data, and tools Two different types of visualizations, each designed to provide different types of information,
a visualization tool that enables interactive navigation and query of an abstract information space. Link analysis maps were generated using Clearresearch,
With the Sandia-specific and additional DOE data, this set consisted of 5112 records. 3. 2. Similarity calculation LSA is a technique based on the vector space model that has found recent application in information retrieval.
and analysis. Vxinsight is a tool that allows visualization and navigation of an abstract information space,
During our meeting with the CIS area leader, we first K. W. Boyack, N. Rahal/Technological forecasting & Social Change 72 (2005) 1122 1136 1126 gathered information
However, specific information indicating the relationships between technology and IA and the explicit nature of the relationships between the technologies is hidden still.
This analysis added value in that the IA leads obtained information that assisted them in the evaluation and redirection of their R&d activities.
The visualization contained very detailed (and thus proprietary) information, and is shown not here. The result of the visualization pointed to specific technological efforts within an IA that could be combined to create a larger effort that could in turn attract future funding outside of the LDRD program.
and new ideas based on the information and patterns seen there. Fig. 6 shows the overall scatterplot comprising investment in LDRD by all of the U s. DOE's laboratories.
We have learned that it is important not to saturate the IA leads with the information from these analyses,
but rather to present some information, and then allow them to further explore the information on their own.
It is only as those with funding authority internalizing the results of such analyses, integrating them into their mental models,
In the near future, we plan to expand our scope to include not only the LDRD information from DOE laboratories,
Technol. 53 (9)( 2002) 764 774.6 J. Dowling, Information retrieval using latent semantic indexing and a semi-discrete matrix decomposition, Unpublished Bachelor's thesis
, Monash University, 2002.7 T. G. Kolda, D. P. O'Leary, A semidiscrete matrix decomposition for latent semantic indexing in information retrieval, ACM Trans.
Kevin W. Boyack is a Principal Member of Technical Staff (PMTS) in the Computation, Computers, Information,
Mortimer House, 37-41 Mortimer Street, London W1t 3jh, UK Technology analysis & Strategic management Publication details, including instructions for authors and subscription information:
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and knowledge spaces 825 information and communication technology (ICT), differs vastly from the long term of a highly inert field, such as transportation infrastructure.
for example, through the application of life cycle analysis. The second aspect was to open the field towards more efficient use of ICTS in the processes, such as solutions for distance-based monitoring, the use of building information models,
and information about the location of the machinery. In order to achieve these aims, a structural openness for the adoption of new practices should be fostered.
and information security), on the layer of four Nordic countries (Finland, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark) and on the layer of the Nordic region as a strategic entirety.
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and should be verified independently with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall not be liable for any losses
Rather, this method gathers information pursuant to the various steps, quite willing to revisit the earlier steps as one learns more about the emerging technology
eliciting information on stakeholders and potential applications from text mining (Steps D and E; and consolidating empirical
Based on factor analysis, these are grouped into macrodisciipline (the labels shown in Figure 4). For more information,
Gratzel and colleagues continue to lead the field. 5. Table 2 does not include the full updated information through 2009 and 2010.
methods to get information for discussion on strategies of sustainable growth through science and technology. It seeks to address the combination of outputs in an objective manner to identify expected areas of future innovation toward the desired future as well as related areas that are supposed to play a key part.
Information from the Delphi method and scenario is converged using text mining to position scientific and technological areas in a big picture.
It suggests the potential of combining outputs by capitalizing on the full value of the information obtained.
and information from other sources is expected to be interpreted (Mietzner and Reger, 2005). The Delphi method is regarded as one of the useful information sources for scenario (Loveridge, 1999.
what cooperation and convergence among scientific and technological areas will be required to address four challenges by combining information to draw up the whole picture of future science
All the information from scenario building is dependent on each theme. Events that may have implicit impact and base or general-purpose technologies tend to have little chance of being mentioned. 3. 2 Procedure of combination Text mining is employed to combine information from two sources, i e.
Delphi and the scenarios by group work. The keywords that frequently appear in and are characteristic to each scenario were extracted.
Information on key areas from the Delphi survey is added to the map to discuss the overall view of science
''3.‘‘Health information infrastructure for eliminating disparities'';''4.‘‘Stable supply of food'';''and 5.‘‘Safely securing fossil and mineral resources''.
The‘‘Socialization of information''area in the category of‘‘Others''gained an especially high expectation,
-B New principle for information and communication 05-G Space technologies (including space medicine) 09-A Base materials for nanotechnologyb 09-B Output (device, systemization and applied
They provided information about scientific and technological possibilities and promoting factors toward specific social goals as well as the potential of each local region.
using information from Delphi and scenario to get a whole picture of science and technology toward the desired future.
Combination of information obtained from studies conducted independently under a common framework could be regarded as an acceptable approach to take every advantage of method employed
Research policy makers need specific information and insight on how the structured view of the future provided by foresight affects their strategic planning.
but also specific information on how this view affects their strategic planning. The key challenge is that research policy makers are not a homogeneous group, even within a single institution,
Transparent information and communication is also crucial and requires managing content and channels while taking into consideration the needs of various stakeholder groups.
The experts here are not necessarily stakeholders in the strategic dialogue but primarily sources of information.
The information obtained is used to generate initial hypotheses. 4. 4 Step 4: Desk research and‘‘straw man''structure Issues that were raised
This information is not always readily available given the wide range of possible funding bodies as well as the fact that the subject of the strategic dialogue is likely to be novel
Expansion towards external stakeholders Based on the collected information from various sources the issues to be addressed in the further course of the process can be expressed with greater precision.
VOL. 15 NO. 1 2013 jforesight jpage 25 For the BMBF, a wealth of structured information has been generated that allows formulating a future vision and recommendations for research policy initiatives,
Additional information concerning assessing the required resources (human, financial, technological, etc. and a description of specific innovation projects was required for policy decision-making.
B Information and Telecommunication systems; B Industry of Nanosystems and Materials; B Living Systems; B Medicine and Health;
B Information and Telecommunication systems; B Living Systems; B Industry of Nanosystems; B Transportation and Aerospace Systems;
The project covered a wide range of information, analytical and expert studies (see Figure 2). More than 100 experts from leading research centres
this allowed policy makers to derive a wide range of an information, for example: B key areas to strengthen positions of Russian producers in global markets on the basis of technological advantages;
and innovation policy it is necessary to have more detailed and precise information about resource requirements, the evaluation of emerging markets,
promising innovation projects and other information required for policy decision-making. These tasks were solved in the FS2 framework.
The study significantly extended the information basis for policy-making, which however could not be used directly in decision-making.
Te-Yi Chan and Cheng-Hua Ien are based in the Trend Analysis Division, Science and Technology policy Research and Information Center (STPI), National Applied research Laboratories (NARL), Taipei
and analyze public information about competitors and use it to make decisions. The context and importance of competitive intelligence is based partly on the resource-based theory,
business sensitive information on external scientific or technological threats, opportunities, or developments that have the potential to affect a company's competitive situation.
as expert opinions are the only source of information available. Meanwhile, the communication effect of Delphi studies and the value of the process are acknowledged also. 2. 2 Basic information for the scanned Delphi topics The Delphi topics used for sustainable energy are chosen from foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China.
Table I summarizes the basic information for the scanned foresight reports and details for their foresight activities.
By proper selection of sustainable energy related topics, the Delphi topics were extracted first based upon their original category in the foresight reports.
I Basic information for scanned foresight reports from Japan, South korea and China Japan South korea China Report Title The 8th Science and Technology foresight Survey Delphi Analysis Prospect of future society
because they include technical and application/commercial information. Patents are oriented towards the legal protection of technologies
To get more information on technology interaction from the Delphi topic descriptions, especially for the identification of technology linkages or causal effects,
PAGE 72 jforesight jvol. 15 NO. 1 2013 About the authors Hai-Chen Lin is now an Associate Researcher at Science and Technology policy Research and Information Center (STPI),
He is now an Associate Researcher at Science and Technology policy Research and Information Center (STPI),
She is now an Associate Researcher at Science and Technology policy Research and Information Center (STPI),
The information, knowledge and interpretation and resultant subjective opinion of FTA participants are decisive when dealing with grand challenges 3. Thus,
and combining different types of information and methods can better support policy-makers since societal challenges and complex interrelated systems require a more holistic and systemic understanding of situations.
when consisting of numerical information and a methodology as quantitative when applying statistical/mathematical tools.
when consisting of non-numerical information (such as text, images, and sounds) and a methodology as qualitative when not relying on statistical/Technological forecasting
and combining different types of information and methods can only but better support policy-makers in their job.
A wide variety of information about the past and the present can contribute to this
For instance, quantitative analysis of this kind offers valuable information for the development of S&t Delphi survey topics,
new technologies such as web 2. 0 can be used by FTA to streamline operations by increasing interactive participation of stakeholders, speeding-up the provision of information and feedbacks and integrating data of different sorts (pictures
but rather in their ability to structure thinking on the basis of the information available.
which aim at eliciting information on the hypothetical dynamics of future preferences (individual and collective).
The appraisal of the expected future performance (and the ranking) of alternative technological options therefore explicitly incorporates information that inherently reflects the subjectivity of social players,
In the longer term, the conditions must be created (through education, information sharing, cultural dialogue) for a more integrated community of FTA EXPERTS
But the patent information in the early years is unavailable (patent data in DII covers 1963 to the present.
ð14þ Then the label information of bk is considered identical to that of aj0, namely lbk laj0.
In order to obtain all label information for NBS, we have to calculate the minimum distance between each test point
and all the training points and then obtain all the label information of bk, that is the TLC stage information of NBS. 3. Results and implications for management Table 5 shows the label results for each test point of NBS.
The label information of the first 12 test points (1985 1996) of NBS can be matched with that in the emerging stage of TFT-LCD
and the label information of the second 12 test points (1997 2008) of NBS can be matched with that in the growth stage of TFT-LCD.
We separately showed our results to two NBS experts who are working for Georgia Institute of technology.
and the manifold convergence of information and molecular technologies that are contributing enormously to new insights in simulation methods and evolutionary programming.
which follows the necessity of acknowledging the law-like aspect underlying all growth phenomena in the living (social as well) realm, mainly related to the mechanism of information transmission and increase in system's complexity.
From my point of view the common denominator lies in the basic mechanism of information transmission (and also of information growth,
That is, how do technological units (whatever they may be) carry their information forward through time? 3 Are technological innovations indeed teleological or Lamarckian in nature or not?
the common denominator to all growth and diffusion phenomena in the living world is the transmission of information,
and policy-making 1 5. The term‘model'refers here to a representation of the most crucial aspects of a system of interest for extracting usable information 6. The term‘decision-making'is used here for the act or process of making strategies or conscious decisions
Signposts specify information that should be tracked in order to determine whether the policy is progressing toward success. Critical values of signpost variables (triggers) are chosen,
when relevant information exists that can be exploited by building models, but where this information does not allow specifying a single model that accurately describes system behavior.
In this circumstance models can be constructed that are consistent with the available information, but such models are not unique.
the process of exploiting the information contained in such a set through a large number of computational experiments,
EMA is first and foremost an alternative way of using the available models, knowledge, data, and information.
That is, partial information can inform policymaking or planning even when prediction and optimization are not possible by using the available partial information in a systematic and transparent way.
Many well-established techniques, such as Monte carlo sampling, factorial methods, and optimization techniques, can be usefully
and different sources and types of information and data. EMA offers practitioners a model-based method for handling such situations.
for otherwise, the problem of incompletely taking into account uncertainty is being replaced by an information overload problem.
That is, the systematic exploration of a wide variety of uncertainties produces large datasets that need to be analyzed further using machine learning or data mining techniques in order to extract decision relevant information from it.
potentially resulting in an information overload. The effective analysis, visualization, and communication of EMA insights are thus of crucial importance for its successful real world application.
Policy Manag. 10 (2010) 299 315.9 Y. Ben-Haim, Information-Gap Decision theory: Decisions under Severe Uncertainty, 2nd ed. Wiley, New york, 2006.10 E. A. Erikson, K. M. Weber, Adaptive foresight:
the boundaries between approaches have become increasingly blurred by techniques that make use of both kinds of methods and information 51.
feedback of individual contributions of information and knowledge; an assessment of the group judgment or view;
whereas roadmapping provides a framework for condensing all information in one map and timeframe revealing windows of opportunity thus linking decision-making with future scenarios.
This will provide essential information about the robustness of the innovation potential. The 3rd SCAR foresight exercise (see Appendix 1) also falls into this group with its focus on research priorities
For each of the modes of future thinking, we also include information on the proposed effects on
and Russia were used to gather additional information for worldwide studies in the field of nanostructure science and technologies 37.
to deliver a sound and broad information basis for funding decisions in these research fields and to prepare these issues for funding activities 48.
These reports provided information on the technology field or sub-field, documenting its potential prospects from the perspective of various sectors of industry,
One of the recommendations published in the Nanokommission's final report in 2011 is that the German federal government should establish a national cross-departmental internet platform providing information on developments and activities in the field of nanotechnologies 51.
and Russia to gather additional information on activities in those countries 5. In Germany, the report on the first forecast activities also documented international activities,
The NNI's early nanotechnology assessment studies indicated to the public that policy was based on scientific knowledge information
derived from diverse signals of change from various sources of information. For each cluster, a fictive vision was developed by the project consortium by way of amplification using the three principles Transfer, Generalisation,
By using visual rather than textual information it was aimed to mobilise tacit knowledge and intuition and partly transcend established pathways of reasoning.
In order to test the approach (only very short textual information) respondents were asked to assess the clarity of the visions in the INFU online survey.
These results show that by using weak signals from diverse sources of information it was possible to generate visions covering a wide range of different perspectives.
The interviews revealed that for some visions the visual information was interpreted in a slightly different way by the diverse experts.
For one vision the visual information was connected to a specific association leading to a strong emphasis on one specific aspect of the vision.
For this vision the visual information combined with the short textual information was not sufficient to communicate the vision adequately to the experts.
In addition this classification provided information about the convergence and divergence of the visions and fostered the search for specifications of dimension of change not covered in the first draft.
but also allowed the spreading of information, the extension of the expert network and the integration of very diverse perspectives.
Similar to approaches of participatory design 33 the story-scripts allowed peoplewith different backgrounds to imagine a situation in the future without comprehensive textual information.
Horizon scanning experiences are converging on the need for holistic rather than atomistic information. There is a need to assembling plausible narratives,
Section 3 contains background information on the Danish economy and culture including (a) the Danish position between liberal and coordinated market economies,
Empirically, this section is based on publicly available reports and internet information from relevant governmental bodies (ministries and agencies.
or process information, based on four abilities: evidence, expertise, interaction and creativity, or combinations of these abilities.
this section contains background information for understanding the use of governmental foresight and long range planning.
The OECD report merely served as background information or as a kind of check list 33.
The available material contains no information on why this was the case. The expert panel structured the material into 42 proposals for strategic research themes.
with the aim of gathering actual information to feed the scenario analysis, and to include representative and diverse perspectives.
Some policy-makers found it difficult to assess the quality of the sources of information regarding future developments.
Especially when policy-makers are confronted with various sources of information that are contradictory in terms of the future developments they describe,
Generally speaking, civil servants at the national level find it easier to gain access to high quality information
and determine the quality of the information, possibly because they are involved more in strategic issues than in operational issues in comparison to local civil servants.
In these cases, contradictory information may indeed emerge as a consequence of different assumptions across models.
including those in the initial phase of information collection, is paramount to yield both ownership and use of results.
and is more effective than collecting information from industry representatives by other means. Therefore, the methodology set up (Fig. 2) for the IMS2020 foresight process was defined in a way that would ensure the highest relevance to inputs coming from the industrial community.
Workshops with industry representatives were shaped in a way that spaces for mutual learning rather than the simple exchange of information would take place.
The first online survey was designed also to collect information that would be helpful for understanding both future developments
since mainly on the impacts of information and communication technologies. Attachment to the Secretariat of the German Bundestag's Enquete Commission on Technology assessment prior to the creation of the German Parliament's Office of Technology assessment (TAB),
Led several ITAS projects on information and communication technologies, convergence of nano, bio, info and cogno technologies and on a European Infrastructure for Technology assessment.
user profiles and trends were explored in order to collect information and intelligence. This desk research was combined with an expert consultation round (N=10) and a limited number of user interviews.
3. 2. 1. 2. Phase 2. The aim of this phase was to identify personas based on the gathered information on current usage patterns and viewer profiles.
concrete representations of target users'that are used for conveying information about a (future) user population in product design and innovation processes 27.
The cultural probing method allows researchers to gather subjective information from the users in an everyday context.
which different tools were used for collecting information and for projecting the personas in the future as a way to explore,
In both studies, information and intelligence concerning real experiences, practices and visions from a user perspective served as starting points.
A Qualitative Study on the Domestication of Interactive Digital Television in Flanders,(Unpublished doctoral thesis), Vrije Universiteit Brussel, 2011.32 A. Følstad, Living Labs for Innovation and Development of Information
because the information collected about the firm and its environment will serve as input for a continuous feedback related to its mission, values and politics.
C. Cagnin/Futures 59 (2014) 50 61 52 into account the availability and facility to access information,
b) transparency and access to information generated by their BSC to understand the problems each organisation faces
The organisations facilitated access to information through meetings between managers and the staff responsible for implementing the proposed system.
These served to exchange information and experiences as well as obtain consensus on the changes needed in their existing BSC,
P. Schwartz, Plotting Your Scenarios, Global Business Network (GBN), San francisco, 2004.28 C. W. Choo, Environmental scanning as information seeking and organizational learning, Information Research 7
An information Architecture to Enable Business Sustainability,(Phd thesis), University of Manchester, Manchester, UK, 2005.46 M. Boden, C. Cagnin, V. Carabias, K. Haegeman, T. Konnola, Facing the Future:
This initially analyzed the‘‘ability of firms to recognize the value of new information assimilate it and apply it to commercial ends''26.
and information in the‘innovation arena'and (2) that every well-functioning innovation process should be based on one or more images of the future 47,48.
EICT In 2004, the five German founding partners of the European Center for Information and Communication Technologies (EICT) Deutsche telekom AG (DTAG), Daimler AG (DAG), Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft
zur Fo rderung der angewandten Forschung e. V. Fhg), Technische Universita t Berlin (TUB) and Siemens AG (SAG) decided to pool their research and development activities in the area of information
Accordingly, EICT aims at facilitating open innovation by providing a setting that is conducive to the flow of information between industry and research in information and communication technologies (ICT),
and a legal framework for the free flow of information is created. Specifically, the partners are supported at several stages of the Table 3 Networked foresight activities in Rijkswaterstaat.
At the end of 2009, the first three KICS in the areas of climate change (Climate KIC), energy (KIC Innoenergy) and Information and Communication Technologies (EIT ICT Labs;
the re-integration of information (outside-in) into the organization is apparently quite a challenge. In Table 5 the foresight activities are summarized briefly
and business opportunities on a yearly basis and provides the means to explore the field further Program 3. 9 Best-practice benchmarking Collects information about best practices in collaborative R&d,
therein pooling the knowledge and information of several partners. Thus, it is expected that the outcome of foresight is enhanced due to the partner network of EICT.
Within the projects EICT's network is leveraged for information collection and knowledge exchange. 2. Beneficiaries of networked foresight activities are the network partners within the predefined project settings. 3. For developing the process model,
some partners anticipate that others withhold information especially information that is valued as important within the industrial partner organizations.
five leverage additional information from outside organizations and one seeks to integrate end-users As well as can be expected,
Some industry partners hesitated to disclose the use of information within their affiliation, especially concerning strategy development and core business.
Others revealed that they are unsure to this moment how to effectively reintegrate information from the network in internal processes (outside-in.
Finally, several instruments provide information to challenge basic assumptions and existing R&d projects, and to scan for disruptions (opponent role of foresight).
However, efficient processes to benefit from the information within the partner organizations remain unclear. Table 7 The scope of the foresight activities in the EICT and their matching to the roles of foresight according to Rohrbeck & Gemu nden 5. No.
On first sight it appears that strategic information is the focus of the activities as well. However especially the two aspects‘‘consolidation of opinions''and the‘‘identification of new business models''are exploited within these strategic activities.
The networks can benefit from networked foresight especially due to its varying perspectives, diverse backgrounds of the involved people and broad information base.
and utilize the information that its partners contribute. Furthermore, they should initiate instruments to help the networks'partners reintegrate the results into their organization.
2. In all three cases the network partners contribute information to the foresight activities independently from further use therein (inside-out.
Additionally, foresight activities in the WINN and EIT ICT Labs cases are used to provide information for guiding,
and inside-out) information flow from the perspective of the partners it is an inside-out information flow. 6. Conclusions This paper aimed at exploring futures research in innovation networks by applying the Cyclic Innovation Model as analytical framework to three cases
the opposition role of foresight is strengthened in the large network of the EIT ICT Labs. This appears to be explicable with the inevitably added new perspectives and consolidation of unconnected information through the network.
Information Knowledge Systems Management 5 (2005) 245 259.36 S. Ahn, A new program in cooperative research between academia and industry in Korea involving Centers of Excellence, Technovation
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