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research, A-1220 Vienna, Austria Received 28 september 2006; received in revised form 14 march 2007; accepted 1 february 2008 Abstract Adaptive foresight has been developed at the crossroads of foresight and adaptive strategic planning.

At the end of a recent foresight and scenario development process in Austria, dealing with scenarios and options for establishing production consumption chains based on renewable resources,

38.20 Experiences with the approach of Transition Management have been made in Austria and in particular in The netherlands 39,26, 40.21 At the moment,

two projects are about to be finalised at national 41 and regional level 42 in Austria.

A Practical Guide to Regional foresight, FOREN final report, IPTS, Sevilla, 2001.18 UNIDO (Ed.),Technology foresight Manual. vol. 1 & 2, UNIDO, Vienna, 2005.19 E

Experiences with Adaptive foresight in Austria, in: M. Munch Andersen, A. Tukker (Eds. Perspectives on Radical changes to Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP.

I. Oehme, H. Rohracher, P. Späth, Transition zu nachhaltigen Produktionssystemen (Transition to sustainable production systems), Research report, ARC systems research, Vienna, 2005.40 B

Strategic guidelines, Report to the Austrian Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology BMVIT, Vienna, 2007.42 City of Vienna, Wiener Strategie für Forschung, Technologie und

Innovation Vienna Strategy for Research, Technology and Innovation, Vienna, 2007.43 K. M. Weber, A. Geyer, D. Schartinger, P. Wagner, Zukunft der Mobilität in Österreich.

and project interrelations, Phd thesis, University of Technology Vienna, Vienna, 2007. Dr. E. Anders Eriksson received his Phd In operations Research from KTH in Stockholm in 1986.

the last one involves the deepest mode of collaboration as the 18 partners from eight countries (Austria, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden,

In a survey conducted in 1998 among companies of 12 manufacturing sectors in Germany, Austria and Switzerland, 2 Nevertheless,

significance, satisfaction and suggestions for further research perspectives from Germany, Austria and Switzerland, Strateg. Change 14 (2005) 1 13.16 R. Phaal, C. J. P. Farrukh, D. R. Probert, Technology roadmapping A planning framework for evolution and revolution, Technol.

by the time of his departure in January 2000, had grown to be a leader in its field, with offices in Brighton, Amsterdam, Paris and Vienna.

Nazionale delle Ricerche, Italy), CSIC (Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Spain), Ludwig Boltzmann Gesellschaft (Austria),

She is working as research assistant at Vienna University and as teaching assistant at California State university Dominguez Hills.

and strategy process conducted in the city of Vienna. The paper gives a comprehensive review of the foresight and the assessment of its impacts on policy.

experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna K. Matthias Weber a, Klaus Kubeczko a, Alexander Kaufmann a & Barbara Grunewald a a Austrian Institute of technology, Department Foresight

and Policy development, Vienna, Austria Published online: 12 oct 2009. To cite this article: K. Matthias Weber, Klaus Kubeczko, Alexander Kaufmann & Barbara Grunewald (2009) Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis:

experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna, Technology analysis & Strategic management, 21:8, 953-969, DOI:

experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna K. Matthiasweber*,Klaus Kubeczko, Alexander Kaufmann and Barbara Grunewald Austrian Institute of technology, Department Foresight and Policy development, Vienna

, Austria In 2006 the City ofvienna launched a foresight and strategy process to revisit its urban research and innovation policy.

objectives and results of the Viennese innovation policy foresight and strategy process and the different impact dimensions will be analysed

Finally, some generic lessons learned from the Viennese experience will be discussed. Keywords: foresight; strategy process; innovation policy; policy impact 1. Introduction In 2006, the City of Vienna initiated a far-reaching and open strategy process on the orientation of its future research, technology and innovation (RTI) policy.

The aim was to develop, in a participatory process, a comprehensive strategic framework as well as concrete proposals for*Corresponding author.

By then, Vienna is aiming to be among Europe's leading metropolitan areas in research, technology and innovation,

The foresight experience of the City of Vienna will be discussed against this framework. First, we introduce the impact assessment framework (Section 2). Then the main features of the process design (Section 3)

which the experiences and impacts of the innovation policy foresight of the City of Vienna will be assessed,

and implementation Vienna is the key centre for science and research in Austria as well as in the wider central European area to

Austria is recognised increasingly as one of the leading European countries in research. Austria has accomplished major structural reforms, affecting universities as well as research funding bodies, many

of which are located in Vienna. Simultaneously, several Austrian regions have initiated or reinforced their RTI policies. Vienna already launched an active RTI policy in the early 1990s;

almost twenty years later the city is confronted with the necessity to revisit its RTI policy landscape.

At the same time, new challenges were identified that have to be tackled in order to keep pace with the international developments in science, technology and innovation,

and took first exploratory steps towards identifying future challenges for the RTI policy of the City of Vienna. 4 The research programme was implemented as a joint undertaking by the City of Vienna and Austrian Research centres.

the suggestion of launching a participatory foresight process as part of the research programme was rejected by the representatives of the City of Vienna in the management team of the programme.

which served as a backdrop for later elaborating elements of an RTI policy strategy for the city of Vienna.

Vienna as a centre of science. 3. 2. From fragmentation to strategic action:‘‘Wien denkt Zukunft'Following this preparatory phase,

it is captured not fully by The english translation‘Vienna Looks to the Future knowledge means change'.

report Public Forum Panel 2 Focus on research Panel 3 Science and Panel 4 Urban Panel report Panel report RTI-strategy Vienna Analysis of RTI

-policy in Vienna Panel report Opening Final event Figure 1. Process overview‘Wien denkt Zukunft'.

As a consequence, they should be addressed by all panels. 3. 3. Viennese RTI strategy goes public:

several Viennese organisations were not able to tell with whom they would cooperate on joint actions.

the RTI-strategy of the City of Vienna was presented to an equally large audience of several hundred participants, backed by the mayor, city councillors and key stakeholders.

and objectives for optimising the process of research and innovation with the help of RTI policy measures as available to the City of Vienna and embedded in the other policy levels (national and European) exerting an influence on the research and innovation scene

which should be achieved by 2015 (City of Vienna 2007a):(1) Increase Vienna's research expenditures to 4%of the gross city product;(

2) 22,000 individuals employed in the R&d sector;(3) 800 companies engaged in R&d;(4) 20%of the population having a university degree;(

(City of Vienna 2007a:(1) Making effective use of the potential for research, technology and innovation by creating adequate conditions for young people, irrespective of their origins,

5) Integrating Vienna's RTI in European networks and strengthening co-operation within the CENTROPE region in order to create a common RTI area that will successfully compete in Europe and in the world. 4. 3. From strategy to action:

the City of Vienna can provide stimuli for achieving the identified goals. Options for translating these goals into specific measures can be conceived along the lines of the main determinants of innovation ranging from push factors in the area of science (e g.

therti process‘Wien denkt Zukunft'identified five key fields for action on which the City of Vienna will concentrate its future RTI policy (see Figure 2):(1) Human resources

Bright Minds for Vienna: The goal of activities in this field is to make better use of the city's enormous human resource potential.

The three terms form a catchphrase to express the serious interest in strengthening the critical public dialogue about RTI, both within Vienna and on the international stage.

By means of a new set of measures called‘Vienna research in dialogue'a critical and continuous exchange of knowledge about RTI with the citizenry is to be fostered.

4) Vienna as a hothouse for research and innovation facilitating new developments: Further improvement of working conditions for scientists and creative individuals is called for by providing local networks as breeding grounds for invention and creativity.

5) A European location for research and innovation Vienna as a hub for international networks:

Vienna is to be established as the centre of international research networks, and of networks in the CENTROPE region in particular.

In this context, Vienna's network-based location of research and innovation will be strengthened further. 4. 4. Implementation the schedule for 2008 and beyond Based on the objectives,

Under the slogan‘Vienna research in dialogue',the City will address essential contemporary and future issues in the field of science, research and technology.

3) In revising the City of Vienna business promotion principles‘ZIT 08plus'more attention will be given to crosscutting issues of RTI policies,

In fact, in response to the economic crisis in early 2009, the City of Vienna decided to spend an additional¤60 million on research infrastructures and cutting-edge research as part of a broader economic and employment stimulus package.

and networked policymakkin approach in the City of Vienna. The departmental division of labour is quite strict,

In the Viennese case, the range of‘relevant actors'is limited rather and generally well known. Identifying‘new'actors is less the key point than integrating the known actors (e g. from neighbouring policy areas) into the debates about research and innovation.

and events (see City of Vienna 2007b), the Vienna strategy in the end restricted itself mainly to the short-and medium term

and explicitly left some of the more controversial long-term issues out (e g. issues of political governance).

A second reason must be seen in the early involvement of key actors in researchaan innovation-related organisations of the City of Vienna.

This concerns, for instance, the future role of the City of Vienna in the wider CENTRROP region.

and thus to the consideration of alternative futures had been addressed in the forward-looking part Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:10 03 december 2014 Trade-offs between policy impacts of future-oriented analysis 967 of the preceding research programme on the Viennese innovation system,

and strategy process had a quite significant impact on guiding the future research and innovation policy in Vienna, but the closeness to policy making implied that some of the exploratory and‘out-of-the-box'thinking that would usually be part of a foresight process was regarded not desirable

in cooperation with the City of Vienna. Klaus Kubeczko is Senior researcher at Austrian Institute of technology (AIT) in the Department of Foresight & Policy development.

City of Vienna. 2007a. Wiener Strategie für Forschung, Technologie und Innovation. Executive version, City of Vienna, November 2007.

City of Vienna. 2007b. Wiener Strategie für Forschung, Technologie und Innovation. Long version, City of Vienna, November 2007.

Dosi, G. 1988. The nature of the innovative process. In Technical change and economic theory, ed. G. Dosi, C. Freeman, R. R. Nelson, G. Silverberg and L. Soete, 221 38.

London: Pinter. EC. 2001. European governance: a White paper. Brussels: European commission. Edquist, C. ed. 1997. Systems of innovations:

Vienna: ARC Systems Research. Smith, K. 2000. Innovation as a systemic phenomenon: rethinking the role of policy.

Vienna: ARGE Innovationsorientierte Nachhaltige Regionalentwicklung. Additional Internet sources: More Information (in German) on the foresight and strategy process is available at:

Since then, six countries Austria, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary and Luxembourg have chosen to ban Monsanto MON 810 modified maize contradicting EU Commission position.

''The FISTERA methodology inspired several national foresight projects, notably in Austria and Hungary. A review of FISTERA by NISTEP underlined the relevance of FISTERA's approach to formulate national science and technology policies also in Japan 24.

R. Johnston, C. Cagnin/Futures 43 (2011) 313 316 315 Ricardo Seidl da Fonseca UNIDO, Austria.

, Vienna, Austria c Impetu Solutions, Palacio de Miraflores, Carrera de San Jerónimo, 15-2, 28014, Madrid, Spain Published online:

AIT Austrian Institute of technology, Department of Foresight & Policy development, Donau-City-Straße 1, 1220 Vienna, Austria Totti Könnölä Impetu Solutions, Palacio de Miraflores

OPEC Secretariat (2010),‘OPEC long-term strategy'',OPEC, Vienna. PAGE 52 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2006),‘Next generation networks:

Even in some small countries in Europe like Austria foresight results have been used for the implementation of policy measures (Aichholzer, 2001.

In Delphi Austria, an analysis of the Japanese, German, French, British Delphi studies was conducted to separate

In addition, after the Delphi Austria foresight process, the results of the Austria Technology Delphi were reclassified also according to the standard classifications of industry

In the foresight experience of small countries such as the foresight activity conducted in Austria named‘‘Delphi Austria,

and niches within technology trends where Austria might find opportunities to achieve leadership within the next 15 years (Aichholzer, 2001).

which can be accessed at http://nodexl. codeplex. com/References Aichholzer, G. 2001),‘Delphi Austria: an example of tailoring foresight to the needs of a small country'',available at:

Austria Delphi Austria'',FZK-ITAS Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe Gmbh in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, Institut fu r Technikfolgenabscha tzung und Systemanalyse, available at:

an interpretation of the technology Delphi with regard to the old structure/high-performance paradox'',Institute of technology Assessment, Vienna, available at:

The example of nanotechnology Petra Schaper-Rinkel AIT Austrian Institute of technology, Donau-City-Straße 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria a r t i c l e

Dr. Petra Schaper-Rinkel, political scientist, is a senior scientist and scientific project manager at the AIT Austrian Institute of technology in Vienna.

It was carried out between 2009 and 2012 by the Austrian Institute of technology AIT (Austria), Fraunhofer ISI (Germany), Z punkt (Germany) and Solutioning Design Scenarios SDS (Belgium.

Philine Warnke is a researcher in the Foresight & Policy development Department of the Austrian Institute of technology (AIT) in Vienna.

Vienna, Austria E-mail address: philine. warnke@ait. ac. at Available online 21 january 2014 Editorial/Futures 59 (2014) 1 4 4

In contrast, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, The netherlands, Belgium, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Japan are mentioned as examples of CME.

Kickoff Conference of the European foresight Platform EFP, 14/15 June, Vienna, 2010, Available: http://www. foresight-platform. eu/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Key-messages-EFP-Conference-FINAL3-100623. pdf (accessed 20.12.11)( Online.

Presentation at Vienna University of Technology, 27,september 2010. 13 J. Buur, B. Matthews, Participatory Innovation a research agenda, in:

Matthias Weber is at the Austrian Institute of technology, Departtmen Foresight and Policy development, Donau-City-Strasse 1, A-1220 Vienna, Austria;

Matthias Weber is the head of the Technology policy Unit at the Austrian Institute of technology in Vienna.

Pointner and Rammer, 2005 (for Austria; Görg and Strobl, 2007 (for Ireland. 1 A major advantage of the matching methods rather than the regression approach is that the matching is nonparametric.

Seven of them reffe to European countries (Austria, Germany, Ireland, Spain and Switzerland), six of them apply matching approaches

Moreover, the study for Ireland combines selection correction approach and matching method, that for Austria uses both approaaches Finally, three of the non-European studies (USA, Japan and Israel) use versions

+Pointner and Rammer (2005), Austria Programme of promoting use of CIMT (Flexcim Programme, 1991 1996) 301 (a) Selection correction:

Vienna: European commission. Arvanitis, S, H Hollenstein and S Lenz 2002. The effectiveness of government promotion of advanced manufacturing technologiie (AMT:

Vienna: Leykam. Polt, W c Rammer, H Gassler, A Scibany and D Schartinger 2001. Benchmarking industry science relations:

The Impact of Economic Ideas on RTD Policies, 4s/EASST Conference 2000, held 27 30 september 2000, Vienna.

Torgersen, H. and Bogner, A. 2005)‘ Austria's agribiotecchnolog regulation: Political consensus despite divergeen concepts of precaution',Science and Public policy, 32: 277 84.

-Straße 1, 1220 Vienna, Austria 2malta Council for Science and Technology, Villa Bighi, Bighi, Kalkara KKR 1320, Malta 3impetu Solutions, Vi'ctor

ETEPS, EPTA Network, Eurasian Virtual Centre, Network TA in Germany, Austria and Switzerland are among the more conventional networks.

Vienna: UNIDO. Miles, I.,Cassingena Harper, J.,Georghiou, L.,Keenan, M. and Popper, R. 2008)‘ The many faces of foresight'.

experiences from the innovation policy foresight and strategy process of the City of Vienna',Technology analysis and Strategic management, 21: 953 69.

Sector 30a, Vashi, New Mumbai 400 705, India 6austrian Institute of technology, Donau-City-Straße 1, 1220 Vienna, Austria 7advisory Council for Science

Georghiou, L. 2007)‘ Future of foresighting for economic development',UNIDO, Vienna.<<http://www. unido. org/foresight/rwp/dokums pres/tf plenary georghiou 201. pdf>accessed 8 september 2011.