus on gender issues and parts of the population that have been neglected in the past (e g. university graduates with a migration background).(
3) In revising the City of Vienna business promotion principles‘ZIT 08plus'more attention will be given to crosscutting issues of RTI policies,
technology and innovation among different players that are primarily dealing with other issues. While still being distributed very much among different municipal departments,
and avoid the formulation of contentious issues that might put into question the agreement by other councillors.
and other research and innovation actors is one of the issues on the future agenda, including the dialogue with the public.
and thus policy-relevant, time horizon implied that severra important longer-term issues, likely to be of a controversial nature,
This issue, as well as some others that could have given rise to uncertainties and thus to the consideration of alternative futures had been addressed in the forward-looking part Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 967 of the preceding research programme on the Viennese innovation system,
Avoiding these sensitive issues was necessary to reach consensus on other proposals. Finally, the largely inward-looking nature of the process, focusing very much on the scope for action by the local government
Overall, the need to achieve consensus on immediate policy actions among the key local policy actors implied that several of the more controversial issues,
containing also some controversial issues, in parallel with a shorter‘official'strategy document that outlines the common ground of urban research and innovation policy.
and issues only rather than aiming at solutions. 3. See the study on methods and dimensions of impact assessment by Rhomberg, Steindl,
the project leadership resolved issues of stakeholder interests and futures literacy before they received their contributions.
Thirdly, this discussion of stakeholder image construction in foresight is inspired by issues of reflexivity in social theory (Giddens 1991;
Social Living their future lives in Lundal Concentrate on issues of well-being in society! Ask your parents and neighbours!
This becomes a power-related issue when organisations intend to create one desired vision of the future.
Stakeholder image construction is a political issue in foresight. In the case of Lundal's visioning project,
Onkey issues of foresight: participation, prioritisation, implementation, impact. Technikfolgenabschätzung 12, no. 2: 32 8. Bood, R. 2002.
Then, one can automate routines to generate composite information representations (bonepageersq that address the issues at hand, the way that the target users want.
13 Management of Technology (bmotq) issues! 39 MOT questions! 200 binnovation indicatorsq. 2 We gratefully acknowledge support of the U s. National science Foundation for"QTIPS-24-Hour Technology intelligence & Forecasting"(DMI-0231650.
and issues is vital for QTIP to work. Having standard information dramatically enhances managerial receptivity:!
In addition to scientific fields and technological areas, even other dimensions of balance had to be addressed (e g. gender issues, representation of geographical regions.
of which addressed structural issues (e g. regional innovation policy; intellectual properrt rights; demand-orientation of innovation activities. The objectives of this process whose Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:11 03 december 2014 Axes of balance in foresight 997 results were published in June 2008
This framework helped mitigate the risk that the panel discussions would drift to the structural issues
It also supports international scientific cooperation and acts as an expert organ in issues related to science policy.
Two related issues emerged that were to prove persistent. The first has been a constant tension between, on one hand,
and more specifically for foresight, in terms of its inbuilt concern with research and innovation policy or strategy issues.
They call for a better understanding of issues to be considered by the FTA COMMUNITY so that it can support the quest for new forms of governance.
In this paper we address the issue of the tailoring of Foresight with respect to themes or field,
the issues of monitoring GM plants released in the environment and of co-existence between GM and non-GM plants have fostered collaboration with environmental sciences.
this paper proposes a reasonably validated framework which beyond its acknowledged limitations addresses directly the difficult issue of the design of Foresight activities fit for the emerging European research area (ERA.
and bringing those issues into the organization for early consideration and action. This article describes the scanning process as SRIC-BI practices it, the importance of open intelligence systems,
the complexity and breadth of the issues and forces driving marketplace turbulence militate, for the time being, against complete dependence on such tools.
Another abstract K. M. Patton/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1082 1093 1087 helps clients reframe design issues by citing designer Dan Formosa
and bringing those issues into the organization for early consideration and action. References 1 Mark Buchanan, Power laws and the new science of complexity management
the issue of ranking or resource allocation comes into play. A number of techniques exist, most
or scoring process (raising of course the issue of who is empowered to vote or assign scores or weightings).
L. Georghiou, J. Cassingena Harper/Futures 43 (2011) 243 251 245 issue is how actionable such lists are.
Projects are not the focus of detailed selection effort the primary issue is one of addressing broad technology goals
Foresight aligning actors in innovation policy Structural issues are also to the fore in an emerging important application of foresight
organisational and business environment related issues''28. Other corporate activities are engaged more directly with the specifics of innovation:
and a disconnection between the development and application of new technologies and the societal and business issues which are wanted by the public and their political representatives.
Considering these issues there is a prima facie case for the application of foresight approaches on a substantial scale.
sustainability and information society issues requires typically many types of participants as well as different kinds of methods to adapt to the interests
Other benefits that could be achieved through the Foresight process include creation of linkages among participants, development of a shared understanding on the various issues at stake,
''‘Japan contributing to Global Issues''and‘‘Japan Opening to the World''.''Fixed The methodology was fixed at the beginning.
Consensual The‘‘Revision of 3rd Korean TF''has analysed the impacts of 19 megatrends & issues,
which separates development issues into social and economic factors, emphasising that material gains are not sufficient measures or preservers of human well-being 14.
A quick scan was performed on foresight projects that address security, sustainability and/or information society issues. The suitability of the identified projects was discussed
/Futures 43 (2011) 252 264 260 considered extremely challenging due to high uncertainties related to the issue.
For foresight activities on emerging issues that are not yet proven to be of high policy importance it may be difficult to engage policy-makers in the process.
The key foci of the VTT Water Research Roadmap were the creative combination of wide-ranging water related issues at VTT as well as the generation of new R&d initiatives.
which meant that also competitive and delicate issue could be addressed alreadyduring the process. The second project identifiedwas a foresightprocess attachedtofinnish Foresight Forum, whichengageddifferent stakeholder groups, encouragedthemtosubmit ideas on prospective innovations,
Most of the projects we analysed have important informative functions in sense that they aim to provide new knowledge for better understanding of issues and of their future implications and challenges.
or emerging (technological field or when the issues are characterised by high uncertainties. This allows addressing diverse perspectives and scenarios as well as common vision-building.
and issues arising here. Tools that have been developed in such contexts for horizon scanning trend extrapolation, stakeholder mapping, eliciting expert opinion,
Other tools can help us visualise issues, make choices among competing priorities, and the like. We can point here to such approaches as risk assessment, roadmapping,
which are the subject of FTA analysis. It is typical for decision-making about S&t-related issues to require intelligence that extends well beyond
Enactment participants identify information that influences their view of an issue and then‘bracket 'and‘label'it,
or a small group, can be informed sufficiently well about numerous issues so that they can develop
and of sources of specialised knowledge about the issues and actions in focus, than characterised many earlier futures studies.
Even technocratic FTA has to confront the likelihood that no single organisation will itself contain expertise on all of the matters that bear intimately on a specific set of S&t issues it will be necessary to go out to a wider set of communities.
in the sense of having systematically researched these issues and being able to draw on a well-established literature concerning them.
Perhaps the least important but quite possibly a factor whose importance will grow in coming years is the rise of public concerns and associated social movements around many S&t issues.
These include issues that centrally involve the application of new knowledge as in the case of genomics (controversies over stem cells, use of genetic information, etc.;
issues where S&t‘‘solutions''to widely shared problems may well be contentious (geoengineering and other technological solutions to the climate change crisis as opposed to change in lifestyle and corporate practice);
Where the issues at hand are complex, involving overlapping fields of expertise, ill-defined, and so on as is the case for many of the core topics that FTA addresses design of such texts can be very challenging.
and deal with logistic issues as they arise. Typically such facilitators have acquired their skills through involvement in these and similar group activities,
Often, something like the STEEPV approach in which people are asked to identify factors and issues under the headings social, technological, economic, environmental, political,
This simple conceptual tool constitutes a useful way of ensuring that a broad range of issues is considered;
Here we have related methods in FTA to knowledge and knowledge management issues. Even a cursory examination of the KM literature will confirm several things.
and those stressing more organisational and managerial issues and social learning. Other divergences in practice and philosophy do not precisely map onto the IT
This is not an issue of technology versus interaction, since IT can be used to support activity at all poles of Popper's diamond.
Such issues do not only arise in the highly formal techniques of modelling. The influences of specific procedures (and the‘‘technical''choices made in implementing them) on the outcomes of creativity sessions
there is not a great deal of analysis of such issues. Our KM decisions are undertaken from a limited evidence base;
which issue was taken with core assumptions, where alternative sources of expertise were mobilised, where dimensions of the system that were marginalised in the main work were highlighted.
The resulting report put much more focus on ethical issues and hazards than the earlier work had done. 11 A rather different tack was taken by the SWAMI study.
SWAMI took a more critical approach to the social, economic, legal, technological and ethical implications surrounding such issues as privacy, control of information, and identity.
and SF authors. 13 These are only two of many examples of lively debate being occasioned by efforts to bring FTA METHODS to bear on issues that have already been the subject of influential FTA studies.
b Manchester Institute of Innovation research, United kingdom 1. Introduction The paper addresses Future-oriented technology analyses (FTA) in the context of the issues that ought to be considered for its application to support the quest for new forms of governance embracing governments, wider
Setting a new landscape for FTA ACTIVITIES around the concept of governance, is the aim of the paper while shedding some light on the issues
Setting a new landscape for the FTA, the paper concludes with those issues where the FTA COMMUNITY is starting to devote attention,
The paper concludes with those issues in which the FTA COMMUNITY is starting to devote attention to as well as those it still ought to consider. 2. History Governance is an outcome of the continual battle between risk and regulation.
a series of diagrams are used later to illustrate some of the issues that will need to be incorporated into any future mantra of governance and the evolution of S&t.
Hence, a core issue to CSR is partnership development. 2()TD$FIG Fig. 1. The new governance landscape.
or the trade-offs nor does the enthusiasm of a stakeholder group necessarily signify the importance of an issue either to the company or to the world.
The issue of the causal sequence between financial and social environmental performance remains unresolved. Descriptive research suggests that managers focus on the economic dimension of CSR revealing two shortcomings on firms'approach CSR
environmental andsocial issues can becomeeconomically relevant for companies. CSRGOES beyondcompliancewiththe lawandobviouslynot all externalities are internalised. For this reason stakeholders put firms'under additional pressure to internalise more of the social and environmental externalities that they create.
SRI plays an important part in creating corporate and public awareness about CSR issues and about the active role that the financial community can play in furthering social causes without suffering financially.
and processes address the complex issue of literacy asymmetries of different stakeholders? How can FTA strategies
Thus issues underlying social reaction to new technologies and the undisclosed ways in which industries take decisions must be resolved.
a new role for FTA The new role this paper suggests for FTA brings with it issues
/Futures 43 (2011) 279 291 288 community's readiness to address global issues and to building governance at a global level.
At the same time, the contribution and intervention of FTA on global issues still needs to be conceptualised better to enable the community to take action.
The current paper goes beyond the issues already outlined by Cagnin et al. 43. It does so by indicating that the time has come for the FTA COMMUNITY to go beyond the current major focus of identifying
and Conferences was expressed the concern by some attendees that an opportunity was being missed to use the assembly of Strategic foresight experts to gain more insights into the state of Foresight content regarding critical issues and trends,
Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues as well as persistent problems or trends''(http://horizonscanning. defra. gov. uk last visited on March 14, 2009.
Sometimes it is referred as future oriented information, sometimes more like emerging issues. Hiltunen 16 has tried to clarify the confusion about the weak signal definitions
by combining signal, issue and interpretation in the concept of the‘‘future sign, ''which more holistically describes how these signals relate to change.
, Moral & Legal Issues 2. Science & Technology Science Culture & Discoveries Technology Progress Innovative, Transformative Applications & Products 3. Energy Current Energy Use
Trade, Debt and Related Globalization Issues BRIC Rapid Development Economies Climate change, Global Warming=sustainable ecology, new economy 5. Geopolitics & Security East-West
, North-South Issues, Governance, Health of Democracy, Failed States Global, Cyber terrorism & Nuclear & Bio WMD Water, Food and Resource Shortages, Disasters O. Saritas,
governance in dealing with critical issues Escalation of terrorism and political instability Increased global unrest related to resource shortage and affordability Nationalist and nativist backlash prevents the world from realising globalization
and puts extreme stress on infrastructure Economic measures to meet international environmental commitments Growing localisation in response to supply chain vulnerability Foreign affairs fail to be harmonised to cope with global issues Patterns
and deniers create discontinuity Global security issues rise, e g. nuclear crisis O. Saritas, J. E. Smith/Futures 43 (2011) 292 312 308 2016
Detecting and analysing emerging science and technology issues: the EFMN issue analysis, Foresight 10 (2008) 6, 90 102.3 DCDC, The DCDC Global Strategic Trends Programme:
2007 2036, third edition, Swindon, 2007. Available at: http://www. mod. uk/NR/rdonlyres/94a1f45ea883049db-B319-DF68C28D561D/0/strat trends 17mar07. pdf (last visited on:
''This raises the issue of when those responsible for the foresight project should hand it over to the relevant stakeholders.
'2 but there is also value in selecting topics that are likely to arouse strong interest. 3 The challenge for high impact FTA is to select issues that have both a long time horizon,
This would suggest the need for continuing evolution of the format of the conference so as to engage policy-makers directly with issues in
since many policy interventions (and the actors responsible for them) are confronted regularly with unforeseen adverse some authors even call them perverse effects. 2. The issue of uncertainties
The less the issue is structured pre the more open is the method and the less effects are excluded from the beginning.
A typical issue, which goes through the history of transport planning, is the case that quantitative modelling is used
Two crucial issues in all TPMS have been the assumption of stability in model coefficients over time
which the question of clarifying the assumptions of modelling still is a crucial issue: the planning of an underground railway station for the City of Stuttgart,
Another issue in the context of the S21 planning is a good example for a known unknown.
B generating new solutions to issues; and B enabling alternative actions. An example of Reframing from Battram (2000:
Promoting variation in practical policy making terms can mean using several options to achieve an intended outcome as implementing a variety of policies to address the same issue increases the likelihood of achieving desired outcomes.
or to respond to a common issue. Identifying influencing factors and removing barriers to facilitating variation. 3. Study from past and current experiences
Topics of some previous reports have included issues such as regional development and the effects of ageing of population.
the government commissioned several studies on issues concerning the effects and ways to prevent or adapt to climate change.
The team consisted of more than 140 people who represented a broad spectrum of expertise relevant to climate and energy issues.
The project team from FFRC consisted of five researchers, with experience both in methodologies applied in the exercise and in climate and energy issues.
value-laden issues, increase social learning and in themselves advance social change (Robinson et al. 2011, p. 757).
Jungk emphasises that ordinary citizens should be invited to participate in futures workshops to elaborate issues that affect their lives.
Hence the most important information needs concerned possible development paths in key energy consuming sectors (transport, housing and industry), the additional questions concentrated on these issues.
The decision-makers have a huge variety of issues to deal with and one cannot expect the politicians
Presumably the original result was politically too difficult an issue to consider at the time.
namely encouraging creativity and a wide variety of options and weak emerging issues. Seen from the present situation in particular after the global financial crises, the anticipated possibility of degrowth economy is not an insignificant option
thus increasing awareness of these concepts and related issues. This may be seen partly as a result of the scenario approach which provided concise narratives of long term futures with one robust national goal:
His main research interests are in environment, energy and security issues. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 315 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
In this paper we will address the issue how useful assessments can be made, given the enormous,
An integral part of the Nanoned programme (3%of the budget) is the assessment of social, political, economical and environmental/health issues.
First, the Royal Society and the Royal Academy of Engineering in the UK have incorporated these issues into their study (commissioned by the UK government,
Some organizations ventilate their concerns on this topic and a few research programs have been initiated to address these issues.
30 ETC group, Playing god in the Galapagos, News Release (2004)( March), Issue 84.31 S. J. Tans, A r. M. Verschueren, C. Dekker, Room-temperature
which shares a sense of social commitment about a certain issue. 3. Action. Foresight develops and implements strategic visions through detailed action plans,
The issue of sustainable development (SD) has been chosen because it is a key challenge for contemporary societies,
The lack of studies about this issue is primarily due to two major difficulties: its complexity and its uncertainty.
This exercise relied on a systematic, ongoing participation process with experts in SD issues. Change drivers affecting social attitude toward SD were grouped into two axes:
determining parametric implications Once functional implications have been determined, a set of parametric indicators related to standard sustainability issues (Kates et al.
The final shape adopted by the localities will be a meld of several issues whose major assumptions and deterministic results are summarised as follows.
On the one hand, it offers a comprehensive future vision of a territorial issue and its functional implications, and on the other hand, it encompasses analytical and spatial tools with a view to developing quantitative projections for specific issues.
Third quantitative analysis can lend coherence and credibility to scenario exercises. However, modelling tools should support the process
the scope of FTA ACTIVITIES has widened to cover a wide variety of issues. This has been mainly due to the increasing importance of technological and organisational innovation;
and analyse the social, economic, legal, technological and ethical issues related to identity, privacy and security in the forecasted
which acts as a powerful tool for the exploration of the long-term future of closely interacting policy-related issues (including human development, social change and environmental sustainability).
and the issues it brings to prominence need to catalyse major innovations in organisations and governance',
The papers presented in this special issue address the above issues by exploring from different angles the growing demand for forward-looking intelligence in times of crisis and uncertainty,
by zooming in on the issue of unpredictability, in line with Linstone's argument on the limitations of forecasting in times of transition between two eras.
Here we touch only two issues: weak signals and scenario methodologies. In future-oriented research, the nature and implications of‘weak signals'have been debated actively during the last few years (Mendonça et al. 2004;
and the narrative structures (Wright 2005) that are used to make sense of the issue at hand. As decision-making tends to be inherently a political process,
The critical issue here is the balance between reliability and external validity (e g. surveys provide reliable data distributions
The next section illustrates how knowledge relevant to FTA can be elicited showing the practical implications of many of the issues raised above. 6. Combining quantitative
because the role of anticipatory actions is a key issue in literature on strategic management (Ansoff 1991;
The following issue in particular remains largely unexplored: how do managers design their strategic foresight approach in different environments and thus under different conditions of uncertainty?
and market issues, such as moves by suppliers and established competitors. The time frame is usually 10 15 years for Global Scenarios,
and integrating analyses of future changes in the macro environment into market and product issues. Foresight activities address major trends and forces in the political, economic, infrastructural, social,
which progresssivel links macro drivers of change with specific management objectives and business issues. The outputs from foresight activities provide a wide basis of information which explores longaan medium-term changes in customers'needs and lifestyles,
So far, scholars in strategic management have unexplored left a key issue of environmental change: this regards the impact of drivers of change on the identity of the main activities of the value chain and the main components of the business (micro) environment, that is, rivals, suppliers, customers, substitute products,
We define this issue‘boundary uncertainty':'it is the difficulty to figure out who the main players
Our arguments suggest that a crucial issue is the ability to distinguish continuous drivers of change from discontinuous ones.
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