How often the nature of measurements is dissected according to the NUSAP2 system (Funtowicz and Ravetz 1990),
and systems analyyti approaches recasting the object reality, as determined from one of the above two categories,
Multi-disciplinary by definition FTA develops understanding of systems and situations in time and space through people's perceptions (a basis for opinions);
suggests methodological approaches that assist in capturing the essence of systems and their contexts; improves practices with conceptual modelling;
As the complexity of systems involving synthetic biology, genetics and artificial life, nanoarteefact and other developing themes merge,
interactive global systems remains to be seen. The interdependence of the silos of‘grand challenges'adds dimensions that were appreciated in the 1970's
whereas the more common‘fail-safe'principle is akin to the other two forms of ignorance 2. The NUSAP system examines quantitative data as follows:
A perspective on systems science and systems philosophy. Futures 6, no. 3: 219 39. Meredith, J. R.,A. Raturi, K. Amoako-Gyampah,
and implementation Reconfiguring the policy system Making the policy system more apt to address long-term challenges Symbolic function Indicating to the public that policy is based on rational Information source:
According to this belief in progress, a next version of products, systems or knowledge will be available (Braun 1995.
Normative expectations in systems innovation. Technology analysis & Strategic management 18, nos. 3 4: 299 311. Berube, D. M. 2006.
for example, Delphi, relevance trees, trend-impact analysis, cross-impact analysis, systems dynamics, and game theory (Glenn 1999; Porter et al. 2004;
Daimler has developed also a scenario-based system which focuses on the evolution, impact, and response options to drivers of change (Ruff 2006).
Such system aims at encompassing and integrating analyses of future changes in the macro environment into market and product issues.
Embedding FTA within the proposed management dynamic framework enables business networks to develop their sympoietic system capability, through interactions and inclusive dialogue,
Section 3 describes that networked sustainability goes one step beyond the value net by consideriin the global system within
including nature and different stakeholders within society in one interconnected system. Such a network has to operate as a cyclical system where value is redefined from Porter's strategies, on cost leadership and differentiation,
to Be downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA, to enable business networks 799 represented by a triple-bottom-line balance or the creation of economic, environmental and social values to and by all actors within the network.
The proposed management framework and the roles that FTA can play are introduced then comparing networks to complex sympoietic systems.
which describes the layer behind business management systems. The continuous improvement cycle found in the PDCA is the key process for driving learning and innovation in an organisation.
since it is based on a vision that characterises the universe as a nonlinear dynamic system, unpredictable,
to be pursued by all actors involved in the system. Moreover, it should link the activities that need to be performed at each stage to build an organisation's ability to know itself (how things are done in the present),
what enable the system to adapt to disruptive changes. Rather than looking for one generic business model for sustainability
Nevertheless, the learning process (a feature of foresight) embedded in the proposed framework differs from the one entrenched in other management tools (Appendix 2) as learning also occurs according to the capabilities accumulated within the systems'operation.
The link between learning and strategy around a common vision in the network enables trust to be developed across the system through participatory instruments.
such a common vision to be pursued across the system should be based upon the mutual positioning of network actors in relation to future needs (Cagnin, Amanatidou, and Keenan 2012.
and mobilisation of necessary skills and resources towards a common target, aligning therefore strategy and operations across the system.
Management system FTA roles Decide to be in business FTA supports mutual learning and shared understanding of network actors'views and feelings as well as of risks, opportunities, system capabilities and dynamic changes, all of
and new configurations Sustain the business FTA enables the network to continue to exist in the long run by enabling it to behave as a complex living system as actors interact
but this applies strictly to an organisationally closed self-regenerating system. Dynamic and complex business networks are not of this kind,
Sympoiesis (Dempster 1998) attempts to describe the boundaryless nature of system behaviour (more will be said about sympoiiesi later)
opportunities and system capabilities, together with returns to stakeholders. In these ways, FTA can lead to the development of new (or enhanced) networks or linkages (stronger interactioons with the achievement of common ground, joint visions and enhanced responsiveness among the network members.
and integrated across the net-Collaborative innovation and continuous sustainability performance improvement system, inter-group learning-Values (universal principles) embedded in every process Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
reward/punishment systems-Cooperation starts to be felt-Cooperation between interdependent teams-Informal training of sustain ability and necessary skills and practice-Teamwork,
reward systems-Dialogue and conversations lead to individual discovery/learning-Teams Share experiences-Self-managing teamwork, high-performance teams in the net-Inclusive dialogue and active participation
IT used to build systems that cross functions and allow data-sharing stimulus to support decisions-Information based;
functional silos removed (information flow)- Systemic processes/systems Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:04 03 december 2014 A framework, with embedded FTA,
environmental and social performance along the network. 4. Management framework The proposed management framework emphasises the creative aspect of living systems where FTA is key to enable the kind of dialogue
autopoietic systems produce and are a product of themselves (Rocha 2003). Interpreting complex systems from the perspective of ecosystems,
Dempster (1998) coined the expression sympoietic systems, indicating three main differences, related to key system characteristics between autopoiesis and sympoiesis:
1. autopoietic systems have defined self boundaries, while sympoietic systems do not; 2. autopoietic systems are self-produced,
whereas sympoietic systems are produced collectively; and 3. autopoietic systems are closed organisationally, while sympoietic systems are organisationally ajar.
Dempster (2000) concludes that these differences mean that autopoietic systems are oriented homeostatic, development, centrally controlled, predictable and efficient,
whereas sympoietic systems are homeorhetic, evolutionary, distributively controlled, unpredictable and adaptive. According to Dempster, one of the most important differences between autopoietic and sympoietic systeem relates to the balance between their ability to maintain their identity
despite changes in the environment or to adapt their identity to fit changes. The above descriptions present a useful heuristic to complex systems and the interactions between the dimensions of sustainable development
spatial-technological, social, economic, environmmenta or ecological, political-institutional and cultural-values. Living systems share matter, information and energy with their external environments:
there is simultaneous autonomy and interdependence. According to Rocha (2003), complex systems require interactivity: in the same way, it is not possible to understand living systems without perceiving the systemic relationshhip of cells
and there is no possibility of comprehending social systems without taking into consideration the connections that individuals establish with their worlds.
Interactive relationships create emergent possibilities, such as those that are believed to be ingrained in the management framework proposed.
The information and knowledge which are shared throughout the business networks can lead to the networks'adaptation and evolution,
but also enable all actors within such networks to progress towards higher levels of sustainable development. What one part does to another is interpreted indefinitely
the interactions among all the actors within networks characterise the existence of such a system or the network itself.
The system will then be able to make evolutionary leaps characterised by the appearance of emerging properties.
or for moving the whole system towards higher levels of sustainable development. Dialogue and information-sharing, founded on trust,
Larsen 2003) and ability to live with the paradox of chaos and order, competition and cooperation, through sympoietic system capability.
Table 4 highlights the main processes involved at each stage of the broad business management system (Appendix 4
that emphasise the creative aspect of living systems which, according to Tuomi (2011), is critical to address some of the epistemic and ontological assumptions that underlie much of the current FTA practice.
Hence, embedding FTA within the proposed management framework enables a network to develop its sympoietic system capability:
systems (IS), strategic, managerial and operational technologies analysis and selection Operations Marketing and/or commercial;
Lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on manufacturing systems. Futures. Cagnin, C. H. 2005. An information architecture to enable business sustainability.
A new scientific understanding of living systems. Newyork: Knopf Publishing Group. Chehebe, J. R. 1998. Análise do Ciclo de Vida de Produtos:
A self-organizing systems perspective on planning for sustainability. B. Sc. Thesis, University of British columbia, Vancouver, Canada.
Sympoietic and autopoietic systems: A new distinction for self-organizing systems. Proceedings of theworld Congress of the Systems sciences and ISSS 2000, Toronto, Canada.
Donaire, D. 1999. Gestão Ambeinatl na Empresa. São paulo: Atlas, 2 Ed. Eckenfelder, D. J. 1997.
(mgmt) framework Operations Management tools/Systems/Frameworks Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Proposed Management Management Management Mgmt Mgmt Mgmt Behaviours/Actions Operations
For instance, a portion of the EP portfolio dealing with microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) technology has shifted from component integration to applications.
For example, laboratory B has an area of common technical focus with laboratory A through lithography, laboratory C through fuel cells and biological systems,
and laboratory D through biological systems and semiconductors. The identification of these common points directs us to btechnology categoriesq that can be analyzed further to identify the portfolio of technology that characterizes the capabilities of each laboratory.
in the current interlinked innovation meta-system, research and technollog organisations (RTOS) would benefit from developing two systemic capacities:
For example, Smits and Kuhlmann (2004,11) argue that innovation is a systemic activity that‘involves a variety of actions within the system,
'In addition, Geels (2004,900) uses the term‘socio-technical system'to describe the systemic interaction that encompasses production, diffusion,
roadmapping comes quite close to system dynamic modelling techniques, yet roadmapping is still more of a technique for strategic focussing Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 826 T. Ahlqvist et al.
than for system simulation. However, combining roadmapping with system dynamic modelling is definitely a potential path for future methodological development.
Process-based strategy roadmapping is methodologically more flexible and exploratory than traditiiona technology roadmapping. The roadmaps are approached not as hermetic plans to achieve definite goals (e g. new products),
and different kinds of digital systems to help optimisation and customer selection. The third aspect was need the to move away from the intense price competition towards integrated service packages that would be oriented based on quality pricing schemes.
Creation of four context scenarios on the adoption of ICT in four Nordic countries Building system-level strategic
and organisations when responding to system-level changes. First activation of the systemic transformation capacities is useful
From sectoral systems of innovation to socio-technical systems: Insights about dynamics and change from sociology and institutional theory.
Classical technology forecasting methods were devised to address incrementally advancing technological systems. These methods keyed on technical system parameters, somewhat more than on socioeconnomi system aspects.
That is because they were driven initially by cold war considerations that concentrated on functional gains more than on cost
the technology delivery system(‘TDS')has demonstrated enduring value by capturing and representing (1) key enterprise (to‘deliver'an innovation) and (2) contextual factors (impinging on such delivery).
Wenk and Kuehn (1977) advance TDS as a form of socio-technical system conceptual modelling to help identify the pivotal elements involved in innovation.
and available human knowledge of the particular innovation Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 846 Y. Guo et al. system, within the context of a more general innovation context (i e. the socioeconomic context in
Stage 3 brings expertise to bear on the system depiction (Stage 1) and empirical results from Stage 2. Step F digests prior results to present those to participating experts
Key reviewarticles helped us to understand the important componeent and players in this‘delivery system'.'Engagement of our collaborating solar cell researchers helped distinguish the more important elements.
GA. He is also Professor Emeritus of Industrial & Systems Engineering, and of Public policy, at Georgia Tech, where he continues as the co-director of the Technology policy and Assessment Center.
UKINNOVATION systems for newand renewable energy technologies: Drivers, barriers and systems failures. Energy Policy 33, no. 16: 2123 38.
Downloaded by University of Bucharest at 05:05 03 december 2014 Text mining of information resources 859 Guo, Y.,L. Huang,
Interinstitutional networks in technological delivery systems. In Science and technology policy, ed. J. Haberer, 153 75.
*)or (systemic sclerosis) or (diffuse scleroderma) or (Deep space Station Controller) or (Data Storage Systems Center) or (decompressive stress strain curve or (double-sidebandsupprresse carrier) or (Flexible AC Transmission Systems
science and technology to be embedded in society as a socialized system. With the discussion above and the dramatic changes occurring inside and outside Japan as a backdrop,
The area addresses the issue of constructing a new information society system where ICT underpins the basic infrastructure of society,
storage system 06-L Energy saving 07-B Agriculture, forestry, and fisheries resources 07-C Water resources 07-D Environment, recyclable resources, recycling, LCA 07-E Hydrocarbon resources, mineral resources,
the challenge of developing a more resilient societal system was identified, with potential implications around social research on resilience,
middle classes Uncertain results for banking regulation A challenge to liberal democracy models Conflict follows geopolitical shifts Terrorism continues to pose a threat to security A multi-polar governance system Religion
where some appeared to be narrower and more specific for the national RTDI system. This suggests that not all RTDI priorities are linked specifically to grand challenges.
B Living Systems; B Medicine and Health; B Rational Use of Natural resources; B Transportation, Aviation and Space Systems;
B Power Engineering and Energy Saving; B Manufacturing Systems; and B Safety. The thematic area‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''covers the following five technology areas:
1. environmental monitoring and forecasting (atmosphere and hydrosphere; 2. estimating resources and forecasting (lithosphere and biosphere;
‘‘Techniques for assessing anthropogenic systems hazardous to environment''.''The methodology of this study included various expert and analytical techniques being engaged to prepare this S&t foresight (analytical research, bilbliometric and patent analysis, interviews with and polling of experts,
B Living Systems; B Industry of Nanosystems; B Transportation and Aerospace Systems; B Rational Use of Nature Resources;
and B Energy efficiency and Energy Saving.‘‘‘‘Rational Use of Nature Resources''was considered therefore one of the key priorities.
B combined solid minerals extraction and deep processing systems (2010-2015; Table II Characteristics of most developed technology groups in the‘‘Rational Use of Natural resources''thematic area Technology group Index of R&d levela Cumulative effectb Monitoring and control systems,
and B an atmospheric pollution monitoring system, capable of the early detection of conditions potentially leading to natural or anthropogenic environmental emergencies (2015-2020.
B improvements in the law enforcement system and law enforcement practice; B designing effective economic mechanisms for stimulating enterprises to decrease waste formation;
The IPC, established by the Strasbourg Agreement of 1971, provides for a hierarchical system of language-independent symbols for the classification of patents and utility models according to the different areas of technology to
NO 1 2013 jforesight jpage 57 intellectual property (IP) system that rewards creativity, stimulates innovation
advanced and reliable distribution network and system technology for electricity; distributed power generation systems; next-generation SCADA technology;
heat, electricity, cooling cogeneration/building use 15 (Biotechnology) 1 (Electrical machinery, apparatus, energy) Japan Artificial photosynthesis technology/solar energy conversion efficiency;
micro cogeneration systems/residential use; ceramic micro gas turbines/thermal efficiency; ocean-thermal conversion/electric power generation South korea Cogeneration fuel cell/residential use;
''‘Development of distributed power technology with large-scale use of alternative energy supply'',Development of low-cost and high-purity hydrogen mass production Technology'development of zero emission power generation system
Schmoch, U. 2008),‘Concept of a technology classification for country comparisons'',Final Report to the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Karlsruhe
Shih, M. J.,Liu, D. R. and Hsu, M. L. 2010),‘Discovering competitive intelligence by mining changes in patent trends'',Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 37
systems in which FTA is conducted; and policy governance sub-systems in which FTA is embedded (or on the contrary, with
which certain FTA APPROACHES would clash). By putting together these major building blocks, one can better devise
(i) the perceived policy needs/opportunities to be tackled by FTA,(ii) the chosen FTA APPROACH and its methods and (iii) the policy governance sub-system,
since societal challenges and complex interrelated systems require a more holistic and systemic understanding of situations.
Hamarat et al. 11 explore the application of EMA combined with a number of tools in a case that focuses on a large systemic transformation or transition of an energy generation system towards a more sustainable functioning.
in three different technical domains and related to three different grand challenges, grounded in a system perspective.
The underlying claim is that innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations of socio-technical systems.
and enabled a look into paradigm shifts rather than tackling different variants of the established system view.
complex and adaptive nature of the systems we are dealing with today are moving from one technological era to another.
In reality, predicting certain elements of a broader system such as demographic developments is not in contradiction in any way with developing multiple futures.
and qualitative methods, could be traced potentially back to the education system, where students are confronted early with choices between different options (such as the divide between social and natural sciences),
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 386 397 reasonable representation of the systems being analysed, and that the intrinsic uncertainties associated with such representation are documented at best. 5. 2. 2. Lack of trust One aspect of trust is that it derives from perceived credibility,
. H. Wai, Developing a horizon scanning system for early warning, in: 12th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, US Naval War College, Newport R i. USA, June 19 21,2007, 2007, Available at:
Institute of Studies for the Integration of Systems, Rome. He received his engineering degree at Ecole Centrale (Paris). His key qualifications are Sustainability Policy analysis and impact assessment, and foresight studies.
or system technologies 3. The first step for devising a technology strategy is to decide if the technology is worth the investment.
When a complex technical system incorporates a number of emerging technologies, use of TRLS has proven helpful in designing a viable new system.
We count the number of literature citations and the number of patent citations in DII by priority year. 2. 1. 5. IPC (four-digit) The International Patent Classification (IPC) system,
) system is developed a hierarchical classification system by Derwent. It is similar to the IPC classification system. Whereas the IPC is assigned by the examining patent offices,
NDIA Systems Engineering Conference online at, http://lincoln. gsfc. nasa. gov/trl/Nolte2003. pdf 2003.8 NASA, HRST Technology assessments.
, Study on indicator system for core patent documents evaluation, in: Proceedings of ISSI 2009-The 12th International Conference of the International Society for Scientometrics and Informetrics, Rio de janeiro, Brazil, 2009, pp. 154 164.17 C. Zhang, D. H
Market Manage. 21 (1)( 1992) 23 31.36 E. Hajime, The suitability of technology forecasting/foresight methods for decision systems and strategy:
Alan Porter is a Professor Emeritus of Industrial & Systems Engineering, and of Public policy, at Georgia Tech, where he remains Co-director of the Technology policy and Assessment Center.
Viewed on the most general level, living systems, from cells to societies exhibit common properties, with some attending intrinsic fundamental invariants.
and/or simulations of technological systems stand out. D 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Keywords: Technology evolution;
as systems increase in complexity, it becomes necessary to draw upon social experiences to provide the necessary analogies 4. This is the case in cellular and molecular biology,
The more complex and intangible the system the more useful is the resort to metaphors. That is evidently the case of the theory of evolution itself:
which follows the necessity of acknowledging the law-like aspect underlying all growth phenomena in the living (social as well) realm, mainly related to the mechanism of information transmission and increase in system's complexity.
Viewed on the most general level, living systems, from cells to societies, exhibit common properties, with some attending intrinsic fundamental invariants.
"In biological systems an innovation can be achieved without necessarily changing the genetic underpinnings of a feature,
2 How does heritability occur in technological systems? That is, how do technological units (whatever they may be) carry their information forward through time?
or human genes transmission it had evolved not continually toward more and more complex technological systems; the human massive capacity for culture (and technology) may be seen as a very strong capacity of adaptation to respond to very quick spatial and temporal variations, observed in the Earth homeland since the Pleistocene;
T. C. Devezas/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1137 1152 1147 the coevolutionary complexity of managing two inheritance systems (the vertical, genetic,
which on the whole constitutes the world system, as recently empirically and mathematically demonstrated by Devezas and Modelski 25;
the persistent opposition of mainstream economics to Darwinian concepts as applied to socioeconnomi systems, mainly caused by misinformation and non-acquaintance with the basic assumptions of Universal Darwinism;
The systems dynamics approach, widely used in technological forecasting since the 1950s, is btop-downq in character
(so called because it views the system from above, as a whole). It is applied usually to human feedback systems
and their dynamics (behavior over time) is defined via the change of their organization (or dstatet) as described by the system's differential equations.
Such top-down analyses are very suitable for describing the system's regularities and for identifying dominant feedback loops,
or in other words, for forecasting agents'aggregate behavior. The other approach forms the new sub-field of bartificial Lifeq (AL,
for short) that uses so-called dsoft computingt models of complex adaptive systems (CAS) that encompasses several methods of simulation
The most important system's property unraveled by this method is the existence of scale-free networks,
and regarding its application to technological systems see the work of Sole'et al. 31, also conducted in close collaboration with other researchers at the Santa fe Institute.
In technology and science GAS have been used as adaptive algorithms for solving practical problems and as computational models of natural evolutionary systems,
Altogether the application of these methods within the limits imposed by their own characteristics has helped researchers in unraveling some until now hidden properties of technological systems.
human technology is a part of a biologically co-evolved massive capacity for culture, managing two inheritance systems, vertical (twofold in scope, genetic and Lamarckian) and horizontal (pure Lamarckian in scope),
and more energetic among a broad innovation-driven and co-evolutionary set of processes, composing the whole of the world system.
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and policy-making 1 5. The term‘model'refers here to a representation of the most crucial aspects of a system of interest for extracting usable information 6. The term‘decision-making'is used here for the act or process of making strategies or conscious decisions
but also relate to functional relations, model hypotheses and aspects, model structures, mental and formal models, worldviews, modeling paradigms, the effects of policies on modeled systems,
which a multiplicity of alternative models could be developed for how (aspects of) systems may work,
but one is not able to rank order the alternative system models, plausible outcomes, and outcome evaluations in terms of likelihood 16.
all alternative system models, plausible scenarios, and evaluations require consideration, without exception, and none should be treated as the single best model representation, true scenario,
and many aspects related to these systems and their future developments are deeply uncertain. Current attempts at steering the transition toward a more sustainable and cleaner configuration are static
In order to realize this, it is suggested that a monitoring system and a pre-specification of responseswhen specific trigger values are reached should complement a basic policy.
In Step I, the existing conditions of an infrastructure system are analyzed and the goals for future development are specified.
beyond which actions should be implemented to ensure that the policy keeps moving the system at a proper speed in the right direction.
and other uncertainties in order to generate a large variety of scenarios that are used in turn to analyze complex uncertain systems,
it could help in developing a monitoring system and its associated actions. It thus appears that EMA could be of use in all adaptive policy-making steps.
Here, the troublesome and promising regions identified with PRIM are used directly for designing adaptive policies and the corresponding monitoring systems.
a System Dynamics 50,51 model developed for exploring the dynamics of energy system transitions 3 is used in this study.
and the transition toward a more sustainable energy generation system is a grand societal challenge. This study shows how EMA
and steering transitions toward more sustainable energy systems. Thus, this study is in line with the purpose of FTA projects that aim at developing long-term, adaptive,
That is, EMA could be used to support an inclusive modeling process from the start, where different beliefs about how a system functions,
has been illustrated through a case about the structural and systemic transformation of energy generation systems toward a more sustainable future.
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Erik Pruyt is the Assistant professor of System Dynamics and Policy analysis at the Faculty of technology, Policy and Management of Delft University of Technology.
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