The increase in population from the Palaeolithic period to the present provides an example. 2 The UK Department for Environment,
Gradually increased concerns for the environment in terms of sustainability, human and animal health, and global warming;
and directly impacting one's influence environment. Thus, drivers of change are those factors, forces or events developments
in order to increase the ability of social groups to adapt to surprises arising in turbulent business or social environments.
rapid progress of ICT and biotech End of Moore's Law 100 years life expectancy Environment:
and similar innovations create powerful forces that change the business and social environments and personal information practices;
There are some tools for utilizing weak signals in organizational environments. One tool is called Strategy Signals, which aims to collect weak signals inside of an organization.
Strong emphasis again on ecology-environment and economy with Society and Culture and S&t close behind;
Clear belief that health-medicine, climate and the environment will be central to our futures and offer possibilities for improvements, sometimes through dramatic changes;
and social environments revise to accommodate Wiki Facebook, , You Tube, etc. Energy 13 Energy availability increases plentiful oil and other alternatives Rapid advances in concentrated solar energy Technical breakthrough in electric energy storage Sudden stop
and impact People might be eating plastics due to photo-degraded plastics in environments (e g. eaten by fish) Different ethical vision science built Stronger impact of artists Increase of genetic and hereditary
possibly affecting the natural environment and the socioeconomic fabric of a given territory. In addition, the study confirms that foresight offers interesting opportunities for urban planners,
and even the weather (the system environment): The implication is that foresight techniques must be able to embrace emergence
self-organizing elements capable of responding to others and to their environment. The entire system can be seen as a network of relationships and interactions,
even in a single element, produces reactions and changes in associated elements and the environment.
The lesson is often that the environment/time/space/area in which one works and lives in determines how one thinks (the mental model or frame),
the current (and historic) general policy making environment is likely to be the one in which implications for the application of complexity-based foresight in policy making will take place, at least for a while.
whereby a policy is more able to work as its environment changes while many of the policy interventions will fail
and undertaking cost-benefit analysis. 2. Create an enabling environment for variation by facilitating conditions that enable societies to create alternative approaches to achieve a common objective
and enable an environment for variation to occur 1. Comparative analysis of the costs of implementation
The assumptions can be understood as best guesses of the operational environment of the coming decades
Since the aim of this first questionnaire was to form a view on how the expert group envisions the operational environment in the future,
and a genuine will of most members of society to work for the environment, obedience of the law, good technological know-how, abundant resources of biofuels and the infrastructure from forest to industry already in place (as a heritage from paper and pulp industry),
Further refinement in the changes in the operational environment that affect the possibilities to reach the emission goals of 2050 would have been needed to make the foundation for attaching numerical information more solid.
the most important value Relation towards environment Nature as the most important asset. Preemptive nature conservation Nature as a source of admiration and recreation Nature as a partner Cleaning up the mess made as much as possible Relation towards technology New technology as a lever
and improve the state of the environment VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 311 numbers can also easily be considered as neutral
Her expertise is concerned with futures research, sustainable development, technology foresight, energy and environment, and the future of communities.
His main research interests are in environment, energy and security issues. VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 315 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
therefore to shield wires from the environment. Semiconducting materials conduct less well than metals, but better than insulators.
the environment, or society's well-being 30.3.2.2. Technological field None of the expected possible applications have come to a successful commercialisation yet.
there is an open discussion on the possible toxic effects of nanoparticles (incl. nanotubes) on the environment and inside the human body.
Findings Major findings are obtained on the feasibility of a systematic approach that provides anticipatory intelligence about future disruptive events that may affect the natural environment and the socioeconomic fabric of a given territory.
Since the Brundtland Commission defined sustainable development as‘‘the ability to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs''(World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987),
The study area reflects a fragile environment whose ecosystem could be disturbed irreversibly by the increasing impact of human pressure.
Environment Selective collection of solid waste%39 High 68 Low 37 Middle 51 Simple mathematical algorithm Modal split Public transport/total trips(%annual) 31
Increase of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) or other measures of aggregate income, typically reported as the annual rate of change in real GDP Environment Selective collection of solid waste.
The protection of the natural environment will be confined virtually to areas declared as having natural importance,
Figure 8 Spatial implications of Scenario A (2025) VOL. 14 NO. 4 2012 jforesight jpage 329 B Build a new economic model that is environment-friendly
B Channel the growing demand for mobility by people and goods through the construction of new environment-friendly transport infrastructure.
A dynamic and sometimes turbulent environment puts enormous pressure on rational planning systems, which in many cases have been designed to simulate highly stable and predictable functional systems.
and practice'',Environment, Vol. 47 No. 3, pp. 8-21. Meadows, D. 1998), Indicators and Information systems for Sustainable development, The Sustainability Institute, Balaton Group, Montpelier, VT.
United nations (1992),‘Agenda 21 Report'',United nations Conference on Environment and Development, 3-14 june, Ri'o de Janeiro. van der Heijden, K. 1996), Scenarios:
World Commission on Environment and Development (1987), Our Common Future, Oxford university Press, Oxford. World Summit for Social development (1995), Declaration and Programme of Action, World Summit for Social development, Copenhagen.
scenario planning can be associated with modelling analysis to allow legislators to test different legal options and regulatory solutions within simulated environments.
and tested in safe and experimental environments. Modelling is, in this sense, a powerful instrument and an important source of information that should be used to improve legislative making processes.
the people and the environment that their laws address and apply to. Important advantages derived from applying FTA to Law can also be found in the field of law enforcement,
but not yet deployed Ambient Intelligence (Ami) environment. See Wright et al. 2008). ) 12. The FIDIS project (Future of Identity in the Information society) aimed to shape the requirements for the future management of identity in the European Information society (EIS)
and technology (including biotechnology, neuroscience, artificial intelligence, genetics and genomics, digital environments, ambient intelligence), data protection and privacy law, intellectual property, philosophy of law and legal theory.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1112 1121 1116 The term droadmapt is used widely, starting from graphical representations of technology development paths and their application environments up to detailed and ambitious
3 Other examples are immersive decision theatres (offering a virtual environment facility to visualise output of predictive and scenario-based models with the aim to support decision-making (Edsall and Larson
He saw innovation policies as horizontal policies that cover the whole innovation system by shaping a favourable innovation environment.
'which regards the identity of the components of the business (micro) environment. Vecchiato distinguishes between‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change
Decision-making in a virtual environment: Effectiveness of a semi-immersive Decision Theater in understanding and assessing human environment interactions. http://www. cartogis. org/docs/proceedings/2006/edsall larson. pdf (accessed 6 august 2012).
Hames, R. 2011a. Grand societal challenges beyond civilization metamorphosis as intentional evolution, keynote speech. Fourth international Seville conference on future-oriented technology analysis, May 12 13, Seville.
The environment is rarely a static result of sedimentation, and sometimes mountains feel like anthills under construction.
Nishida 2012) have emphasissed the environment subject distinction fails to account for the mutual co-determination
and co-evolution of living beings and their environments. Yet, the movement towards future occurs in a context that can often be taken to be static in relation to the time scale of present action.
Real organisations live in environments where the environment and the focal firm co-evolve and mutually define each other
and a somewhat positivistic view that the environment provides the invariants and qualities that provide the basic building blocks of perception.
Technological discontinuities and organizational environments. Administrative Science Quarterly 31, no. 3: 439 65. van Asselt, M. B. A,
and requires more interaction with the environment. In detail the axiomatic perspective represents the theorem proof world of research.
After all, the conscious and deliberate production of expectations in foresight occurs in an environment where promises
as variations within a selection environment may or may not survive. The market is a distinct selection environment, next to institutional (regulations), cultural or political selection environments.
New technologies need protection to survive (in a company or a governmental programme), as they evolve by trial and error;
'which regards the identity of the components of the businees (micro) environment. We distinguish between‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change
Thompson 1967) have emphasised long the role of the environment as a major source of uncertainty for strategic decision-makers in charge of coping with emerging opportunities and threats.
The main goal of strategic foresight is to select promptly drivers of change in the company's outside environment (environmental scanning:
how do managers design their strategic foresight approach in different environments and thus under different conditions of uncertainty?
and the ways these actions fitted its environment. We thus expand our understanding of environmental uncertainty by defining the concept of‘boundary uncertainty'
which regards the core identity of the components of the business (micro) environment. We then distinguish between‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change
and refers to the inability to understand how the components of the environment might change (e g. in the case of the automotive industry, the driver of change of ecological concern by public policy-makers in Europe:
Dill (1958) makes the distinction between‘general'and‘task'environments. The latter one is made up of elements and sectors with
According to the organisation theory, the task environment has been defined initially to include the sectors of competitors, suppliers, customers, and regulatory bodies.
The strategic management theory expands the concept of task environment by defining the broader concept of business micro environment
The general environment refers, instead, to the sectors that affect the firm indirectly; these are the political, economic, ecological, societal,
and technological (PEEST) landscapes that surrooun the business micro environment and today are referred commonly to as the business macro environment (Fahey and Randall 1998).
Strategic foresight: practices and techniques The challenge of coping with increasing uncertainty encouraged new analytical approaches to decision-making and long-range planning:
how do managers design their strategic foresight approach in different environments and thus under different conditions of uncertainty?
and automotive) where the main drivers of change stemmed from the macro environment; on the other hand, Philips and Siemens operated in fastpaace industries (consumer electronics and information and communication technology (ICT))
The boundaries between the micro and macro environments were blurred in these industries; the huge number of drivers of change in the PEEST landscapes, their strong mutual influences,
and integrating analyses of future changes in the macro environment into market and product issues. Foresight activities address major trends and forces in the political, economic, infrastructural, social,
as macro trends in the global environment are translated down into priorities for action in specific innovation fields.
which means an‘intelligent home environment'that utilises a wide range of interconnected and embedded digital devices to make the environment sensitive, adaptive,
and responsive to the presence of people. By following this vision, Philips has built its core technological competencies around displays, connectivity,
this regards the impact of drivers of change on the identity of the main activities of the value chain and the main components of the business (micro) environment, that is, rivals, suppliers, customers, substitute products,
The key drivers of change for example, rise of new rivals from emerging countries and financial crisis had relevant consequeence on the evolution of the main components of the business (micro) environment and thus on the organisation.
drivers of change in the consumer electronics business of Philips (or the broader ICT business in the case of Siemens) affected the identity of the main components of the micro environment itself and thus brought about‘boundary'uncertainty.
and enhance the traditioona identity of the main components of the business micro environment, leading to incremental developments in the value chain, products, and services.
and stem from the macro environment (PEEST landscapes which surrounds the industry. 7 The second category is‘discontinuous'drivers of change that bring about boundary uncertainty, by leading to completely new kinds of products, players,
which help managers to figure out the (new) identity of the main components of the business micro environment and the new activities (and products and services) of the value chain.
Environment as an influence on managerial autonomy. Administrative Science Quarterly 2, no. 4: 409 43.
Characteristics of organizational environments and perceived environmental uncertainty. Administraativ Science Quarterly 17, no. 3: 313 27.
Strategic planning in a turbulent environment: Evidence from the oil majors. Strategic management Journal 24, no. 6: 491 517.
Organization and environment. Boston, MA: Harvard university Press. March, J. G, . and H. A. Simon. 1958.
Three types of perceived uncertainty about the environment: State, effect, and response uncertainty. Academy of Management Review 12, no. 1: 133 43.
The proposed framework has been devised to enable a firm to become a participant that helps shaping the path to a common vision within its network being flexible enough to adapt to the changing circumstances of the environment and of its relationships.
and how a network environment can enhance the core competencies of a firm: these lead to sustainable competitive advantages.
values and mission are defined jiontly-Symbiotic network structure-Education across the net Motivation-Environment of we/they competition between individuals-Behavioural structure with no sense of ownership-Structure of individual teams (no focus on collective performance;
despite changes in the environment or to adapt their identity to fit changes. The above descriptions present a useful heuristic to complex systems and the interactions between the dimensions of sustainable development
and these change as the environment changes. In other words, an individual adapts to his/her environment to avoid disintegration.
The adaptive management framework developed (Table 4) can help corporations embed their social and environmental responsibilities in their products and services and throughout their networrks Simultaneously,
and monitoring relevant information to keep the business on track of its vision of sustainability Strategy Performance, environment, capabilities, constraints, opportunities,
and practice in RTDI (Research, Technollogy Development and Innovation), business strategy and sustainability, environment management, cleaner production and foresight.
Report of World Commission on Environment and Development our common future. Oslo: UN. BSI. 2003.
The value marketing chain concept finds a place in the health care environment. Marketing Health Services 19, no. 1: 14 19.
thus combines organisations'capacity to monitor their environment, to make future-oriented strategic conclusions on this basis,
such as a change in the environment, emerges. In the context of systemic transformation capacities, the generic process of roadmapping is coarsely the following:(
The second phase, the SWOT analysis, identified trends in the national ICT business and research environment in the four Nordic countries.
and knowledge spaces 839 The article created insights for managing systemic entities, such as organisations or companies, in systemic environments.
Her special interest lies in enhancing innovations provoked by societal concerns for the well-being of the ageing society and for cleaner environment.
Futures of the ICT environment and applications on the Nordic level. Helsinki: VTT Publications, Edita Prima Oy.
Futures of the ICT environment and applications on the Nordic level. Summary report. Publication of Nordic Innovation Centre.
and it points out influential factors in the immediate nanobiosensor environment. We seek key leverage points at
''2.‘‘World's highest level medical environment underlying a healthy society with longevity'';''3.‘‘Health information infrastructure for eliminating disparities'';
and environment gather on the left side, forming a broad and relatively loosely linked group.
half of the key areas above, are related to energy, resources, and environment. This implies that the areas that are conducive to the realization of energy-and-environment related future visions gathered much attention from experts in a variety of technological disciplines.
In the map circular dots indicate the 36 key areas above, which are graded according to the experts'expectation.
and environment on the left side can be regarded as indicating the first group of expected innovation toward resolving the challenges in the future society
as are energy and environment related areas. The area addresses the issue of constructing a new information society system where ICT underpins the basic infrastructure of society,
resources, and environment 01-D Energy-relateda 03-H Industrial bio-nanotechnology related to energy and environment 05-A Geo-diagnosis technologyb 05-B
and fisheries resources 07-C Water resources 07-D Environment, recyclable resources, recycling, LCA 07-E Hydrocarbon resources, mineral resources,
and CCS 08-C Lifestyle and environment 08-G Evaluation of and countermeasures to global warming 08-I Technology for urban waste minimization/material circulation for environmental conservation
and cross-cultural cooperative management 11-C Service management, management in the education and research field, environment business management, governmental institution management 11-D Framework for facilitation
An efficient transfer of foresight results has to be secured proactively to grasp the opportunity to consciously shape future research in a competitive and dynamic environment The context is dynamic
and explored in a safe environment, supported by neutral facilitation. Secondly, strategic dialogues have been conducted on a larger scale involving outside stakeholders, typically from academia, industry,
and allow a better positioning in view of a competitive global environment. This clear and simple structure resembles the‘‘straw man''proposal that Fisher
However, approaches and techniques used to identify priority areas for S&t&i development in various countries strongly depend on local peculiarities, socioeconomic policy objectives, the availability of natural resources, the state of the environment,
Many individual foresight exercises are devoted specifically to the rational use of natural resources and environment protection. These aspects are analysed also during the course of various foresight studies undertaken in such sectors as transport, energy, agriculture, etc.
The natural resources sector includes numerous players (federal and regional government agencies, public and private companies and industrial enterprises, R&d centres, environment protection organisations,
‘‘Techniques for assessing anthropogenic systems hazardous to environment''.''The methodology of this study included various expert and analytical techniques being engaged to prepare this S&t foresight (analytical research, bilbliometric and patent analysis, interviews with and polling of experts,
and biosphere 4 Geophysical techniques for oil and gas prospecting in complex environments; assessment of productivity of oil fields;
and forecasting the future state of the environment, based on Russian meteorological and natural resources satellites (2015-2020);
and B environment (i e. air, biodiversity and specially protected nature areas, dangerous natural phenomena, industrial waste and cumulative ecological damage,
(i e. to key factors of environmental degradation in Russia, the main principles of state ecological policy, the list of strategic approaches of natural environment restoration,
and shifts in the competitive environment for the preparation of strategic development in an organization, this paper aims to address a structured analysis method for future technology trajectories
Competitive intelligence is also important to retain a dynamic understanding of the technology trajectories of the surrounding industrial environment (Nelson, 1997.
and understand S&t-related shifts or trends in the competitive environment as a preparation for organizational planning and strategic development.
and the environment Energy Participation (Delphi second round) 202 experts 390 experts 177 experts Counts of Delphi topics related to sustainable energy 35 76 83vol.15
with the aim of anticipating future S&tchanges and shifts in the competitive environment. By providing a consistent classification framework
Powell, J. H. and Bradford, J. P. 2000),‘Targeting intelligence gathering in a dynamic competitive environment'',International Journal of Information management, Vol. 20, pp. 181-95.
and practice in RTDI (Research, Technology development and Innovation), business strategy and sustainability, environment management, cleaner production and foresight.
the case of energy and environment policies, Peter Lang, 2010. ISBN 978-90-5201-586-6 pb. 33 N. Shibata, Y. Kajikawa, Y. Takeda,
He contributed to several ex-ante and ex-post Impact assessment studies of FP programmes and activities in the fields of Environment, Bio-based economy and Socioeconomic sciences and humanities.
Technology life cycle Patent Indicator Cathode ray tube Thin film transistor liquid crystal display Nano-biosensor 1. Introduction The rapidly changing economic environment
Integrating Science and Politics for the Environment, Island Press, Washington, 1993.33 D. Collingridge, The Social control of Technology, Frances Pinter Publisher, London, UK, 1980.34 J. P. Brans
Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System User's Manual, Federal Aviation Administration, Office of Environment and Energy, WASHINGTON DC, 2009.42 P. G. Cowell, R. Gerrard, D
Interaction between the organization and the environment is seen as the main driver. This is often reflected in the outcomes envisioning a preferable future and experiments towards that future.
Based on UNEP's third Global Environment Outlook. Last accessed on 29/06/11 and available at http://www. unep. org/geo/GEO3/pdfs/four scenarios europe. pdf. 16.
Prospects and Scenarios 4, European Environment Agency (EEA), Copenhagen, Denmark, 2000.3 T. Fuller, P. De Smedt, D. Rothman, Advancing foresight methodology through networked conversation, in:
as in the case of emerging technologies, the diverse and dynamic environment enables the actors within the pluralistic system to use FTA to build up governance networks
In 2006, the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) established the Nanokommission a stakeholder commission on nanotechnologies as part of the federal government's high-tech strategy.
such as other ministries and their agencies (for instance the BMU and the Federal Environment Agency) stepped in only after the funding strategy was established already.
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection (BMELV), Federal Ministry of Defence (BMVG), Federal
such as the Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU) focus on regulation issues relevant for their domain without being involved fully in the ecosystem of nano-related Innovation policy definition
Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU), 2011, Berlin. 52 BMBF, Action Plan Nanotechnology 2015, BMBF, Bonn, 2011.53 T
Sustainable Everyday, Scenarios of Urban Life, 2003, pp. 246 255.26 F. Jégou, S. Vincent, Co-design approaches for early phases of augmented environments, in:
S. Lahlou (Ed.),Designing User Friendly Augmented Work Environments From Meeting Rooms to Digital Collaborative Spaces, Springer verlag, London, 2009.27 P. Warnke, E
In the past the demand environment for foresight on research and innovation policy favoured application to priority-setting and articulation of demand.
In the current less stable economic, political and social environment it is possible to apply such a lens to the preceding two or three decades.
This landscape has formed the demand environment for FTA ACTIVITIES and has influenced largely the practice of the field.
How then has the new environment affected FTA? Is it managing to co-evolve with
In a discussion of the use of the concept of systems thinking in foresight, Saritas distinguishes between external and internal context 6. The external context is the set of STEEPV factors (Social, Technological, Economical, Environment, Political
) The interactive aggregate of common characteristics that influence a human group's response to its environment''20.
or opportunities, be broad enough to ensure effective competition among Danish research environments in the call for proposals for strategic research funding,
but the most important methodological Box 1. Final priorities in the Research2015 catalogue 34 Energy, climate and the environment Energy systems of the future Future climate and climate adaption Competitive environment
Human health and safety in the interaction with environment factors Healthy lifestyle what creates change?
Theme Budgets in millions of DKKS 2009 2010 Energy, climate and environment Energy systems of the future 190 455 Future climate and climate adaptation 43 0 Climate
and developments in the contextual environment are connected. In addition, scenario analysis is the systematic analysis of a variety of uncertainties combined into distinctive stories about the future (see 2). In this article
each in the context of the development of a strategic environment plan (see 16, 17), that was developed for the first and second Limburg environment plan (covering a long term vision
and strategies for the entire province) respectively (see 18 and 19). In the development process of the first environment plan, qualitative scenarios were developed by an external organisation in a broad participatory process.
A project team of the Provincial organisation monitored the scenario analysis project. In the development of the second plan, quantitative scenarios were produced.
and the environment plans. N. Rijkens-Klomp P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 19 The Overschie case involves the development and use of a qualitative scenario analysis as a strategic building block for a new strategic coalition
To summarise, at both the national and local levels, the environment in which futures studies are conducted is complex,
(Limburg, One Generation Further. 4 Scenarios on Demographics, Economy and the Environment), Maastricht, 2006.18 Provincie Limburg, Provinciaal Omgevingsplan Limburg.
Liefde voor Limburg (Provincial Environment Plan Limburg. Love for Limburg), Maastricht, 2001.19 Provincie Limburg, Provinciaal Omgevingsplan Limburg (Provincial Environment Plan), Maastricht, 2006.20 Deelgemeente Overschie, Overschie verkennen,(Exploring Overschie), Deelgemeente
Overschie, Rotterdam, 2005.21 M. Oude Vrielink, J. Bron, Evaluatie Trendbureau Overijssel. Wie geen vraag heeft zoekt geen antwoord,(Evaluation of Trendbureau Overijssel.
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