we have to reconsider some key concepts that underlie future-oriented analysis and strategic management. Two sources of unpredictability In much of contemporary thinking, failures in prediction indicate a need to engage in further study and research.
According to Knight, in the latter case, the concept of probability or chance is simply inapplicable. Knight maintained that most business decisions are made in unique contexts that make statistical inference impossible and
This concept of‘ontological uncertainty'thus somewhat paradoxically requires that there is no uncertainty about the underlying ontology.
As uncertainty tends to be an inherently epistemic concept, we distinguish between (epistemic uncertainty and (ontological) unpredictability.
In the next section, we further clarify this concept. Ontological unpredictability The nature of ontological unpredictability can most conveniently be understood in the context of innovation theory.
Ontological expansion and foresight research The above discussed concepts of unpredictability and ontological expansion shed some new light on recent discussions on foresight research.
but whether society fits into the concept of‘computers and you'or‘computers or you'is a matter of social concern that is unlikely to be resolved by the turn of the century,
which makes the original false conception come true...Such are the perversities of social logic'(Merton 1968,477.
Concepts spaces and tools. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. Willyard, C. H, . and Mcclees, C. 1997. Motorola's technology roadmap process.
We expand our understanding of environmental uncertainty by defining the concept of‘boundary uncertainty, 'which regards the identity of the components of the businees (micro) environment.
We thus expand our understanding of environmental uncertainty by defining the concept of‘boundary uncertainty'
The strategic management theory expands the concept of task environment by defining the broader concept of business micro environment
A relevant example has been the development of the‘Smart'car concept. A scenario building process was carried out with a special focus on changing mobility patterns in urban lifestyles,
The foresight process then investigated the technical and economic feasibility of the concept, which the top management decided to endorse by establishing a new brand and a subsidiary start-up.
A corporate unit (Philips Design) established in the 1990s delivers innovative design concepts and services for the company main businesses.
as it focused its value proposition on the‘Sense and Simplicity'concept. In this context Philips Design and Philips Research have developed jointly the‘Ambient Intelligence'vision,
and storage and started to develop and to experiment with innovative product concepts in all its business divisions.
Anotable example is the Ambilight concept (Ambient Lighting Technology), which aimed at enhancing the home cinema experience by generating lighting effects around the TV SET that match the video content,
which cooperate in the experimentation and development of innovative ideas, newproduct concepts, and prototypes. A model for uncertainty and strategic foresight In the prior sections, we sketched the strategic foresight approaches that emerged from our data through
and thus to shed light on the concept of‘boundary uncertainnty'Let us consider the chemical and automotive industries first.
Building on the concept of boundary uncertainty, we distinguish between two main types of drivers of change.
First, we define the concepts of‘boundary'uncertainty and‘continuous'and‘discontinuous'drivers of change and we thus improve our understanding of the different kinds of uncertainty a firm may face in its business environment.
Analytical concepts. St paul, MN: West. Knight, F. H. 1921. Risk, uncertainty, and profit. Newyork: Hart, Schaffner & Marx.
Hence, business sustainability evolves from the linear concept of a value chain introduced by Porter (1985) or the current paradigm of supply chain management or value nets (Bovet and Martha 2000a, 2000b, 2000c, 2000d, 2000e.
The concept of a value chain became fundamental to strategic planning once Porter described how a firm can use it to identify sources of differentiation
On concepts and methods in horizon scanning: Lessons from initiating policy dialogues on emerging issues. Science and Public policy 39, no. 2: 208 21.
Anexamination of the‘sustainable competitive advantage'concept: Past, present, and future. Academy of Marketing Science Review 2000, no. 4: 1 16.
The value marketing chain concept finds a place in the health care environment. Marketing Health Services 19, no. 1: 14 19.
Concept Concept Concept Concept Concept Concept AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 AGENDA 21 OECD guide
These ideas and concepts are elaborated below. Knowledge spaces and roadmap scopes How is it possible to combine the roadmapping methodology with the creation of structural openness, an anticipatory agency,
openness towards future possibilities Drafting novel concepts Capacities for resilience Identifying wild cards Focusses primarily on vision building:
and identifying novel technological concepts, such as a virtual power plant and the‘black box'of a building. The project also operated in the social/actor space.
1) measuring and enhancing productivity,(2) innovative service concepts,(3) learning and education, and (4) internationnality Each of the groups made their own thematic roadmaps.
1) measuring and enhancing productivity,(2) innovative service concepts,(3) learning and education, and (4) internationality Opening the field towards the efficient use of ICTS Fostering abilities to build long-lasting partnerships with the clients Using prospective argumentatiio to endorse the strategic aims From intense price competittio
1) measuring and enhancing productivity,(2) innovative service concepts,(3) learning and education, and (4) internationality Forming visionary ideas about the systemic
especially through novel technology and services concepts Endorsing education and international influences in the field Making visionary timelines for the adoption of new solutions Envisioning development projects based on the results this aspired culture.
Examples of these new service concepts are, for example, different kinds of circumstance services, such as building in stable and dry conditions,
In addition, the field of construction machinery should actively endorse a kind of horizontal anticipatory agency, for example, through novel technology and services concepts,
Concept, development and application. Technovation 26, no. 3: 336 44. Phaal, R, . and G. Muller. 2009.
In our paper, the concept of TDS recognises the inherent uncertainties of innovation pathways. Ezra (1975) offered a TDS to help explain why solar energy innovation in residential housing applications was not notably successful.
The 9th Foresight exercise was conducted under the concept of contributing to the future society. The points of the exercise were diversified interdisciplinary
Research limitations/implications The concept of grand challenges is still relatively new. Practical implications Not all research and innovation priorities are linked to grand challenges.
the concept of‘‘grand challenges''or‘‘grand societal challenges''.''Foresight has long been used for social purposes.
it was put forward that Ireland could pilot new approaches for dealing with challenging areas such as energy and healthcare. 5. Conclusions With the increasing recognition of the concept of grand challenges over recent years,
Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham. Corresponding author Anna Sokolova can be contacted at: avsokolova@hse. ru VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 53 To purchase reprints of this article please e-mail:
and used as sources for future technology themes analysis. A standard mapping taxonomy based on international patent classification system was used to map out the technology concept described in these future technology themes.
The main difference between patent documents and Delphi topics lies in the fact that a patent describes in longer text an invention that has been proved of concept and for
The technology concept in future technology themes is mapped by the classification framework and the interaction between technologies is identified through a causal effect analysis. Similarities
from a resource-based strategic concept, this classification framework can provide a bridge to link the future technology themes with current technology performance such as patent productivity or quality,
Hax, A. and Majluf, N. 1996), The Strategy Concept and Process: A Pragmatic Approach, Prentice hall, London.
Schmoch, U. 2008),‘Concept of a technology classification for country comparisons'',Final Report to the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation research, Karlsruhe
FTA was used to create visionary concepts and to promote co-operation between various actors. In Germany, FTA was used mainly to shape
or, ensuring that concepts and definitions are understood well and translated between communities. Increasing trust between communities can also be pursued, from a strictly methodological perspective,
Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.17 A. Havas, D. Schartinger, M. Weber, The impact of foresight on innovation policy-making:
The Handbook of Technology foresight, Concepts and Practicesedward Elgar, UK, 2008.37 C. S. Curran, J. Leker, Patent indicators for monitoring convergence examples from NFF and ICT, Technol.
The concept of the technology life cycle (TLC) was presented by Arthur 9 to measure technological changes. It includes two dimensions the competitive impact and integration in products or process and four stages.
and finally we compare the indicator features in training technologies with the indicator values in an object technology Fig. 1. The S-curve concept of technology life cycle. 399 L. Gao et al./
We developed the questionnaires based on the concept of TLC given by Arthur D. Little 9. Ten experts in CRT,
and the integration of the field discussed in the above referred paper 1 (not to mention the umbrella concept of TFA recently adopted!).
It is said usually that some biological evolution-related concepts like mutation, selection, adaptation, life cycle, survival of the fittest, etc.
in terms of concepts grounded in very basic physical and social perceptions. The more complex and intangible the system
The development of a working ETTC bears the correct understanding of three difficult-to-define concepts,
An evolutionary approach within the framework of danthropology of techniquet is a necessary step to grasp adequately these concepts.
and not necessarily motivated by evolutionary concepts, the bio-mathematicians Vito Volterra and Alfred Lotka popularized a set of differential equations to describe the growth of population levels,
To begin with it should be stand out that the notion of innovation belongs itself to that collection of fuzzy concepts,
In my view what is missing is a bridge linking evolutionary concepts in biology to technological progress,
demotion and rise of evolutionary concepts in economics It is well known the fact that the social sciences after experiencing an initial thrust from evolutionary concepts at the turn of 19th to 20th centuries have insisted historically in ignoring Darwinian ideas.
and by liberally using the concept of inherited habits gave birth to the most controversial scientific debacle that lasted for over a century.
's natural selection threw new light on the evolutionary concept of human cultural development. He proposed the natural selection of hypotheses,
In my view Campbell's concept of vicarious forces provide the suitable mechanism to ensure that cultural evolution does favor the fitness of our genes,
the persistent opposition of mainstream economics to Darwinian concepts as applied to socioeconnomi systems, mainly caused by misinformation and non-acquaintance with the basic assumptions of Universal Darwinism;
The approach starts from a conceptualization of the decision problem and the identification of the key uncertainties.
it is still a developing concept, and requires the further development of specific tools and methods for its operationalization 7. More specifically,
That is, adaptive policy-making needs to move from being a high level concept captured in a flowchart,
1) the conceptualization of the problem,(2) the identification of uncertainties (and certainties), and (3) the development of an ensemble of models that allows generating many plausible scenarios.
The traditional concepts and models of innovation are not always adequate to embrace the complexity for addressing the grand challenges 10,15.
These concepts and paradigms are used then to analyze the selected scenario case studies. For example, we look how the applied
We use the word practice to describe the implementation or execution of a concept, plan, methodology or theory.
and adapting our underlying theoretical premises. 3. Concepts of innovation, futures thinking and scenarios 3. 1. Innovation systems Innovation involves the application of new ideas
The concept of national innovation systems is rooted in evolutionary economic theorizing on socio-technical change 33 35.
/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 432 443 The concept of the multiple-axes method is based on one of the approaches used by Pierre Wack 52.
The concept of roadmapping has its roots in science and technology planning 55. A science or technology roadmap is like a highway roadmap that describes how one might proceed from a starting point to a final destination expressed as a vision.
This links well with the concept of risk-society 69 and risk management. Our analysis suggests that this can be contributed partly to the selected process design for developing the scenarios.
The concept of change is an implicit part of the scenarios developed in backcasting from principles
Concepts and Practice, Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltenham, UK, 2008.60 T. Webler, D. Levine, H. Rakel, D. Renn, A novel approach to reducing uncertainty the group
In the US, FTA has been used to create visionary concepts and to promote cooperation between and among agencies, departments of the federal government, academia, and stakeholders.
where FTA was used to create visionary concepts and to promote cooperation between and among agencies, departments of the federal government, academia,
and presenting concepts of how to establish nanotechnology as a general-purpose technology in the next decade,
and on concepts to involve and mobilize an increasing variety of stakeholders in the future. The report emphasized the concept of anticipatory governance of nanotechnology
that was introduced by social scientists at the Center for Nanotechnology in Society at Arizona State university. The concept aims at having participatory FTA be taken up into ongoing sociotechnical processes to shape their eventual outcomes at all levels including to the point of the lab 43.
Another concept, highlighted in the report is real-time technology assessment, a research program to integrate natural science and engineering investigations with social science and policy research from the outset 44.
This concept also stems from the NNI6 and became a part of the vision for 2020.
Both concepts rely on experiences derived from participatory activities. The vision report states that during the next decade
application-driven research will produce new scientific discoveries and economic optimization leading to new technologies and industries.
The core concept for the future development is innovative and responsible governance of nanotechnology 45, a concept rooted in 5 The NNI itself is not a funding program.
The funding is provided through the NNI member agencies. 6 The Center for Nanotechnology in Society at Arizona State (CNS-ASU) is funded by the NSF. 447 P. Schaper-Rinkel/Technological forecasting
A broader concept of responsible development of nanotechnology in general was developed not (only the identification of risks for safe and responsible handling) 52.
A concept for future governance of nanotechnology is also not part of the action plan. The work of the Nanokommission is mentioned
Participatory processes as well as different concepts of responsible research and innovation in nanotechnology were triggered by global debates on the risks of nanotechnology. 4. 2. International screening
The early study exercises provided justification for a policy that was under consideration (symbolic function) and the results lead to policy conceptualization,
but it remains unclear how the highly ambitious concept will be implemented and what will happen if stakeholders hold opposing positions and claims, for example with regard to risk governance.
and were used also for policy conceptualization, design and implementation (informing policy and supporting policy definition). Unlike in the US, the governance network in Germany is centralized around one ministry (the BMBF) lacking a continuously working governance structure to bring together the variety of actors involved in nano-related innovation processes.
In the US the new vision for 2020 represents such a concept, while in Germany many different agendas were developed in parallel without a common strategy.
The updated nanotechnology vision in the US 3 is envisioning the involvement of a broader range of experts and stakeholders and addresses societal challenges through a sophisticated concept of future nanotechnology governance.
Concepts and Practice, 2008, pp. 154 169.33 K. Cuhls, From forecasting to foresight processes new participative foresight activities in Germany, J. Forecast. 22 (2003) 93 111.34
and systemic eco-innovation 8. All these concepts are calling for transformative visions, scenarios and roadmaps challenging today's paradigms and basic assumptions on system dynamics.
and matching processwhere interaction is the critical element 9. Rothwell's fifth-generation innovation concept describes innovation as amulti-actor processwhich requires intensive interaction at intra-and inter-firm
Nowadays new innovation concepts are being suggested from a number of different directions. Increasingly, phenomena like social innovation, service innovation, low-tech innovation
the methodological concept of INFU was tailored to capture systemic and structural transformation. In Section 2 we outline the methodological framework of the INFU foresight exercise
The INFU project followed a similar approach by combining the inductive scenario building concept with a weak signal scanning activity.
The assessment of dimensions of change is similar to the concept of alternative logics, which has been proved to be a robust and resilient approach to develop alternative scenarios 32, p. 111.
By combining this concept with the two features described above, the 464 E. Schirrmeister, P. Warnke/Technological forecasting & Social Change 80 (2013) 453 466 dominance of the macro-level and the influence of today's perception of consistency were reduced to give room for creative assessment of structural transformation.
Some papers proceed by integrating insights and concepts from other disciplines such as sociology, design and innovation management while others mainly draw on empirical analysis and established FTA theory.
De Moor et al. develop the concept of‘‘Innovation Foresight ''(IF) as an approach for bringing the future into innovation processes.
Their arguments and analyses bring together theoretical concepts from innovation studies, innovation management and foresight. They use an analytical framework that they call the‘‘Cyclic Innovation Model (CIM)''to make the case for the convergent development of innovation
and concepts such as adaptive foresight 5 and systemic foresight 6 have been suggested for the development of more tailored foresight processes.
In a discussion of the use of the concept of systems thinking in foresight, Saritas distinguishes between external and internal context 6. The external context is the set of STEEPV factors (Social, Technological, Economical, Environment, Political
This paper starts with the somewhat ambiguous concepts of national political tradition and national governance culture as decisive contexts for analysing
The paper argues that this concept provides a more useful approach to the decisive context of foresight than the size or regional affiliation of a country.
The concept of‘rulers'or powers include different types of authorities and their institutions, such as not only government but also influential stakeholder groupings and experts.
To qualify the concept of national governance culture, we have suggested drawing on the classical work of Geert Hofstede.
In particular, two dimensions of Hofstede's concept have implications for the way in which institutions and organisations are built and for management and planning.
In this paper the concept has successfully been applied for analysing recent foresight in Denmark. The Danish negotiation culture
The consideration of‘glocal'foresight impacts is close to the concept of‘adaptive foresight coined by Weber 22,
The first paper from Eriksson and Weber, presents the methodological concept of Adaptive foresight. This concept was developed by using elements from adaptive strategic planning
in order to address shortcomings of more Conventional foresight and to ensure a better link between Foresight and its impact on decision-making processes.
The concept is based on the tradition of regulatory impact assessments and foresight exercises. Regulatory foresight is conceived as strategic activity undertaken by governments and policy-makers responsible for regulatory regimes to shape
Nonetheless, there was a push to extend concepts and theoretical insights from these areas to a larger variety of social sciences and humanities disciplines, such as epistemology, political science, sociology, economics
and introduces the concept of‘‘Innovation Foresight''(IF) in this respect. IF represents an approach for bringing the future into holistic innovation processes, in
Although the principles underlying the open innovation concept have been subjected to critical analyses, which designated it as‘old wine in new bottles'2,
and discusses the concept of‘‘Innovation Foresight''(IF) 11 in this respect. It is argued that IF could serve as an interactive,
in the next section, the Innovation Foresight concept is introduced and contextualised. Thereupon, the methodological setup and results from two empirical studies in which current and future users were involved closely in the exploration,
A number of concepts and approaches were proposed, such as Constructive technology assessment (CTA), Participatory Design and Participatory Innovation 13,14.
the concept of Innovation Foresight (IF) 11 has been introduced as an interactive, participatory and forward-looking way to engage in the‘social shaping of technology'.
, for concept testing, preparing for market introduction, assessment of adoption potential. Secondly, this study was part of a larger research project
the i-Magine concept was explored. A short video and storyboard with text and pictures visualised a specific multitasking problem
These aspects were translated in concepts, which were explored further in the cultural probing. 3. 2. 2. 2. Phase 2. Fig. 2 provides a schematic overview of the different personas that were developed in phase 2, based on the gathered data on current
and the Living Lab concept which was mentioned already in 11. Living Labs 32 are systemic policy instruments that facilitate user-driven and social innovation in a natural, more ecologically valid research context, reflecting real life situations and conditions.
a source of novel product concepts, Management Science 32 (1986) 791 805.24 B. Katrien, S. Dimitri, M. Lieven De, Adoption versus use diffusion
itself inspired by the concept of learning as discussed by Argyris and Scho n 34.
new approaches to governance, Futures 43 (2011) 279 291.42 K. Koschatzky, Foresight as a governance concept at the interface between global challenges and regional innovation potentials, European Planning
. Amanatidou, M. Butter, V. Carabias, T. Ko nno la, M. Leis, O. Saritas, P. Schaper-Rinkel, V. van-Rik, On concepts
In the next section the concept of networked foresight is approached in two ways: first, by investigating the relationship and analogies of innovation management and futures research;
This is followed by the description of the three cases according to the CIM concepts. Special emphasis therein is placed on foresight activities.
The close link between innovation and futures research tempts analogies to be drawn between the historical developments of both concepts as illustrated in Table 1
A preceding concept to open innovation that takes a corporate perspective is absorptive capacity. This initially analyzed the‘‘ability of firms to recognize the value of new information
That is, the cases are translated into the concepts of the CIM and their relationship. For instance the CIM states that its elements should be related to each other.
Also, the CIM requires every concept to be made explicit, i e.,, if a network does not have an explicit and formal process model,
or formalized networked foresight concepts or processes. Also, that it might be that components of the CIM are linked not to each other in a cyclical way.
In one case the different concepts might be present but not explicitly formalized, and in another the concepts might indeed be present
and formalized but not sufficiently related to each other. In this article the network orientation of foresight is described and analyzed,
and Gemu nden 5. Foresight role Impact Initiator role Identify new needs Identify emerging technologies Identify competitors'concepts early Strategist role Assess
plans and evaluates new business modeling concepts Singular activity 2. 6 Business case analysis Provide revenue,
and deployment of business modeling concepts in yet underexplored business fields Project, singular activity 3. 6 Technology transfer program Increases the transfer activities from academia to business by detecting, stimulating
and to a lesser degree competitors'concepts at an early stage (initiator role of foresight). Several instruments consolidate opinions
Concepts and Practices, L Georghiou, J C Harper, M Keenan, I Miles and R Popper (eds.),
Most of the broader governmental horizon scans were initiated by ministries of defence or their agencies (Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centrre 2006;
a network of Forsociiet partners was established including some externna organisations that had shown interest in the concept of government-initiated horizon scanning.
Development, Concepts and Doctrine Centre (DCDC) 2006. The DCDC's Global Strategic Trends Study, 2007 2036, third editiion Swindon, UK:
the relevance of the current IPR concept under changing conditions, new ways to protect IPR
and the rationale for foresight but little about the factors that lead to foresight success. As will be reported later in this paper, even the concept of
This concept of direct impact was identified also by Van der meulen et al. 2003): ) In comparison to futures studies and forecastinng the literature on foresight has paid little attenntio to its actual strategic value.
Cross-disciplinary and‘converging'technologies Recently the concept of cross-disciplinarity, that furthhe develops into‘converging technologies'has emerged in the US and in Europe.
'This workshop proposed the concept of NBIC and discussse possible applications to human health and performance.
In Europe the concept of NBIC was studied by A high-Level Expert Group which produced a report (Nordmann,
and emerging infectious diseases in Asia-pacific Science and Public policy February 2010 43 The concept has been extended in the European union's Seventh Framework Program to the possibiliitie at the interface of micro nano systems and the living world.
In the present study we have applied the concept of converging technologiies particularly the pragmatic European definition,
the concept of smarter informmatio collection and management is an integrra part of adoption of new processes and tools.
This project is a contribution to the better understanndin of the provision of accelerated technologicca responses to combating EID and biosecurity in the APEC region and of the role of S&t in providiin those responses through the concept of convergiin technologies.
EID Concept Paper. Paper presented at the 29th Meeting of APEC Industrial Science & Technology Working group (ISTWG), Singapore.
which the concept of‘interpretative flexibility'is used to refer to the differences between individuals and social groups when it comes to giving meaning to technological development (Haddon et al.,
In this respect it is relevant to mention the gap betwwee Qoe and Qos, two important concepts in the field of ICT development.
In the second stage (concept development and evaluatioon) a selection of mobile applications was studied by interdisciplinary research teams in a horizontal layer
and find it difficult to empathize with other users'lifestyyles e g. a 25-year-old reflects only on his daily Innovation-development process Prior-to-launch Post-launch R&d Opportunity identification Concept design Concept development
Concept evaluation Next, all the applications considered in the first phase were transformed into workable paper conceept
For this concept evaluation phase, we conducted a major survey among the i-City panel (n=420.
The advantage of such an evaluation is the panel's familiarity with mobile city concepts and experience with actual working applicatiions In total,
Drawiin on results selected from three distinct points of user involvement in the process of developing new products (i e. opportunity identification, concept evaluation and test market),
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