, NDIA Systems Engineering Conference online at, http://lincoln. gsfc. nasa. gov/trl/Nolte2003. pdf 2003.8 NASA, HRST Technology assessments.
Proceedings of ISSI 2009-The 12th International Conference of the International Society for Scientometrics and Informetrics, Rio de janeiro, Brazil, 2009, pp. 154 164.17 C. Zhang, D. H
The 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, System Dynamics Society, Seoul, South korea, 2010.416 C. Hamarat et al./
The 29th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, WASHINGTON DC, USA, 2011.4 W. Walker, P. Harremoës, J. Rotmans, J. Van der Sluijs, M. Van
The 30th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, St gallen, Switzerland, 2012.38 S. Bankes, Exploratory modeling for policy analysis, Oper.
T. H. Moon (Ed.),The 28th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, 2010, Seoul, Korea. 19 E. Alonso, J. Gregory, F. Field
M. H. Lee (Ed.),The 28th International Conference of The System Dynamics Society, 2010, Seoul, Korea. 27 Ventana Systems Inc, in:
followed by an open scientific conference in July 2007. The main research questions were: What methodological issues are salient in relation to the identification of emerging trends and change?
Proceedings of the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), FTA for Structural and Systemic transformations in Response to Grand Societal Challenges:
Guiding Exploratory Innovation and Strategy, the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA: 12 & 13,may 2011, May 13 2011.71 O. Saritas, J. Aylen, Using scenarios for roadmapping:
Examples of these participatory and future-oriented activities include consensus conferences in the US 24 and a consumer conference in Germany 25.
visiting conferences and other relevant actors internationally, organizing expert panels on different aspects of nanotechnology,
the democratic virtues of the consensus conference model, Public Underst. Sci. 17 (2008) 329 348.25 R. Zimmer, R. Hertel, G.-F. Böl, Bfr Consumer Conference Nanotechnology, Federal Institute for Risk assessment, Berlin
, 2009.26 P. Dannemand Andersen, B. Rasmussen, M. Strange, J. Haisler, Technology foresight on Danish nanoscience and nano-technology, Foresight, J. Futur.
Innovation Leadership Forum, UK (Russia) Three seminars in the framework of international conferences with researchers and company representatives in Nürnberg, London and Exeter) 4. City-driven systemic
and many more that heard of the INFU findings at conferences and other events there was an overwhelmingly positive response towards the thought-provoking and transformative nature of the INFU findings.
ISPIM conference Hamburg, 17 20th of June 2011, Lift conference Marseilles 2/3 july 2011 (INFU workshop), FTA conference Sevilla 2011,
and R&d Management Conference Manchester 2nd of June 2010 (INFU workshop). 465 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 References 1 O. Da Costa, P. Warnke, C
JRC-IPTS (Ed.),The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), Book of Abstracts, Sevilla, 2011.5 P.-B. Joly, A. Rip, M. Callon, Reinventing innovation, in:
Paper Presented at SMS-Conference, San francisco, 2001.20 E. Hiltunen, Was it a wild card or just our blindness to gradual change?
Received 25 june 2012 Accepted 17 august 2012 Available online 3 november 2012 Drawing upon the presentations made at the fourth conference on Future-oriented technology analysis,
It is inspired by the presentations made at the Fourth Conference on FTA but takes them as a point of departure rather than seeking either to report upon them
Taking the conference as a whole, regularly used keywords emphasised discontinuities with a discourse around grand challenges, transformations and disruptive change while references to adaptation and alignment hinted at strategies for coping Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 467 470 Corresponding author at:
and subsequently tracked through a series of special editions of multiple journals arising from the FTA conference series in Seville, for example, Scapolo 2;
As noted in the context of previous FTA conferences 8 the term‘future-oriented technology analysis'seeks to apply a wider collective identity around several strategic intelligence activities including technology foresight, forecasting, intelligence, roadmapping, assessment and modelling but faces a reality where the community regards FTA as the name
of the conference series and foresight as the label for most of the activities it presents.
In the taxonomy of transformations emerging at the conference 14, the distinction made by a European Science Foundation working group between recognised
Thanks are also due to the conference committee who acted as rapporteurs and captured the essence of
This Special issue, like many compendia arising out of a professional conference, offers a sample of the state of the art at a particular point in time.
In this case, the window on the state of Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) is provided by a conference held in 2011 in Seville, at the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) of the European commission's Joint research Centre.
These conferences, organized by IPTS, aimed to bring together academics, practitioners, and policy makers from across Europe and around the world to discuss FTA.
The 2011 conference focused on an important topic, the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in response to grand societal challenges.
and discussed at the 2011 FTA Conferences. Papers that overall covered a wide range of points-of-view
and in particular improving the‘‘embedding of Foresight into policy making processes''goals that have resonated strongly in all four FTA conferences.
Starting with the very first FTA conferences, participants have signalled their concern that an excessive disparity of interests, theoretical starting points,
Indeed, a retrospective examination of a range of documents and recollections from all of the conferences underscores a consistent
Symptomatic of this danger, many voices across all of the FTA conferences call for clarification regarding the impact or utility of FTA in terms of policy making and more general outcomes for society.
Without finding ways to cover this range of FTA there is the danger that the FTA conferences become a set of disconnected conversations,
Hopefully the FTA and Foresight communities will be able to continue to build humanity's capacity to understand the future through conferences such as FTA,
such as Futures Workshops, Citizens Panels and Conferences/Workshops. In high power distance societies, we could expect expertise and evidence based foresight methodologies,
Conversely, Consensus Conferences and User Panels are used widely in Denmark, which has a lower uncertainty avoidance index.
such as futures workshops, citizen panels and consensus conferences. It must also be noted that together with the other Nordic countries,
(conferences, workshops, stakeholder inclusion. The Research2015 process included foresight methods such as horizon scanning, expert panels, user panels, dialogue meetings, conferences and workshops.
In Fig. 2, the foresight methods that were applied in the two cases are indicated using Popper's Diamond,
Acknowledgements An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 4th International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 12 13 may 2011, JRC Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS) in Seville, Spain.
Kickoff Conference of the European foresight Platform EFP, 14/15 June, Vienna, 2010, Available: http://www. foresight-platform. eu/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Key-messages-EFP-Conference-FINAL3-100623. pdf (accessed 20.12.11)( Online.
2 T. Ko nno la, F. Scapolo, P. Desruelle, R. Mu, Foresight tackling societal challenges:
Forth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) FTA and Grand Societal Challenges Shaping and Driving Structural and Systemic transformations SEVILLE, 12 13,may 2011. 7 J. Irvine, B
i) promotion through flyers, the project's website and marketing material distributed in both academic conferences and policy debates;(
and industry communities (results have been presented in a number of conferences). It is important to highlight that an international approach was sought throughout the exercise.
Contributed paper for the 2007 conference on corporate R&d (CONCORD: new and emerging issues in corporate R&d, JRC-IPTS, 8-9/10/07, 2007.25 M. Taish, J. Cassina, B. Cammarino, S. Terzi, N
Poster presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, 2011.29 V. Brummer, T. Ko nno la, A. Salo, Foresight within era nets:
and the next conference is scheduled for the 16 17 october 2008 in Seville. This biannual event is becoming a reference within the FTA COMMUNITIES to increase understanding of the advances occurring in the field of FTA for academics
Paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), Seville, 12 13,may 2011. K. De Moor et al./
Proceedings of Yeditepe International research Conference on Foresight (Yircof 2009), Istanbul, Turkey, 2009.12 O. Saritas, Innovation Foresight and Foresightful Innovation in Europe and beyond, in:
Proceedings Participatory Design Conference, 2008, pp. 186 189.14 J. Schot, A. Rip, The past and future of constructive technology assessment, Technological forecasting and Social Change 54 (1997) 268
Proceedings of the 2010 43rd Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences, IEEE Computer Society, 2010.23 E. Von Hippel, Lead users:
Proceedings of the 8th international interactive conference on Interactive TV & Video, ACM, Tampere, Finland,(2010), pp. 15 22.25 E. Von Hippel, The dominant role of users
Proceedings of the Third international conference on Human-centred software engineering (HCSE'10), Springer-verlag, Berlin Heidelberg, 2010, pp. 111 118.29 W. Gaver, A. Boucher, S
Annual British Academy of Management Conference, 2008.6 F. Okumus, A framework to implement strategies in organizations, Management Decision 41 (2003) 871 882.7 D c. Hambrick, A a
Performance Measurement Conference, Cambridge, 2000.31 S. Tonchia, Linking performance measurement system to strategic and organizational choices, International Journal of Business Performance 2 (2000) 15
Proceedings of the 20th International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, Italy, 2002.64 K. Linard, C. Fleming, L. Dvorsky, System dynamics as the link between corporate vision
20th System Dynamics International Conference, Italy, 2002.65 F. Schoeneborn, Linking balanced scorecard to system dynamics, in:
Proceeding 21st International Conference of the System Dynamics Society, New york, 2003.66 A. Butler, S. R. Letza, B. Neale, Linking the balanced scorecard to strategy, Long Range
Proceedings from the 3rd International Conference on Performance Measurement and Management: Research and Action, Boston, MA, 17 19,july 2002), pp. 85 92.68 A. Fink, B. Marr, A. Siebe, J. P. Kuhle, The future scorecard:
R&d Management Conference (RADMA), Lisboan, Portugal, 2004.41 C. Jasner, Walk of pain, Mckinsey Wissen 17 (2006) 44 49.42 W. G. Dyer
DIME Conference Organizing for Networked Innovation, Milano, 2010.60 P. van der Duin, M. Sule, W. Bruggeman, Deltas for the future:
The papers that form this special section were selected from those presented at the Third Internatiiona Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis held 16 17 october 2008 in Seville, Spain.
This biannual conference provides a common platform for user communities of foresight, forecasting and technology assessment to reflect on these challenges.
The third conference focused on the impact that FTA can have on policy and decisiionmaking and its implications.
building on a typology proposed during the first FTA conference in Seville by the Technology Future Analysis methods Working group (see Table 1). Keenan
the Third International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis arrived at various general recommendations for increasing the impacts of FTA ACTIVITIES in policy-making,
Apart from these general recommendations, individuua papers presented at the conference proposed a wide variety of methodological approaches that could improve policy impact.
United nations Conference on Trade and Development. Available at<http://www. unctad. org/Templates/Download. asp?
Several conferences on specific applicattion have since been held in the US (Roco and Bainbridge, 2002).
when child is ill Book a ticket for a conference Meet a business associate in a restaurant Transportation Journey
Paper presented at European Communicatiion Policy Research Conference (Eurocpr), held 31 march 1 april 2008, Seville, Spain.
Mark. boden@ec. europa. eu. The Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) held in May 2011, focussed on the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in global and national structures
This introductory paper provides an overview of selected conference contributions and the perspectives in which they address key issues in the development and implementation of FTA in relation to these challenges.
The Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) entitled‘‘FTA and Grand Societal Challenges: Shaping and Driving Structural and Systematic Transformations organised by the Institute of Prospective Technological Studies of the European commission's Joint research Centre (JRC-IPTS) was held in May 2011.
This edition of the conference focussed on the need and potential of FTA to address disruptive transformations in global and national structures, systems, rules and practices in response to grand societal challenges.
adapt and respond pro-actively to change. 1 A closing summary of the FTA Conference outcomes in relation to policy needs by Georghiou (2011) highlighted the extent to which the global scale, complexity,
One particular feature of the 2011 FTA Conference was the organisation of two invitation-only sessions devoted to good practice in foresight for policy.
Case study evidence is a core The role of FTA in responding to grand challenges. 137 feature of every FTA conference.
as well as to the FTA conference more generally, clearly demonstrate there is a growing volume of valuable and appropriable experiennc in the development and application of fta, in terms of both the process and methods and the organisational context in
Notes 1. Introduction, Fourth International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA.<<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/intro. html>accessed March 2012.138.
Georghiou, L. 2011)‘ Connecting conference outcomes with policy needs, options and implications'paper presented during final plenary session at the Fourth International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, held Seville, Spain
planning for small and very large events such as the last three national S&t conferences organized by the CGEE
wild cards, SWOT analysis, roadmapping, web survey and interviews, expert panel, conference and workshops, multi-criteria and stakeholder analysis, indicator developmeent benchmarking,
a case study in learning from the future',paper presented at International Conference Probing the Future:
and the firm-centered phase (OECD 2008)( see Fig. 1). The 1978 National science Conference coincided with the launch of the economic reform
is considered widely to have been the response by then-Premier Li peng to concerns voiced by scientists at the Political Consultation Conference (zhengxie) in March 1997 that basic research was being neglected in S&t funding.
The Political Consultation Conference is a political body in the Chinese political system. Its members are well-known scientists
They usually take the opportunities provided by the conferences to provide policy suggestions to the government.
The 1978 Science Conference functioned as a starting-point for a renovation of the S&t system by acknowledging S&t as a productive force.
The Impact of Economic Ideas on RTD Policies, 4s/EASST Conference 2000, held 27 30 september 2000, Vienna.
Section 3 will draw primarily on recent empirical research presented at the FTA 2011 Conference, 1
including those presented at the FTA 2011 Conference, address the challenge of transformation, FTA organisation and governance modes,
by analysing recent contributions to the literature as presennte at the 2011 FTA Conference. The analysis identifies the types of transformations addressed, the governance modes in
The majority of the paper presented at the 2011 FTA Conference, despite reporting on experiences derived from a single foresight exercise, indicate increasing evidence of institutionalised forms of FTA.
Notes 1. This approach of drawing on the papers of the most RECENT FTA conference has been adopted,
because the 2011 FTA Conference was explicitly dealing with disruptions and how to deal with them from the side of FTA.
Due to the broad coverage of the conference, the contributions can be regarded as reflecting the current state of the debate.
FTA Conferences on<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta. html>accessed 15 dec 2011.4. FARHORIZON Innovation policy Workshop (Weber and Georghiou 2010) and ERAPRISM Policy Dialogue Brief on Innovation policy (Georghiou and Harper 2010),<http://farhorizon. portals. mbs. ac. uk
'Paper presented at the FTA 2011 Conference, held 12 13 may, Seville, Spain.<<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed 15 dec 2011.
<http://ec. europa. eu/research/conferences/2004/ntw/pdf/final report en. pdf>accessed 15 dec 2011.
'Paper presented at the FTA 2011 Conference held 12 13 may, Seville, Spain.<<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed 15 dec 2011.
'Paper presented at the FTA 2011 Conference, held 12 13 may, Seville, Spain.<<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed 15 dec 2011.
'Paper presented at the FTA 2011 Conference held 12 13 may, Seville, Spain.<<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/Programmeandpapers. htm>accessed 15 dec 2011.
'paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, held Seville, Spain, 12 may 2011.
A front-line report',presentation at the Joint Programming Conference, held Brussels, 18 9 october 2010.<<www. jointprogramming2010. eu/pdfpresenntation1. 2%20-%20seiser. pptx>accessed 15 march 2012.
experts invited, Twitter accounts, blogs and websites, conferences, reports and papers..Preliminary assessment and selection:
4. web-based search engines as Google, Google news Timeline, 5 Google Insight6 and Bing7. expert review and survey. visits to conferences
surveys and visits to conferences and seminars while other tools like the initiation of a wiki and the active use of blogs and micro-blogging can encourage wider participation and dialogue.
A similar conclusion can also be drawn from attending conferences. As conferences are focused often more on new ideas
the assessment of discussions can be an interesttin way in which to collect signals. Conferences may also be particularly interesting for making contact with future-oriented experts as well as policy-makers in the relevant domains.
A new way of collecting signals is through active blogging and micro-blogging (Twitter. Twitter is an internet social-network and micro-blogging platform with both mass and interpersonal communication features for sharing 140-character messages (known as tweets), with other users (known as followers.
Conferences may not primarily be interesting as places where one can become aware of new signals as this informattio may be obtained sooner in other places.
Analysis and interpretation Focused expert review High High High Wiki Low Low Low Twitter High low Low Surveys Low High High Conferences Low Medium High
Focused expert review which is assisted by experts'survey, literature review and attending conferences. The first combination can be considered to be more in line with the exploratory scanning approach,
expert review+survey+conferences) Automation tools Search engines, automated news aggregators, topic finders Text-mining based on proximity of words and frequency of terms.
conferences for additional signal/issue selection and refinement of reference frame (observation time depends on participants and scanner) Signal/issue selection criteria Predefined criteria based on sources other futurists use (sense of credibilitty
For literature review and selection of conferences same reference framework Verification method Cross-referencing with other articles Discussions with experts Discussions with experts;
conferences further outlook in literature Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 217 Table 5. Analysis of three combined approaches across evaluation criteria (a) Semi-automated, participatory approach (b
) Semi-automated, non-participatory approach (c) Manual combined approach (Twitter/wiki+processing of weak signals)( Focused expert review+text-mining)( Focused expert review+survey+conferences) Connection
Visit of conferences to help confirm findings and clustering Cross-checking with results from recent foresight exercises Duration:
as reported in literature/discussed in conferences Origins High Medium Medium As included/connected to info piece As revealed by text-mining;
as reported in literature/discussed in conferences Ethical, legal, societal issues Medium High High Expert discussions, futurists symposia,
and as discussed at conferences Filtering based on relevance, and credibility Medium Medium High Through discussion with peers In text-mining dependent on sources fed into database.
In conferences through discussions with peers Existing strategies and relevant stakeholders Medium Medium High As reported/criticised in raw resources.
Conferences are a place where existing strategies/policies are discussed usually Policy implications assessment Medium High High Associated policy implications of emerging issues are analysed by comparing emerging issues identified with topics
Conferences are useful to recruit potential policy workshop participants (continued) 218. E. Amanatidou et al. create new options taking into account the diverse informattio needs of policy-makers on emerging issues.
These issues were complemented with additional issues from the FTA 2008 conference survey. 3 3. 2 Assessment of issues The formulated issues were assessed in an online survey by some 270 external experts who represented foresight practitiooners
2. Effie Amanatidou, Anette Braun, Ville Brummer and Mika Mannermaa supported JRC-IPTS in reviewing four out of the six areas. 3. During the International Seville Conference
Experiences on an innovation platform in European agenda setting'in Proceedings of the FTA 2011 Conference, Seville,<http://foresight. jrc. ec. europa. eu/fta 2011/>accessed 26 september 2011.
are discussed at nearly every conference or workshop. But when a definition is called for, it is still unclear
FTA as part of the strategic planning of a distributed contract research organisation',paper presented at Third International Seville Conference on FTA, held Seville, Spain, 16 7 october 2008.
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