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the CEE region has probably been focussed the most upon the‘‘critical technologies''style of foresight with prominent examples including successive Russian exercises 21,22

the case of Russia, in: Bulgarian Integration into European NATO, NATO Security through Science Series:

Human and Societal Dynamics, IOS Press, 2006, pp. 92 109.22 A. Sokolov, Russian Critical technologies 2015, European foresight monitoring Network Brief, 79.

and moon Rights to robots Energy 9 Russia turns off gas oil for political purposes Solar energy price descants Shift to hydrogen energy Wrong prediction of oil prices by IEA Ecology

The systemic orientation was visible in the‘Russian doll'style of layered project structuure the project operated simultaneously on the layer of separate ICT applications, on the layer of ICT adoption in four fields (the experience

S&t&i priorities for the Russian natural resources sector Sergey Shashnov and Anna Sokolova Abstract Purpose This paper aims to analyse three individual foresight projects referring to the natural resources sector in Russia, their interconnection

Originality/value For the first time the paper presents an analysis of Russian foresight projects connected to the natural resources area and an evaluation of their influence on policy decision making.

Keywords Priority-setting, Russia, Natural resources, Long term planning, Foresight project planning, Innovation, Technology led strategy, Sciences Paper type Research paper 1. Introduction In recent years

National research University Higher School of economics, Moscow, Russia. This study was implemented in the framework of the Programme of Fundamental Studies of the Higher School of economics in 2011. been active in the development of long-term strategies for the rational use of natural resources and in the sphere of environmental protection.

Russia possesses significant reserves of minerals. Over a third of the world's natural gas, coal and iron ore reserves are located in the Russian Federation,

along with about one tenth of the world's oil, and many other mineral resources. Russian fresh water reserves amount to 20 per cent of the total global stock;

Russia also has significant forest resources. However, the Russian economy still remains resource-oriented. Mining of natural resources generates more than 20 per cent of the total output,

while the mineral resources sector's share of total Russian exports is as high as 80 per cent (Russian Federation, 2009).

All Russian hydropower plants together generate just 20 per cent of the electricity produced in the country (Russian Energy Strategy:

2030,2009. The natural resources sector includes numerous players (federal and regional government agencies, public and private companies and industrial enterprises, R&d centres, environment protection organisations,

and the general public). Their relations with each other are affected often by their opposing interests, which given the weak legal system engenders many problems.

Russian companies that are active in the natural resources sector routinely display high emissions figures several times higher than in other countries.

Accordingly, a difficult environmental situation has been developing in Russia over the decades, which negatively affects the quality of life, health and life expectancy.

Currently about 40 million Russians live in unfavourable environmental conditions and one million reside in regions where the level of pollution is dangerous for health.

of which include the low level of innovation activities of Russian companies, an underdeveloped innovation infrastructure, inefficient legislation, etc.

Within the implementation of this foresight study it was realised that S&t priorities should be complemented by innovative priorities for corresponding development of the Russian management system in the field of natural resources,

the identification of innovative priorities for the development of the Russian management system. So, in Russia, three foresight projects related to the topic of natural resources were conducted.

They were interconnected and the results of the earlier projects were used in the subsequent studies to accomplish the overall objective,

i e. to prepare recommendations for shaping Russian national S&t and innovation policy in the sphere of natural resources and environmental protection.

which would contribute to increasing the growth rate of the economy, environmental safety and the competitiveness of Russian companies,

and interviews were conducted with heads of project teams. 3. Russian FS approaches 3. 1 National S&t Foresight:

2025 (FS1) The aim of this foresight study was the identification of the most important and well-developed S&tareas in Russia in the long-term perspective.

B identification of R&d areas that are most important and promising to Russia; B estimation of possible timeframes for major S&t breakthroughs;

B evaluation of the position of Russian R&d centres in the international S&t landscape; and B determination of the most relevant steps to be taken to support the development and commercialisation of science and technology.

B improvement of the structure and increasing competitiveness of the Russian economy; and B contribution to Russia's national security, including environmental security.

The final conclusions made in the course of the study were used to develop and implement the federal goal-oriented programme‘‘S&t priorities for Development of the Russian S&t Sector in 2007-2012''.

''This programme was structured in accordance with the identified S&t priorities, and specific projects were selected on the basis of their relevance to the identified critical technologies.

More than 2, 000 experts from 40 Russian regions took part in the Delphi survey, representing all leading R&d and industrial centres.

B importance to Russia; B expected timeframe for developing technological solutions; B current level of Russian R&d;

B world leader country; B support measures for Russian R&d; B expected timeframes for commercialisation and implementation;

B support measures for commercialisation; and B possible results. As the result of this foresight exercise a large database of promising S&tareas was created, with integrated scores for all selected criteria.

Russian experts considered the most important topics in this area to be accelerated‘‘Technologies for and efficient recovery of damaged lands, landscapes and biodiversity,

''‘Technologies for environmentally safe processing and recycling of consumer and industrial waste''and‘‘Geoinformation database of forest fires in Russia, allowing monitoring of fire situations in real time''.

and wastes 3 Geoinformation database of forest fires in Russia, allowing monitoring of fire situations in real time (number of fires

and forecasting the future state of the environment, based on Russian meteorological and natural resources satellites (2015-2020);

and appropriate innovative product groups with the potential to significantly increase the competitiveness of Russian natural resources companies.

technological roadmaps for several high-technology market segments where Russia has the possibility to improve its positions were developed,

At the same time, the FS2 results showed that the Russian management system in the natural resources area could be more effective

Probably the only way to bridge this gap is to identify new innovation priorities for the Russian management system;

the identification of such priorities was the objective of FS3. 3. 3 Innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector (FS3) Innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector for the period until 2025

‘‘Innovation priorities''in the above study were considered to be major activities in the Russian natural resources sector's management system that would contribute to achieving the RF S&t priorities and solving the main problems in the area.

The innovation priorities until 2025 for the development of the Russian natural resources sector was developed on the basis of identification of the most important problems and challenges regarding the natural resources sector's management system and necessary conditions for S&t development.

two main criteria were used for the identification of innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector, i e.:

''For this task implementation it was suggested to that amendments were made to the Ecological Doctrine of the Russian Federation

(i e. to key factors of environmental degradation in Russia, the main principles of state ecological policy, the list of strategic approaches of natural environment restoration,

as well as corresponding amendments to the Civil Code of the Russian Federation, the Land Code of the Russian Federation and the federal law‘‘About Environmental Protection''.

priorities for the Russian natural resources sector. FS3 was interrelated not with FS1 and FS2 structurally, but the results of FS2 showed (on the basis of the expert survey) that the Russian management system in the natural resources area needed to be much more effective

and that this was preventing S&t development. FS3 was initiated on the basis of these results and commissioned by the RF Ministry of Natural resources and Ecology (because the focus of FS3 is in the the sphere of responsibility of this Ministry).

B key areas to strengthen positions of Russian producers in global markets on the basis of technological advantages;

B estimates of the level of Russian R&d vis-a vis the world leaders for major S&t areas;

The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends, whereas the technology roadmaps for perspective product groups created a background for particular measures aimed at development S&t.

Russia also needs to implement relevant institutional changes, and Table III The interrelation of the projects Research focus Main results Questions for further investigation FS1 The evaluation of topics by the following criteria:

importance, current level of Russian R&d, support measures and others A large database of promising S&tareas, estimated by nine criteria by 2, 000 experts.

of markets and segments where Russia can improve its position Detailed description of chosen groups The most important innovation projects The most important research projects In particular,

the results showed that the Russian management system in the natural resources area is not now really effective

and this is preventing S&t development Innovation priorities for the Russian management system in the natural resources area, which should create conditions for S&t development

and promote solving the key problems identified in the FS2 framework FS3 An identification of innovation priorities for the Russian management system in natural resources until 2030 The innovation priorities

In the framework of this study proposals to amend the relevant RF Ministry of Natural resources strategic documents (for example, Ecological Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Civil Code of the Russian Federation, Land Code of the Russian Federation

Also the RF Geologic Strategy and Water Strategy were developed on the basis of the innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector.

The innovation and S&t priorities for the Russian natural resources sector were identified in the framework of three connected foresight projects.

because we could not assess to what extent the project materials were in the development of these documents Indirect FS2 The project-based recommendations for Russian S&t policy were used to adjust decision-making to future trends,

Ecological Doctrine of the Russian Federation, Civil Code of the Russian Federation, Land Code of the Russian Federation, federal law‘‘About Environmental Protection,

Also the RF Geologic Strategy and Water Strategy were developed on the basis of the innovation priorities for the Russian natural resources sector Direct (high) VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 51

assessed the current level of Russia's S&t development, and the country's international S&t co-operation potential through the development of a national innovation system.

the most promising markets (and their segments) for Russian natural resources companies. Assessment of personnel, financial and technological requirements,

On the basis of this project recommendations for Russian S&t policy which include the most important research

and corresponding tasks for improving the management system the Russian natural resources sector, which would contribute to its innovation-based development

Russian Energy Strategy: 2030 (2009), Russian Energy Strategy: 2030, Russian Federation, Moscow. Russian Federation (2009), On the Current State and Utilisation of Mineral resources of the Russian Federation in 2009, State Report, Russian Federation, Moscow.

Sokolov, A. 2008a),‘Science and technology foresight in Russia: results of a national Delphi'',3rd International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis (FTA), 16-17 october, Seville, Book of Abstracts.

Sokolov, A. 2008b),‘Russian critical technologies 2015'',Collection of EFMN Briefs, Part 1, Directorate-General for Research Co-operation, European commission, Brussels. Sokolov, A. 2009),‘The future

of science and technology: the Delphi study results'',Foresight, Vol. 10 No. 3 (in Russian. United nations Industrial Development Organization (2007), Technology foresight Summit Workbook, United nations Industrial Development Organization, Budapest.

University of Joensuu (2010),‘Foresight for the development of forest sector in Finland till 2020'',Future Forum on Forests of Finland.

Future challenges to the Finnish Forest Sector, University of Joensuu and Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Finland, available at:

www. metsafoorumi. fi Further reading Georghiou, L.,Cassingena Harper, J.,Keenan, M.,Miles, I. and Popper, R. 2008), The Handbook of Technology foresight:

Hungary d Manchester Institute of Innovation research, University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9pl, UK e National research University, Higher School of economics, Moscow, Russia

e Institute for Statistical Studies and Economics of Knowledge, Higher School of economics, Moscow, Russia a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t

in Russia. He authored over 120 publications in Russia and internationally devoted to Foresight and S&t and innovation policies;

managed several national S&t foresight exercises in Russia, participated in dozens of international projects. Alexander Sokolov is a member of a number of high-level expert groups at the OECD and other international organisations. 397 K. Haegeman et al./

Technology life cycle analysis method based on patent documents Lidan Gao a b,, Alan L. Porter c, Jing Wang d, Shu Fang a, Xian Zhang a, Tingting Ma e, Wenping Wang e, Lu Huang e

and Russia were used to gather additional information for worldwide studies in the field of nanostructure science and technologies 37.

and Russia to gather additional information on activities in those countries 5. In Germany, the report on the first forecast activities also documented international activities,

one fromthe USA and two from Russia answered the survey. The vision based survey was received very positively by the responding experts.

Innovation Leadership Forum, UK (Russia) Three seminars in the framework of international conferences with researchers and company representatives in Nürnberg, London and Exeter) 4. City-driven systemic

Moscow 101000, Russia 1. Introduction Over the last decade, scholars, policy makers and practitioners from various fields have witnessed

'This indicates that China is not moving towards a substitution of centralized reseaarc governance with a fully fledged pluralist system without strong coordinating mechanisms a`la Russia after the Soviet period (Graham and Dezhina 2008.

I. 2008) Science in the New Russia. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press. Greenhalgh, S. 2008) Just One Child, Science and Policy.

The need to transform current systems is heightened by emerging global trends, in particular democratic crises in many societies worldwide, the growing political and economic power of Brazil, Russia, India and China,

The fourth driver is the rising living standards in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China.

Gnamus, A. 2009) Comparative Report on S&t Cooperation of the ERA Countries with Brazil, India and Russia, JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, EUR 25022 EN.<