One of the most powerful technological forecasting tools, the logistic equation, has its origin in the biological realm
tales from the frontier (new methods for TFA) and importing ideas (methods and tools adopted from other fields), respectively.
and tools that have grown explosively in recent years related to the biosciences, bioinformatics and evolutionary approaches. Among the needs for TFA envisioned by the TFA Methods Working group we find the questioning about the validity of the analogy between technological evolution and biological evolution (Ref. 1, pp. 299:
and obstacles to be overcome to transform evolutionary approaches in useful forecasting tools. The present paper intends to present the state-of-the-art on this debate
and will be seed the and/or the substract for the further development of useful forecasting tools in the technological realm.
more than an useful metaphor One of the most powerful technological forecasting tools, the logistic equation, has its origin in the biological realm
The mathematical tools that began to be employed in economics (as well as in technological forecasting) starting in the 1970s had been developed by mathematical biologists in the 1920s
The widespread availability of computers (and of computer literacy) has contributed undoubtedly for the rapid diffusion of the usage of such mathematical tools,
despite of some maturity as source of efficient heuristic tools to solve complex problems, are still emerging sciences.
and are considered today a relatively mature computational tool for solving complex engineering problems, for which the term Modern Heuristics 36 was coined.
and requires the further development of specific tools and methods for its operationalization 7. More specifically,
. Nair, D. Roy, J. Drexhage, Seven tools for creating adaptive policies, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change 77 (2010) 924 939.24 W. E. Walker, S. A. Rahman, J. Cave, Adaptive policies, policy analysis,
Open source Scientific Tools for Python, 2011.57 A. Ben-Tal, A. Nemirovski, Robust convex optimization, Math.
a single fast and simple model, utilizing existing tools for aspects of airport performance calculations has been developed 15.
This figure Table 3 Tools integrated in the fast and simple model for airport performance analysis. Airport performance aspect Tool Capacity FAA Airfield Capacity Model (FCM
Emissions Emission Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS) the FAA required tool for emission analysis 41. Third party risk Methodology developed by the National Air Traffic Services (NATS) for third-party risk 42,43 the NATS methodology has been extended to apply to multiple runways 49,50.
which futures thinking can be used as a tool for inspiring actions and structures that address the grand challenges.
several scholars state that scenarios constitute a major tool for considering the future in strategic planning 18 23.
we analyze several scenario exercises to better understand the role future scenarios can play as a tool for orienting innovation systems.
i e. window of opportunity, we looked at scenarios as a tool to support planning and decision-making.
In addition, several scholars state that scenarios constitute a major tool for considering the future in strategic planning 18
and using future scenarios as a tool for orienting innovation systems. Our analyses of the scenario case studies from Appendix 1 revealed elements of good practice and implications on how to better address innovation through future scenarios.
a tool of growing importance to policy analysts in government and industry, Technol. Forecast. Soc.
a tool for strategic thinking, Sloan Manag. Rev. 25 (1995) 40.53 A. Lovins, Soft Energy Paths:
tools and pitfalls, Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 65 (2000) 3 22.81 T. J. B. M. Postma, F. Liebl, How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool, Technol.
Forecast. Soc. Chang. 72 (2005) 161 173.82 J. Hauschildt, Promoters and champions in innovations: development of a research paradigm, in:
In this paper, FTA is used as the umbrella term covering subfields such as technology foresight, technology forecasting, technology roadmapping and technology assessment cf. the list in 29 and combining tools, ranging fromquantitative methods
such as bibliometrics and modeling to qualitative and participatory tools such as focus groups and scenario building cf. 30.
and the supporting infrastructure and tools to advance nanotechnology) as well as risk governance (Support responsible development of nanotechnology) 45.
the NNI uses advanced strategic planning methods and tools and acts as a kind of umbrella organization for pooling heterogeneous future-oriented activities.
unifying and transforming tools, AICHE J. 50 (2004) 890 897.10 M. Roco, Possibilities for global governance of converging technologies, J. Nanopart.
I. Miles, Methods and tools contributing to FTA: a knowledge-based perspective, Futures 43 (2011) 265 278.29 M. Rader, A l. Porter, Fitting future-oriented technology analysis methods to study types, in:
How to improve scenario analysis as strategic management tool? Technol. Forecast. Soc. Chang. 72 (2005) 161 173.22 E. Hiltunen, The future sign and its three dimensions, Futures 40 (3)( 2008) 247 260.23 F. Jégou, K
in order to constrain uncertainty to the point where traditional tools may be used. The rub would be that by concealing the full scope of a highly complex problem in both social and technological dimensions,
Almost all the articles in the Special issue take on this challenge the rationale for matching particular tools to particular tasks.
perhaps more importantly, provide the foundations for systematic design criteria the case tested theories that allow tools to be tailored to tasks.
What is clear is that such efforts are needed to at once provide more consistent and robust design principles to guide the matching of tools to tasks
the use of longer-term planning tools such as foresight in general, the selection of foresight methods, and the inclusion of experts and citizens.
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 30 online tools to engage project partners and the supporting roadmapping group4 in well-defined stages.
Much of the joint work was conducted using online tools including collaborative platforms like wikipedia, online surveys and video/teleconferences combined with structured interviews and face-to-face meetings.
This work was undertaken mainly using online tools. The timeframe 2025 was selected both to break from current mindsets
During a period of a month and a half a number of online tools were used for this process.
Tools included MS groove7 for sharing and updating files and documents, email, virtual room for videoconference and joint work, among others.
C. Cagnin, T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 35 The use of online tools was important to enable partners to collaborate across the project within dedicated spaces
Moreover, these tools offered major support for efficient and participatory management of the exercise since their use was integral part of its design.
Moreover, parallel group work with support from online tools was embedded in the process allowing the project to be kept within the planned schedule. 4. 3. Capacity to reconfigure international networks Table 2 below outlines how formal and informal
and discussions enabled through a wiki tool. As mentioned, the scenario and vision building process required considerable behaviour and expectation management.
Finally, the extensive use of online tools in this project shows how it is practical to deliver on the promise of fast and extensive engagement of stakeholders, independent of geographical location.
we conclude that online working tools offer major support for efficient and participatory management of global foresight.
when the use of such tools is an integral part of the design of the whole exercise a finding that deserves further research in order to advance the field of future studies.
Essentially, these are challenges for strategic technology intelligence and forward-looking tools. This is especially the case for implementations around Emerging s&t fields.
The paper informs on the outcomes of a project on the simulation of alignment tools to allow the creation of innovation chains in the field of micro and nanotechnology.
which different tools were used for collecting information and for projecting the personas in the future as a way to explore,
and video-chat during watching (co-experience tools), for sharing and exchanging media content through connected TV platforms, for convergence with social platforms and gaming.
and is interested Fig. 1. Examples the cultural probe tools (Day 4 and Day 6). K. De Moor et al./
using creativity as a tool to K. De Moor et al.//Futures 59 (2014) 39 49 47 stimulate users'imagination
etc. if they are supported and stimulated to do so through adequate tools and methods. Moreover the distinct user profiles were found to have different expectations
It represents an approach for bringing the future into inclusive innovation processes in a more systematic and comprehensive way, based on Foresight theory and practice and through integrating methods and tools from Foresight, traditional user/market research and human-centred
suitable tools and methods, user characteristics and other variables that co-determine the design of a concrete study,
personalized television content as a tool to cross the chasm? in: Proceedings of the 8th international interactive conference on Interactive TV & Video, ACM, Tampere, Finland,(2010), pp. 15 22.25 E. Von Hippel, The dominant role of users
Several tools have been developed that foster alignment between strategy and actions and across value or supply chains 5. However, many of these models display important weaknesses.
and provides a better optimisation of both tools and integration of results expected from the strategic diagnosis. SWOT analysis becomes robust in supporting strategy design
This offers a robust tool for systemic processes aiming to align strategy and operations across a given system (i e. value chain.
In this context, the proposed system aimed to become an important strategic tool for monitoring the effectiveness of public management. 3. 1. 2. Description The first case aimed to assess the efficiency of the Brazilian State of Parana in sharing
and the Hoshin Kanri 36 37 tools to support the acquisition, representation, modelling and maintenance of a firm's knowledge system.
through processes and tools that enable spaces for inclusive dialogue to take place 40,44 46. Embedding this form of dialogue in the proposed system would
Therefore, contributions from a variety of tools were combined in such a manner as to allow these objectives to be embedded within a system based on the BSC.
and the interconnectedness of futures research In this article the CIM is used as a tool to structure
or a real-as-life setting Projects 3. 3 Testbeds and simulation tools Integrates hardware and software platforms and simulation tools across companies in order to test applications,
and IT knowledge and to provide the suitable tools for the early steps of innovation from topic identification to execution of large-scale R&d projects.
(organizations and end-users) 3. 3 Testbeds and simulation tools & Closed network 3. 4 Spearhead research & (&) Closed network 3. 5 Business modeling & (&) Open
Horizon scanning is a rather new FTA tool, as further described below, and could become a 14th family of methods in Scapolo
and Porter's classificcation The scores on the six principles can also differ for the same tool,
as is shown in the examples in Table 2. Some authors recommend the use of speciifi combinations of tools and approaches in order to build more robust methodologies (Rader and Porteer 2008.
If combinations of tools and approaches are selected well, they can result in a higher overall FTA score.
their methodologies contribute to the convergence of a variety of forward-looking tools. Furthermore, by exploring new mixes of FTA TOOLS they contribute to the creation of FTA techniques that are more adaptive to clients'needs and to context characteristiics Last but not least, this special section also contribbute to the identification of key success factors in the application of these techniques.
The paper highlights the range of purposes this tool can serve, by challenging policy-makers to look at uncertaaintie and unexpected futures,
Methods and tools contributing to FTA. Paper presented at Third International Seville Conferennc on Future-oriented technology analysis, held 16 17 october 2008, Seville, Spain.
Dark scenarios as a constructive tool for future-oriented technology analysis: safeguaard in a world of ambient intelligence (SWAMI.
This paper discusses the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool for future-oriented technology analysis activities, such as technology foresight and scenario building.
3 and discusses amongst other topics the usefulness of horizon scanning as an additional tool to set the agenda for more specifically focused foresiigh activities and other future-oriented technology analysis (FTA TOOLS.
Finally, we are persuaded that horizon scanning gives us a tool to create a common understanding and shared awareness of a wide variety of future problems, threats and opportunities (PTOS),
An important tool of these sector counciil was participative foresight that developed over time and was used to influence decision-makers in government, research and society in a futureorieente setting.
Overall we conclude that horizon scanning as perforrme in the three cooperating countries is a powerffu tool
and Public policy February 2010 16 weak signals and wild cards that may be used to assees the robustness of results that may come from other forward-looking tools as planning, scenarios and quantitative modelling.
Therefore, horizon scanniin is highly complementary to these tools. The fact that the horizon scans considered here were developed for different purposes illustrates their versatility as a policy
-and research-informing tool. To complement their increasingly acknowleddge role in persuading policy and research teams to think more broadly openly and strategically,
but to clearly distinguish the different ways in which horizzo scanning in relation to other tools might be used in different contexts,
Joint horizon scanning could be used as a tool: to clarify the picture of the most relevant relationnship in a shared process (with the involvement of decision-makers) on a much earlier moment than usual
Report on futures tool, horizon scanning. Availabbl at<http://www. cs. um. edu. mt/gpac1/Teaching/Foresight/Papers/Horizonscanning. doc>,last accessed 1 october 2008.
The novelty of the methodology lies in the mix of tools used, the embedding in an adaptive foresight framework and the implementation of a real-time Delphi
as a policy support tool used to inform and underpin strategy development and visioning, providing strategic forward-looking knowledge to policy-makers.
The first findings were submitted then for assessment by a large numbbe of experts via a broad participatory tool, the Delphi survey.
importance of communities of users as sources of talent, information, feedback and content via tools to create,
development of innovative tools for content creation, publication and online access; and increasing pressure on users'attention and increased difficulty to navigate content.
technology issues (e g. usability, methods and tools for multi-channel production; regulatory issues (e g. balance between monopoly and competition, digital rights;
human computer interfaces or creativity enhancing tools. The need for standardisatiio and technical platforms to facilitate research
What tools/metrics/parameters work best to measure impacts? Can you point to any major policy,
so that they can integrate the important tools of technology foresiigh into advice to government. The UK seems to have developed this capacity the most where the science advisor has repeatedly been able to engaag key ministries as joint sponsors and receptoor for the results.
low opportunity cost testing for many infectious agents Ability to test large numbers of people in a noninterventionist manner Broad screening tools Improved border biosecurity Personalized
In Thailand, Ram Rangsin, a Thai medical expert, has been conducting a project on developing policy recommenddation of the EID surveillance system for the Thai government.
a range of tools to enhance capabiliit in these areas needs to be developed specificaall for the Asia-pacific region,
the concept of smarter informmatio collection and management is an integrra part of adoption of new processes and tools.
and the need for tools to facilitate the integration of knowledge into the increasingly interdisciplinary development process.
The main contribution of this work involves the development of a‘segmentation forecastting tool for prior-to-launch prediction of adoption potentiial and the development of a blueprint for better introduction strategies for ICT innovations in today's volatile market environment.
Furthermore, the traditional user-research tools (including methods such as foccu groups, surveys etc. have been supplemented by alternative analytical methods (e g. archetype reseaarch personas, scenarios, proxy technology assesssmen etc.
methood and tools into interdisciplinary user-driven innovattio research (e g. in the living lab setting)( Feurstein et al.,
176) This challenge requires a consolidation of knowleddg and tools from various disciplines (e g. foresigght design,
development teams are forced now to explore new and interdisciplinary methodological tools. Challenge 2: Integration of knowledge:
It was mentioned that this predominant focus on the user led to an expannsio of the traditional range of user research instruument with methods and tools from other fields.
there is a lack of robust tools to enable context and co-creation research in living labs. Furthermore,
A software tool to relate technical performance to user experience in a mobile context. Proceedings of the 2008 Internatiiona Symposium on a World of Wireless
Pointner and Rammer, 2005 (for Austria; Görg and Strobl, 2007 (for Ireland. 1 A major advantage of the matching methods rather than the regression approach is that the matching is nonparametric.
+Pointner and Rammer (2005), Austria Programme of promoting use of CIMT (Flexcim Programme, 1991 1996) 301 (a) Selection correction:
In RTD Evaluatiio Tool Box: Socioeconomic Evaluation of Public RTD Policies (EPUB), W Polt, J. Rojo, A Tübke, G Fahrenkrog and K Zinöcker (eds.
tools and methods. Research policy, 29 (4/5), 657 678. Görg, H and E Strobl 2007.
OECD. Pointner, W and C Rammer 2005. Wirkungsanalyse. In Diffusionsorienntiert Technologiepolitik Eine vergleichende Wirkungsanaalys für Österreich, die Schweiz, Deutschland und die USA, W Pointner and W Polt (eds..
Polt, W c Rammer, H Gassler, A Scibany and D Schartinger 2001. Benchmarking industry science relations: the role of framework conditions.
while the effort committed to advancing FTA as an adaptive tool (assisting governments to plan for incremental change) have been useful,
and combination of existing tools and aligning them to governance systems, to address the complexity of the grand challenges.
and collection and analysis of weak signals and wild cards has been facilitated by the rapid expansion of social networking capacities and online tools,
the transition to a sustainabbl society, health and lifestyles, agri-food or the development of new defence tools.
The experience of FTA practitioners in implementing foresight tools provides further evidence of the effectivenees of particular tools in meeting particular challenges in the most appropriate ways.
by employing a number of tools and methods. A key factor in success is to start the exercise after a robust collective planning Step in the pre foresight phase of this methodological approach (see Section 4),
the methods and tools to be applied are considdere and strategies to think out-of-the-box are discussed
and stakeholdders applying a variety set of methods and tools, and a suitable combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches.
and for applyiin a variety of methods and tools to bring the main issues impacting a given foresight exercise to the table.
methods and tools that may fit the needs of the exercise better, to be mobilized. Participatory management structures are recommended highly to allow for‘on the fly'decisions to be made once the exercise starts.
and electronic tools, among other tools, are applied in order to revise and transform mind-sets, and understand possible futures associated with the main issues under analysis. In this phase,
The understanndin of the chosen tools, workshop objectives, and the scope of the exercise depends on how best these are communicated to participants,
the political changes that could affect it as a government-owned company. 5. 2 Future perspectives A tool the future timeline was developed
The timeline tool was chosen as an alternative to the method of scenarios, because the uncertainty and compleexit of the environment demanded an approach which offered stakeholders a tool for collective reasoning without the need to definine strategies or elaborate decisions,
as the method of scenarios normally requires. A‘timeline, 'as conceived in this case, is the representation of a temporal sequence of possible future events,
techniques and tools is one of the characteristics of future studies, as has been highligghte by Porter et al.
The timeline tool was used also as an alternative for scenario planning. The guidelines used in the process include:.
tools and techniques according to the methodological approach utilized and to support the mobilization of all of the stakeholders involved and expertise,
Note 1. CGEE's website Delphi and survey tool allows for gathering experts'opinion using questionnaires tailored to the investigation of both broad and narrow topic domains.
De Geus, A. 2002) Tools for Foresight: Planning for the Unpredictable Future. Cambridge, MA: Harvard Business Press.
Godet, M. 2001) Creating Futures Scenario planning as a Strategic management Tool. Washington: Economica. Habegger, B. 2010)‘ Strategic foresight in public policy:
Johnston, R. 2010)‘ Methods and tools for breaking mindsets and bringing new perspectives to the table',paper presented at Foresight International Seminar:
'Rather they should be seen merely as a graphic tool enabling us to locate the programs visually in a four-axis diagram.
The five-year plans are the most obvious and structured tool of China's economic planning process in the sense that that it is clear to everyone
In this regard, FTA as a tool of governance could have a promising role to play in reorienting innovattio systems towards grand challenges. 5. FTA for orienting innovation systems towards grand challenges Th paper takes FTA to refer to systematic processes
However, it is agreed generally that existing policy implementation tools for STI cooperation fall short of adequately supporting broad-based collaborative action at the scale
The ERA NET scheme is one of the tools of the Seventh Framework programme (FP7) to support the coordination of non-Community research programmes.
Bach, L. and Matt, M. 2005)‘ From economic foundations to S&t policy tools: A comparative analysis of the dominant paradigms'.
Mcgraw-hill. Gassler, H.,Polt, W. and Rammer, C. 2008)‘ Priority setting in technology policy historical developments and recent trends'.
including a more widespread use of web 2. 0 tools. In addition to access to new resources and knowledge, Ko nno la et al (2012a) consider that international networkiin
Identifying weak signals and developiin scenarios are crucial tools in preparing for the unexpeccted thus enabling a clearer understanding of possible pathways to tackle the challenges,
Tiits, M. and Kalvet, T. 2011)‘ Foresight as an innovation policy tool in smaller catching-up economies:
Collaborative design tools empowering customers SOLUTIONS: Green rating incorporated in pricing throughout the building life-cycle;
and different types of collaborative design tools to empower customers. In the medium-to long-term the key solutions included, for example:
ICT offers achievable data and easy-to-use tools for the people to decrease their ecological footprint
and services Skype and social media based solutions are challenging the teleconferencing solutions Basic life cycle analysis software Ecodesign tools Integrated industrial production becoming mainstream,
same facility New ICT-based tools and processes for the design and operation of factories Digitalized production processes, like virtual prototyping Intelligent products with life cycle management modules
and recycling solutions Modelling and simulation technologies required for LCA tools Wireless sensors Image processing technologies AMR hardware and software Mobile technologies Advanced identification and recognition technologies
and new ICT-based tools and processes are available for the whole production life-cycle. Remote collaboration services provide a sense of telepresence over the internet, resulting in a more extensive use of teleworking and virtual conferencing.
In the medium term, ecodesign tools are used widely to minimize the environmental impacts of products over their life cycle.
New ICT-based tools and processes are available for the design and operation of factories.
and examine some recent European experiences using foresight as a co-ordination tool embedded in the facilitation of transnational research collaboration.
Dealing with this complexity requires co-ordination tools that are able to address the above-mentioned potential tensions.
In the search for such tools we first take a look at key functions in research programming,
For instance in Europe knowledgeshaarin platforms offer tools, good practices and informattio on the current (through mapping of existing programmes), planned (through policy documents) and possible future7 state of research priority setting and research systems.
The instruments and tools used by one mechanism can be useful in supporting others. 13
In particulaar the role of a supporting tool like foresight for engaging and mobilising the innovation communities can be crucial for understanding
and research themes as relevant‘units of analysis'that experts could assess with an internet-based decision support tool.
it is possible to apply differren tools and methods as long as the results are presennte in a similar manner.
A set of examples of internet-based tools allowing for integration of data of all sorts in future-oriented technollog analysis can be found in Haegeman et al.
journals. permissions@oup. com A relevant tool for this purpose is defined horizon scanning as:..the systematic examination of potential future) problems, threats, opportunities and likely future developments, including those at the margins of current thinking and planning.
It combines tools, methods and networks for effective scanning and analysis. 2 Horizon scanning places great emphasis on building a holistic framewoor
as well as the different scanning approaches and scanning tools that were applied in the SESTI project. Section 3 provides a comparative analysis of the two scanning approaches
and the associated tools that were used in SESTI. Building on the advantages and disadvantages of each tool and method, Section 4 evaluates the different approaches and tools based on evaluation criteria reflectiin the information needs of policy-makers about new and future opportunities and threats.
Finally, Section 5 draws conclusions on how horizon scanning can be used to improve policy formulation and dialogue. 2. Defining and clarifying concepts 2. 1 Weak signals alongside emerging issues and wild cards Horizon scanning implies a search process,
This can be done by using automated tools such as news alerts and feeds, Google trends as well as automated text-mining.
Automated text-mining tools as well as databases that allow for tagging and categorisation can help with clustering individual observations.
where text-mining can be used as a tool for analysis. It is important is that the search profile is focused on the selection of sources to be used (wiki,
Automatic tools are seen as methods to support the scanning for potentially highly important weak signals and to monitor
Rather it provides tools to alert for potential impact-rich issues that need policy attention. In order to identify and assess the primary signals,
and scanning tools Both of the above approaches used the internet as their main source of information.
Concepts and methods in horizon scanning. 211 In the SESTI project the following tools were used for the scanning:
the scanning tools can be grouped with regards to the level of participation, and the means of processing information.
surveys and visits to conferences and seminars while other tools like the initiation of a wiki and the active use of blogs and micro-blogging can encourage wider participation and dialogue.
A focused expert review supported by internet scanning has the advantage that it can use any available source and tool that is on the internet.
Based on the SESTI experience, an expert survey should be regarded as an additiiona tool with which to evaluate the issues which are identified,
The disadvantage is that the publicly available text-mining software is not yet useful for analysing audiovisual material. 3. Comparative analysis of tools for exploratory
and tools that were used in their correct context, the main phases of the SESTI scanning process should first be clarified. 3. 1 SESTI scanning process Three main phases can be distinguished,
in order to draw conclusions about the implications for policy. 3. 2 Comparative analysis of methods and tools applied during the SESTI project The focused expert review could be used for the entire scanning process.
Database tools that are connected to search engines such as Google news Timeline, Google Insight, Web of Science, 9 or Gapminder10 are very helpful for this purpose.
Another advantage of internet scanning is that it uses all available sources of information on the internet (including audiovisual information) as well as web tools such as those mentioned above.
The focused expert review can also make use of all the tools for the identification of signals (phase 1). In the SESTI project online tools
and especially web 2. 0 tools were used in different ways. The tool that turned out to be less useful was the SESTI wiki.
The reluctance of the community to contribute made it difficult to use this tool in any of the scanning phases.
Wikis and surveys are participative methods, and thus the representativeness, level of expertise, and commitment of participants are critical factors for success. The survey conducted in the SESTI project was confronted also with the limited time and visibility of the contributors.
This makes that specific tool less appropriate for the identification phase. However, expert surveys can be quite useful in the processing
Twitter can also be used as an interactive tool. However, online software tools for clustering Twitter tweets are necessary, especially for the processing and analysis phases,
but these have not yet been developed. With the availability of such tools Twitter could allow a continuing clustering of signals related to emerging issues.
Policy-makers who were interviewed within the SESTI project noted the importance of methods that allow for identifying the connections, clustering of signals and the stakeholders behind them.
To obtain this information (micro-)blogs are becoming interesting tools with which to analyse which communities have taken up specific issues
In general, however, the potential of Twitter to become a main tool for retrieving future-oriented information is high as colleagues,
Overall, micro-blogging is one of the social web tools that could change how science is perceived and how 214.
With a better understanding of the blogosphher it would be possible to develop tools to use collective wisdom to scan future-related signals and emerging issues.
One important opportunity in this process is to use web 2. 0 tools in a participatory way to involve interesting potential contributors (in particular a broad variety of experts)
Clustering blog sites presents new challenges for information science (Agarwal et al. 2010) as no tools are yet available.
the tools of the social web will remain mainly as additional tools which can be used by experts
needs more sophisticated tools to capture the emerging and novel nature of weak signals. However, text-mining is useful in the processing phase as it identifies networks and clusters of concepts and phrases within huge data sets.
A first assessment of the tools used in the scanning process in the SESTI project is given in Table 2. 3. 3 Policy workshops
possible controversies and disruptions may emerge alongsiid a general frustration about the lost opportunity to be informed earlier about the potential upcoming developmennts This forms a difficult challenge for scanners who Table 2. Comparison of tools
and interesst of policy-makers and the degree to which they are met by the different tools
For example, the exploratory scanning approach represented by tools such as text-mining, Twitter or wiki scanning hardly goes beyond the second phase,
and can be assisted by other tools. Any useful evaluation of different methods based on the information needs of policy-makers should apply to methods
Following the framework of tools and methods presented in Fig. 2 certain combinations of methods can be created to provide a complete evaluation along the scanning process.
These combinatiion present different features in terms of the degree of automation of the tools that are used and the degree to
which they depend on participatory tools bringing together experts'knowledge (cf. Table 4). Table 5 evaluates the three combined approaches based on the criteria mentioone in Table 3. The SESTI experience of applying these methods (not necessarily as combined above) revealed that it is importaan to have several alternative methods
In general, across all combined tools the value of the‘human factor'outweiighe the benefits of any automation tool as these are dependent on a human mind understanding,
Additionally, expert networks were invited through web-based tools to help in the search for early warning signals.
For the more creative function this method needs to be complemented with tools and participative processes that,
on human imagination and creativvity Within the SESTI project different text-mining techniques were used for this purpose as well as exercises which used participative web tools such as Wikipedia,
expert review+survey+conferences) Automation tools Search engines, automated news aggregators, topic finders Text-mining based on proximity of words and frequency of terms.
use of tools like google timeline in focused expert review; as reported in literature/discussed in conferences Origins High Medium Medium As included/connected to info piece As revealed by text-mining;
use of tools like google timeline in focused expert review; as reported in literature/discussed in conferences Ethical, legal, societal issues Medium High High Expert discussions, futurists symposia,
Tools such as Google Insight, Statistics or Google news Timeline that allow us to obtain metadata as well as backward views on issue-related information,
Overall, it can be said that the added value of emerging issue scans lies in the strategic combination of all available tools to broaden the spectrum of possible signals
It is equally important to utilise automated tools for the clustering and network analysis of issues
No use was made from more advanced tools as web-crawler or spyware. 5. See<http//news google. com/news/advanced news search?
Overtext Web Module V3.0 Alpha
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