From this discussion we can identify a number of issues that must be faced if using foresight to identify priorities:
and the series of exercises in the Czech republic 9. On the other hand Havas and Keenan stress the important role that foresight has had in contributing to the realignment of the science system through bringing it to the fore of discussion and highlighting the missing links
and discussion on the possible advantages of the proposed framework for the characterisation of foresight projects as contribution to the policy-making process. 2. Characteristics of foresight projects To understand the impacts of foresight in the system,
Fixed Structured discussion and the generation of new ideas in the workshops Autonomous Creative brainstorming and ideation in the different scenario and roadmapping workshops.
Consensual The outputs drove discussions of national security challenges to provide input into capabilities needed to meet these challenges.
Autonomous There is freedom in discussion for social scenarios in each field, and the priority setting of science and technology based on technology foresight.
The outputs were used to drive the interdepartmental discussions of challenges to Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness Canada (PSEPC),
and be used to stimulate a wider discussion among stakeholders. 3. 4. Agora foresight (diverse perspectives
We expect that the developed framework can facilitate the discussion about the expectations and the management of foresight projects and about its impact on policy-making and society at large.
Bell and Olick 2 reframe the discussion about‘‘knowledge of the future''by arguing that we posit the future
and discussion when a new cycle of the foresight activity is to be launched. Wealso often see a hasty scramble
Of particular interest is the discussion of the subtask of interpretation, subtask (v). She portrays this as the conversion of translated knowledge into understanding.
Discussions of knowledge management, and efforts to plan relevant systems, may well focus on one or other of these polar types.
The earlier discussion of sensemaking and foresight phases can readily be related to such a SECI approach.
Discussions are captured on groupware systems or, more traditionally, on wall posters which provide a record of development and material for presentational purposes,
with discussion about the connections between ideas proving a good basis for exchanging information about implicit models and theories.
and linking the discussion of posits to practical actions in their own organisations. It is common for a scenario workshop to conclude with some effort at defining key actions
or priority areas for further work that emerge from the preceding discussions. This is typically a result of a major‘‘socialisation''process in the workshop that can be externalised
However, the discussion about multiple stakeholders'participation in public policy and corporate decision making has received very little attention from the FTA COMMUNITY who have taken for granted that FTA ACTIVITIES are participative.
The paper has been structured on the discussion of governance around three pillars: sociocultural evolution, corporate industrial activity and government.
The later discussion intends to enable the FTA COMMUNITY to reflect on how FTA ACTIVITIES can support the move towards more democratic societies and the potential impacts of FTA in governance.
and initiatives at the global level have been taken. 7. Discussion: FTA in support of new forms of governance Governance methods and systems have not been institutionalised on a broad and continuous basis possibly
Appendix A The following diagrams set out the metaphor that underlies the discussion in the text.
universities and business enterprises would it not be a useful addition to benefit from this expertise by developing a focused strategic discussion based around their experiences i e
The originators of this survey used the responses to lead a plenary discussion at the 2008 FTA Conference,
''van Notten et al. 11 and Mendonc¸a et al. 12 provide further discussion and examples on wild cards and shocks.
Overall the many obviously very thoughtful responses and the depth and scope of imaginative thinking inherent in these responses suggest a robust series of discussions
but there seem to be emerging several instances of avenues that could benefit from further discussion,
Reflecting a broader discussion on the benefit and limits of combining different methods, it has to be noted that using numerical values to support decision-making may be preferred a procedure
There is a discussion about the potentials of discursive tools in the literature related to participative Technology assessment (pta;
''The latter ones are similar to the third category that Sven Ove Hansson (1996) has added to the discussion of uncertainty.‘‘
where a predefined set of key questions is used to guide the discussion. The openness or closeness is determined by the degree of pre-structure in the design of such methods.
It is not possible to illustrate the long and complex discussion process which accompanied the planning.
Among others, one central element of the conflict about S21 was the discussion about the capacity of the new station.
Runde, J. 1998),‘Clarifying Frank Knight's discussion of the meaning of risk and uncertainty'',Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 22, pp. 539-46.
and to stimulate discussion on whether some development paths are more desirable than others. The scenario process was facilitated by the Finland futures research centre (FFRC) of the University of Turku in late 2008.
but the results of the ongoing foresight and scenario work were communicated to the general public via the internet for comments and discussion.
there was much discussion among the FFRC team and the staff of the Prime minister's Office on whether or not attaching numerical values to scenarios stretching all the way to year 2050 is advisable.
Publication of the report launched a wide public discussion on low emissions communities and low-carbon society,
there is an open discussion on the possible toxic effects of nanoparticles (incl. nanotubes) on the environment and inside the human body.
At the level of the society we observed open discussions on different topics. This indicates a growing attention for various aspects related to nanotubes as part of nanotechnology.
and discussion In this paper we proposed a route to deal with the intrinsic uncertainties of a new emerging field like nanotechnology.
) The objective of the think pieces was to fuel the discussion and provide the necessary material and input for the scenario construction process.
and officer safety alike. 4. Discussion 4. 1 Advantages of using FTA in law The FTA METHODS
I believe that the employment of modelling systems in political discussion and deliberation exercises should also be used in the preparatory phases of legislative procedures.
as complementary and supportive instruments of discussion and decision. FTA should help Law and not transform itself into Law.
7. For an overview of the objectives, the timeline and the structure of the project see www. lawofthefuture. org 8. The project organized the discussion around three tracks:
) For a discussion of how expert quantitative and qualitative information may be joined coherently, see Loveridge and Saritas (2011).
It is perhaps not ill-founded to state that the treatment of central challenges of the sustainability discussion,
Many discussions about nanotechnology tend towards a problematic generalisation. When scientists, politicians, journalists or dpeople in the streetst are discussing nanotechnology,
or prevent a constructive discussion. The second part is complicated more: Most activities that are considered as R&d in the field of nanotechnology are basic or applied research rather than technology development.
For a detailed discussion of the different types of roadmaps, their scopes, objectives, methodologies and time-scales see e g.
Q 6 The probably most comprehensive overview of relevant research on and current knowledge about roadmapping, together with a critical discussion of the potential of roadmapping approaches which are applied usually to sustaining technologies to offer insights into disruptive technologies,
Very often, in these discussions the existing or expected benefits arising from nanotechnology-based or-related innovations are claimed for nanotechnology.
a discussion of these consequences in the context of nanotechnology often refused. Such an argumentative asymmetry for many observers leaves the impression of dishonesty or disguise
'These contentious matters form a platform for discussion and the authors conclude that FTA's practical outcomes are underpinned by subjective opinion in many dimensions.
and ontological expansion shed some new light on recent discussions on foresight research. Here we touch only two issues:
The above discussion indicates that such approaches have limited only potential in future-oriented analysis. Future emerges in a periphery where robust facts
'These contentious matters form a platform for discussion, concluding that FTA's practical outcomes are underlain by human behaviour,
The paper concludes (Sections 7 and 8) with a further discussion of situations that FTA is likely to face in the future. 2. Getting a feeling for the range of FTA Can the notion of the future as a‘black hole'be contested?
or sophisticated (in English sophistication means/involves deception) discussion taking place. Perhaps it is better to settle for a discussion of lower order,
a route that will be taken in what follows. FTAIS said to provide a common umbrella for foresight,
the discussion during the elicitation unearths how the expert's thinking proceeds. How that responds to seeding his
Skills in understanding what algorithms do in producing FTA outcoome becomes essential for presentation to the polity for discussion
Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank Joanne Roberts of Northumbria University for helpful discussions during the preparations of this paper.
The discussion is organised along the three objectives of foresight as discussed in Section 2: priority-setting, networking and building visions.
The discussion is summarised in Table 3. The first generic lesson is that the formal articulation of futures takes place in situations where expectations abound
Discussion Our work relates to several fields of research in strategy and organisation. First, we define the concepts of‘boundary'uncertainty
and discussion 4. 1. Landscape mapping of IAS As mentioned above, one of the purposes of generating a Sandia-specific map of IAS was to benchmark the map against the mental models of IA leads.
and initiating direct discussion with their inventors. Alternatively other cross-chart foci are quite possible.
This provides a framework for discussion and rapid feedback. Such visualisattion stimulate workshop interactions and create a framework for drawing out the intelligence held by the experts in the workshop,
and applications. 5. Discussion and future prospects We have worked at FIP for several NESTS, including nanobiosensors (Huang et al. 2010), deep brain stimulation (Robinson et al. 2011),
methods to get information for discussion on strategies of sustainable growth through science and technology. It seeks to address the combination of outputs in an objective manner to identify expected areas of future innovation toward the desired future as well as related areas that are supposed to play a key part.
or discussion and a mission-oriented approach. Information from the Delphi method and scenario is converged using text mining to position scientific and technological areas in a big picture.
while the following themes will be central in discussions in the days to come: B the fusion of several areas in science and technology;
It started with a discussion on social goals and their relation to science and technology, considering changes on a global or national scale.
Based on the discussion, four global or national challenges were set as the goals of science, technology and innovation.
1. interdisciplinary or diversified discussion; and 2. the mission-oriented or problem-solving approach. The main points are expert panels by cross-disciplinary theme rather than by technological discipline, the active participation of specialists in social science and humanities,
discussion by a variety of participants including the younger generation and local residents, and focused discussion rather than dealing with subjects exhaustively.
Figure 1 Overview of the 9th Foresight PAGE 8 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 2. 1 Setting global or national challenges The first step of the exercise
The preliminary discussion was conducted to identify the missions of science and technology that would play an important role in drawing up a picture of future society.
Four expert panels were organized for this discussion and designated as‘‘Security'',Safety (Reassurance on safety)''International collaboration'',and‘‘International competitiveness''.
The results of the preliminary discussion clearly indicated the importance of systematic integration in other words, science and technology to be embedded in society as a socialized system.
With the discussion above and the dramatic changes occurring inside and outside Japan as a backdrop,
whereby the important areas were extracted through integrated discussions without being bound by existing disciplines. For this reason
The scopes and main focuses of the discussion were determined by panel members, and 12 panels accordingly discussed the topics
had extensive and interdisciplinary discussions, and created a positive scenario each about future changes that should be made;
This study aims to provide an initial platform on which the people in each region deepen their own independent discussions about their future vision.
The discussions include a variety of aspects required such as institutional renovation, interregional cooperation, and the region's place in the era of globalization. 3. Integrative study 3. 1 Advantage of combination A good public investment in research and development needs an overall picture of facets of science
On the other hand, scenario gives sufficient discussion on scientific and technological events that make a direct contribution to the challenges,
For such themes with less matching, an out-of-the-box discussion is needed on the contributions that science
or discussion and a mission-oriented or problem-solving approach. Three investigative studies were carried out, employing methods of Delphi, scenario,
Further discussion should be focused on which research framework could lead to the better understanding of the overall picture and the direction toward the future.
Originality/value The transfer of foresight results into research policy making has featured not prominently so far in discussions of foresight efforts and methods.
but in this paper we restrict ourselves to their discussion in the context of research policy making.
2006) for the four types of dialogues in their discussion be applied to strategic dialogues? Welp et al.
but not suitable in discussions with stakeholders since many of the issues are politically sensitive and/or inconsistent with the self-image of stakeholders.
The‘‘dialogue''aspect is in line with the definition of Bohm (1996) who draws a clear distinction between‘‘discussion''as an exchange of views aimed at winning an argument
Well-structured summaries based on desk research help to prepare the discussion and to describe the starting point in more detail.
Susskind and Movius, 2009) can already be useful at this stage in that discussions and guiding questions in workshop are framed in terms of needs and interests rather than positions.
Thus, a constructive framework for further discussions throughout the process can be established. 4. 2 Step 2:
The scenarios are turned subsequently into prose based on the results of discussion in the workshop. The draft is circulated for review and completion by the experts over the course of two feedback loops.
and presented in structured form at the beginning of the workshop to kick-start discussions. At this stage the strategic dialogue has overcome the following challenges:
The resulting outline of a possible new type of innovation cluster has proved to be stable throughout further discussions in various policymaking contexts
‘‘roundtable discussions''and interviews. Twelve roundtable discussions were facilitated with senior representation from a cross-section of policy areas, mainly from government ministries and agencies (approximately 90 participants in total.
Each discussion had four to five focus questions to ascertain the degree to which these drivers
and trends were visible and relevant for their thematic areas, the potential impact they might have on The irish national context over the coming ten to 15 years,
and the degree to which organisations were already addressing issues raised by them (see Table II for focus questions used in the roundtable discussions).
The participants in the roundtable discussions were grouped into common areas of interest. Half a day was allocated to each discussion
and participants were asked to focus on three or four key thematic groups of drivers (briefing material on the drivers had been distributed to participants ahead of discussions).
The roundtables provided immediate calibration and focus in analysing the drivers. There were instances in which participants did not feel that certain drivers
These were produced by synthesising the Table II The roundtable discussion focus questions 1 The initial drivers work has identified some global drivers that may be relevant.
anticipation of likelihood and impact Participants in the roundtable discussions were given time individually to appraise the drivers
One potential disadvantage of the latter approach is that it may limit discussions and neglect potentially important national RTDI issues.
a contextualist analysis and discussion'',Technological forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 74 No. 8, pp. 1374-93.
and B discussion and dissemination of results. More than 2, 000 experts from 40 Russian regions took part in the Delphi survey,
It does so by critically reflecting on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis.
FTA practices Fundamental change and transformations Grand challenges 1. Introduction Drawing upon a critical reflection on the selected papers for this special issue as well as on the discussions that took place at the fourth Seville International Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis,
and this paper summarises and furthers the discussion developed during the 2011 edition, building on the debates at the conference and between members of the conference Scientific Committee, to which the authors of this paper belong.
Nevertheless in the discussions at the 2011 FTA Conference some trends were identified suggesting that methodological combination may potentially become more common amongst FTA scholars and practitioners.
It is important to stress that the reflections in this paper are elaborated on the basis of discussions at the FTA conference and the debate (both before and after the event) between members of the Scientific Committee, to
or even tap different domains of knowing 8. A detailed discussion on the reasons for applying a combination of methods in social sciences goes beyond the scope of this paper,
is therefore of the essence. 9 8 During the 2011 FTA Conference a lively discussion was devoted to the shift of FTA usage from exploring potential risks to inspiring sustainable innovation.
The discussion and interpretation of results (including devising recommendations when sharing FTA findings with stakeholders who are expected to follow up with action are essential for building ownership whilst providing decisionmakker with insights on the limits of the FTA results.
and both the Scientific Committee and the participants of the 2011 Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis for the fruitful discussions that helped shaping and refining it.
a discussion paper, NCRM Methods Review Papers, NCRM/005. Unpublished, 2005. Available at: http://eprints. ncrm. ac. uk/89/1/Methodsreviewpaperncrm-005. pdf, last accessed July 2012.4 J. E. M. Sale, L. H. Lohfeld,
Both cases borrow necessarily the discussion of methods and tools that have grown explosively in recent years related to the biosciences, bioinformatics and evolutionary approaches.
are still not well taken in account in the variety of discussions found in the literature.
It is impossible to accomplish the full discussion of all these points in a short paper planned to a seminar talk.
and still absent from much of this discussion. To begin with it should be stand out that the notion of innovation belongs itself to that collection of fuzzy concepts,
business or politics (as in the case of globalization) or restricted to more scientific discussion rounds (the case of complexity),
when we focus the evolutionary analysis on technological innovations we are not necessarily simplifying the field of discussion,
This upswing in evolutionary economics was in great part due to the renewed interest in the discussion on long waves in economics during the last two decades
I have mentioned in this paper (see further discussion in the next section) and the necessary bridge to the danthropology of Techniquet discussed previously. 4. 3. To point 4:
The most important arguments introduced by Campbell in this discussion can be resumed: unlike biological evolution, characterized by direct trial and error adaptation processes,
To finalize the present discussion on point 4 I would like to add some other further aspects equally not yet considered as well:
Section 4 includes the discussion. Concluding remarks are made in Section 5. 2. Methodology: the adaptive policy-making framework and the Adaptive Robust Design approach 2. 1. The adaptive policy-making framework Under deep uncertainty,
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 408 418 4. Discussion and implications for Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) In this paper we proposed an iterative computational approach for designing adaptive policies that are robust
Several of our findings warrant further discussion. An important issue relates to the hedging action and the monitoring of the costs.
three case studies are reported in Section 3. Section 4 is a discussion of the results of these cases and their implications for FTA.
if they are used as predictions. 1. 2. Grand challenges The aim of this paper is to initiate a discussion on how scenario analysis can help to better cope with the grand challenges
where the motivation is oriented towards using the future scenarios for strategic discussions. The focus here is less on
the strategic discussion has its origin in uncertainty, both in the external environment and within the organization.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 5. Discussion Due to the social dynamic characteristic of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging 24.
In the first group, we found that the scenarios are used for supporting strategic discussions about futures that are shaped by surprise and confrontation.
IPTS and different past and present foresight network initiatives such as the European foresight Platform and Forlearn for organizing creative discussion platforms on foresight and scenario initiatives.
conducting studies on specific nano-subfields and by bringing together relevant actors from science and industry through workshops and expert discussion 6. Technology intelligence, technology assessment,
and became the subject of global discussion among NGOS 54 and reinsurance companies 55. These interventions can be characterized as uninvited participation 56
as well as how the public is constructed in such settings cf. 60,61. 5. Discussion and conclusion FTA ACTIVITIES were used to shape the emerging field of nanotechnology in the early stages (priority-setting
innovation) and group phone discussion 3. New spatial distribution of innovation innovation chain management Anna Trifilova and Bettina von Stamm Professors, Innovation Management;
The INFU visions gave rise to fundamental discussions among stakeholders regarding possible cultural transitions, new economic principles,
The discussion among policy makers went beyond simple priority setting within today's strategies. The debate tackled fundamental concerns such as adequate consultation procedures
We feel that these fundamental discussions were triggered because to some extent the INFU perspectives were transcending the underlying assumptions dominating today's perception of innovation.
including the authors of the papers in this special edition but going well beyond and into the discussions, formal and informal,
Certainly, over time the proportion of papers and discussions preoccupied with forecasting and deterministic roadmapping approaches to the future gave way to a growing awareness and acceptance of other methods,
It requires leadership and adequate platforms for discussion. However not unexpectedly, the appearance of this kind of gap also spurs efforts to find solutions.
Among the contributions to this discussion, the key conclusion is that there is no one-size-fits-all'approach to foresight.
In a discussion of the use of the concept of systems thinking in foresight, Saritas distinguishes between external and internal context 6. The external context is the set of STEEPV factors (Social, Technological, Economical, Environment, Political
Hence, the aim of this paper is to contribute, in general, to the discussion of national (or political, governing,
Section 2 briefly resumes the discussions on national culture and introduces a conceptual framework for analysing cultural differences in foresight and planning.
Section 4 concludes with a discussion of the findings in the two cases. In Section 5
The intermediate meetings involved the discussion of nine themes. For each meeting and each theme
a discussion paper was prepared that contained the government's overall objectives for the theme and key data and prerequisites.
P. D. Andersen, L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 13 4. 3. Discussion of the cases Neither Research2015 nor the Globalisation Strategy was recognised by their key
Nevertheless, the Globalisation Council's process included both expertiseorieente foresight methods (expert panels, expert discussion papers), evidence-oriented foresight methods (indicators and fact reports) and interaction-oriented foresight methods
L. B. Rasmussen/Futures 59 (2014) 5 17 15 5. Conclusion and perspectives This paper aims to contribute to the discussion of national cultures'effects on national foresight exercises.
In the international setting, those involved in the discussions may not be acquainted with foresight, or have different interpretations of it.
The JRC-IPTS presented a framework for the initial discussions in order to shape the key questions to be addressed (Fig. 1) and alternative ways to answer these.
During the initial discussions many project partners argued that the best way to engage with their informal network of contacts would be through methods other than those initially proposed, such as interviews and smaller workshops.
and special attention was given in the discussion to those features which were desired (desirability=3) and somewhat likely to happen by 2020 (likelihood>2). Based on the results of the vision building workshop a first draft of the IMS2020 Vision was developed by JRC-IPTS.
The framework also helps to focus discussions related to the design and implementation of the project by bringing together the identification and discussion of intended impacts with efforts to define each operational step and question related to guiding the process.
Initial efforts to arrive at a systemic understanding of the process, when combined with both open consultations
The framework10 used in the initial discussions (Fig. 1) was critical to link the strategic objectives of the project to the operational activities.
and has proved useful to kickoff discussions with diverse stakeholders with different or no understanding of foresight.
which required returning to previous discussions, clarifying decisions already taken and, most importantly, showing how elements would fit together within a bigger picture
These combined presentations, roundtable discussions and small groups'debates, always brought in different views on the same topic.
and discussions enabled through a wiki tool. As mentioned, the scenario and vision building process required considerable behaviour and expectation management.
In the first scenario building workshop a discussion of how scenarios could be deployed and the variables to be selected had to take place.
Here, although JRC-IPTS was facilitating and giving direction to the discussions, it asked project partners to rotate in chairing
and steering the discussions. Again this worked very well and partners felt very motivated during the two-day discussions,
which was critical to build ownership of results. 4. 4. A‘glocal'impact orientation The management of the exercise integrated discussions on the outcomes of the exercise from the very first project meetings.
The objectives of the exercise as well as the expected impacts on industry and policy were discussed also in meetings with the European commission.
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