but very many of these are of the form‘Scenarios plus X'.Apart from combining recognised FTA METHODS,
and using scenarios. In planning subsequent such FTA gatherings, it may be useful to look for signs of shared sense-making frameworks able to encompass, on the one hand, a tightly constrained roadmapping of a given technology within the assumptions of a specific scenario of national/European competitiveness,
and on the other hand, an account of ways to think about policy options based on the indeterminacy of complex emergent innovation systems
the consideration of scenario analysis as a method includes both the development and the use of scenarios.
Foresight Users Policy Scenarios Dutch government Local National A b s T R A c T In this paper, we discuss the opinions
because they may be involved in the development phase of scenarios as well as the usage phase of a foresight study. 2. 2. Methods
whether they involved the use of scenarios for strategic policy-making and whether there was sufficient willingness to cooperate with the study and access to civil servants for interviews and other data sources.
The case involving the Province of Limburg concerns the use of two scenario studies, each in the context of the development of a strategic environment plan (see 16,
In the development process of the first environment plan, qualitative scenarios were developed by an external organisation in a broad participatory process.
In the development of the second plan, quantitative scenarios were produced. Policy-makers from the provincial organisation were involved more thoroughly in the development of the scenarios.
The empirical evidence for this paper is based on three indeept interviews with policy-makers who were involved closely in the development of the scenarios, the analysis of the scenario studies,
and the environment plans. N. Rijkens-Klomp P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 19 The Overschie case involves the development and use of a qualitative scenario analysis as a strategic building block for a new strategic coalition
which developed four generic qualitative scenarios for the city of The hague 22. The scenarios were used to reflect on the strategies of the city council's urban development Investment Programme.
Using a questionnaire 16 civil servants evaluated the development process of the scenarios. The two project coordinators of the Investment Programme were interviewed after the development of the scenarios.
In all cases, the scope of the analysis was the future of a territorial entity,
including all of its functions, with a time horizon of at least 10 years. At the local level, a document analysis was combined with interviews with policymakers.
The document analysis focused on documents regarding the scenarios and related strategic policy documents. The insights from this analysis were juxtaposed with the insights from the interviews.
and was one of the authors of the scenarios. One of the authors conducted both national level inquiries that were used as data sources for this article.
in addition to scenarios (with which 99%of the respondents were familiar), most civil servants were also familiar with‘future essays',quantitative futures research, the Delphi method, game simulations and future workshops.
where only four out of nine studies were based on scenario thinking. However in the different studies of the future in the‘organizational foresight'study, a more equal balance was found between expected, possible,
In all local cases, the main ambition was to use scenarios to raise awareness of a changing future
and process-driven motives for using the scenario analysis method in the different phases (see also the distinction between process-oriented and product-oriented development of scenarios 10).
It appears to be a huge step for policy-makers at the local level to link scenario insights to the agendasetttin and policy preparation phases.
On comparison, it appears that the connection between the results of the scenarios and the strategic policy-process is closer at the national level than it is at the regional level.
At the local level, it seems to be difficult at any phase in the policy cycles to use the results of scenario studies in an optimal way. 3. 4
In the past, some local policy-makers experienced a tendency among politicians to underpin policies by most likely scenarios.
Scenarios are meant also to test the robustness and N. Rijkens-Klomp P. Van der Duin/Futures 59 (2014) 18 26 22 flexibility of strategies,
In the strategic policy documents, we discovered that this connection between scenarios and strategies is also (in part) lacking.
and scenario frameworks are suitable to the needs of the strategic policy process. For example policy-makers who are inexperienced in the use of foresight methods may find it difficult to decide which type of scenarios to develop/use
and whether to develop new scenarios or use existing ones. They have no clear guidelines that take the dynamics of the policy landscape and different stages of strategic policy processes into account.
When people are not familiar with the scenario analysis method, steering elements are implemented sometimes in the scenarios,
as a result of which the concrete added value of the scenarios for the purpose of visioning and strategy development can end up being obscured.
According to the policy-makers at the local level another challenge is to know which information sources they should use to develop the scenarios themselves.
Some policy-makers found it difficult to assess the quality of the sources of information regarding future developments.
and use of scenarios requires skills that were lacking when local organisations decided to conduct a foresight study for the first time.
ownership of the scenarios was unclear in some cases. Policy-makers indicated that they want to remain in control during the development (and use) of the foresight study.
the timing of the scenarios will be compared different to a situation where the motive is to test policies by means of scenarios (the latter will take place at a later stage in the policy process).
Different methods of foresight (for example different types of qualitative scenarios) are available, different reasons and motives for setting up a foresight study may be legitimate,
Guidelines for Strategic foresight, Social Technologies, LLC, Washington, 2006.2 K. van der Heijden, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation, Wiley, Chichester, 2005.3 H. Kahn, A. Wiener, The Year 2000, Macmillan, New york, 1967.4 P. Schwartz, The Art of the Long View, Wiley
Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios, Wiley, New york, 2002.6 EEA, Looking back on looking forward: a review of evaluative scenario literature, in:
Policy Cycles and Policy Subsystems, Oxford university Press, Oxford, 2003.9 G. Ringland, Scenarios In public Policy, John Wiley & Sons, West sussex, 2002.10 P. van Notten
Scenario's maken en gebruiken voor beleidsontwikkeling, wetgeving en handhaving, (Governing is Looking Forward. Developing and Using Scenarios for Policy-making, Lawmaking and Conservation), Expertiseceentru Rechtshandhaving, Den haag, 2004.12 D. Gosselin, B. Tindemans, Toekomst makers.
De kunst van het vooruitdenken,(Future Designers. The Art of Looking Forward), Lannoo Campus, Leuven, 2010.13 P. P. Sabatier, H. Jenkins-Smith, Policy change and Learning:
Excellent in Europe), TNO-Eindrapport, TNO Inro, Delft, 1998.17 Provincie Limburg, Limburg, een generatie verder. 4 scenario's over demografie, economie en milieu
(Limburg, One Generation Further. 4 Scenarios on Demographics, Economy and the Environment), Maastricht, 2006.18 Provincie Limburg, Provinciaal Omgevingsplan Limburg.
insights from the FORLEARN mutual learning process, Technology analysis & Strategic management 20 (2008) 369 387.26 J. Schoonenboom, Toekomstscenario's en beleid,(Scenarios and policies), Beleid en Maatschappij
M. B. A. van Asselt, Practicing the scenario-axes technique, Futures 39 (6)( 2006) 15 30.31 M. Van der Steen, M. van der Vlist,
Lessons from a scenario and roadmapping exercise on manufacturing systems Cristiano Cagnin a b,,*Totti Ko nno la c adg Joint research Centre for Prospective and Technological Studies (JRC-IPTS), Seville, Spain b Center for Strategic studies and Management
Innovation International foresight Roadmapping Scenarios Vision-building A b s T R A c T Geographical dispersion, organisational and cultural differences,
Ko nno la et al. 15 claim that stakeholders'diversity1 is important to foster innovation capabilities through the creation of viable alternatives (scenarios) that escape the existing dominant designs
Four scenario snapshots of possible states of the future by 2025 were developed. Based on these the IMS2020 Vision was defined.
The meetings conducted during crucial phases such as the scenario formulation and the definition of a common vision for the roadmapping work.
T. Ko nno la/Futures 59 (2014) 27 38 31 3. 2. Scenarios and joint vision A more in depth analysis of the findings of the state of the art and expectations
The results were the basis for the selection of the variables used to develop the scenarios within the IMS2020 project.
The scenario work was devised and coordinated by JRC-IPTS. Project partners were engaged throughout this activity with support from JRC-IPTS.
but most importantly to scan dimensions used in previous scenario and roadmapping projects; 2. Linking the findings of previous projects and research with the results of the mapping, the interviews and the first online survey.
5. Positioning the scenario snapshots within the defined framework. At first, JRC-IPTS proposed that the snapshots to be developed should be those at the corner of each quadrant.
Fig. 3. IMS2020 scenarios. 7 Microsoft Sharepoint Workspace is a desktop application designed for document collaboration in teams with members who are regularly off-line
In a second stage and after approval of the defined scenario snapshots by all project partners and IMS regions, including the roadmapping support group,
project partners had to assess all features within each snapshot scenario with respect to the likelihood and desirability of these becoming reality by 2020.
and an edited book. 4. Revisiting the principles for global foresight The IMS2020 scenario and roadmapping process shed light on some of the challenges that arise
Finally, it supported the scenario and roadmapping work which had to be adapted in order to closely involve partners during a period of almost two months.
This enabled the selection of the variables used to jointly develop the scenarios, which also used inputs from the online surveys and the wiki open consultation.
and cultures The most critical stage during the project was the scenario and vision building.
This is because none of the partners beyond JRC-IPTS were acquainted with foresight and the alternative processes for building scenarios, joint visions and roadmaps.
workshops) Use of common foresight with emphasis on expected impacts Literature review Online survey for the collection of ideas Scenarios and joint vision Multiple scenarios for synthesising drivers inputs in various forms
to identify key elements for the joint vision Multiple approaches to develop scenarios Online elaboration of scenarios
The meetings were dedicated to the crucial phases such as the scenario formulation and the common definition of the vision for the roadmapping work.
Such flexibility was very important during the scenario and vision building processes. In both cases meetings not initially planned were scheduled with selected partners
As mentioned, the scenario and vision building process required considerable behaviour and expectation management. In the first scenario building workshop a discussion of how scenarios could be deployed
and the variables to be selected had to take place. Rather than having partners developing scenarios as planned,
the first workshop had to be downscaled and Table 2 Interacting with stakeholders. Stakeholders Selection process Type of network Methods for engaging
. Since there was only one extra workshop planned for the scenario work, JRCIPPT proposed a different approach than the one decided at the kickoff meeting:
After all developed scenarios were approved by partners and stakeholders the second planned workshop was devoted to develop a common vision.
such as the one mentioned for developing scenarios and a shared vision. As for results, these have been adapted for use by the European commission
At the same time, the way in which the scenarios, the shared vision, and the final roadmaps were presented made it possible for reach out to both the research
The development of scenarios, the vision building process and the final roadmaps included not only expectations, needs and viewpoints from the IMS region,
and appropriate funding mechanisms. 5. Conclusions The IMS2020 scenario and roadmapping process shed light on how future global collaborative research
Milano, March 2010.26 C. Cagnin, Scenarios Snapshots and IMS2020 Vision. Deliverable D2. 2. of IMS2020, Project Number 233469,2009. 27 A. Rolstadas, IMS2020 roadmap for sustainable manufacturing research, in:
Moreover, other Foresight methods such as horizon scanning, scenarios, customer and technology trend analysis, and roadmapping are used commonly for the identification of technological opportunities and exploration of possible future markets in this respect.
imagine and create‘future TV experience'-scenarios. The probe consisted of seven small assignments/questions, one for each day in a week.
The second phase (strategic diagnostic) combines a method for analysing business environments (SWOT analysis) with a method for constructing scenarios (the Global Business Network.
The combination of SWOT and GBN stimulates joint reflections on the future in terms of scenarios i e. the way in which strengths and weaknesses, both internal (firm) and external environment, including value chain),
here the results of the Strategic Diagnosis (second phase) will be analysed in terms of its impacts on alternative scenarios.
and feedback mechanisms (phase 4) did not generate new strategies (phase 1). Once such link could not materialise it was not possible to develop scenarios based upon strategic diagnosis (phase 2),
The analysis of strengths and weaknesses (SWOT analysis) stimulated an important reflection in terms of the future via the application of the Global Business Network scenarios.
since these have not been considered in the scenarios and projections for the years to come. 3. 3. An example from the not for profit sector 3. 3. 1. Rationale The third case was selected due to the growing importance of the third sector in Brazil and worldwide.
This is true even in stages one would believe to be otherwise, like in the development of scenarios, in the construction of strategy maps or in the strategic management of initiatives.
26 Analysis of scenarios 68 Performance Prism 33 The balanced scorecard fails because of difficulties that are encountered during the implementation phase 1,
P. Schwartz, Plotting Your Scenarios, Global Business Network (GBN), San francisco, 2004.28 C. W. Choo, Environmental scanning as information seeking and organizational learning, Information Research 7
lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on manufacturing systems, Futures (2014)( forthcoming. 52 M. G. Lipe, S. E. Salterio, The balanced scorecard:
combining external and internal scenarios to create strategic foresight, Management Decision 43 (2005) 360 381.69 M. J. Epstein,
multipath mapping (Robinson and Propp, 2006) Scenarios Scenario management, quantitatively based scenarios, different emphases and dark scenarios (Punie et al.
threats) and scorecard analyses (Sripaipan, 2006), analytical hierarchy process, data envelopment analysis, multicriteria decision analyses Combinations Scenario-simulation (gaming),
The scenarios revealed an EID lifecycle model, which helps to understand how technology can be used to combat EID at every stage of their lifecycle.
Dark scenarios as a constructive tool for future-oriented technology analysis: safeguaard in a world of ambient intelligence (SWAMI.
and synthesis Workshop Cross-linkages With policy Themed Scenarios Extranet Peer review Discussion groups Updated database Finalised Themed Scenarios Final database Reports and multimedia Output data analysis phase
and Public policy February 2010 16 weak signals and wild cards that may be used to assees the robustness of results that may come from other forward-looking tools as planning, scenarios and quantitative modelling.
The project succeeded in defining scenarios for the creative content industries, offering distinct trajectories and raising different policy challenges.
The use of the scenario technique turned out to be essenttial as was the mix of both open participatory and restricted process elements to tackle sensitive policy issues.
a sector analysiis a Delphi survey, a scenario process leading to an analysis of issues and a final policy analysis.
This fed into the scenario developmeent which was based on the close involvement of a restricted number of experts.
through a validattio workshop where stakeholders from the varioou creative content sub-sectors and policy-makers were invited to give their views on the scenarios devellope
value chain Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Policy implications Drivers, enablers, threats contextual factors Consensus vs controversial issues Scenario analysis
23 The scenarios aimed to synthesise the insights about potential impacts (including the differences in opinion about the impacts of some trends.
In order to tackle the diversity of the creative content sub-sectors, the scenarios addressed two levels, namely the creative content sector in general and specificities of at least some sub-sectors.
After the scenario stage, we extracted‘key issuees 'which in the end made up the main dimenssion for the overall impact assessment.
In addition, as neithhe of the two possible future developments seemed to be more likely than the other it was necessary to add the (originally unforeseen) scenario process
Design of scenarios for the future The sector analysis carried out as the first step of the process
The addition of a scenario process emerged at that point as a necessary new building block to our adaptiiv foresight methodology.
As a second step possible dimensions for the scenarios'axes were discussed and an agreement was reached on the two dimensions that would characteeris meaningful and sufficiently differentiated scenarios.
Split into smaller groups, the participants were asked to sketch a storyline and identify the key characteristics of their respective scenarios.
The projeec team completed a full-blown scenario descriptiio with the input from all participants after the workshop because of time constraints.
Four future scenarios In developing the four scenarrio the workshop participants considered the impaac of ICT innovation, user behaviours and other factors on the transformation of the creative content industries.
the four scenarios differ qualitatively from one another. We considered the framework conditions and technoloogica characteristics (e g. magnitude of sunk costs) that determine economic relations in the creatiiv content sector, on the one hand,
therefore those for positioning the four scenarios (see Figure 4). The boundaries between the scenarios are fixed not.
) were derived therefoor as the axes used to define the four scenarios: Incumbents take it all:
a situation where all Figure 4. Positioning of the four scenarios Competitive business environment Oligopolistic business environment Negative public attitude towards creative content, lack of demand Positive public
intermediate scenario between the previous two assuming that the creatiiv content sector is transformed rather than revolutionised.
Each scenario was described focussing on common elements like global context, infrastructure, practices of content production, distribution and use,
and interacction The scenarios led to a modification and further specification of our initial list of issues relevaan to the assessment of the impact of future sociotecchnoeconomic trends on the sustainability of the creative content sector.
Analysis of issues The fourth step of our methodology consisted of the analysis of the scenarios with a view to identifyyin issues that may have an impact on the future sustainability of the sector
To structuur our discussion we followed the common elemeent used in step 3 to systematically describe our scenarios (global context and key drivers
We therefore not only presented the scenarios'broad outlines but we also highlighted those key featuure likely to have implications for factors such as industry structure,
players'strategies or the legal environnment should a particular scenario be realised. This approach was very helpful for stimulating discusssions
they assessed the outcomes of the varying scenarios differeently Thus, the workshop was successful in identiffyin problem areas,
which scenario were to be realised, with varying consequences for the developmmen of the creative content industries, in particcula in terms of growth, jobs, social inclusion or cultural diversity,
Even though the scenarios reflect differrent often contradictory trends and uncertainties about the future of the creative content industry,
a number of important issues can be highlighted by looking across the scenarios. These issues may be technological,
which facilitates the potentially positive developments identified in some of the scenarios, while protecting citizens and consumers from the potential disadvantages.
As to the adequacy of the methodology for shapiin a vision of the creative content sector as such, we can conclude that the process helped raise key issues and controversies relevant to the sector as depicted by the four scenarios.
as reflected in the scenarios, the extent to which quality is expected to determine the future of several segments of the creative content sector.
scenarios and other means to raise awareness Reframing the debate: i e. suggesting or presenting a new action plan
literature reviews, scenarios, brainstorminng and expert panels. The most striking result is the popularity of the four methods:
and sub-national foresight exercises, followed by scenarios, analysis of trends and drivers and research priorities. There were also interesting differences observed.
Four scenarios and six technology roadmaps for the region were developed. The results show that many future technologies will converge to become most effective in dealing with biosecurity and EID.
Information flow through the two phases of the project is shown in Figure 2. Scenarios We used scenarios in attempts to develop internally consistent stories about possible futures (Tegart and Johnston,
and beyoond Thirty three experts from seven economies met in Thailand in February 2007 to develop scenarios for the future of EID in the Asia-pacific region.
and the uncertainties influencing these drivers were considerred Self-consistent scenarios were constructed then for an agreed time in the future.
or reduce the impact of the crisis as described in each scenario. Technology roadmapping The structure of the roadmaps used in this study was designed by adapting from the generic format of a product/technology roadmap (Phaal et al.
Results and policy impact/implications Scenarios and EID life cycle model The scenario workshop listed key drivers for EID in the areas of social, technology, economics, environmeent and politics (STEEP.
These resulted in the followiin four distinctive scenarios: Scenario 1: Malaria in Miami 2017. In February 2015, a family arrives in Miami, Florida from tropical Latin america.
A little girl was infected with an unknown strain of malaria. She had been bitten by carrier mosquitoes. There is no experience
Scenario 2: 20,000 people now confirmed dead from mystery disease. Recently, 20,000 people in Bangkok have been reported dead from a mystery disease
Scenario 3: Mysterious death Mysterious deaths were occurring in almost every economy around the world. 5000 people were reported to have been infected by the virus. The death rate was low
Scenario 4: Emerging rainforest syndrome. An epidemic, of unknown cause, occurred in ten countries. After tracing back for two years,
The scenario discussions revealed an EID life cycle model (see Figure 4), with four stages from preventiiv measures to surveillance and detection to treatmeen and prevention of spread.
Since the scenario workshop, this EID life cycle model has been employed throughout the project as the structure for discussions in the technology roadmapppin workshops in both Japan and Chinese Taipei and the final symposium in Bangkok.
Technology roadmaps Using inputs from the scenarios and the EID life cyclle experts at the following first technology roadmapppin workshop have identified key domains of technology research, namely ubiquitous computing, treatments,
Conclusion Bibliometric analysis and scenarios have been used to study the factors involved in initiation and spread of EID within the framework of the EID life cycle model.
The specific combination of methods (bibliometric analysis, online survey, scenario, and technology roadmapping) bears interesting potential and advannce important methodological issues in FTA.
Paper presented at the APEC Scenario Workshop on Converging technologies to combat EIDS, held at Khao Lak, Thailand.
have been supplemented by alternative analytical methods (e g. archetype reseaarch personas, scenarios, proxy technology assesssmen etc. from various disciplines (e g. design, foresight, fault tree analysis, anthropology etc.
In the pilot study, a photo-download application was for example devellope to simulate different download times (ranging from 0 to 5 second scenarios.
who were asked to indicate those scenarios that were accepttabl to them (for a good experience) in a mobiil context. 3. Monitoring of Qos parameters during use.
In this stage, the respondents tested the selected applicatiion Several usage scenarios had to be carried out,
By using several scenarios, the influence of repeated tests was minimized. The test users were not aware that the signal strength was manipulated. 4. Post-usage questions on device (e g.
Immediiatel after the completion of each scenario, the test users were asked to fill in a short experiennc questionnaire of six questions (five-point scales),
In such a scenario new applications that are tested in the natural environment would therefore only be an additional layer on top of the‘domesticated'netwoork and devices.
The scenarios that have been developed provide important insights into organisational options for international science and the roles that science, including the social
The timeline tool was chosen as an alternative to the method of scenarios, because the uncertainty and compleexit of the environment demanded an approach which offered stakeholders a tool for collective reasoning without the need to definine strategies or elaborate decisions,
as the method of scenarios normally requires. A‘timeline, 'as conceived in this case, is the representation of a temporal sequence of possible future events,
when identifying grand societal challenges as well as in translating an already identified grand challenge into an operational reality by defining scenarios,
Disruptive trends, events and scenarios explored in prograamme and projects and related findings, often prove difficult to transfer to potential users.
In this context, scenario work seems to allow fairly flexible frames for such overarching discussions, whereas a number of other methods are applied to develop future plans and action-oriented recommendations for decision-making.
2012) Addresses spatial dimension in gradual transformation, combining both reactive and deliberate approaches in scenario work that integrate spatial dimensions of urban planning Elements of different modes of governance addressed.
Identifying weak signals and developiin scenarios are crucial tools in preparing for the unexpeccted thus enabling a clearer understanding of possible pathways to tackle the challenges,
Scenario-based monitoring not only applies to the problems and challenges ahead, but also to the FTA systems that are already in place.
scenarios; International council for science. 1. Introduction Responses to grand challenges, if they are to be effective, will depend on science.
while the issues covered and various scenarios developed can be adapted and updated to suit the needs of multiple users.
allowing for exploration of possible futures and for articulation of a visionary‘success scenario'..'Scope: While the exercise was intended to increase ICSU's organisational agility
including an online survey, two expert-led scenario workshops, and other consultation processes..Participation: Foresight exercises usually demand broad participation for their success
As a consequence, the results generated in the later stages of the project (essentially the visionary success scenario) have shaped perhaps not ICSU's new strategic plan to the degree that was planned originally
and validate a visionary‘success scenario'of where ICSU should be Going in the process, conduct a broad consultaation in particular utilising the ICSU General assembly as a forum for member opinions including 170.
M. Keenan et al. views on regional differences on the success scenario and its implications for the ICSU.
Scenarios are intended also to offer a platform to expose and begin to address differing views among a large community about its shared future.
A two-day scenario workshop involving the Task Team was held in April 2010 in order to sharpen the forecasts
and to use them as a basis for developing contrasting explorrator scenarios of the future of international science cooperation.
In a following step, scenarios were developed within four distinct‘scenario spaces'framed by two axes selected from the list of key drivers (van't Klooster and van Asselt 2006.
They should generate distinct scenario spaces that are interesting, useful, and relevant with regard to the future of international science..
All scenario spaces should plausibly be able to include positive and negative traits and thus be presented in a balanced manner.
M. Keenan et al. drivers in an earlier step were mapped now into the four scenario spaces to create coherent storylines.
the exploratoor scenarios were redrafted several times. The CSPR played an important role in further sharpening the scenarrio at its September 2010 meeting, after
making several specific suggestions for improving the scenarios that were incorporated duly. The resulting explorative scenarios,
which are outlined briefly in Fig. 1, offer four distinct, yet plausible images of the future‘world order'and of international science cooperation 20 years from now.
it is a near certainty that none of these scenarios will come to pass as articulated.
Instead, the four scenarios offer subjective storylines intended to stimulate creative thinking and to expand the‘possibility space'on future courses of action.
Developing a visionary‘success scenario'.'Phase 3 saw the exercise shift its focus from preparing exploratory scenarios to the development of Engaged National Global Detached Science for sale in a global market place Globalism driven largely by multinationals An international division
'173 a more visionary‘success scenario'intended to help guide the long-term direction of ICSU.
In the ICSU exercise, the success scenario was drafted by the ICSU Secretariat using the results of a dedicated one-day scenario workshop involving all members of CSPR
The four exploratory scenarios articulated in Phase 2 provided stimulus for more creative thinking on a desirable success scenario
The resulting success scenario has a 20-year time horizon outlining the contours of a desirable state of international cooperation in science in 2031 and ICSU's role in its achievement.
As the success scenario runs to several pages only its general contours are presented in Box 2. Through‘backcasting'from the future success scenario of 2031 to the present day,
a number of practical steps were identified as milestones along the way to achieving this desirable outcome.
These included key roles for ICSU to play in achieving the success scenario by 2031,
The internal impacts of the success scenario are less certain at the time of writing,
there is every likelihood that the success scenario will be adopted formally as ICSU's long-term desirable vision for internatioona science
3 The impacts of selected wild cards can then be analysed by‘running them through'the success scenario.
Science Forum in Budapest in November 2011) the explorrator scenarios were picked quickly up and featured in an article in Nature (Macilwain 2011).
This can be taken as a strong signal of the likely interest of the science policy community in the scenarios. 4. 2 Lessons in conducting international foresight Reflecting on the approach taken in the ICSU foresight,
The visionary success scenario outlines what would be happening in international science in 2031 if it was operating in an effective and successful way Science is thriving
Box 2. Outline of 2031 success scenario for international science cooperation. Orienting international science cooperation to meet global‘grand challenges'.
For example, experiences with international foresight using scenarios have been described by Cagnin and Ko nno la (2011) for the domain of intelligent and sustainable manufacturing,
Bo rjeson, L.,Ho jer, M.,Dreborg, K.,Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. 2006)‘ Scenario types and techniques:
lessons from scenario and roadmapping process on intelligent and sustainable manufacturing systems, 'paper presented at the Fourth International Seville Conference on Future-oriented technology analysis, held Seville, Spain, 12 may 2011.
Scenarios for the European research Landscape 2025. Munich: Fraunhofer Gesellschaft. ICSU. 2006) Strengthening International Science for the Benefit of Society:
Ogilvy, J. and Schwartz, P. 1998)‘ Plotting your scenarios'.'In: Fahey, L. and Randell, R. eds) Learning from the future.
European Science Foundation. van‘t Klooster, S. A. and van Asselt, M. B. A. 2006)‘ Practising the scenario-axes technique',Futures, 38:15 30.
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