and policy-making 1 5. The term‘model'refers here to a representation of the most crucial aspects of a system of interest for extracting usable information 6. The term‘decision-making'is used here for the act or process of making strategies or conscious decisions
in order to identify troublesome and/or promising regions across the outcomes of interest, as well as the main causes of these troublesome and promising regions,(6) the design informed by the analysis in Step 5 of policies for turning troublesome regions into unproblematic regions,(7) the implementation of the candidate policies
in order to identify troublesome and/or promising regions across the outcomes of interest, as well as the main causes of densely concentrated troublesome and/or promising regions, etc.
The recent financial and economic woes have rekindled a wider interest in approaches for handling uncertainty.
His applied interests include climate change/energy issues, public health and health policies, financial crisis and energy systems. His current research interests are adaptive policy making and the use of optimization in policy-making.
Jan Kwakkel received a Ph d. from Delft University of Technology. His research focused on the treatment of uncertainty in long-term airport planning.
Next to this research, he also has an interest in scientometrics and tech-mining. Erik Pruyt is the Assistant professor of System Dynamics and Policy analysis at the Faculty of technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology.
Applied interests include economic-financial crises, climate change and energy system transitions, and inter/national safety and security. 418 C. Hamarat et al./
Porter et al. 1, in their agenda setting paper on FTA, explicitly mention EMA as being of potential interest to FTA.
and what is the range of plausible future dynamic developments of a phenomenon of interest?
run the model and extract the results. 3. 1. 3. Analysis of results Fig. 2 shows the dynamics for 5 different outcomes of interest.
Rather than developing a single or a small number of model-based estimates for a phenomenon of interest,
Next to this research, he also has an interest in scientometrics and techmining. Erik Pruyt is Assistant professor of System Dynamics and Policy analysis at the Faculty of technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology.
and interests in research and innovation to address the grand challenges. For instance, Hekkert et al. 40 highlight that stimulating knowledge flows (alone) is not sufficient to induce technological change and economic performance.
It generates four contrasting scenarios relevant to a particular area of interest, which may be geographic or thematic,
His field of interest is socio-technological aspects such as uncertainty ethics and sustainability, of emerging technologies mainly inside agriculture, food production, biotechnology and bioenergy.
where his interests are focused on how to handle trans-disciplinary conflicts and scientific uncertainty. Currently Kristian is Head of Section in the Department of Management Engineering (DTU Man) at the Technical University of Denmark.
In their work within the IWGN, the participating agencies and departments stated their major interests in nanotechnology,
and interests of industry and on the transfer of knowledge between industry and natural sciences. By conducting these FTA on behalf of the BMBF
This interest was not only due to the attractive presentation of the visions but also due to the focussed and clear description and the perceived novelty of at least some of the visions (Figs. 5 and 6). The expert interviews were carried out by different researchers from the project consortium.
Many participants stressed their interest not only in the visions but also in the weak signal collection available on the internet. 2 The movie is available at www. innovation-futures. org. 455 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change
interest in one or several different visions. They were subcontracted by the INFU consortium to further develop the vision of a future innovation landscape without any constraint as to the visioning approach.
It not only fostered strong interest in the project but also supported a very straightforward exchange of ideas among many participants
Her scientific interests are innovative approaches of scenario and roadmap development. As a mechanical engineer she has conducted various foresight projects on future prospects for industrial production and on research and innovation patterns on behalf of government authorities
Starting with the very first FTA conferences, participants have signalled their concern that an excessive disparity of interests, theoretical starting points,
All of this was interlaced with specific and recurrent displays of interest in and advocacy of cross-disciplinarity, open innovation,
These two dimensions are of interest in foresight because, as Hofstede notes, these two dimensions have obvious consequences for the way in
the aim was to prioritise strategic research in areas of political interest. The initiative should identify the research needs created by societal and business developments as well P. D. Andersen,
Furthermore, new and deviating ideas from actors who had conflicting interests were introduced during the process,
and workshops, provides an obvious opportunity to create a synergy effect due to the creative processes that are shaped by bringing together experiences and ideas from many different interest domains.
) Industry and interest groupings (23) Chairman of Danish universities association (1) 4: Implementation of the Research2015 catalogue in real policy Political negotiations in Parliament, starting with the Fiscal Act of 2009 Most(>75%)of the 21 themes for strategic research were receiving budgets Speakers from the parties
other issues and (political) interests start playing a role as well. Also, in the‘organizational foresight'study, the various foresight studies of the future carried out by the government departments are designed to form initial ideas and opinions about organisational change.
the national civil servants have an interest in making sure that they are well-informed about the relevant stakeholders and issues,
can provide a relevant starting point. 2. 4. A‘glocal'impact orientation Many researchers specialised in international management 20,21 have argued for‘glocalization'as the transformation of global and local interests into a new
and often evolve as a consequence of growing awareness of mutual interests, which takes time and resources.
thus flexibly accommodate diverse stakeholder interests. 6 Open and collective stages are those based on processes of collective information gathering, sense making, decision making, dissemination or implementation of results.
and (iii) interest of different IMS regions to participate into collaborative research projects per research topic.
and the vision supported wider engagement Inclusion of diverse stakeholder interests supporting the definition of the relevant vision Inclusion of diverse perspectives
Also, the responsiveness to stakeholder needs and interests in the course of the exercise was crucial to keep the participants motivated
Philips has a strong interest in this area which tries to combine the best of TV with the best of the internet (such as e g.,
'The PP2 records a lot of content matching personal interests on the digital recorder and watches it at a convenient time.
The PP3 uses streaming services such as Netflix or Hulu in order to be able to immediately consume very recent content that is of interest (e g.,
The importance of stakeholder management results from the inter-organizational setup of the EIT ICT Labs. Organizations with very different backgrounds, philosophies and cultures, interests and goals,
Thus, the management of the organization needs to gauge the interests of the partners, emphasize the benefits for each individual partner organization
The aspects concerning strategy and vision of the partner organizations are of much less interest.
a network of Forsociiet partners was established including some externna organisations that had shown interest in the concept of government-initiated horizon scanning.
but also at differences in assesssment and interests of stakeholders. Each of the stages is explained in detail in the followwin sections.
reflecting their respective interests and perspectives. The high degree of diversiit of the creative content sector represents an added difficulty in taking an EU-wide perspective,
this makes sense not just because of the alignment of interests but also becaaus remaining viable in the long term,
As present (early 2010) there are some encouraging signs of a revival of interest by the Canadian government in a modest S&t foresight initiative so,
His recent research interests incluude converging technologies to combat emerging infectiiou diseases and climate change. Ponpiboon Satangput graduated from the University of Cambridge in 2001
his interest diversified into industrial policy and S&t policy. He was the first director of Chula Unisearch, a business-oriented commerciallizatio unit of Chulalongkorn University and the direccto of the S&t development Program at Thailand Development Research institute.
A key area of interest for the project is how technoloogie can converge to contribute to the overall capabilities for more effective applications in biosecurrit and EID management in the four designated life cycle domains.
i e. the identification of mobile opportunnities started with a wide scan of mobile applicattion that are possibly of interest for a wireless city environment.
and sounded out for their interest in Table 2. Final list of 80 (future) mobile applications Finding people with same interests Note taking Reader Mobile payment Traffic jam
The criteeri for this clustering are the correlations and similariitie in interest patterns for certain subsets of applications.
The difference in the interest shown in each of these application clusters can be considered as a first exploration of their potential.
Secondly, the clusters were ranked to identify the most promising application (s)/ cluster (s). A factor analysis (using the principal component analysis technique) of the interest shown by the 312 respondents in the 80 mobile city application (s) showed that this interest can be summarized in 21 factors,
. Since each cluster represents a set of applications with strong correlations in the interest (or disinteresst shown by the 312 respondents,
Clusters and single applications were ranked on the basis of the respondennts interest level (Table 4). The overall average interest ranking for all the clusters showed that the most important innovations in these mobile applicatiion are not the most high-tech ones
) Despite the high ranking of news in the most-wanted content rankings, the mobiil news cluster only received an average interest of 3. 11/5.
The correlation of interests in the different kinds of application was used also to cluster participants.
the analysis yielded valuable insights into the appeal of certain types of application to certain user clusters, by means of profound analysis of interest,
Table 4. Ranking of application clusters and separate applications based on respondents'interest level Application (cluster) Average interest (1:
very interesting) Application (cluster) Average interest (1: not interesting at all 5: very interesting) Application (cluster) Average interest (1:
not interesting at all 5: very interesting) Very appealing Moderately appealing Not appealing Indication of parking spaces
Impact of technology policy on innovation by firms Science and Public policy February 2010 65 consensus not only among political actors but also among organizations representing business interests.
so that the visionary process includes many participants and different interests, and it combines analysis of enabling technologies,
human resources and infrastructure to handle complex thematic debates in several areas of interest, planning for small and very large events such as the last three national S&t conferences organized by the CGEE
The main challenge is to introduce long-term perception and analysis to foster strategic foresight of interest to the state more than a given government structure.
So far, scholarly interest has focused on the overall evolution and design of China's science and technology (S&t system (Ke 2004;
and interests shaping the priorities in China's R&d programs and policies. The choice of China may be motivated by its sheer importtanc in the world scientific system,
Which interests do the funding model and the mixture of allocation streams reflect?.How is the funding model related to current trends of‘coordinated decentralization'in science policy?
as well as broader consultation and mobilization of interests behind different goals. In general, China is moving in the direction of pluralist priority-setting,
and feet on the ground again but in reality we find a broad set of programs tailored to different groups and interests.
as the reforms of governance continue to stress the need for articulation of actors'interests, building new constituencies among academics, academic institutions and industry to tap into their interests,
but also with attempts to realign these interests: i e. loosening central control without abandoning it. How this balance, unstable as it is and perhaps must be,
while also bringing public concerns and interests into the debates. The collective knowledge creation enabled by the structuring role of FTA PROCESSES enables the articulation of market-shaping expectations and visions,
6 are accommodattin a strong interest from industry to address major challenges. In the same vein, three PPPS were established under the European Economic Recovery Plan to help industries that were hit severely by the economic recession (Factories of the Future, Energy efficient Buildings and Green Cars.
while also bringing public concerns and interests into debates Structuring role of FTA can be enabled within EU instruments
when defining priority areas of common interest and in setting strategic research agendas among different actors Capacity building role of FTA supports collective learning and knowledge creation Guide direction of search and selection FTA tends to lead to articulation
and the need for faster delivery of FTA results to policy and decisionmakking The rediscovery of parliamentary technology assesssmen (TA) is also a sign of renewed interest in institutionalised forms of TA (cf.
This has led to a renewed interest in the institutionaalisatio of forward-looking intelligence, to ensure that the knowledge generated meets the needs
An overview of user interests in knowledge seeking and use',Journal of Knowledge management, 2: 36 46.
Whilst such regional actions are dictated frequently by economic interests, they can have a considerable impact on the funding
This exercise reinforced the continued importance of ICSU's historical areas of interest, mainly focused around the environment,
This can be taken as a strong signal of the likely interest of the science policy community in the scenarios. 4. 2 Lessons in conducting international foresight Reflecting on the approach taken in the ICSU foresight,
and countries are more willing to subsume some of their national interests to ensure the success of global cooperative activities.
Thus, this visionary process includes many participants and different interests. This paper is structured as follows: in Section 2 we discuss the idea of systemicity and its connections to foresiigh and forward-looking policy design.
or at least diverging, interests. A first tension is the trade-off between basic and exploratory research on the one hand,
18 varying levels of interest at national level for collaborating beyond borders and the openness of current programmes to other nations.
and implementation orientation Differences in distribution of research across research performers Differences in degree of control of governments over research agendas Varying interests at national level in collaborating beyond borders Varying openness of current and past
building/sufficient volume of high quality applications from internal capacity Influential decision-makers do not see value Sharing activities/results would dilute international leadership conflicting interests between competitors
consisting of a small group with an interest in the animal diseases and their future perspectives. The limited size of the group aimed for an active
Three working groups with funding organissation were composed based on similar interests in future research topics Mapping of recent foresight exercises with support of FPU Project pays attention to research capacity
engaging researchers and industrial leaders providing a wealth of informmatio for national funding agencies on their stakeholders'interest
and asking researrcher for expressions of interest in collaborating in each issue, which allowed advanced network analysis
and starting new initiatives with European R&i communities Temporal co-ordination Consultation on research issues among stakeholders provided future-oriented information on directtio and interests of research community.
Conducting bottom-up consultations or launching a (pilot) call aimed at gathering more anticipatory intelligence are ways to provide different policy levels with rich information about the interests of the stakeholders
orienting the efforts towards understanndin diverse interests and shared visions on future developments, thus contributing to better decision-making in a cost-effective way.
But accommodating different national interests, capabilities and culture in transnational programming also calls for flexibility in the design and management of the foresight process.
novelty, tentative researcher's interest and description how the researcher would like to contribute to future projects on the issue.
plausibility (e g. trustworthiness of source), potenntia impact (structural, interests at stake), novelty (lack of policy) and precursor's weight (strength of signal to the issue..
The storyline may address conflicts or common interests as well as emotional, ethical and legal aspects. The storyliin usually gives implicit
described impact, desirabilitty factual basis, plausibility, novelty to policy-makers, interests at stake, emotional aspects and critical aspects (if the issue appeals
Respondents may be inclined to contribute their personal interests rather than results from open thinking (even with ideas which compete with their own interests.
and provided they are not against the interests of powerful lobbies. Notwithstanding, a strong future narrative is able to draw the attention of the participants and agenda setters.
i e. the interests of the client, the wider policy context which they are associated with, time and budget restrictions,
when and why, taking into account the interests, emotions and attitudes of different stakeholders as well as experts.
interests and needs of those people who are involved in the process. Given also the limitations of the scanning methods
as evidenced by the considerable interest that practitioners and policy-makers have expressed in exploring alternative and even conflicting interpretations of the future (Kuosa 2010;
An overview of user interests in knowledge seeking and use',Journal of Knowledge management, 2: 36 46.
This was because many stakeholders with different interests participated in deriving the challenges. In the end, they agreed on a broad compromise.
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