BX Delft, The netherlands 1. Introduction Government organisations design policies for a future full of uncertainties. Policy-makers who focus on long-term policy issues can use foresight methods during strategic policy-making processes to arrive at a better understanding of the future and its uncertainties
Foresight Users Policy Scenarios Dutch government Local National A b s T R A c T In this paper, we discuss the opinions
and government organisations learn to anticipate by developing more robust policies, etc. 2 5. We examine
Although all thirteen ministries were involved, given the amount and diversity of (sub-)departments within each Ministry,
the interviews were not representative of the Ministry in question in all cases. However, since the aim was to explore how foresight
and strategy are related in policy processes at a national level, this was not a problem
and we deliberately decided to interview all Ministries instead of focusing on one individual Ministry. In addition, a survey was conducted among civil servants involved with foresight
The response rate was over 40%(120 surveys completed) with a large majority of the respondents (88%)working for Dutch Ministries (such as Justice and Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality.
and other organisations directly linked to the Dutch government and involved in long-term thinking and strategy processes.
'In each Department (thirteen in total), one interview was conducted to obtain a broad view of how Dutch ministries deal with foresight and organisational development.
because in both analyses, our aim was to ascertain how futures studies methods are being used in practice by governments.
However, he was involved not from within the national government in the development and implementation of foresight methods for policy formation.
because some of them believe that the government can approach the future in a predictive manner,
Ministries increasingly call in external experts, both from the public and private sector, with the aim of gathering actual information to feed the scenario analysis,
such as how to cooperate extensively with other (government and non-government) organisations and how to reposition the organisation in a fast changing society.
When we compare these motives to the foresight functions proposed by Da Costa et al. 25,
the civil servants at the different ministries. Nevertheless, there is a consensus among the same civil servants that there is a definite need to adopt a structured approach to long-term developments.
while (local and national) governments are organised often along these thematic pillars. This makes it difficult for policy-makers from different government organisations to relate the results of studies of the future to decision-making and policy development,
because they are bound to their own organisation. On several occasions, interviewees at the local level noted that,
At the national level, government commitment was emphasised also, albeit with an interesting nuance when it comes to the interaction between the Ministry and Parliament:
the‘‘support at the top is a necessary condition, though not a sufficient one, ''as one interviewee put it.
government commitment is not the only success factor. Indeed, many foresight studies were set in motion by politicians,
and, finally, there are many different local and national government organisations, each with there own mandate, nature, structure, problems and opportunities.
An exploratory study into the relationship between futures research and strategy and policy processes at Dutch ministries, Futures 41 (2009) 607 618.24 P. A. van der Duin, J. Dirven, C
. Hazeu, E. van der Linde, P. Rademaker, On the use of futures research for organizational change in Dutch government ministries, Futures 12 (2010) 23 36.25 O. Da
i) policy and governance,(ii) international Industrial r&d,(iii) knowledge society and (iv) environmental sustainability; 5. Positioning the scenario snapshots within the defined framework.
and a regulatory framework co-designed between governments, industries and societies. 3. 3. Roadmaps The final IMS2020 Joint Vision comprise a set of around eighty research topics
Community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises, Futures 36 (2004) 45 65.10 C. Cagnin, M. Keenan, R. Johnston, F. Scapolo, R
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (3)( 2011. 13 A. Salo, T. Ko nno la, M. Hjelt, Responsiveness in foresight management:
Reflexive governance For Sustainable development, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 2006, http://www. eelggarenvironment. com/Bookentry contents. lasso?
Regulatory foresight is conceived as strategic activity undertaken by governments and policy-makers responsible for regulatory regimes to shape
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2010) 279 291.4 P. Warnke, G. Heimeriks, Technology foresight as innovation policy instrument:
and was critical to support the decision making process. 3. 1. An example from the Brazilian State of Parana 3. 1. 1. Rationale The Government of the State of Parana'was selected
Overall, the implementation of government policies should take place through transparent and efficient public management. It should,
Hence, the lack of involvement of government representatives into the debate due to the bureaucracy in place, did not allow the consolidation of the conversational environment created
At the same time, FTA is considered to contribute to enhanced governance modes that improve the performance of innovation systems 41.
when stating that foresight can be seen as a governance process, whereas 43 claim that this happens through shared
and develop new configurations through a multilevel governance approach, as well as further experimentation and learning. Fig. 2 outlines the proposed‘‘renewed''system including the FTA aspects here outlined.
and to develop new configurations through a multilevel governance approach, as well as mutual experimentation and learning. However, in order to validate
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning
community actors, institutions and multilevel governance in regional foresight exercises, in: Paper Prepared for the STRATA ETAN Expert Group action on Mobilising the Regional foresight Potential for an Enlarged European union, 2002.44 C. Shelton, Quantum leaps, Butterworth-Heinemann, Boston, Massachusetts, 1997.45 C. Cagnin,
The cases are a collaboration between government agencies and a research organization and two inter-organizational networks of different size.‘
1 The author gratefully acknowledges the support of the Innovation-Oriented Research program‘Integral Product Creation and Realization (IOP IPCR)' of The netherlands Ministry of Economic Affairs, Agriculture and Innovation.
Rijkswaterstaat WINN Rijkswaterstaat (RWS, part of the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Environment) is responsible for the management and implementation of the Dutch road and water infrastructure.
from an initially government-internal planning program to an externally supported innovation program. This program also integrated external parties starting in 2007 to a new innovation program that is facilitated
Leadership WINN operated as part of a government organization. As a result it was subject to considerable political scrutiny.
7 which is subsidized by the German Ministry for Education and Research (BMBF).(2) Innovation catalysts that aim at supporting existing activities methodological.
For instance, interviewees stated that the government and therefore Rijkswaterstaat as its agency was interested in unique onetime innovations
Impacts and implications of future-oriented technology analysis for policy and decision-making Karel Haegeman, Jennifer C Harper and Ron Johnston Experiences of recent years place a premium, for governments and individuals,
a consortium of industry partners and the Interdiscipliinar Institute for Broadband Technology founded by the Flemish government.
horizon scanning has been recognised as part of forward-looking government processes in a number of industrialised countries. It helps policy-makers in addressing the diversity of future societal
and do not necessarily reflect the views of The netherlands Ministry of Education, Culture and Science neithhe those of the other partners involved in the project.
and relatioons knowledge gaps and potential hazardous or promising developments Characteristics of government horizon scanning An analysis of different horizon scanning exerciise and descriptions highlights the following characteristics:
Participation and involvement of societal and government stakeholders, not only during the collecctio of data, but also to guide the interpretation
Most of the broader governmental horizon scans were initiated by ministries of defence or their agencies (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centrre 2006;
Other examples were initiated by ministries or departments, such as the Department for Environment, Food and Rural affairs (DEFRA) in the UK (DEFRA, 2006), the Ministry of Economic Affairs of The netherlands (Ministerie van Economische Zaken, 1998), The french Department of Transport
and Maritime Affaair (Direction générale de l'Industrie, des Technologiie de l'information et des Postes, 2000) and of Industry (Ministère de l
Departmental Victor van Rij is senior advisor foresight of the Knowledge Directtorat of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science in The netherlands.
) The Government office of Science in the UK started its national horizon scanning in 2004.6 This activity covers a wide range of S&t forecasts (Delta Scan) and future developments across all policy domains (Sigma Scan.
and government were carried usually out by special units and/or councils and agencies. Most of these scans targeted a wide variety of users (policy-makers
economy and finance (including its governance; environment (ecological; and politics and public services. Although some issues could be placed in two or even three categories,
a network of Forsociiet partners was established including some externna organisations that had shown interest in the concept of government-initiated horizon scanning.
A Table 2. Subcategories Society S&t Economy and finance Environment (ecological) Politics, government, public services Social values S&t reflection Market Hydrosphere Legitimacy-democracy
Demographicsl S&t policy-governance Labour Geosphere and landscape Law and legislation Life styles families Psychology Finance tax Atmosphere Security Labour leisure Physics Outer space Health
there is a large effort to spread good practiic to other parts of government and society. In The netherlands the aim is to contribute to the future orientaatio of policies towards sustainability,
a government departmeent reflecting on its strategic direction or policy. Part of the HSC engagement with the client will be an analysis of scan data
In this way, the future-oriented approach is disseminated through the whole of the government system, as well as the scientific communnit and society.
The focus of the UK scan is on‘public policy'(not explicitly government policy, although governmeen is intended the main client).
The Danish scan focused on the policy domains of all ministries and therefore implicitly took in all the values incorporated in the policies and services for
which the government will be held 3. Identification problems and opportunities---4. Evaluation and weighing of problems and opportunities List P---List O---1. Literature study 2. Consultation of national international experts 6. Formation of clusters
It operatte under the government's chief scientific adviser. Its goals are to: inform departmental and cross-departmental decisiionmaking;
support horizon scanning carried out by others insiid government; and identify the implications of Emerging s&t and enable others to act on them.
and was used to influence decision-makers in government, research and society in a futureorieente setting. COS had the task of facilitating cross-departmental foresight
In 2007 The netherlands government decided to abandon the system of‘sector councils 'and to create new provisions within all ministries (so-called knowledge chambers).
The horizon scanning task will be maintained and has been provisionally realloccate to the newly formed Knowledge Directorate of the Ministry of Education, Culture and Science.
DASTI is an agency of the Danish Ministry of Sciennce Technology and Innovation that aims to promoot research and innovation of a high international standard for the benefit of Danish society, facilitating development in economic,
cultural and social respeects The horizon scan was mandated by the Danish parliament in 2006 to feed directly into the research agenda setting.
2006), also due to more general problems around the interaction of scientific advice, government and society (De Wit, 2005) it is clear that horizon scanning is seen as a valued but also vulnerable learning process (DEFRA,
which is acknowledged in the research 2015 document (Daniis Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation, 2008) that sets the stage for research prioritisation in Denmark for the coming four years in a clear relationnshi to the challenges facing
and its strong networking capacity in the UK government and futuure community, which is supported strongly by the so-called FAN club that the HSC established to suppoor horizon scanning activities in government and elsewhere.
Here also, the processes involve many people and institutions that are influenced certainly by the future-oriented project work
In future, the way forward may be to link the broad national scan with more in depth departmental scans from other ministries
Embeddedness In the UK the horizon scan is embedded in the strateegi function of government and closely connected to the national foresight programme.
Danish Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation 2008. RESEARCH2015 A Basis for Prioritisation of strategic Reseaarch Available from<http://en. fi. dk/publications/publications-2008/research2015-a-basis-for-prioritisation-ofstrattegicres/research2015-net. pdf
UK government, 2006, Horizon scanning and Futures Team, Sciennc Economics and Statistics DG, 2006. Looking back at looking forwards, Next steps for Horizon scanning and Futurres DEFRA 2006.
Horizon scanning in Government. Zurich: ETH Centre for Security Studies. Available from<http://www. isn. ethz. ch/isn/Digital-Library/Publications/Detail/?
Office of the Deputy Prime minister, UK 2006. All Our Futures: The challenges for local governance in 2015.
Available from<http://www. communities. gov. uk/pub/326/Allourfuturestechni calannexandappendices id1165326. pdf>,last accessed 1 Octoobe 2008.
which aim to support the formattio of policy strategies and associated governance models. Among others, he has been involved in the Europeea projects FISTERA and EPIS, both dealing with the future of the information society.
http://www. ingentaconnect. com/content/beech/spp Critical success factors for government-led foresight Jonathan Calof and Jack E Smith This paper reports on an integrated
once launched by a government, can be successful. The study was performed by a team of researchers in Canada in the period 2005 2007.
The interview results indicate that success is defined ultimately as the impact of the foresight exercise on government policy,
once launched by a government, can be successful and why. In this approoach we are not attempting to question the degree to which the prevailing political-foundational conteex is supportive,
it is insufficient as an indicator of success. Eight factors were identified as the critical keys to success in government-led foresight programs:
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 32 Nurture direct links to senior policy-makers.
which enable foresight to be launched successful once by government, we are less clear about the necessary preconditions for initiating foresight that can be positioned for success. Thus,
plus three government agencies (VTT, TEKES, and SITRA) and the Helsiink University of Technology) in Finland, Foresiigh in the UK, the Denmark National Technology Board,
He has had over 25 years of experience of federal government policy technology and innovation program development.
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 33 evaluation of future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) should be based upon an assessment of foresiigh quality in terms of the conjectures produced,
>last accessed 3 february 2010 Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 34 been a serious attempt to understand its effects in aggregate.
i e. demonstrating new ways of governance and ways to intensify the extent of public input and debate Policy and implementation aspects Policy analysis:
and practical implementation Involvement of political actors in the process Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 35 asked what they thought were the best contemporary foresight organizations,
Relationship to national government? Resourcing? Social vs. S&t focus? What, in your opinion, are some of the most successsfu assessments of recent foresight exercises?
Finnsight 2015 (encompassing a mix of Nokia plus three government agencies (VTT, TEKES and SITRA) and Helsinki University of Technologgy in Finland UK Foresight, third phase 2004 2008;
synchronization with the business agenda of the organization Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 36 Ireland, Japan, Finland and the UK;
What motivated your government's foresight effoort in the first place?(What were the specific needs? What were the challenges?
did need you to build a business case for foresiigh in your government? How was done that?
Is there a foresight support agency (or departmeent in your government? are centralized the foresight activities or decentrallized (e g. within a specific ministry or done individually in each agency with no central suppoor or supported by some central foresight body or outside research institute or both) In your opinion, has done your country anything unique that is making foresight work in your conteex
or culture? What do you think are the critical success factors? What has done your country in various foresight initiatives (national, supranational,
and implementation of technology policy Understand the best methods and use of foresight Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 37 Results:
Governments (both national and subnatiional and government agencies were the main sponsors of foresight exercises accounting for 95%of the sample.
For example many different governance structures were observed: In Ireland, Forfas1 sees itself as the national policy advisory board for enterprise, trade, science, technollog and innovation.
These are managed by the NISTEP within the Ministry of Education, Science, Technology Sports and Culture (MEXT.
and a central innovation and futures committee of the parliameen chaired by the prime minister. Another difference was in the area of participants.
In all cases these successful functions were housed within a ministry responsible for innovation. In Ireland this was the Industry Ministry
while in Thailand it is the NSTDA. In Finland, the Parliamenntar Committee on the Future is supported by a national fund for R&d (SITRA-government investtment augmented by a significant Nokia share sale in the 1990s) as well as by government S&t focused agencies such as the TEKES, VTT
,(Minisstr of Trade and Industry) and the Academy of Finland, part of the Ministry of Education.
Not only were housed they within the correct ministry, this was identified as the primary client for the foresight results.
Clear link between foresight and today's policy agenda: Using the most advanced foresight methodds matched to the specific task,
ensures an effecctiv link to current government actions. A key requirement is to develop foresight capacity amongst senior decision-makers
so that they can integrate the important tools of technology foresiigh into advice to government. The UK seems to have developed this capacity the most where the science advisor has repeatedly been able to engaag key ministries as joint sponsors and receptoor for the results.
However, all interviewees talked about the link between what they were doiin (foresight exercises) and actual policy.
the foresiigh capacity and stakeholder organizations need Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 38 to be linked with
and scenario approaches used by their host department to help the government itself establish its longer term strategies.
In all cases, the new function was bringing much needed methodologies that had previously not been exploited fully within the mainstream departments of the government.
As present (early 2010) there are some encouraging signs of a revival of interest by the Canadian government in a modest S&t foresight initiative so,
Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science and Public policy February 2010 39 Compared to most of the other nations represennte in our study,
reporting to the prime minister, would have required the senior client as well as the necessary stature to engage other cross-government senior clients,
as in the UK. With a change in government and a progressive demotion of the NSA function as the new government became more confident in its abilities,
this capacity was erased effectively, to the point in 2006 2007 where the only substantive client was the NSA and the science community,
limited direct evidence Since 2004, with two successive minority governments, the policy agenda has been clearly dominated by short-term priorities (sometimes only five years) thus rendering foresight,
evident but not strong enough to counter inside government weaknesses The various foresight initiatives all involved private sector leaders
since there are barriers for government to receive private funds other than taxes. Essentially, the culture of government often tends to discourage full partnerships and strong connections due to mutual differences in operating norms Novel methodologies:
evident but not distinctly recognized The foresight program was able to test at least five novel approaches
and train over 300 senior government staff and managers in foresight methods so that at least a portion of the policy advisory system has had some exposure/familiarity to these methods Communications strategy:
and current government procedures call for such resources to either be managed from the centre (prime minister's office) or more formally according to departmental needs.
and the change in government led to a more tightly controlled system for strategic messaging and press relations Stakeholder integration:
somewhat, but limited by government process controls For the most part, key stakeholders at the senior staff and professional levels of organizations and industrial domains affected by the foresight were able to be involved in the process,
discernible impact on government policy has been low and the program as initially formulated did not survive Critical success factors for government-led foresight Science
and Public policy February 2010 40 is done not, then the exercise is of minimal or no value.
He is now at the Government Information technology Services, National science and Technology development Agency, 17th Floor, Bangkok Thai Tower Building, 108 Rangnam Rd, Phayatthai Ratchatewi, Bangkok 10400, Thailand;
and the US for a number of years followed by administration of industrria research and of government science and technology (S&t) in Australia.
He retired from the service of the Australiia government in 1993 and has held academic posts in Canberra and Melbourne in the S&t policy area since then.
In Thailand, Ram Rangsin, a Thai medical expert, has been conducting a project on developing policy recommenddation of the EID surveillance system for the Thai government.
and has provided policy recommendations to the Thai government (Rangsin, 2009). Conclusion Bibliometric analysis and scenarios have been used to study the factors involved in initiation and spread of EID within the framework of the EID life cycle model.
This project was funded by the Asia-pacific Economic Cooperaatio (APEC) and the National science and Technology Developmmen Agency Ministry of Science and Technology, Royal Thai government.
Microsoft, Concentra and i-City) and the IBBT, founded by the Flemish Government in 2004 to stimulate innovation in the ICT domain.
In a comparison of industrialized countries only Japan and Luxembourg show a comparably low percentage of government financing for R&d (OECD
Japan Government-sponsored cooperrativ R&d projects organized by Ministry of International Trade and Industry (1983 1989) 226 Selection correction:
+for firms with less than 200 employees+for firms adopting CIMT for first time Lach (2002), Israel R&d grants from Office of Chief Scientist at Ministry of Industry and Trade (1990 1995) 325 Difference
The effectiveness of government promotion of advanced manufacturing technologiie (AMT: an economic analysis based on Swiss micro data.
Government R&d funding and Company Behavioour Measuring Behavioural Additionality. OECD: Paris. OECD 2006b. OECD Reviews of Innovation policy:
Evaluation of government-sponsored R&d consortia in Japan. In Policy Evaluation in Innovation and Technology Towards Best Practices, pp 225 253.
The effects of government industry R&d programmes on private R&d: The case of the Small Business Innovation research Programme.
and‘wickedness'of grand challenges poses a fundamental problem for existing governance structures. Historically evolved systems of national and international public administtratio demonstrably have fundamental difficulties in addressing grand challenges that is not the kind of univeers they were designed to handle.
while the effort committed to advancing FTA as an adaptive tool (assisting governments to plan for incremental change) have been useful,
and combination of existing tools and aligning them to governance systems, to address the complexity of the grand challenges.
and the issues it brings to prominence need to catalyse major innovation in organisations and governance.
These are driving governments and businesses to shift FTA ACTIVITIES from individual large-scale foresight programmes and projects,
It is increasingly evident that current governance structurres largely evolved in the 19th century are clearly proving incapable of addressing such issues with resolve or speed.
but also with the whole apparatus of government. The emergence of the communication capacities of social networking technologies is itself providing a challenge to existing systems,
One response, based on introducing higher levels of flexibility into governance systems, is via a much more systematic embedding of FTA within government.
In fact, FTA can provide safe spaces for new ideas to emerge and be experimented with. But this certainly also requires greater emphasis on an FTA
and is supervised by the Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation. Its inception was part of government efforts to promote science, technology and innovation (ST&I) develoopmen in Brazil in order to advance economic growth, competitiveness and well-being.
Its scope covers three integrated themes: strategic foresight exercises (future studies; strategic evaluation of large programs and projects;
It is considdere to be an interface organization in the ST&I environmment having responsibility for articulating the views of the government, private sector and academia,
lessons learned and conclusions are presennte in Section 6. 2. Intangibles Governance, social engagement and foresight are relatively recent subjects of study
As far as governance is concerned conflicts may occur between new democratic practices, technological expertise and scientific freedom.
C. C. Nehme et al. medium-and long-term, in organizations, government structures and their many links and relationships.
but also the concepts of governance, macro-coordination and develoopmen of vertical communication channels in the governnmen area return to the forefront.
in a knowledge-based society, democratic governance must ensure that citizens are able to make an informed choice from the options made available to them by responsible scientific and technological progress.
In this context, governance, social engagement and foresiigh can be seen from a common point of view, looking forward to visions of the future and to what must be done to transform those visions into reality,
From this brief introduction about the environment of governance social engagement and foresight, it can be seen that the discussion about intangibles should be focused more on state-of-the-practices than the state-of-the-art.
and involving government at several levels, the private sector and academic organizations. Beside the fact that the strategic foresight methodologgica approach adopted in this paper will be presented later
decision-makers mainly those from the government tend to consider themselves confident enough to start making decisions.
demands may be associated with innovation, competitiveness, long-term government planning, subsidies to S&t public policies, and the future of complex themes, such as climate change, demography, biodiversity, bioethanol, energy efficiency etc.
The diversity of communication channels and the need for effective coordination between these three different levels emphasizes the importance of setting up a well-structured governance body for the whole exercise.
It is absolutely fundamental that complex ST&I issues are translated into the language of government officers,
In the second block (see Fig. 1‘Topic selection'),the correct identification of the subject and its interacttio with other studies and government activities
A critical factor for success is that scientists understand the behavior of government officers and representatives of the private sector,
FINEP is one the main agencies under the Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation (MCTI.
but did not have full governance to deal with all those variables which could impact its present and future.
the government's multi-year budget plan; the political changes that could affect it as a government-owned company. 5. 2 Future perspectives A tool the future timeline was developed
in order to help stakeholders'thinking oriented by the main ST&I drivers. The timeline tool was chosen as an alternative to the method of scenarios,
In order to hear the opinion of government authorities and representative leaders from industry and the national system of ST&I, about the system itself, FINEP, its performmanc and future expectations,
including 30 government, industry and academy Figure 4. FINEP SMP timeline: observation dimensions and facts related to Future challenges in communicating the outcomes of foresight studies. 253 representatives.
The results of these workshops (held with the participation of representattive from government (MCTI and other ministries),
Activities under the scrutiny of a governance model: built to contribute to the development and validation of the main results of the SMP, with clear attribution of responsibilities.
The governance model was designed to explore the advanttage of top down and bottom up flows.
Government: the sense of timing is related to politicca opportunities which arise to create initiatives and projects in the course of a given government mandate.
The main challenge is to introduce long-term perception and analysis to foster strategic foresight of interest to the state more than a given government structure.
Private sector: the sense of timing is driven by increased competition in the internal and external markets,
when precompetitive technological programs reach government decision-making at high levels. Academia: representatives from universities and research institutions tend to impose barriers to accepptin strategic foresight activities.
and all governance levels are to be considered and respected. Methodological approaches are to be consistent with scientific standards to attract participation
Government representatives frequently start making decisions before interpreting the material which was obtained in the first phase of the exercise (informatiio and data gathering),
the Journal of Future Studies, 1: 5 9. Irwin, A. 2004)‘ Expertise and experience in the governance of science:
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